Structure
Cebr's Forecasting and Thought Leadership team delivers forecasts of the British and global economies and a range of economic tracker reports, such as the Irwin Mitchell UK Powerhouse Report, [5] and the Asda Income Tracker. [6]
The Economic Advisory team covers the areas of economic impact analysis, economic simulations, policy analysis, market sizing, and valuations. The team has advised a variety of industries, including tech, energy, [7] maritime, [8] financial services, international trade, manufacturing, engineering, [9] and the arts. [10]
The Environment, Infrastructure and Local Growth team has provided analysis for transport planning [11] and other areas of policy and strategy, including digital connectivity, [12] and housing. [13]
World Economic League Table
Since its first publication in 2009, Cebr's World Economic League Table (WELT) has provided a yearly measure of the comparative economic success of the countries of the world. [14] [15] Released once a year on Boxing Day (26 December), it receives global coverage. [16] [17] [18] [19]
In December 2020, Cebr predicted that China would overtake the United States as the world's biggest economy by 2028. [20] [21]
In December 2021, WELT 2022 saw the world's annual economic output exceeding $100 trillion for the first time during the year ahead. [17]
In December 2022, the WELT report forecast a world recession in 2023. [22] [19] However, at the same time it predicted that India's annual growth trajectory would be 6.4% for five years ahead, then 6.5 per cent during the next nine years, taking India from fifth position in global rankings in 2022 to third position in 2037, after China and the United States. [23]
In December 2022, Cebr also found that in 2022 China's economy had grown by only 3.2 per cent, well below the forecast figures, and attributed this to lockdowns in pursuit of China's Zero-COVID policy. [24]
News releases
In 2009, Cebr issued a news release which stated that "The UK's public sector productivity shortfall is costing taxpayers £58.4 billion a year – in other words, not far short of half our income tax is paying for public sector inefficiency." [25]
In May of the same year, another news release from Cebr stated that since 2007 the number of millionaires in the United Kingdom had halved, falling from 489,000 to 242,000. [26]
In September 2022, Cebr issued a statement critical of HM Treasury in the debate about Kwasi Kwarteng's package of tax cuts in his September mini-budget. This accused the Treasury of "gross exaggeration", particularly on the cost of not implementing a planned increase in United Kingdom corporation tax which would take it to "one of the highest levels in the western world". [27]
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster. There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF.
The economy of the United Kingdom is a highly developed social market economy. It is the sixth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), ninth-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP), and twenty-first by nominal GDP per capita, constituting 3.1% of nominal world GDP. The United Kingdom constituted 2.17% of world GDP by purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2024 estimates.
Australia is a highly developed country with a mixed economy. As of 2023, Australia was the 13th-largest national economy by nominal GDP, the 19th-largest by PPP-adjusted GDP, and was the 21st-largest goods exporter and 24th-largest goods importer. Australia took the record for the longest run of uninterrupted GDP growth in the developed world with the March 2017 financial quarter. It was the 103rd quarter and the 26th year since the country had a technical recession. As of June 2021, the country's GDP was estimated at $1.98 trillion.
Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms.
Lawrence Robert Klein was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks.
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, companies and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled by "Consensus Economics". Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), established in 1938, is Britain's oldest independent economic research institute. The institute is a London-based independent UK registered charity that carries out academic research of relevance to business and policy makers, both nationally and internationally.
The Chinese Century is a neologism suggesting that the 21st century may be geoeconomically or geopolitically dominated by the People's Republic of China, similar to how the "American Century" refers to the 20th century and the "British Century" to the 19th. The phrase is used particularly in association with the idea that the economy of China may overtake the economy of the United States to be the largest in the world. A similar term is China's rise or rise of China.
Sir Vito Antonio Muscatelli is the Principal of the University of Glasgow and one of the United Kingdom's top economists.
The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression.
Beginning in 2008, many nations of the world enacted fiscal stimulus plans in response to the Great Recession. These nations used different combinations of government spending and tax cuts to boost their sagging economies. Most of these plans were based on the Keynesian theory that deficit spending by governments can replace some of the demand lost during a recession and prevent the waste of economic resources idled by a lack of demand. The International Monetary Fund recommended that countries implement fiscal stimulus measures equal to 2% of their GDP to help offset the global contraction. In subsequent years, fiscal consolidation measures were implemented by some countries in an effort to reduce debt and deficit levels while at the same time stimulating economic recovery.
This information is related to the effects of the Great Recession that happened worldwide from 2007 to 2012.
Deficit reduction in the United States refers to taxation, spending, and economic policy debates and proposals designed to reduce the federal government budget deficit. Government agencies including the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the U.S. Treasury Department have reported that the federal government is facing a series of important long-run financing challenges, mainly driven by an aging population, rising healthcare costs per person, and rising interest payments on the national debt.
The Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the London School of Economics dedicated to the study of economic growth and effective ways to create a fair, inclusive and sustainable society. Currently led by Prof. Stephen Machin, it is one of the world's most prestigious economic research institutes, being the most important economic research institute in the United Kingdom, jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Its research performance has been particularly strong in the research areas of labour economics, productivity, happiness economics, human capital, the knowledge economy, ICT, innovation, education, and European microeconomic issues.
The economic effects of Brexit were a major area of debate during and after the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. The majority of economists believe that Brexit has harmed the UK's economy and reduced its real per capita income in the long term, and the referendum itself damaged the economy. It is likely to produce a large decline in immigration from countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) to the UK, and poses challenges for British higher education and academic research.
The Canadian property bubble refers to a significant rise in Canadian real estate prices from 2002 to present. The Dallas Federal Reserve rated Canadian real estate as "exuberant" beginning in 2003. From 2003 to 2018, Canada saw an increase in home and property prices of up to 337% in some cities. In 2016, the OECD warned that Canada's financial stability was at risk due to elevated housing prices, investment and household debt. By 2018, home-owning costs were above 1990 levels when Canada saw its last housing bubble burst. Bloomberg Economics ranked Canada as the second largest housing bubble across the OECD in 2019 and 2021. Toronto scored the highest in the world in Swiss bank UBS' real estate bubble index in 2022, with Vancouver also scoring among the 10 riskiest cities in the world.
Danae Kyriakopoulou is a Greek economist who is currently the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF)'s Chief Economist and Director of Research. Kyriakopoulou is the head of OMFIF's economic staff, providing leadership and direction in the economic research agenda. She is fluent in English, German, Greek, and Spanish. Kyriakopoulou is a macroeconomist who often is asked to speaker and contributor for international publications, conferences and the media.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused far-reaching economic consequences including the COVID-19 recession, the second largest global recession in recent history, decreased business in the services sector during the COVID-19 lockdowns, the 2020 stock market crash, the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets, the 2021–2023 global supply chain crisis, the 2021–2023 inflation surge, shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic including the 2020–present global chip shortage, panic buying, and price gouging. The pandemic led to governments providing an unprecedented amount of stimulus, and was also a factor in the 2021–2022 global energy crisis and 2022–2023 food crises.
Constance L. Hunter is an American chief economist and macroeconomics analyst. She is a former principal and chief economist at KPMG, and has served as president of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). A member of several think tanks, including the Council on Foreign Relations, she is among the first economists to forecast various historic economic events, including the 2001 dot-com bubble, the 2007–2008 mortgage and credit crisis, and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Douglas Francis McWilliams is a British economic consultant, specializing in forecasting and the technology sector.
