Editors | Andrea Saltelli Monica Di Fiore |
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Language | English |
Subjects | Mathematical modelling Social statistics Politics |
Publisher | Oxford University Press |
Publication date | August 2023 |
Pages | 272 |
ISBN | 978-0198872412 |
The Politics of Modelling, Numbers Between Science and Policy is a multi-authors book edited by Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore and published in August 2023 by Oxford University Press.
The Politics of Modelling elaborates and expands on themes of responsible modelling from a manifesto published in the journal Nature in 2020. [1] The text is structured into three main sections: Meeting Models, The Rules, and The Rules in Practice. [2] [3] The combination of theory with policy relevant examples makes the book accessible to modellers, researchers of modelling, and policy makers. [3]
The volume comes with a foreword of Wendy Nelson Espeland and a preface of Daniel Sarewitz, with chapters from Andy Stirling, Wolfgang Drechsler, Philip B. Stark, Ting Xu, Paolo Vineis, Andrea Saltelli, and other scholars.
The book argues that models live in a “state of exception” provided by their access to a wealth of methodology of analysis, and by their epistemic authority borrowed from mathematics. This state allows models to better defend an appearance of neutrality that is appreciated by policymakers in search of a justification. [4] A review published in the Science notes that the volume incorporated insights from science and technology studies to explore modeling beyond its technical aspects [2] A second review [3] in the Minerva notes the book’s reference to the works of historians Margaret Morrison and Mary S. Morgan in considering models as mediators whereby models are simultaneously a tool, an interpretation, and a representation of the system. [5] : 205
The book contrasts the danger of cynicism with suggestions to make models serve society, based on theory, examples, and a call for participatory modelling linked to Post-normal science, sensitivity auditing and the concept of extended peer community. [3] Reviewers als noted [3] that the book ignores other ongoing efforts in enhancing or formalizing modelling practices such as the framework proposed van Voorn, [6] and the Good Modelling Practice handbook developed for water management purposes in the Netherlands. [7] Reviewers pointed to the book's failure to cover the ‘fit-for purpose’ [8] movement in modelling. [2] Other points where the book was found to be lacking by critics were the challenge of participatory modelling, related to gaming and power relations such as Arnsteinds’ ladder of participation. [3]
A review in Mathematics Magazine [9] notes the book’s attention to sensitivity analysis: "[The authors] stress the importance of sensitivity analysis, with a highly-illustrative and illuminating example that analyzes the EOQ (economic order quantity) formula."
The Arno is a river in the Tuscany region of Italy. It is the most important river of central Italy after the Tiber.
Artificial Intelligence for Environment & Sustainability (ARIES) is an international non-profit research project hosted by the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) headquartered in Bilbao, Spain. It was created to integrate scientific computational models for environmental sustainability assessment and policy-making, through ecoinformatics.
Neo institutionalism is an approach to the study of institutions that focuses on the constraining and enabling effects of formal and informal rules on the behavior of individuals and groups. New institutionalism traditionally encompasses three major strands: sociological institutionalism, rational choice institutionalism, and historical institutionalism. New institutionalism originated in work by sociologist John Meyer published in 1977.
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. A related practice is uncertainty analysis, which has a greater focus on uncertainty quantification and propagation of uncertainty; ideally, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be run in tandem.
'Biocomplexity' is a multidisciplinary field that examines and investigates emergent properties arising from the interaction of multiple biological agents, phenomena, and systems, which may range in spatiotemporal scales, biological relationships,interactions and levels from molecules to ecosystems. Research in this area investigates the nonlinear or chaotic dynamics, unpredictable behavior, self-organization, and adaptation of living systems, aware that biological systems can display characteristics that cannot be understood through the study of individual properties alone.
Post-normal science (PNS) was developed in the 1990s by Silvio Funtowicz and Jerome R. Ravetz. It is a problem-solving strategy appropriate when "facts [are] uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent", conditions often present in policy-relevant research. In those situations, PNS recommends suspending temporarily the traditional scientific ideal of truth, concentrating on quality as assessed by internal and extended peer communities.
Economic analysis of climate change is about using economic tools and models to calculate the magnitude and distribution of damages caused by climate change. It can also give guidance for the best policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change from an economic perspective. There are many economic models and frameworks. For example, in a cost–benefit analysis, the trade offs between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation are made explicit. For this kind of analysis, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are useful. Those models link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The total economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate. In general, they increase the more the global surface temperature increases. Economic analysis also looks at the economics of climate change mitigation.
The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is an open source, Windows-based computer program created by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that estimates the health benefits from improvements in air quality. State, local and international users have used BenMAP to estimate the health benefits of improved air quality. BenMAP includes information users need to start performing a benefits analysis; advanced users can customize the program to meet their needs. Because BenMAP is based on a GIS, the results can be mapped for ease of presentation.
Jerome (Jerry) Ravetz is a philosopher of science. He is best known for his books analysing scientific knowledge from a social and ethical perspective, focussing on issues of quality. He is the co-author of the NUSAP notational system and of Post-normal science. He is currently an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society, University of Oxford.
Environmental social science is the broad, transdisciplinary study of interrelations between humans and the natural environment. Environmental social scientists work within and between the fields of anthropology, communication studies, economics, geography, history, political science, psychology, and sociology; and also in the interdisciplinary fields of environmental studies, human ecology and political ecology, social epidemiology, among others.
In geology and geomorphology, an erosion surface is a surface of rock or regolith that was formed by erosion and not by construction nor fault displacement. Erosional surfaces within the stratigraphic record are known as unconformities, but not all unconformities are buried erosion surfaces. Erosion surfaces vary in scale and can be formed on a mountain range or a rock. Particularly large and flat erosion surfaces receive the names of peneplain, paleoplain, planation surface or pediplain. An example of erosion surface is road surface erosion which is caused by natural and anthropogenic factors. Erosion surface can be measured through direct, contact measurement methods and indirect, non-contact measurement methods.
Sensitivity auditing is an extension of sensitivity analysis for use in policy-relevant modelling studies. Its use is recommended - i.a. in the European Commission Impact assessment guidelines and by the European Science Academies- when a sensitivity analysis (SA) of a model-based study is meant to demonstrate the robustness of the evidence provided by the model in the context whereby the inference feeds into a policy or decision-making process.
Silvio O. Funtowicz is a philosopher of science active in the field of science and technology studies. He created the NUSAP, a notational system for characterising uncertainty and quality in quantitative expressions, and together with Jerome R. Ravetz he introduced the concept of post-normal science. He is currently a guest researcher at the Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities (SVT), University of Bergen (Norway).
Lisa Dilling is an interdisciplinary scholar who focuses on the energy transition, climate adaptation, decision making, the use of information, and science policy. She aims to improve the effectiveness of policies for climate change. Dilling is Associate Chief Scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund, an environmental non-profit that works on climate change, clean air and public health, and supporting the ability of people and nature to thrive.
The sociologyof quantification is the investigation of quantification as a sociological phenomenon in its own right.
Sensitivity analysis studies the relation between the uncertainty in a model-based the inference and the uncertainties in the model assumptions. Sensitivity analysis can play an important role in epidemiology, for example in assessing the influence of the unmeasured confounding on the causal conclusions of a study. It is also important in all mathematical modelling studies of epidemics.
Sensitivity analysis studies the relationship between the output of a model and its input variables or assumptions. Historically, the need for a role of sensitivity analysis in modelling, and many applications of sensitivity analysis have originated from environmental science and ecology.
Andrea Saltelli is an Italian scholar specializing in quantification using statistical and sociological tools. He has extended the theory of sensitivity analysis to sensitivity auditing, focusing on physical chemistry, environmental statistics, impact assessment and science for policy. He is currently Counsellor at the UPF Barcelona School of Management.
The Politics of Uncertainty. Challenges of Transformation is a multi-authors book edited by Ian Scoones and Andy Stirling, and published in 2020 by Routledge.