Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States

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The Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, also called the Rumsfeld Commission, [1] was an independent commission formed by the US Congress to evaluate the ballistic missile threat posed to the United States.

Ballistic missile missile that follows a sub-orbital ballistic flightpath

A ballistic missile follows a ballistic trajectory to deliver one or more warheads on a predetermined target. These weapons are only guided during relatively brief periods of flight—most of their trajectory is unpowered, being governed by gravity and air resistance if in the atmosphere. Shorter range ballistic missiles stay within the Earth's atmosphere, while longer-ranged intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), are launched on a sub-orbital flight trajectory and spend most of their flight out of the atmosphere.

Contents

The group began work in January 1998 and issued their unanimous final report on July 15, 1998, within the six-month mandate. The report warned of a growing threat of ballistic missiles and the inability for US intelligence to keep track of developments. This contrasted with the views of previous US intelligence estimates, which stated that the threat of ballistic missiles was still 10 to 20 years away. [1] The commission further fueled the debate over a national missile defense system, and may have contributed to the coining of the phrase axis of evil.

United States Intelligence Community Collective term for U.S. intelligence and security agencies

The United States Intelligence Community (IC) is a federation of 16 separate United States government intelligence agencies and a 17th administrative office, that work separately and together to conduct intelligence activities to support the foreign policy and national security of the United States. Member organizations of the IC include intelligence agencies, military intelligence, and civilian intelligence and analysis offices within federal executive departments. The IC is overseen by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) making up the seventeen-member Intelligence Community, which itself is headed by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), who reports to the President of the United States.

Axis of evil group of countries identified collectively as enemies by U.S. President George W. Bush during the 2000s

The phrase "axis of evil" was first used by U.S. President George W. Bush in his State of the Union address on January 29, 2002, and often repeated throughout his presidency, to describe foreign governments that, during his administration, sponsored terrorism and sought weapons of mass destruction. The notion of such an axis was used to pinpoint these common enemies of the United States and rally the American populace in support of the War on Terror. The term was later used by economist Paul Krugman, arguing that "[t]here's a new axis of evil: Russia, Saudi Arabia — and the United States", as the three countries all declined to endorse the United Nation's latest climate study at the 2018 United Nations Climate Change Conference.

The use of Scud missile designs for future long-range weapons was a primary concern of the commission. Rakieta wz8K-14 SCUD RB.jpg
The use of Scud missile designs for future long-range weapons was a primary concern of the commission.

Background

The argument for a national missile defense system in the United States was traditionally to protect the country from a Soviet missile attack. With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, proponents of a missile defense shield began instead to focus on the risk posed by rogue states developing ballistic missiles capable of eventually reaching the US. [2]

Soviet Union 1922–1991 country in Europe and Asia

The Soviet Union, officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), was a socialist state in Eurasia that existed from 30 December 1922 to 26 December 1991. Nominally a union of multiple national Soviet republics, its government and economy were highly centralized. The country was a one-party state, governed by the Communist Party with Moscow as its capital in its largest republic, the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. Other major urban centres were Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk, Alma-Ata, and Novosibirsk. It spanned over 10,000 kilometres east to west across 11 time zones, and over 7,200 kilometres north to south. It had five climate zones: tundra, taiga, steppes, desert and mountains.

Rogue state or outlaw state is a term applied by some international theorists to states they consider threatening to the world's peace. This means being seen to meet certain criteria, such as being ruled by authoritarian or totalitarian governments that severely restrict human rights, sponsoring terrorism and seeking to proliferate weapons of mass destruction. The term is used most by the United States, and in his speech at the United Nations (UN) in 2017, Donald Trump reiterated this phrase. However, it has been applied by other countries as well.

This case was blunted by a 1995 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which stated that no country besides the five major nuclear powers was capable of acquiring missiles that could reach Canada or the contiguous United States within the ensuing 15 years. [2] Republican lawmakers intent on funding a defensive shield criticized the report and the Clinton administration for inaccurate assessments and distorted intelligence. Republican Congressman Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania walked out of a CIA briefing on the NIE, and later said that it was "the most outrageous politicisation of an intelligence document that I've seen in the 10 years I've been in Washington." [3]

National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on intelligence related to a particular national security issue. NIEs are produced by the National Intelligence Council and express the coordinated judgments of the United States Intelligence Community, the group of 17 U.S. intelligence agencies. NIEs are classified documents prepared for policymakers.

Bill Clinton 42nd president of the United States

William Jefferson Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Prior to the presidency, he was the governor of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981, and again from 1983 to 1992, and the attorney general of Arkansas from 1977 to 1979. A member of the Democratic Party, Clinton was ideologically a New Democrat and many of his policies reflected a centrist "Third Way" political philosophy.

Curt Weldon American politician

Wayne Curtis "Curt" Weldon is an American politician. He served as a Republican member of the United States House of Representatives from 1987 to 2007, representing the 7th district of Pennsylvania. He was defeated in November 2006 for reelection by Joe Sestak. Weldon was vice-chair of the Armed Services Committee and the House Homeland Security Committee. He was also the co-chair of the Duma-Congress Study Group, the official inter-parliamentary relationship between the United States and Russia.

From February to May 1996, the House National Security Committee held hearings on the ballistic missile threat, and in a final report recommended that two reviews be created: one to investigate the NIE itself, and another to complete a new investigation of the ballistic missile threat. This process was also highly politicized, and the ranking Democrat on the committee, California Congressman Ronald Dellums, accused it of relying far too heavily on outside experts. Many of the witnesses called before the committee were in fact strong proponents of missile defense. [3] The first review was conducted by former Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) and future Defense Secretary Robert Gates. He concluded that while there was evidence of faulty methodology in the NIE, there was no political bias in its conclusions. [4] This conclusion again angered the missile defense supporters who had counted on this review to further their arguments. [3]

United States House Committee on Armed Services Standing committee of the United States House of Representatives responsible for funding and oversight of the Department of Defense (DOD) and the United States armed forces, as well as substantial portions of the Department of Energy.

The U.S. House Committee on Armed Services, commonly known as the House Armed Services Committee, is a standing committee of the United States House of Representatives. It is responsible for funding and oversight of the Department of Defense (DOD) and the United States armed forces, as well as substantial portions of the Department of Energy.

California State of the United States of America

California is a state in the Pacific Region of the United States. With 39.6 million residents, California is the most populous U.S. state and the third-largest by area. The state capital is Sacramento. The Greater Los Angeles Area and the San Francisco Bay Area are the nation's second and fifth most populous urban regions, with 18.7 million and 9.7 million residents respectively. Los Angeles is California's most populous city, and the country's second most populous, after New York City. California also has the nation's most populous county, Los Angeles County, and its largest county by area, San Bernardino County. The City and County of San Francisco is both the country's second-most densely populated major city after New York City and the fifth-most densely populated county, behind only four of the five New York City boroughs.

Director of Central Intelligence former office of the head of the United States Central Intelligence Agency

The Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) was the head of the American Central Intelligence Agency from 1946 to 2005, acting as the principal intelligence advisor to the President of the United States and the United States National Security Council, as well as the coordinator of intelligence activities among and between the various U.S. intelligence agencies.

Commission history

The second review was to be conducted by an outside commission, although it took lawmakers until 1997 to agree upon the commission's membership. The commission eventually began to meet in mid-January 1998 in the Old Executive Office Building and under the chairmanship of the once and future Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld. Although the commission was not formed to investigate the feasibility of a national missile defense shield, the reality that their conclusions would influence that debate led many in Washington to doubt that a unanimous conclusion was possible. [5] Rumsfeld still wished to reach a consensus, and instituted a policy whereby any noted objection in the report needed to have the support of at least two commissioners. [6]

Donald Rumsfeld U.S. Secretary of Defense

Donald Henry Rumsfeld is a retired American political figure and businessman. Rumsfeld served as Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 under Gerald Ford, and again from January 2001 to December 2006 under George W. Bush. He is both the youngest and the second-oldest person to have served as Secretary of Defense. Additionally, Rumsfeld was a three-term U.S. Congressman from Illinois (1963–1969), Director of the Office of Economic Opportunity (1969–1970), Counsellor to the President (1969–1973), the United States Permanent Representative to NATO (1973–1974), and White House Chief of Staff (1974–1975). Between his terms as Secretary of Defense, he was a highly successful businessman, serving as the CEO and chairman of several companies.

The first weeks of deliberations and testimonies gleaned little new information on the threat being investigated, so in mid-February, with their mandate supposedly giving them access to all necessary information from the executive branch, the commission complained in person to then DCI George Tenet. From that point on, the commission gained much greater access to the information and personnel of the US intelligence community. [7]

The commission continued briefings until mid-July 1998. During that time they were frustrated by the compartmentalization of intelligence, [8] the refusal of analysts to speculate or hypothesize on given information, and what they considered general inexperience in the intelligence personnel. [9] The group did not limit their interviews to members of the government, but also spoke with employees of Boeing and Lockheed Martin, especially about how Scud missile designs could be used as the basis for a long-range ballistic missile program. [10]

Conclusions

There were two final reports of the commission: a 300-page classified report for Congress and a 27-page unclassified report. [11] In the unclassified version, the group came to four unanimous conclusions:

Aftermath

Immediate

The findings of the commission generated mixed reactions among lawmakers, intelligence officers, and experts. The intelligence community was privately angered by the harsh language the report used to describe their own assessments of the threat, although CIA Director George Tenet did not openly criticize it in public. [13] Congressional proponents of a national missile shield, especially Republicans, used the findings to further push their case that such a shield was necessary. [14] However, some experts in and out of government questioned the usefulness of the report, saying that it made general speculations without reaching any definite conclusions. [15] Whereas the intelligence estimate focused on what was actually occurring, the commission focused on what might occur. This was labeled in one article "'hypothesis-based' threat assessment". [3]

Many observers took a moderate tone in their reaction, acknowledging that funding should be provided for further national missile defense tests, but also saying that the US should not rush into developing technology that might prove ineffective and too costly. [16]

Within months of the final report several events occurred which to some supporters reinforced the commission's conclusions. In late July, Iran tested for the first time its new Shahab-3 missile, which traveled 620 miles (1,000 km) before exploding. Its basic design was modeled on the North Korean Rodong-1. [17] [18] North Korea launched what it described as a three-stage satellite launch on August 31 of that year, a surprise for US intelligence, which had expected a test of the two-stage Taepodong-1 (partially based on the Scud). While the third stage failed, it was nonetheless a major development in that introduced stage separation and solid fuel in North Korean rocketry. [19]

Bush Administration

The commission reentered the public consciousness in 2000 when the former chairman of the commission, Donald Rumsfeld, was named by newly elected President George W. Bush to be Secretary of Defense, his second time in that office. On December 30, 2000, Richard Garwin, a former commissioner, praised Rumsfeld for his commission work in a New York Times op-ed piece, although he reiterated that the commission never suggested whether or not the US should build a missile defense system. [20] Other staffers and members of the commission were also appointed by the new Bush administration: Paul Wolfowitz was named Deputy Secretary of Defense, William Schneider, Jr. was appointed by Rumsfeld to the Defense Science Board, and in March 2003 Stephen Cambone was selected by Rumsfeld to fill the newly created Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence position. Robert Gates, the man who conducted the first review of the ballistic missile threat, was appointed Secretary of Defense after Rumsfeld's November 2006 resignation.

The commission is thought by some foreign policy analysts to be the basis for President George W. Bush's axis of evil line in his 2002 State of the Union Address, in which he accused Iraq, Iran, and North Korea of being state sponsors of terrorism and of pursuing weapons of mass destruction. [21] The Rumsfeld Commission grouped the three countries together because they all were believed to be pursuing ballistic missile programs based on the Scud missile. In the pre-9/11 days of the Bush presidency, the administration had focused heavily on developing a national missile defense system to counter such threats. A month after the address, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who appointed Rumsfeld as head of the commission, mentioned the importance of the commission's findings in relation to the US ability to predict the threat posed by the axis members. [22]

Participants

The commission was chaired by former Secretary of Defense and Republican Donald Rumsfeld, and included the following members:

Republicans

Democrats

Core Staff

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 "Rumsfeld Commission Report on Missile Threat". The Literature of Intelligence: A Bibliography of Materials, with Essays, Reviews, and Comments, Muskingum College. Archived from the original on December 3, 2008. Retrieved 2010-01-25.
  2. 1 2 Graham, 32.
  3. 1 2 3 4 Ryan, Maria (July 2004). "The Rumsfeld Commission: Filling in the "unknown unknowns". Nthposition. Archived from the original on 2012-02-05. Retrieved 2010-01-25.
  4. ↑ Graham, 34.
  5. ↑ Graham, 35.
  6. ↑ Graham, 36.
  7. ↑ Graham, 37.
  8. ↑ Because classified intelligence was not widely distributed in the intelligence community, the commission found that many of the people they interviewed were unaware of other relevant information.
  9. ↑ Graham, 37-39
  10. ↑ Graham, 43-33
  11. ↑ Schmitt, Eric (1998-07-16). "Panel Says U.S. Faces Risk Of a Surprise Missile Attack". The New York Times . Retrieved 2010-01-25.
  12. 1 2 3 4 Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
  13. ↑ Graham, 48-9
  14. ↑ Graham, 48.
  15. ↑ Graham, 49.
  16. ↑ "The Rumsfeld Commission - Where Do We Go From Here? Archived 2007-12-09 at the Wayback Machine .", Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, August 4, 1998. Retrieved November 30, 2006.
  17. ↑ Shahab-3 / Zelzal-3, Federation of American Scientists. Retrieved November 1, 2006.
  18. ↑ DECLARATION OF POLICY OF THE UNITED STATES CONCERNING NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT, 106th Congress US House of Representatives. Retrieved November 1, 2006.
  19. ↑ "North Korea Missile Update - 1998". The Risk Report. Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. 4 (6). November–December 1998. Archived from the original on 2013-04-20. Retrieved 2010-01-24.
  20. ↑ Garwin, Richard L. "Count on Rumsfeld, Not the Missile Shield", The New York Times, December 30, 2000.
  21. ↑ Bronson, Rachel (2002-03-01). "The American Surprise". Council on Foreign Relations . Retrieved 2010-01-25.
  22. ↑ "Speech to the Melbourne 500 Club". Newt.org. 2002-02-28. Archived from the original on 2006-08-07. Retrieved 2010-01-24.

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