Poker strategy

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Poker is a popular card game that combines elements of chance and strategy. There are various styles of poker, all of which share an objective of presenting the least probable or highest-scoring hand. A poker hand is usually a configuration of five cards depending on the variant, either held entirely by a player or drawn partly from a number of shared, community cards. Players bet on their hands in a number of rounds as cards are drawn, employing various mathematical and intuitive strategies in an attempt to better opponents.

Contents

Given the game's many different forms and various dynamics, poker strategy becomes a complex subject. This article attempts to introduce only the basic strategy concepts.

The fundamental theorem of poker

David Sklansky at the World Series of Poker DavidSklansky.jpg
David Sklansky at the World Series of Poker

The fundamental theorem of poker, introduced by David Sklansky, states: Every time you play your hand the way you would if you could see your opponents' cards, you gain, and every time your opponents play their cards differently from the way they would play them if they could see your cards, you gain. [1] This theorem is the foundation for many poker strategy topics. For example, bluffing and slow-playing (explained below) are examples of using deception to induce your opponents to play differently from how they would if they could see your cards. There are some exceptions to the fundamental theorem in certain multi-way pot situations, as described in Morton's theorem.

Pot odds, implied odds and poker probabilities

The relationship between pot odds and odds of winning is one of the most important concepts in poker strategy. Pot odds are the ratio of the size of the pot to the size of the bet required to stay in the pot. [1] For example, if a player must call $10 for a chance to win a $40 pot (not including their $10 call), their pot odds are 4-to-1. To have a positive expectation, a player's odds of winning must be better than their pot odds. If the player's odds of winning are also 4-to-1 (20% chance of winning), their expected return is to break even (on average, losing four times and winning once for every five times they play such a pot).

Implied odds is a more complicated concept, though related to pot odds. The implied odds on a hand are based not on the money currently in the pot, but on the expected size of the pot at the end of the hand. When facing an even money situation (like the one described in the previous paragraph) and holding a strong drawing hand (say a Four flush) a skilled player will consider calling a bet or even opening based on their implied odds. This is particularly true in multi-way pots, where it is likely that one or more opponents will call all the way to showdown.

Deception

By employing deception, a poker player hopes to induce their opponent(s) to act differently from how they would if they could see their cards. David Sklansky has argued that winning at poker is often decided by how much one player can force another to change their style while successfully maintaining their own strategy. [2] Bluffing is a form of deception where players bet strongly on a weak hand to induce opponents to fold superior hands. Related is the semi-bluff, in which a player who does not have a strong hand, but has a chance to improve it to a strong hand in later rounds, bets strongly on the hand in the hopes of inducing other players with weaker "made" hands to fold. [3] Slow-playing is deceptive play in poker that is roughly the opposite of bluffing: checking or betting weakly with a strong holding, attempting to induce other players with weaker hands to call or raise the bet instead of folding, to increase the payout.

Position

A standard Texas hold 'em game with blinds Texas Hold'em Poker Table with Blinds.svg
A standard Texas hold 'em game with blinds

Position refers to the order in which players are seated around the table and the strategic consequences of this. Generally, players in earlier position (who have to act first) need stronger hands to bet/raise or call than players in later position. For example, if there are five opponents yet to act behind a player, there is a greater chance one of the yet to act opponents will have a better hand than if there were only one opponent yet to act. Being in late position is an advantage because a player gets to see how their opponents in earlier position act (which provides the player more information about their hands than they have about his). This information, coupled with a low bet to a late player, may allow the player to "limp in" with a weaker hand when they would have folded the same hand if they'd had to act earlier. Position is one of the most vital elements to understand in order to be a long-term winning player. As a player's position improves, so too does the range of cards with which they can profitably enter a hand. Conversely this commonly held knowledge can be used to an intelligent poker player's advantage. If playing against observant opponents, then a raise with any two cards can 'steal the blinds,' if executed against passive players at the right time.

Reasons to raise

Unlike calling, raising has an extra way to win: opponents may fold. An opening bet may be considered a raise from a strategy perspective. David Sklansky gives several reasons for raising, summarized below. [1]

Reasons to call

There are several reasons for calling a bet or raise, summarized below.

Gap concept

The gap concept states that a player needs a better hand to play against someone who has already opened (or raised) the betting than he would need to open himself. [5] The gap concept reflects that players prefer to avoid confrontations with other players who have already indicated strength, and that calling only has one way to win (by having the best hand), whereas opening may also win immediately if your opponent(s) fold.

Sandwich effect

Related to the gap effect, the sandwich effect states that a player needs a stronger hand to stay in a pot when there are opponents yet to act behind him. [4] Because the player does not know how many opponents will be involved in the pot or whether he will have to call a re-raise, he does not know what his effective pot odds actually are. Therefore, a stronger hand is desired as compensation for this uncertainty. A squeeze play exploits this principle.

Loose/tight play

Loose players play relatively more hands and tend to continue with weaker hands; hence they do not often fold. Tight players play relatively fewer hands and tend not to continue with weaker hands; hence they often fold. The following concepts are applicable in loose games (and their inverse in tight games): [1]

Aggressive/passive play

Aggressive play refers to betting and raising. Passive play refers to checking and calling. Unless passive play is being used deceptively as mentioned above, aggressive play is generally considered stronger than passive play because of the bluff value of bets and raises and because it offers more opportunities for your opponents to make mistakes. [1]

Hand reading, tells and leveling

Hand reading is the process of making educated guesses about the possible cards an opponent may hold, based on the sequence of actions in the pot. The term 'hand reading' is actually a misnomer, as skilled players do not attempt to assign a player to an exact hand. Rather they attempt to narrow the possibilities down to a range of probable hands based on the past actions of their opponent, during both the current hand and previous hands played by this opponent.

Tells are detectable changes in opponents' behavior or demeanor which provide clues about their hands or their intentions. Educated guesses about opponents' cards and intentions can help a player avoid mistakes in his own play, induce mistakes by the opponents, or influence the opponents to take actions that they would not normally take under the circumstances. For example, a tell might suggest that an opponent has missed a draw, so a player seeing it may decide a bluff would be more effective than usual.

Leveling or multiple level thinking is accounting for what the other opponents think about the hands. This information can then be used to the player's advantage. Some players might be able to make educated guesses about opponents' hands; this could be seen as the first level. The second level could be thought of as the combination of the first level and deducing what the opponents think the player's hand may be. Skilled players can adjust their game play to be on a higher level than that of less skilled opponents.

Table image and opponent profiling

By observing the tendencies and patterns of one's opponents, one can make more educated guesses about others' potential holdings. For example, if a player has been playing extremely tightly (playing very few hands), then when he/she finally enters a pot, one may surmise that he/she has stronger than average cards. One's table image is the perception by one's opponents of one's own pattern of play. A player can leverage their table image by playing out of character, and thereby inducing his/her opponents to misjudge his/her hand and make a mistake.

In live poker, as opposed to internet, stereotypes are often used for initial 'reads'. For instance, people of retirement age are often witnessed to play tight. Players will often project this image on unknown people of retirement age. Young people wearing headphones and hoodies are often witnessed to play more aggressively and mathematically if they played a lot of winning internet poker. These stereotypes can often be good bases to start a profile.

Often, there is a rather small pool of players in a given card playing venue. People will carry their history of playing with them in these environments.

Internet poker players can use large databases of hand histories to get a more precise player profile. Statistical information about opponents is displayed on the tables in the form of a heads up display. The most commonly used software is PokerTracker and Hold'em Manager.

Equity

Players' equity in a pot is their expected share of the pot, expressed either as a percentage (probability of winning) or expected value (amount of pot * probability of winning). Negative equity, or loss in equity, occurs when contributing to a pot with a probability of winning less than 1 / (number of opponents matching the contribution+1).

Example
Alice contributes $12 to a pot and is matched by two other opponents. Alice's $12 contribution "bought" the chance to win $36. If Alice's probability of winning is 50%, her equity in the $36 pot is $18 (a gain in equity because her $12 is now "worth" $18). If her probability of winning is only 10%, Alice loses equity because her $12 is now only "worth" $3.60 (amount of pot * probability of winning).
Texas hold 'em example
Alice holds J♦8♠. Bob holds K♥7♠. After the flop, the board is 5♥6♥7♦. If both hands are played to a showdown, Alice has a 45% chance to win (which she is unaware of, because she does not know what hand Bob holds), Bob has a 53% chance to win and there is a 2% chance to split the pot. The pot currently has $51. Alice goes all-in for $45 reasoning that she can take the pot immediately if Bob folds or that Bob calls with a worse hand. Bob's simple pot odds for the call are also 32%; since his equity of 53% is greater than the pot odds he has to call, Bob has a positive expected value for the call (if he knew Alice's hole cards).

Short-handed considerations

When playing short-handed (at a table with 3-6 players), players must loosen up their play (play more hands) for several reasons: [1]

This type of situation comes up most often in tournament style play. In a cash game, the adjustments are very similar, but not quite as drastic as the table can ask for what is known as a 'rake break.' A rake break occurs when the floor-man, who represents the casino, agrees to take a smaller portion than usual for the hand. For example, a random casino might normally receive 10% of the pot up to 5 dollars for a 'rake.' In this case the table would only owe 10% up to 3 dollars until there are a sufficient number of players again. In online poker rake breaks are determined automatically.

Structure considerations

The blinds and antes and limit structure of the game have a significant influence on poker strategy. For example, it is easier to manipulate pot odds in no-limit and pot-limit games than in limit games. In tournaments, as the size of the forced bets relative to the chip stacks grows, pressure is placed on players to play pots to avoid being anted/blinded away. [6]

Mindset considerations

In 2014, Bwin conducted a study to see what makes a professional poker player. The brain activity of poker players, of varying degrees, was monitored using EEG headsets and visualised into brain maps. [7] Leading sports psychologist, James Hazlett, then interpreted the findings:

The conclusions of the study suggest that poker players can improve their strategy by considering their mindset. Mental training techniques, commonly used by athletes, could therefore help to improve performance by working on elements such as self-control and concentration.

See also

Poker plays

Specific games

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 David Sklansky (1987). The Theory of Poker . Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN   1-880685-00-0.
  2. Milovsky, Nicholas. "The Basics of Game Theory and Associated Games" . Retrieved 11 February 2014.
  3. California Jack Cassidy (2015). "Early Round Bluffing in Poker". The American Mathematical Monthly. 122 (8): 726. doi:10.4169/amer.math.monthly.122.8.726. S2CID   123806273.
  4. 1 2 Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie (2004). Harrington on Hold'em: Expert Strategy For No-Limit Tournaments; Volume I: Strategic Play. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN   1-880685-33-7.
  5. David Sklansky (2001). Tournament Poker for Advanced Players. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN   1-880685-28-0.
  6. Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie (2005). Harrington on Hold'em: Expert Strategy For No-Limit Tournaments; Volume II: The Endgame. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN   1-880685-35-3.
  7. Your Brain on Poker

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Poker</span> Card game

Poker is a family of comparing card games in which players wager over which hand is best according to that specific game's rules. It is played worldwide, however in some places the rules may vary. While the earliest known form of the game was played with just 20 cards, today it is usually played with a standard deck, although in countries where short packs are common, it may be played with 32, 40 or 48 cards. Thus poker games vary in deck configuration, the number of cards in play, the number dealt face up or face down, and the number shared by all players, but all have rules that involve one or more rounds of betting.

A check-raise in poker is a common deceptive play in which a player checks early in a betting round, hoping someone else will open. The player who checked then raises in the same round.

In poker, the strength of a hand is often called its value; however, in the context of poker strategy the term is more often used to describe a betting tactic, a bet for value. This bet is intended to increase the size of the pot, by inducing opponents to call. A bet for value is in contrast to a bluff or a protection bet.

Protection in poker is a bet made with a strong but vulnerable hand, such as top pair when straight or flush draws are possible. The bet forces opponents with draws to either call with insufficient pot odds, or to fold, both of which are profitable for the betting player. By contrast, if he failed to protect his hand, another player could draw out on him at no cost, meaning he gets no value from his made hand.

A poker player is drawing if they have a hand that is incomplete and needs further cards to become valuable. The hand itself is called a draw or drawing hand. For example, in seven-card stud, if four of a player's first five cards are all spades, but the hand is otherwise weak, they are drawing to a flush. In contrast, a made hand already has value and does not necessarily need to draw to win. A made starting hand with no help can lose to an inferior starting hand with a favorable draw. If an opponent has a made hand that will beat the player's draw, then the player is drawing dead; even if they make their desired hand, they will lose. Not only draws benefit from additional cards; many made hands can be improved by catching an out — and may have to in order to win.

In poker, pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call. Pot odds are compared to the odds of winning a hand with a future card in order to estimate the call's expected value. The purpose of this is to statistically guide a player's decision between the options of call or fold. Raising is an alternative to place this decision on the opponent.

In the game of poker, opens and raises are considered aggressive plays, while calls and checks are considered passive. It is said that "aggression has its own value", meaning that often aggressive plays can make money with weak hands because of bluff value. In general, opponents must respond to aggressive play by playing more loosely, which offers more opportunities to make mistakes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bluff (poker)</span> Tactic in poker and other card games

In the card game of poker, a bluff is a bet or raise made with a hand which is not thought to be the best hand. To bluff is to make such a bet. The objective of a bluff is to induce a fold by at least one opponent who holds a better hand. The size and frequency of a bluff determines its profitability to the bluffer. By extension, the phrase "calling somebody's bluff" is often used outside the context of poker to describe situations where one person demands that another proves a claim, or proves that they are not being deceptive.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Betting in poker</span> Procedures of betting in poker

In the game of poker, the play largely centers on the act of betting, and as such, a protocol has been developed to speed up play, lessen confusion, and increase security while playing. Different games are played using different types of bets, and small variations in etiquette exist between cardrooms, but for the most part the following rules and protocol are observed by the majority of poker players.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Texas hold 'em</span> Variation of the card game of poker

Texas hold 'em is one of the most popular variants of the card game of poker. Two cards, known as hole cards, are dealt face down to each player, and then five community cards are dealt face up in three stages. The stages consist of a series of three cards, later an additional single card, and a final card. Each player seeks the best five card poker hand from any combination of the seven cards; the five community cards and their two hole cards. Players have betting options to check, call, raise, or fold. Rounds of betting take place before the flop is dealt and after each subsequent deal. The player who has the best hand and has not folded by the end of all betting rounds wins all of the money bet for the hand, known as the pot. In certain situations, a "split-pot" or "tie" can occur when two players have hands of equivalent value. This is also called a "chop-pot". Texas hold 'em is also the H game featured in HORSE and in HOSE.

Slow playing is a deceptive play in poker where a player bets weakly or passively with a strong holding. It is the opposite of fast playing. A flat call can be a form of slow playing. The objective of slow playing is to lure opponents into a pot who might fold to a raise, or to cause them to bet more strongly than they would if the player had played aggressively. Slow playing sacrifices protection against hands that may improve and risks losing the pot-building value of a bet if the opponent also checks.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cheating in poker</span>

Cheating in poker is any behavior outside the rules of poker that is intended to give an unfair advantage to one or more players.

Caribbean stud poker, also called casino stud poker, is a casino table game with rules derived from five-card stud poker. However, unlike standard poker games, Caribbean stud poker is played against the house rather than against other players. There is no option to bluff or deceive as this is played against the house and not other players.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">David Sklansky</span> American poker player and author

David Sklansky is an American professional poker player and author. An early writer on poker strategy, he is known for his mathematical approach to the game. His key work The Theory of Poker presents fundamental principles on which much later analysis is based.

The fundamental theorem of poker is a principle first articulated by David Sklansky that he believes expresses the essential nature of poker as a game of decision-making in the face of incomplete information.

Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Badugi</span>

Badugi is a draw poker variant similar to triple draw, with hand-values similar to lowball. The betting structure and overall play of the game is identical to a standard poker game using blinds, but, unlike traditional poker which involves a minimum of five cards, players' hands contain only four cards at any one time. During each of three drawing rounds, players can trade zero to four cards from their hands for new ones from the deck, in an attempt to form the best badugi hand and win the pot. Badugi is often a gambling game, with the object being to win money in the form of pots. The winner of the pot is the person with the best badugi hand at the conclusion of play. Badugi is played in cardrooms around the world, as well as online, in rooms such as PokerStars. Although it hasn’t had its own tournament per se at the WSOP, it is featured in the Dealers Choice events as well as in the Triple Draw Mix. The 2023 WSOP event does have a Badugi tournament scheduled.

In no-limit or pot-limit poker, a post-oak bluff is a very small bet relative to the size of the already-existing pot. This type of bluff may be employed as an attempt at using reverse psychology to steal the pot. It holds comparatively little risk for the player making the bet. The term was popularized by Doyle Brunson in his 1979 book Super System.

Fold equity is a concept in poker strategy that is especially important when a player becomes short-stacked in a no limit tournament. It is the equity a player can expect to gain due to the opponent folding to his or her bets. It equates to:

Negative freeroll occurs in poker when a player places an all-in wager on a hand that can only either tie or lose. A negative freeroll is relatively common in low stakes amateur play, but in higher stakes play, it is considered a serious blunder to allow a negative freeroll on the final round of betting due to the amount of risk involved.

The following is a glossary of poker terms used in the card game of poker. It supplements the glossary of card game terms. Besides the terms listed here, there are thousands of common and uncommon poker slang terms. This is not intended to be a formal dictionary; precise usage details and multiple closely related senses are omitted here in favor of concise treatment of the basics.