Offender Group Reconviction Scale

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The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) is a tool, used by the Ministry of Justice in England and Wales, which uses statistical methods to assess the probability of a person reoffending using information about a person's past - specifically any criminal history. [1] [2]

Contents

History

There were a number of predictors of recidivism in use in England and Wales, most often to inform the parole process. [3] A previous iteration of the OGRS was the National Reconviction Assessment Scale (NRAS). [4]

The tool was first developed by the Home Office under Michael Howard's tenure as Home Secretary before being transferred to HM Prison and Probation Service the Ministry of Justice. [5] [2]

Methodology

OGRS 2 did not use social or clinical factors. [3]

OGRS 3 considers factors such as: [5]

OGRS 4 uses a machine learning algorithm. [6]

Versions

The OGRS was first launched in November 1996. [2] OGRS 2 was developed in 1998. [7] OGRS 3 was implemented in 2008. [8] [9]

Criticism

The OGRS has been criticised because of the high levels of stop and search among ethnic minority groups in the United Kingdom and this specifically being a frequent first point of contact for many young black men and the criminal justice system. [10]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Hamilton, Melissa; Ugwudike, Pamela (2023-07-26). "A 'black box' AI system has been influencing criminal justice decisions for over two decades – it's time to open it up". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 2023-08-01. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
  2. 1 2 3 Copas, John; Marshall, Peter (1998). "The Offender Group Reconviction Scale: A Statistical Reconviction Score for Use by Probation Officers". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics). 47 (1): 159–171. doi:10.1111/1467-9876.00104. ISSN   0035-9254. JSTOR   2986060.
  3. 1 2 Howard, Philip (2018-02-20), Singh, Jay P.; Kroner, Daryl G.; Wormith, J. Stephen; Desmarais, Sarah L. (eds.), "Offender Group Reconviction Scale", Handbook of Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools (1 ed.), Wiley, pp. 229–241, doi:10.1002/9781119184256.ch11, ISBN   978-1-119-18428-7 , retrieved 2025-03-23
  4. ↑ "Searching for Proof of Probation Officer Effectiveness". Probation Journal. 42 (3): 126–134. 1995-09-01. doi:10.1177/026455059504200301. ISSN   0264-5505.
  5. 1 2 "Offender Group Re-Conviction Scale Version 3 (OGRS3)" (PDF). Risk Management Authority . 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2025-03-23. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
  6. ↑ Hamilton, Melissa (2023-07-26). "A 'black box' AI system has been influencing criminal justice decisions for over two decades – it's time to open it up". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 2024-12-31. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
  7. ↑ Francis, Brian; Humphreys, Leslie (2007-01-01). Development of a reoffending measure using the Police National Computer (Report).
  8. ↑ Francis, Brian; Soothill, Keith; Humphreys, Leslie (2009). OGRS 3: the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale (PDF) (Report). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-05-05. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
  9. ↑ Morgan, Robert D. (2019). The SAGE Encyclopedia of Criminal Psychology. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, California 91320: SAGE Publications, Inc. doi:10.4135/9781483392240. ISBN   978-1-4833-9226-4.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location (link)
  10. ↑ "Ask The Expert: The Lammy Review of Black and Minority Ethnic representation in the Criminal Justice System". Social Market Foundation . 2016-07-18. Archived from the original on 2022-07-01. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
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