Michael W. Traugott | |
---|---|
Nationality | American |
Alma mater | University of Michigan Princeton University |
Scientific career | |
Fields | Political science, communication studies |
Institutions | University of Michigan |
Michael Wolfe Traugott is an American political scientist, communication studies researcher, and political pundit. [1] As of 2022, he is a Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and adjunct research professor at UM's Institute for Social Research, Center for Political Studies.
Traugott finished his undergraduate education at Princeton University and completed a Master's degree and PhD at the University of Michigan. He has authored, co-authored, or edited at least 14 books and more than 100 journal articles and book chapters. [2] His research focuses on voting technology (sponsored by a National Science Foundation grant), [3] elections, political campaigns, opinion polling, and the political role of the mass media in the United States. [4]
In addition to consulting work with various media organizations, [2] including the Voter News Service, [5] Traugott has served as president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) [6] [7] and the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). [8] In addition, he has received the 2010 AAPOR Award for distinguished lifetime achievement as well as WAPOR's Helen Dinerman Award for career contributions to public opinion research in 2018. [9] [10]
Traugott sponsored the April 20, 2001 "Election Administration in the United States" seminar, held after the 2000 presidential election, to examine the impact of localized voting problems on national elections. [11]
In January 2013, Gallup announced that Traugott would assist in its comprehensive review of its polling methods following the poor performance during the 2012 presidential campaign. [12]
Traugott served as the Director of the ICPSR Summer Program from 2020 to 2022.
George Horace Gallup was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion.
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.
A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which a person or organization attempts to manipulate or alter prospective voters' views under the guise of conducting an opinion poll. Large numbers of voters are contacted with little effort made to collect and analyze their response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor-mongering masquerading as an opinion poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo, or information gleaned from opposition research on the political opponent of the interests behind the poll.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is a professional organization of more than 2,000 public opinion and survey research professionals in the United States and from around the world, with members from academia, media, government, the non-profit sector and private industry. AAPOR publishes three academic journals: Public Opinion Quarterly, Survey Practice and the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology. It holds an annual research conference and maintains a "Code of Professional Ethics and Practices", for survey research which all members agree to follow. The association's founders include pioneering pollsters Archibald Crossley, George Gallup, and Elmo Roper.
Warren J. Mitofsky was an American political pollster.
Gallup, Inc. is an American multinational analytics and advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became known for its public opinion polls conducted worldwide. Gallup provides analytics and management consulting to organizations globally. In addition the company offers educational consulting, the CliftonStrengths assessment and associated products, and business and management books published by its Gallup Press unit.
The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) is an international professional association of researchers in the field of survey research. It is a member organization of the International Science Council.
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.
The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.
Many scientific, state-wide public opinion polls have been conducted relating to the United States of America (U.S.) presidential election, 2008, matching up Hillary Clinton against John McCain.
Claude E. Robinson (1900–1961) was an American pioneer in advertising research and opinion survey research techniques. Along with George Gallup, he was instrumental in developing many scientific sampling techniques that were later used in Gallup polls and other public opinion research surveys.
The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University is the world's oldest archive of social science data and the largest specializing in data from public opinion surveys. Its collection includes over 27,000 datasets and more than 855,000 questions with responses in Roper iPoll, adding hundreds more each year. The archive contains responses from millions of individuals on a vast range of topics. The current executive director of the center is Jonathon P. Schuldt, Associate Professor of Communication at Cornell University, with a governing board of directors chaired by Robert Y. Shapiro of Columbia University.
Elmo Burns Roper Jr. was an American pollster known for his pioneering work in market research and opinion polling, alongside friends-cum-rivals Archibald Crossley and George Gallup.
A poll aggregator is an entity that tracks and aggregates, often but not exclusively by averaging, individual polls conducted by different organizations in order to gauge public sentiment on key civic issues such as the approval rating of a major political figure, or legislative body; or to measure likely public support for an individual candidate or political party in an upcoming election.
The Gallup International Association (GIA) is an association of polling organizations registered in Zurich, Switzerland. The Gallup International Association was founded in 1947 in Loxwood Hall, Sussex, UK. Dr. George H. Gallup served as its first President, until his death in 1984. In January 2018, the management headquarters was relocated to Vienna, Austria.
Lawrence D. Bobo is the W. E. B. Du Bois Professor of the Social Sciences and the Dean of Social Science at Harvard University. His research focuses on the intersection of social psychology, social inequality, politics, and race.
Statewide polls for the 2016 United States presidential election are as follows. The polls listed here, by state, are from January 1 to August 31, 2016 and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against a possible Democratic candidate.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) is an opinion polling center at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.
The Winthrop Poll, also known as the "Winthrop University Poll," is a long-term survey initiative conducted by Winthrop University's Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research (CPOPR). It informs public policy makers and the general public about the attitudes and opinions of citizens in the state of South Carolina and the southern region of the United States. During the 2020 US Democratic primary, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) designated the Winthrop Poll as one of the threshold polls used to qualify presidential candidates for debates. Topics of the poll typically include political candidates and politically relevant issues. Results of the poll are cited regularly by national and international news organizations such as Time (magazine), Politico, The Hill, the BBC, Washington Post, MSNBC, and CNN.