Ray Fair

Last updated
Ray C. Fair
Born (1942-10-04) October 4, 1942 (age 81)
Spouse Sharon Oster
Academic career
Institution Yale University
Field Macroeconomics
Alma mater Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Fresno State College
Doctoral
advisor
Robert Solow [1]
Information at IDEAS / RePEc

Ray Clarence Fair (born October 4, 1942) is the John M. Musser Professor of Economics at Yale University.

Fair received his B.A. from Fresno State College in 1964 and his Ph.D. from MIT in 1968. He spent several years at Princeton University before moving to Yale. He is now a professor within the Cowles Foundation and the International Center for Finance.

Fair's teaching and research interests include macroeconomic theory, econometrics, and macroeconometric modeling. He is the author, along with Karl Case of Wellesley College, of the economics textbook Principles of Economics. He has also authored several books pertaining to modeling, including Testing Macroeconometric Models (1994) and Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works (2004).

He is noted for his methods for predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, for which his work has been frequently cited. He published Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things on this subject in 2002.

Ray Fair maintains a macroeconomic model, data, software and forecasts on his home page and that are also available for free downloading for use on a personal computer. The Fair Model macroeconomic model forecasts for the United States and 38 other countries. His model predicted a Trump victory in 2016. [2]

Fair lives in New Haven, Connecticut. He was married to Sharon Oster, a professor at the Yale School of Management, until her death in 2022. He is the father of Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lawrence Klein</span> American economist

Lawrence Robert Klein was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks.

Data Resources Inc or DRI was co-founded in 1969 by Donald Marron and Otto Eckstein. Marron is best known as the former CEO of PaineWebber and founder of Lightyear Capital. Eckstein was a Harvard University economics professor, economic consultant to Lyndon Baines Johnson and member of the Council of Economic Advisors; he is best known for the development of the theory of core inflation.

Otto Eckstein was a German-American economist. He was a key developer and proponent of the theory of core inflation, which proposed that in determining accurate metrics of long run inflation, the transitory price changes of items subject to volatile pricing, such as food and energy, are to be excluded from computation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greg Mankiw</span> American economist

Nicholas Gregory Mankiw is an American macroeconomist who is currently the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. Mankiw is best known in academia for his work on New Keynesian economics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Macroeconomic model</span> Model used in Macroeconomics

A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Edmund Phelps</span> American economist

Edmund Strother Phelps is an American economist and the recipient of the 2006 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Patrick Minford</span> British macroeconomist (born 1943)

Anthony Patrick Leslie Minford is a British macroeconomist who is professor of applied economics at Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, a position he has held since 1997. He was Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Liverpool from 1976 to 1997. In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the Economists for Brexit group which, in opposition to the consensus view of economists, advocated the UK leaving the European Union. His prediction of an 8% drop in the cost of living soon after leaving failed to materialise and was deemed to be incorrect.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Timothy Kehoe</span> American economist (born 1953)

Timothy Jerome Kehoe is an American economist and professor at the University of Minnesota. His area of specialty is macroeconomics and international economics.

Sharon Monica Oster was an American economist. She was the Frederic D. Wolfe Professor Emerita of Management and Entrepreneurship and the dean of Yale School of Management, where she was the first woman to receive tenure, and the first female dean. She was widely known as an economist focusing on business strategy and non-profit organization management.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Charles Soludo</span> Nigerian politician and banker (born 1960)

Charles Chukwuma Soludo is a Nigerian politician, banker, and economics professor who has served as governor of Anambra State since March 2022. He is a former governor and chairman of the board of directors of the Central Bank of Nigeria. He was appointed as the bank's governor on 29 May 2004.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bruce Bueno de Mesquita</span>

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling is a macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as policy effects and market shocks.

Karl Edwin "Chip" Case was professor of economics emeritus at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, United States, where he held the Coman and Hepburn Chair in Economics and taught for 34 years. He was a senior fellow at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University and was president of the Boston Economic Club 2011-12. Case was also a founding partner in the real estate research firm of Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, Inc., which created the S&P Case Shiller Index of home prices. He served as a member of the Board of Directors of the Depositors Insurance Fund of Massachusetts. He was a member of the Standard and Poor’s Index Advisory Committee, the academic advisory board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the board of advisors of the Rappaport Institute for Greater Boston at Harvard University. He served as a member of the boards of directors of the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC), Century Bank, The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, and the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. He was also an associate editor of The Journal of Economic Perspectives and The Journal of Economics Education.

Alan Ira Abramowitz is an American political scientist and author, known for his research and writings on American politics, elections in the United States, and political parties in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wynne Godley</span> British economist

Wynne Godley was an economist famous for his pessimism about the British economy and his criticism of the British government. In 2007, he and Marc Lavoie wrote a book about the "Stock-Flow Consistent" model, an analysis that predicted the global financial crisis of 2008. Dirk Bezemer argues that Godley was notable for predicting the nature of the Great Recession of the late 2000s well in advance, and for doing so on the basis of a formal model.

Following the development of Keynesian economics, applied economics began developing forecasting models based on economic data including national income and product accounting data. In contrast with typical textbook models, these large-scale macroeconometric models used large amounts of data and based forecasts on past correlations instead of theoretical relations. These models estimated the relations between different macroeconomic variables using regression analysis on time series data. These models grew to include hundreds or thousands of equations describing the evolution of hundreds or thousands of prices and quantities over time, making computers essential for their solution. While the choice of which variables to include in each equation was partly guided by economic theory, variable inclusion was mostly determined on purely empirical grounds. Large-scale macroeconometric model consists of systems of dynamic equations of the economy with the estimation of parameters using time-series data on a quarterly to yearly basis.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">George C. Edwards III</span>

George C. Edwards III is University Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies Emeritus at Texas A&M University and distinguished fellow at the University of Oxford. He is a leading scholar of American politics, particularly of the American presidency, authoring or editing 28 books and approximately 100 articles and essays.

Barbara Rossi is an ICREA professor of economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, a Barcelona GSE Research Professor, a CREI affiliated professor and a CEPR Fellow. She is a founding fellow of the International Association of Applied Econometrics, a fellow of the Econometric Society and a director of the International Association of Applied Econometrics.

Francis X. Diebold is an American economist known for his work in predictive econometric modeling, financial econometrics, and macroeconometrics. He earned both his B.S. and Ph.D. degrees at the University of Pennsylvania, where his doctoral committee included Marc Nerlove, Lawrence Klein, and Peter Pauly. He has spent most of his career at Penn, where he has mentored approximately 75 Ph.D. students. Presently he is Paul F. and Warren S. Miller Professor of Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at Penn’s School of Arts and Sciences, and Professor of Finance and Professor of Statistics at Penn’s Wharton School. He is also a Faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and author of the No Hesitations blog.

<i>The Case for Impeachment</i> 2017 non-fiction book by Allan Lichtman

The Case for Impeachment is a non-fiction book by American University Distinguished Professor of History Allan Lichtman arguing for the impeachment of Donald Trump. It was published on April 18, 2017, by Dey Street Books, an imprint of HarperCollins. Lichtman predicted to The Washington Post that after ascending to the presidency, Trump would later be impeached from office. He developed this thesis into a set of multiple arguments for Trump's predicted impeachment.

References