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Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) is a forecasting methodology used to estimate the impact of various marketing tactic scenarios on product sales. MMMs use statistical models, such as multivariate regressions, and use sales and marketing time-series data. They are often used to optimize advertising mix and promotional tactics with respect to sales, revenue, or profit to maximize their return on investment.
Using these statistical techniques allows marketers to account for advertising adstock and advertising's diminishing return over time, and also to account for carry-over effects and impact of past advertisements on the current sales campaign. Moreover, MMMs are able to calculate the magnitude of product cannibalization and halo effect. [1]
The techniques were developed by specialized consulting companies along with academics and were first applied to consumer packaged goods, since manufacturers of those goods had access to accurate data on sales and marketing support.[ citation needed ] Improved availability of data, massively greater computing power, and the pressure to measure and optimize marketing spend has driven the explosion in popularity as a marketing tool.[ citation needed ] In recent times MMM has found acceptance as a trustworthy marketing tool among the major consumer marketing companies.
Underlying MMMs is the concept of marketing mix, which is defined as the set of variables that a company can change to meet the demands of their customers. The term was developed by Neil Borden, who claims to have started using the phrase in around 1949 for his teaching and writing. [2] He credits his colleague James Culliton for the idea of a "marketing mix" from portraying an executive as the following:
An executive is a mixer of ingredients, who sometimes follows a recipe as he goes along, sometimes adapts a recipe to the ingredients immediately available, and sometimes experiments with or invents ingredients no one else has tried. [3]
Moreover, according to Borden, the marketing manager has to "weigh the behavioral forces and then juggle marketing elements in his mix with a keen eye on the resources with which he has to work." [2]
These marketing mix "ingredients" were further described by E. Jerome McCarthy, who was first to suggest the four P's of marketing: [4]
According to McCarthy, the marketers essentially have these four variables which they can use while creating a marketing plan and strategy. In the long term, all four of the mix variables can be changed, but in the short term, it is difficult to modify the product or the distribution channel.
In the 1980s, Bernard Booms and Mary Bitner built a model consisting of seven P's. [5] They added "people" to the list of existing variables, in order to recognize the importance of the human element in all aspects of marketing. They added "process" to reflect the fact that services, unlike physical products, are experienced as a process at the time that they are purchased.
Marketing mix modeling (MMM) is an analytical approach that uses historic information to quantify impact of marketing activities on sales. Example information that can be used are syndicated point-of-sale data (aggregated collection of product retail sales activity across a chosen set of parameters, like category of product or geographic market) and companies’ internal data. Mathematically, this is done by establishing a simultaneous relation of various marketing activities with sales using a linear or a non-linear regression equation. MMM defines the effectiveness of each of the marketing elements by its contribution to sales-volume, effectiveness (volume generated by each unit of effort), efficiency (sales volume generated divided by cost), and return on investment (ROI). These insights help adjust marketing tactics and strategies, optimize the marketing spend, and forecast sales while simulating various scenarios. [1]
The output can be used to analyze the impact of the marketing elements on various dimensions. The contribution of each element as a percentage of the total plotted year on year is an indicator of how the effectiveness of various elements changes over time. The yearly change in contribution is also measured by a due-to analysis which shows what percentage of the change in total sales is attributable to each of the elements. For activities like television advertising and trade promotions, more sophisticated analysis like effectiveness can be carried out. This analysis tells the marketing manager the incremental gain in sales that can be obtained by increasing the respective marketing element by one unit. If detailed spend information per activity is available, then it is possible to calculate the ROI of the marketing activity. Not only is this useful for reporting the historical effectiveness of the activity, but it also helps in optimizing the marketing budget by identifying the most and least efficient marketing activities.
Once the final model is ready, the results from it can be used to simulate marketing scenarios for a ‘What-if’ analysis. The marketing managers can reallocate this marketing budget in different proportions and see the direct impact on sales/value. They can optimize the budget by allocating spends to those activities which give the highest return on investment.
An MMM is set up with a statistical model with the sales volume/value as the dependent variable while the independent variables are the various marketing efforts. [1] The model decomposes total sales into two components: [6]
Marketing-mix analyses are typically carried out using linear regression modeling. Nonlinear and lagged effects are included using techniques like advertising adstock transformations. Typical output of such analyses includes a decomposition of total annual sales into contributions from each marketing component, like a contribution pie-chart. Once the variables are created, multiple iterations are carried out to create a model which explains the volume/value trends well. Further validations are carried out, either by using a validation data, or by the consistency of the business results.
Another standard output is a decomposition of year-over year sales growth and decline ("due-to charts").
The decomposition of sales volume into base (volume that would be generated in absence of any marketing activity) and incremental (volume generated by marketing activities in the short run) across time can isolate the variation in the base volume as an indicator brand strength and customer loyalty.
Market mix modeling can determine the sales impact generated by individual media such as television, magazine, and online display ads. In some cases it can be used to determine the impact of individual advertising campaigns or even ad executions upon sales. For example, for TV advertising activity, it is possible to examine how each ad execution has performed in the market in terms of its impact on sales volume. MMM can also provide information on TV correlations at different media weight levels, as measured by gross rating points (GRP) in relation to sales volume response within a time frame, be it a week or a month. Information can also be gained on the minimum level of GRPs (threshold limit) in a week that need to be aired in order to make an impact, and conversely, the level of GRPs at which the impact on volume maximizes (saturation limit) and that the further activity does not have any payback. While not all MMM's will be able to produce definitive answers to all questions, some additional areas in which insights can sometimes be gained include: 1) the effectiveness of 15-second vis-à-vis 30-second executions; 2) comparisons in ad performance when run during prime-time vis-à-vis off-prime-time dayparts; 3) comparisons into the direct and the halo effect of TV activity across various products or sub-brands. The role of new product based TV activity and the equity based TV activity in growing the brand can also be compared. GRP's are converted into reach (i.e. GRPs are divided by the average frequency to get the percentage of people actually watching the advertisement). This is a better measure for modeling TV.
Trade promotion is a key activity in every marketing plan. It is aimed at increasing sales in the short term by employing promotion schemes which effectively increases the customer awareness of the business and its products. The response of consumers to trade promotions is not straight forward and is the subject of much debate. Non-linear models exist to simulate the response. Using MMM we can understand the impact of trade promotion at generating incremental volumes. It is possible to obtain an estimate of the volume generated per promotion event in each of the different retail outlets by region. This way we can identify the most and least effective trade channels. If detailed spend information is available we can compare the Return on Investment of various trade activities like Every Day Low Price, Off-Shelf Display. We can use this information to optimize the trade plan by choosing the most effective trade channels and targeting the most effective promotion activity.
Price increases of the brand impact the sales volume negatively. This effect can be captured through modeling the price in MMM. The model provides the price elasticity of the brand which tells us the percentage change in the sales for each percentage change in price. Using this, the marketing manager can evaluate the impact of a price change decision.
For the element of distribution, we can know how the volume will move by changing distribution efforts or, in other words, by each percentage shift in the width or the depth of distribution. This can be identified specifically for each channel and even for each kind of outlet for off-take sales. In view of these insights, the distribution efforts can be prioritized for each channel or store-type to get the maximum out of the same. A recent study of a laundry brand showed that the incremental volume through 1% more presence in a neighborhood Kirana store is 180% greater than that through 1% more presence in a supermarket. [7] Based upon the cost of such efforts, managers identified the right channel to invest more for distribution.
When a new product is launched, the associated publicity and promotions typically results in higher volume generation than expected. This extra volume cannot be completely captured in the model using the existing variables. Often special variables to capture this incremental effect of launches are used. The combined contribution of these variables and that of the marketing effort associated with the launch will give the total launch contribution. Different launches can be compared by calculating their effectiveness and ROI.
The impact of competition on the brand sales is captured by creating the competition variables accordingly. The variables are created from the marketing activities of the competition like television advertising, trade promotions, product launches etc. The results from the model can be used to identify the biggest threat to own brand sales from competition. The cross-price elasticity and the cross-promotional elasticity can be used to devise appropriate response to competition tactics. A successful competitive campaign can be analysed to learn valuable lesson for the own brand.
Television & Broadcasting: The application of MMM can also be applied in the broadcast media. Broadcasters may want to know what determine whether a particular will be sponsored. This could depend on the presenter attributes, the content, and the time the program is aired. these will therefore form the independent variables in our quest to design a program salability function. Program salability is a function of the presenter attributes, the program content and the time the program is aired.
"Marketing mix modeling" is often used interchangeably with "media mix modeling". However, while related and similar in using a statistical model, they differ in focus. [8] [9] Media mix modeling focuses on the impact of different media channels marketing teams use on business outcomes. Such media channels include television, digital, and print media. Generally, these are paid advertising efforts. [10] For example, a media mix model can help understand and optimize allocation on television spend to improve sales. In contrast, marketing mix modeling is a broader approach that uses all marketing mix elements, such as media channels, product promotions, pricing, distribution, public relations, sponsorships, coupons, and in-store events. [10] This kind of model can be used to make informed decisions on marketing strategy.
MMMs are comparable to another method called multi-touch attribution (MTA). In contrast to MMMs, the goal of multi-touch attribution is to measure the impact of marketing activities at a granular levels instead of in aggregate. The core question that MTA answers is, "What is the expected change in propensity to convert that was the result of an impression (or any form of interaction with the customer)?". In contrast, the equivalent questions for MMMs are, "What was the return on ad spend on mobile last year?" and "What would sales be if we shift 10% of the budget allocation to addressable TV?" [11]
Some users of MMM and MTA claim they are used for different purposes, and can have conflicting results. Moreover, the differences between the two methodologies can lead companies to have separate teams to own each measurement method. Although there are efforts to unify the two methods, this increases the complexity for planning and implementation. [11]
Typical MMM studies provide the following insights
Many Fortune 500 companies that are largely consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, such as P&G, [12] AT&T, Kraft, Coca-Cola, Hershey, and Pepsi, have made MMM an integral part of their marketing planning. [1] This has also been made possible due to the availability of specialist firms that are now providing MMM services.
Marketing mix models were more popular initially in the CPG industry and quickly spread to retail and pharmaceutical industries because of the availability of syndicated data in these industries. The pioneers using this in full-scale commercial application were Marketing Management Analytics (MMA) in 1990 and Hudson River Group in 1989.[ citation needed ] Later, data companies Nielsen and IRI started bundling an MMM as part of their standard data contracts, which led to these initial companies to branch out to other verticals.
Availability of time-series data is crucial to robust modeling of marketing-mix effects. The systematic management of customer data through CRM systems in other industries like telecommunications, financial services, automotive and hospitality industries helped its spread to these industries. In addition, data availability through third-party sources like Forrester Research's Ultimate Consumer Panel (financial services), Polk Insights (automotive) and Smith Travel Research (hospitality), further enhanced the application of marketing-mix modeling to these industries.
Application of marketing-mix modeling to these industries is still in a nascent stage and a lot of standardization needs to be brought about especially in these areas:[ citation needed ]
The proliferation of marketing-mix modeling was also accelerated due to the focus from Sarbanes-Oxley Section 404 that required internal controls for financial reporting on significant expenses and outlays. Marketing for consumer goods can be in excess of a 10th of total revenues and until the advent of marketing-mix models, relied on qualitative or 'soft' approaches to evaluate this spend. Marketing-mix modeling presented a rigorous and consistent approach to evaluate marketing-mix investments as the CPG industry had already demonstrated. A study by American Marketing Association pointed out that top management was more likely to stress the importance of marketing accountability than middle management, suggesting a top-down push towards greater accountability.
The landscape of marketing analytics has been reshaped by the advent of Bayesian Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), which uses a probabilistic approach to manage uncertainty and integrate historical data into current analysis. This methodology contrasts to traditional frequentist methods, providing marketers with a nuanced view of consumer behavior and the effectiveness of marketing efforts.
The wider adoption of Bayesian approaches to MMM has been significantly propelled by open-source initiatives.[ citation needed ] Notable among these are tools like PyMC-Marketing and LightweightMMM. These platforms use techniques, such as adstock transformations and the modeling of saturation effects, which help in optimizing marketing budgets and strategies.
Bayesian MMM is characterized by several key innovations:
Bayesian MMM, while growing in popularity, does present certain challenges, notably the need for a deep understanding of Bayesian statistics and the computational demands it places on organizations. The open-source nature of tools such as PyMC-Marketing, however, helps alleviate these barriers by fostering a supportive community and resource sharing.
Here are some other challenges to consider: [13]
In contrast, there are opportunities to improve the reliability of MMMs: [13]
While marketing mix models provide much useful information, there are two key areas in which these models have limitations that should be taken into account by all of those that use these models for decision making purposes. These limitations, discussed more fully below, include:
In relation to the bias against equity building activities, marketing budgets optimized using marketing-mix models may tend too much towards efficiency because marketing-mix models measure only the short-term effects of marketing. Longer term effects of marketing are reflected in its brand equity. The impact of marketing spend on [brand equity] is usually not captured by marketing-mix models. One reason is that the longer duration that marketing takes to impact brand perception extends beyond the simultaneous or, at best, weeks-ahead impact of marketing on sales that these models measure. The other reason is that temporary fluctuation in sales due to economic and social conditions do not necessarily mean that marketing has been ineffective in building brand equity. On the contrary, it is very possible that in the short term sales and market-share could deteriorate, but brand equity could actually be higher. This higher equity should in the long run help the brand recover sales and market-share.
Because marketing-mix models suggest a marketing tactic has a positive impact on sales doesn't necessarily mean it has a positive impact on long-term brand equity. Different marketing measures impact short-term and long-term brand sales differently and adjusting the marketing portfolio to maximize either the short-term or the long-term alone will be sub-optimal. For example, the short-term positive effect of promotions on consumers’ utility induces consumers to switch to the promoted brand, but the adverse impact of promotions on brand equity carries over from period to period. Therefore, the net effect of promotions on a brand’s market share and profitability can be negative due to their adverse impact on brand. Determining marketing ROI on the basis of marketing-mix models alone can lead to misleading results. This is because marketing-mix attempts to optimize marketing-mix to increase incremental contribution, but marketing-mix also drives brand-equity, which is not part of the incremental part measured by marketing-mix model- it is part of the baseline. True 'Return on Marketing Investment' is a sum of short-term and long-term ROI. The fact that most firms use marketing-mix models only to measure the short-term ROI can be inferred from an article by Booz Allen Hamilton, which suggests that there is a significant shift away from traditional media to 'below-the-line' spending, driven by the fact that promotional spending is easier to measure. But academic studies have shown that promotional activities are in fact detrimental to long-term marketing ROI (Ataman et al., 2006). Short-term marketing-mix models can be combined with brand-equity models using brand-tracking data to measure 'brand ROI', in both the short- and long-term. Finally, the modeling process itself should not be more costly than the resulting gain in profitability; i.e. it should have a positive Return On Modeling Effort (ROME). [14]
The second limitation of marketing mix models comes into play when advertisers attempt to use these models to determine the best media allocation across different media types. The traditional use of MMM's to compare money spent on TV versus money spent on couponing was relatively valid in that both TV commercials and the appearance of coupons (for example, in a FSI run in a newspaper) were both quite time specific. However, as the use of these models has been expanded into comparisons across a wider range of media types, extreme caution should be used.
Even with traditional media such as magazine advertising, the use of MMM's to compare results across media can be problematic; while the modelers overlay models of the 'typical' viewing curves of monthly magazines, these lack in precision, and thus introduce additional variability into the equation. Thus, comparisons of the effectiveness of running a TV commercial versus the effectiveness of running a magazine ad would be biased in favor of TV, with its greater precision of measurement. As new forms of media proliferate, these limitations become even more important to consider if MMM's are to be used in attempts to quantify their effectiveness. For example, Sponsorship Marketing, Sports Affinity Marketing, Viral Marketing, Blog Marketing and Mobile Marketing all vary in terms of the time-specificity of exposure.
Further, most approaches to marketing-mix models try to include all marketing activities in aggregate at the national or regional level, but to the extent that various tactics are targeted to different demographic consumer groups, their impact may be lost. For example, Mountain Dew sponsorship of NASCAR may be targeted to NASCAR fans, which may include multiple age groups, but Mountain Dew advertising on gaming blogs may be targeted to the Gen Y population. Both of these tactics may be highly effective within the corresponding demographic groups but, when included in aggregate in a national or regional marketing-mix model, may come up as ineffective.
Aggregation bias, along with issues relating to variations in the time-specific natures of different media, pose serious problems when these models are used in ways beyond those for which they were originally designed. As media become even more fragmented, it is critical that these issues are taken into account if marketing-mix models are used to judge the relative effectiveness of different media and tactics.
Marketing-mix models use historical performance to evaluate marketing performance and so are not an effective tool to manage marketing investments for new products. This is because the relatively short history of new products make marketing-mix results unstable. Also relationship between marketing and sales may be radically different in the launch and stable periods. For example, the initial performance of Coke Zero was really poor and showed low advertising elasticity. In spite of this Coke increased its media spend, with an improved strategy and radically improved its performance resulting in advertising effectiveness that is probably several times the effectiveness during the launch period. A typical marketing-mix model would have recommended cutting media spend and instead resorting to heavy price discounting.
Marketing is the act of satisfying and retaining customers. It is one of the primary components of business management and commerce.
Marketing research is the systematic gathering, recording, and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data about issues relating to marketing products and services. The goal is to identify and assess how changing elements of the marketing mix impacts customer behavior.
Brand equity, in marketing, is the worth of a brand in and of itself – i.e., the social value of a well-known brand name. The owner of a well-known brand name can generate more revenue simply from brand recognition, as consumers perceive the products of well-known brands as better than those of lesser-known brands.
Multichannel marketing is the blending of different distribution and promotional channels for the purpose of marketing. Distribution channels include a retail storefront, a website, or a mail-order catalogue.
Marketing communications refers to the use of different marketing channels and tools in combination. Marketing communication channels focus on how businesses communicate a message to their desired market, or the market in general. It is also in charge of the internal communications of the organization. Marketing communication tools include advertising, personal selling, direct marketing, sponsorship, communication, public relations, social media, customer journey and promotion.
Advertising management is how a company carefully plans and controls its advertising to reach its ideal customers and convince them to buy.
In marketing, promotion refers to any type of marketing communication used to inform target audiences of the relative merits of a product, service, brand or issue, persuasively. It helps marketers to create a distinctive place in customers' mind, it can be either a cognitive or emotional route. The aim of promotion is to increase brand awareness, create interest, generate sales or create brand loyalty. It is one of the basic elements of the market mix, which includes the four Ps, i.e., product, price, place, and promotion.
An advertising campaign or marketing campaign is a series of advertisement messages that share a single idea and theme which make up an integrated marketing communication (IMC). An IMC is a platform in which a group of people can group their ideas, beliefs, and concepts into one large media base. Advertising campaigns utilize diverse media channels over a particular time frame and target identified audiences.
Advertising adstock or advertising carry-over is the prolonged or lagged effect of advertising on consumer purchase behavior. Adstock is an important component of marketing-mix models. The term "adstock" was coined by Simon Broadbent. Adstock is a model of how the response to advertising builds and decays in consumer markets. Advertising tries to expand consumption in two ways; it both reminds and teaches. It reminds in-the-market consumers in order to influence their immediate brand choice and teaches them to increase brand awareness and salience, which makes it easier for future advertising to influence brand choice. Adstock is the mathematical manifestation of this behavioral process.
The target audience is the intended audience or readership of a publication, advertisement, or other message catered specifically to the previously intended audience. In marketing and advertising, the target audience is a particular group of consumer within the predetermined target market, identified as the targets or recipients for a particular advertisement or message.
Marketing effectiveness is the measure of how effective a given marketer's go to market strategy is toward meeting the goal of maximizing their spending to achieve positive results in both the short- and long-term. It is also related to marketing ROI and return on marketing investment (ROMI). In today's competitive business environment, effective marketing strategies play a pivotal role in promoting products or services to target audiences. The advent of digital platforms has further intensified competition among businesses, making it imperative for companies to employ innovative and impactful marketing techniques. This essay examines how various types of advertising methods can be utilized effectively to reach out to potential consumers
Advertising research is a systematic process of marketing research conducted to improve the efficiency of advertising. Advertising research is a detailed study conducted to know how customers respond to a particular ad or advertising campaign.
Ad tracking, also known as post-testing or ad effectiveness tracking, is in-market research that monitors a brand’s performance including brand and advertising awareness, product trial and usage, and attitudes about the brand versus their competition.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to marketing:
Digital marketing is the component of marketing that uses the Internet and online-based digital technologies such as desktop computers, mobile phones, and other digital media and platforms to promote products and services. It has significantly transformed the way brands and businesses utilize technology for marketing since the 1990s and 2000s. As digital platforms became increasingly incorporated into marketing plans and everyday life, and as people increasingly used digital devices instead of visiting physical shops, digital marketing campaigns have become prevalent, employing combinations of search engine optimization (SEO), search engine marketing (SEM), content marketing, influencer marketing, content automation, campaign marketing, data-driven marketing, e-commerce marketing, social media marketing, social media optimization, e-mail direct marketing, display advertising, e-books, and optical disks and games have become commonplace. Digital marketing extends to non-Internet channels that provide digital media, such as television, mobile phones, callbacks, and on-hold mobile ringtones. The extension to non-Internet channels differentiates digital marketing from online marketing.
Return on marketing investment (ROMI) is the contribution to profit attributable to marketing, divided by the marketing 'invested' or risked. ROMI is not like the other 'return-on-investment' (ROI) metrics because marketing is not the same kind of investment. Instead of money that is 'tied' up in plants and inventories, marketing funds are typically 'risked'. Marketing spending is typically expensed in the current period.
Brand awareness is the extent to which customers are able to recall or recognize a brand under different conditions. Brand awareness is one of two dimensions from brand knowledge, an associative network memory model. It is a key consideration in consumer behavior, advertising management, and brand management. The consumer's ability to recognize or recall a brand is central to purchasing decision-making because purchasing cannot proceed unless a consumer is first aware of a product category and a brand within that category. Awareness does not necessarily mean that the consumer must be able to recall a specific brand name, but they must be able to recall enough distinguishing features for purchasing to proceed. Creating brand awareness is the main step in advertising a new product or bringing back the older brand in light.
A target market, also known as serviceable obtainable market (SOM), is a group of customers within a business's serviceable available market at which a business aims its marketing efforts and resources. A target market is a subset of the total market for a product or service.
Trade promotion forecasting (TPF) is the process that attempts to discover multiple correlations between trade promotion characteristics and historic demand in order to provide accurate demand forecasting for future campaigns. The ability to distinguish the uplift or demand due to the impact of the trade promotion as opposed to baseline demand is fundamental to model promotion behavior. Model determination enables what-if analysis to evaluate different campaign scenarios with the goal of improving promotion effectiveness and ROI at the product-channel level by selecting the best scenario.
Rex Briggs is an author, award winning marketing ROI researcher. He began his career at Yankelovich Partners, where he was noted for his work in Generation X Minority marketing. While at Yankelovich, he is noted for developing a theory called “The Psychology of disenfranchisement.” Briggs was among the first to research the Internet.