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The social impact of H5N1 is the effect or influence of H5N1 in human society.[ citation needed ]
On November 1, 2005, US President George W. Bush unveiled the National Strategy To Safeguard Against The Danger of Pandemic Influenza [1] backed by a request to Congress for $7.1 billion to begin implementing the plan. [2]
On January 18, 2006, donor nations pledged two billion US dollars to combat bird flu at the two-day International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Influenza held in China. [3] Over ten billion dollars were spent, and over two hundred million birds were killed to try to contain H5N1. [4]
According to The New York Times , due to the H5N1 threat, as of March 2006: "governments worldwide have spent billions planning for a potential influenza pandemic: buying medicines, running disaster drills, [and] developing strategies for tighter border controls." [5]
Investment strategies are being altered to manage the effects of H5N1. [6] This changes the valuations of trillions of dollars worth of stocks worldwide as investors move assets in accordance with both fears and hopes.
Poultry farming practices have changed due to H5N1:
For example, after nearly two years of using mainly culling to control the virus, the Vietnam government in 2005 adopted a combination of mass poultry vaccination, disinfecting, culling, information campaigns and bans on live poultry in cities. [8]
The cost of poultry farming has increased, while the cost to consumers has gone down due to fears from H5N1 driving demand below supply, resulting in devastating losses for many poultry farmers. Poor poultry farmers can't afford mandated measures keeping their bird livestock from contact with wild birds (and other measures) thus risking losing their livelihood altogether. Multinational poultry farming is increasingly becoming a profit loser as H5N1 achieves status as endemic in wild birds worldwide. [9]
Financial ruin for poor poultry farmers, that can be as severe as threatening starvation, has caused some to commit suicide and many others to stop cooperating with efforts to deal with H5N1; further increasing the human toll, the spread of the disease and the chances for a pandemic mutation. [10]
US HHS Secretary Michael O. Leavitt has said "Everything you say in advance of a pandemic is alarmist; anything you do after it starts is inadequate." [11]
H5N1, like many other topics, is subject to political spin; wherein every interest group picks and chooses among the facts to support their favorite cause resulting in a distortion of the overall picture, the motivations of the people involved and the believability of the predictions.[ citation needed ]
Donald Rumsfeld, formerly United States Secretary of Defense, is a past board member and current minor shareholder of Gilead Sciences which owns intellectual property rights to Oseltamivir (also called "Tamiflu"). In November 2005, George W. Bush urged Congress to pass 7.1 billion in emergency funding to prepare for the possible bird flu pandemic, of which one billion is solely dedicated to the purchase, and distribution of Tamiflu.[ citation needed ]
Some believe H5N1 is a problem of industrial poultry practices. [12]
Others have a more nuanced position. According to the CDC article H5N1 Outbreaks and Enzootic Influenza by Robert G. Webster et al.: "Transmission of highly pathogenic H5N1 from domestic poultry back to migratory waterfowl in western China has increased the geographic spread. The spread of H5N1 and its likely reintroduction to domestic poultry increase the need for good agricultural vaccines. In fact, the root cause of the continuing H5N1 pandemic threat may be the way the pathogenicity of H5N1 viruses is masked by cocirculating influenza viruses or bad agricultural vaccines." [13] Dr. Robert Webster explains: "If you use a good vaccine you can prevent the transmission within poultry and to humans. But if they have been using vaccines now [in China] for several years, why is there so much bird flu? There is bad vaccine that stops the disease in the bird but the bird goes on pooping out virus and maintaining it and changing it. And I think this is what is going on in China. It has to be. Either there is not enough vaccine being used or there is substandard vaccine being used. Probably both. It's not just China. We can't blame China for substandard vaccines. I think there are substandard vaccines for influenza in poultry all over the world." [14] In response to the same concerns, Reuters reports Hong Kong infectious disease expert Lo Wing-lok saying that "The issue of vaccines has to take top priority", and Julie Hall, in charge of the WHO's outbreak response in China, saying that China's vaccinations could be "masking" the virus. [15] The BBC reported that Dr Wendy Barclay, a virologist at the University of Reading, UK said: "The Chinese have made a vaccine based on reverse genetics made with H5N1 antigens, and they have been using it. There has been a lot of criticism of what they have done, because they have protected their chickens against death from this virus but the chickens still get infected; and then you get drift - the virus mutates in response to the antibodies - and now we have a situation where we have five or six 'flavours' of H5N1 out there." [16]
Some have called for tax breaks due to H5N1. A May 7, 2006 report from India E-News states that: "Pakistani poultry farmers have sought a 10-year tax exemption to support their dwindling business after the detection of the H5N1 strain of bird flu triggered a fall in demand and prices, a poultry trader said. "We have asked the government to give us tax exemption on income from the poultry business for at least 10 years to meet losses caused by the bird flu scare", Abdul Basit told DPA. Basit, vice president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) in the country's commercial hub of Lahore, was part of a delegation of the Pakistan Poultry Association, which met food ministry officials to present their demand. The federal poultry board of the food ministry is to meet on May 9 to consider the tax-cut demand for the poultry business in the upcoming national budget due in mid-June." [17]
Reuters reported that WHO expert Hassan al-Bushra said:
Even now, we remain unsure about Tamiflu's real effectiveness. As for a vaccine, work cannot start on it until the emergence of a new virus, and we predict it would take six to nine months to develop it. For the moment, we cannot by any means count on a potential vaccine to prevent the spread of a contagious influenza virus, whose various precedents in the past 90 years have been highly pathogenic. However, it is crucial that countries in the Middle East invest and start developing their own research and technical facilities, where they can produce their own drugs when the time comes rather than wait to import expensive medicines from abroad at the risk of their population. [18]
If a pandemic occurs, local response will be more important than national or international response, as every community will have its own resources swamped dealing with its own problems. [19] International groups, nations, local governments, corporations, schools, and groups of all kinds have made plans and run drills to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic.
Online avian flu forums have received increasing attention. [20] Self-help groups have organized to provide news and information about resources, aid and relief efforts in preparation for avian flu. [21]
British reports warn that in response to an influenza pandemic local groups will not be able to rely on the armed forces, widespread infection could occur in days not months, an effective vaccine can not be counted on, and the huge death toll could swamp mortuaries so "A key point for local planning is likely to be the identification of potential sites for the location of facilities for the temporary storage of bodies". [22]
Many individuals have stockpiled supplies (Tamiflu, food, water, etc.) for a possible flu pandemic. [23]
Individuals have started web sites and companies using interest and ignorance in H5N1 to sell information, cures, and advertising space. Some even use concern over H5N1 to find victims for their malware. [24]
A significant effect of H5N1 has been personal fear concerning the unknown, even by those most in-the-know. Dr. David Nabarro, chief avian flu coordinator for the United Nations, describes himself as "quite scared"; says avian flu has too many unanswered questions; and if the disease starts spreading to humans, borders will close, airports will shut down, and travelers everywhere will be stranded. [25] With evaluations of the threat ranging from those who say it is a hoax to those who warn of billions of humans dying, uncertainty and fear motivate personal behaviors around the world affecting many people even before the threat becomes reality.
The 1998 chart-topping hit song "One Week" by Barenaked Ladies includes the lines "Chickity China the Chinese chicken / Have a drumstick and your brain stops tickin'", a reference to the outbreaks of H5N1 in Hong Kong around the time the song was written.
The annual flu season deaths and costs caused by viruses other than H5N1 provide a point of contrast - something to compare against. According to the United States Government, the annual flu in the United States:
results in approximately 36,000 deaths and more than 200,000 hospitalizations each year. In addition to this human toll, influenza is annually responsible for a total cost of over $10 billion in the United States. A pandemic, or worldwide outbreak of a new influenza virus, could dwarf this impact by overwhelming our health and medical capabilities, potentially resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions of hospitalizations, and hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs. [26]
The New England Journal of Medicine reported that: "A study by the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the consequences of a severe pandemic could, in the United States, include 200 million people infected, 90 million clinically ill, and 2 million dead. The study estimates that 30 percent of all workers would become ill and 2.5 percent would die, with 30 percent of workers missing a mean of three weeks of work — resulting in a decrease in the gross domestic product of 5 percent. Furthermore, 18 million to 45 million people would require outpatient care, and economic costs would total approximately $675 billion." [27] One study concludes that a pandemic that reduced the available dock workers by 28% would cut the throughput capacity for containers arriving at American ports on the West coast by 45%. [28]
Avian influenza, also known as avian flu or bird flu, is a disease caused by the influenza A virus, which primarily affects birds but can sometimes affect mammals including humans. Wild aquatic birds are the primary host of the influenza A virus, which is enzootic in many bird populations.
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (A/H5N1) is a subtype of the influenza A virus, which causes influenza (flu), predominantly in birds. It is enzootic in many bird populations, and also panzootic. A/H5N1 virus can also infect mammals that have been exposed to infected birds; in these cases, symptoms are frequently severe or fatal.
An influenza pandemic is an epidemic of an influenza virus that spreads across a large region and infects a large proportion of the population. There have been six major influenza epidemics in the last 140 years, with the 1918 flu pandemic being the most severe; this is estimated to have been responsible for the deaths of 50–100 million people. The 2009 swine flu pandemic resulted in under 300,000 deaths and is considered relatively mild. These pandemics occur irregularly.
Singapore has taken a series of measures against avian influenza and the potential threat of a pandemic.
The global spread of H5N1 influenza in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat. While other H5N1 influenza strains are known, they are significantly different on a genetic level from a highly pathogenic, emergent strain of H5N1, which was able to achieve hitherto unprecedented global spread in 2008. The H5N1 strain is a fast-mutating, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) found in multiple bird species. It is both epizootic and panzootic. Unless otherwise indicated, "H5N1" in this timeline refers to the 2008 highly pathogenic strain of H5N1.
Transmission and infection of H5N1 from infected avian sources to humans has been a concern since the first documented case of human infection in 1997, due to the global spread of H5N1 that constitutes a pandemic threat.
H5 N2 is a subtype of the species Influenzavirus A. The subtype infects a wide variety of birds, including chickens, ducks, turkeys, falcons, and ostriches. Affected birds usually do not appear ill, and the disease is often mild as avian influenza viral subtypes go. Some variants of the subtype are much more pathogenic than others, and outbreaks of "high-path" H5N2 result in the culling of thousands of birds in poultry farms from time to time. It appears that people who work with birds can be infected by the virus, but suffer hardly any noticeable health effects. Even people exposed to the highly pathogenic H5N2 variety that killed ostrich chicks in South Africa only seem to have developed conjunctivitis, or a perhaps a mild respiratory illness. There is no evidence of human-to-human spread of H5N2. On November 12, 2005 it was reported that a falcon was found to have H5N2. On June 5, 2024, the first confirmed human case of H5N2 was reported in Mexico.
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (A/H5N1) is a subtype of the influenza A virus, which causes influenza (flu), predominantly in birds. It is enzootic in many bird populations, and also panzootic. A/H5N1 virus can also infect mammals that have been exposed to infected birds; in these cases, symptoms are frequently severe or fatal. All subtypes of the influenza A virus share the same genetic structure and are potentially able to exchange genetic material by means of reassortment
The global spread of H5N1 in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat.
The global spread of H5N1 in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat.
The global spread of H5N1 in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat.
Fujian flu refers to flu caused by either a Fujian human flu strain of the H3N2 subtype of the Influenza A virus or a Fujian bird flu strain of the H5N1 subtype of the Influenza A virus. These strains are named after Fujian, a coastal province in Southeast China.
The Goose Guangdong virus refers to the strain A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96 (Gs/Gd)-like H5N1 HPAI viruses. It is a strain of the Influenzavirus A subtype H5N1 virus that was first detected in a goose in Guangdong in 1996. It is an HPAI virus, meaning that it can kill a very high percentage of chickens in a flock in mere days. It is believed to be the immediate precursor of the current dominant strain of HPAI A(H5N1) that evolved from 1999 to 2002 creating the Z genotype that is spreading globally and is epizootic and panzootic, killing tens of millions of birds and spurring the culling of hundreds of millions of others to stem its spread.
The 2007 Bernard Matthews H5N1 outbreak was an occurrence of avian influenza in England caused by the H5N1 subtype of Influenza virus A that began on 30 January 2007. The infection affected poultry at one of Bernard Matthews' farms in Holton in Suffolk. It was the third instance of H5N1-subtype detected in the United Kingdom and a range of precautions were instituted to prevent spread of the disease including a large cull of turkeys, the imposition of segregation zones, and a disinfection programme for the plant.
H5N1 influenza virus is a type of influenza A virus which mostly infects birds. H5N1 flu is a concern due to the its global spread that may constitute a pandemic threat. The yardstick for human mortality from H5N1 is the case-fatality rate (CFR); the ratio of the number of confirmed human deaths resulting from infection of H5N1 to the number of those confirmed cases of infection with the virus. For example, if there are 100 confirmed cases of a disease and 50 die as a consequence, then the CFR is 50%. The case fatality rate does not take into account cases of a disease which are unconfirmed or undiagnosed, perhaps because symptoms were mild and unremarkable or because of a lack of diagnostic facilities. The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is adjusted to allow for undiagnosed cases.
The global spread of H5N1 in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat.
A H5N1 vaccine is an influenza vaccine intended to provide immunization to influenza A virus subtype H5N1.
Influenza A virus subtype H7N9 (A/H7N9) is a subtype of the influenza A virus, which causes influenza (flu), predominantly in birds. It is enzootic in many bird populations. A/H7N9 virus can also infect humans that have been exposed to infected birds; in these cases, symptoms are frequently severe or fatal. A/H7N9 virus is shed in the saliva, mucous, and feces of infected birds. The virus can spread rapidly through poultry flocks and among wild birds.
In the early 2020s, an ongoing outbreak of avian influenza subtype H5N8 has been occurring at poultry farms and among wild bird populations in several countries and continents, leading to the subsequent cullings of millions of birds to prevent a pandemic similar to that of the H5N1 outbreak in 2008. The first case of human transmission of avian flu, also known as bird flu, was reported by Russian authorities in February 2021, as several poultry farm workers tested positive for the virus.
Since 2020, outbreaks of avian influenza subtype H5N1 have been occurring, with cases reported from every continent as of May 2024. Some species of wild aquatic birds act as natural asymptomatic carriers of a large variety of influenza A viruses, which can infect poultry, other bird species, mammals and humans if they come into close contact with infected feces or contaminated material, or by eating infected birds. In late 2023, H5N1 was discovered in the Antarctic for the first time, raising fears of imminent spread throughout the region, potentially leading to a "catastrophic breeding failure" among animals that had not previously been exposed to avian influenza viruses. The main virus involved in the global outbreak is classified as H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, however genetic diversification with other clades such as 2.3.2.1c has seen the virus evolve in ability to cause significant outbreaks in a broader range of species including mammals.
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