2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  
  Richard Burr official portrait (cropped 2).jpg Deborah K Ross.jpg
Nominee Richard Burr Deborah Ross
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote2,395,3762,128,165
Percentage51.06%45.37%

2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina results map by county.svg
2016 US Senate Election in North Carolina by congressional district.svg
NC 2016 Senate.svg
Burr:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ross:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Burr
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Burr
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held March 15. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr won re-election to a third term in office against Democratic former state representative Deborah Ross and Libertarian Sean Haugh.

Republican primary

There had been speculation that Burr might retire, [2] but he said in September 2014 that he was "planning" on running [3] and reaffirmed this in January 2015. [4] If Burr had retired, the seat was expected to draw significant interest, with potential Republican candidates including U.S. representatives George Holding, Mark Meadows, and Robert Pittenger, Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, State Senator Phil Berger, and former Ambassador to Denmark James P. Cain. [2] [3]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr
Greg
Brannon
Paul
Wright
Larry
Holmquist
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016749±3.6%48%20%4%3%24%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016734±2.5%56%20%5%3%17%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016688±3.8%45%17%7%4%27%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016437±2.8%45%14%6%6%30%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016597±4.0%56%13%4%3%24%
High Point University January 30 – February 4, 2016477±4.5%46%10%5%2%37%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016433±3.2%55%10%6%5%24%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr
Mark
Meadows
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015288± 5.8%62%9%28%

Results

Republican primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Richard Burr (incumbent) 622,074 61.41%
Republican Greg Brannon 255,03025.17%
Republican Paul Wright85,9448.48%
Republican Larry Holmquist50,0104.94%
Total votes1,013,058 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kevin
Griffin
Ernest
Reeves
Chris
Rey
Deborah
Ross
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016746±3.6%4%8%8%40%41%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016669±2.5%9%5%7%52%27%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016687±3.8%7%6%9%34%44%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016449±2.8%7%3%5%30%55%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016575±4.1%10%2%10%22%55%
High Point University January 30 – February 4, 2016478±4.5%6%4%5%19%66%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016461±3.2%14%3%10%19%55%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015555±2.8%15%-5%41%39%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015421±4.8%16%-6%33%45%

Results

Democratic primary results [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Deborah Ross 614,414 62.32%
Democratic Chris Rey162,86916.52%
Democratic Kevin Griffin115,61811.73%
Democratic Ernest Reeves93,0059.43%
Total votes985,906 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationBurrRossLink
October 13, 2016 Chapel Hill, North Carolina ParticipantParticipant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [74] TossupNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [75] Lean RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [76] TossupNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [77] TossupNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [78] TossupNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Deborah
Ross (D)
Sean
Haugh (L)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 20163,126±4.6%43%47%6%4%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College Archived January 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine November 4–6, 2016800±3.5%46%45%9%
Quinnipiac University Archived November 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 3–6, 2016870±3.3%47%47%1%4%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 20162,865±4.6%44%47%6%3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–4, 20161,250±2.8%47%48%5%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 20162,292±4.6%44%47%6%3%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 20161,886±4.6%44%47%6%3%
Public Policy Polling October 31 – November 1, 20161,169±2.9%48%45%7%
Quinnipiac University Archived November 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 27 – November 1, 2016602±4.0%45%49%1%5%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 20161,617±4.6%43%47%6%4%
SurveyUSA October 28–31, 2016659±3.9%49%43%2%6%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 20161,574±4.6%43%47%7%3%
CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016992±4.1%44%44%1%10%
Emerson College October 26–27, 2016650±3.8%48%44%3%6%
Elon University Poll Archived November 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 23–27, 2016710±3.7%44%40%3%11%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25–26, 20161,273±2.8%45%48%7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016780 LV±3.5%48%48%2%3%
1,018 RV±3.1%48%46%2%4%
Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine October 20–26, 2016702±3.7%48%47%5%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 20–23, 2016792±3.5%46%47%7%
Monmouth University October 20–23, 2016402±4.9%49%43%2%5%
Public Policy Polling October 21–22, 2016875±3.3%42%41%6%11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 17–18, 2016924±3.0%46%44%10%
SurveyUSA October 14–18, 2016651±3.9%45%43%6%6%
Civitas Institute (R) October 14–17, 2016600±4.0%44%37%4%11%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 8–16, 20161,191±0.5%42%48%7%3%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016788 LV±3.5%48%47%2%
929 RV±3.0%46%49%1%2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016743 LV±3.6%46%46%2%6%
1,025 RV±3.1%45%46%2%7%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2016600±3.9%45%43%3%8%
Suffolk University Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 10–12, 2016500±4.4%40%36%6%16%
NCSU Pack Poll Archived October 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 3–6, 2016895±3.0%39%49%12%0%
High Point University October 1–6, 2016479±4.5%47%42%6%4%
SurveyUSA September 29 – October 3, 2016656±3.9%46%44%3%7%
Bloomberg/Selzer September 29 – October 3, 2016805±3.5%44%46%11%
Quinnipiac University Archived October 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27 – October 2, 2016507±4.4%46%46%7%
Elon University Poll Archived October 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27–30, 2016660±3.8%43%44%4%8%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016861±3.3%41%39%6%14%
46%42%12%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing September 23, 2016694±3.7%39%48%13%
Meredith College Archived September 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 18–22, 2016487±4.4%35%38%1%7%19%
High Point University September 17–22, 2016404±4.9%45%43%4%6%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016734 LV±3.5%43%37%6%12%
800 RV42%36%7%13%
Public Policy Polling September 18–20, 20161,024±3.1%41%41%4%15%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College September 16–19, 2016782±3.6%42%46%11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 10–19, 2016400±4.0%46%30%3%21%
Elon University Poll Archived September 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 12–16, 2016644±3.9%43%44%4%9%
Civitas Institute (R) September 11–12, 2016600±4.0%44%39%2%15%
Suffolk University Archived September 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 5–7, 2016500±4.4%41%37%4%16%
Quinnipiac University Archived September 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 29 – September 7, 2016751±3.6%49%43%8%
CBS News/YouGov August 30 – September 2, 20161,088±4.0%40%41%2%17%
Emerson College August 27–29, 2016800±3.4%45%41%5%14%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 20161,177±3.0%46%43%12%
Monmouth University August 20–23, 2016401±4.9%45%43%4%8%
CNN/ORC August 18–23, 2016803±3.5%50%45%5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016921±3.2%44%46%1%9%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016830±3.4%41%37%5%17%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016907±3.3%48%41%1%10%
Public Policy Polling June 20–21, 2016947±3.2%40%37%5%18%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived July 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 11–20, 2016300±5.7%36%38%26%
Public Policy Polling May 20–22, 2016928±3.2%39%36%8%18%
Civitas Institute (R) April 23–25, 2016600±4.0%39%38%7%16%
Public Policy Polling April 22–24, 2016960±3.2%40%36%7%17%
Elon University Poll April 10–15, 2016621±3.9%37%33%30%
Public Policy Polling March 18–20, 2016843±3.4%40%35%7%18%
High Point University March 9–10, 20161,576±2.5%48%41%11%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%45%37%18%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%37%20%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016948±3.2%43%33%23%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 20151,214±2.8%46%35%19%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015893±3.3%43%39%18%
Public Policy Polling September 24–27, 20151,268±2.8%45%34%21%
Public Policy Polling August 12–16, 2015957±3.2%43%36%21%
Hypothetical polling
With Burr
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Kevin
Griffin (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%45%35%20%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%36%21%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016948±3.2%42%35%24%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 20151,214± 2.8%46%35%19%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015893± 3.3%44%35%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Chris
Rey (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%46%34%20%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%36%21%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016948±3.2%44%32%24%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 20151,214± 2.8%47%33%21%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015893± 3.3%45%34%21%
Public Policy Polling September 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%46%34%20%
Public Policy Polling August 12–16, 2015957± 3.2%44%37%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Dan
Blue (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%45%35%19%
Public Policy Polling May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%48%34%18%
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%47%36%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Undecided
Meeting Street Research Archived February 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine January 21–22, 2015500± 4.38%44%41%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Janet
Cowell (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%35%19%
Public Policy Polling February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%44%38%18%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%45%38%18%
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%44%38%17%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%44%37%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Anthony
Foxx (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%45%36%20%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%47%36%17%
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%44%38%18%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%35%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%49%40%11%
Elon University Poll Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 20–24, 2015677± 3.77%44%43%4%8%
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%50%38%12%
Public Policy Polling February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%50%43%7%
Meeting Street Research Archived February 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine January 21–22, 2015500± 4.38%49%45%6%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%48%42%10%
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%46%43%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Duane
Hall (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%45%35%19%
Public Policy Polling Aug 12-16, 2015957± 3.2%44%36%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Jeff
Jackson (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%48%30%22%
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%30%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Allen
Joines (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%45%33%23%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%32%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Grier
Martin (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%47%33%20%
Public Policy Polling May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%46%31%23%
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%32%23%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%33%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Mike
McIntyre (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%44%35%21%
Public Policy Polling May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%43%34%22%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%44%37%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Brad
Miller (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%46%36%18%
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%45%34%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Tom
Ross (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%44%35%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Heath
Shuler (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%42%37%20%
Public Policy Polling Aug 12-16, 2015957± 3.2%42%35%22%
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%44%36%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Beth
Wood (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%45%34%21%
With Berger
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Janet
Cowell (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%41%38%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Anthony
Foxx (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%40%37%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%45%43%13%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina [79]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Richard Burr (incumbent) 2,395,376 51.06% −3.75%
Democratic Deborah Ross 2,128,16545.37%+2.32%
Libertarian Sean Haugh 167,5923.57%+1.48%
Total votes4,691,133 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 13 U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, one from each of the state's 13 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina. Primary elections were scheduled for March 8, 2022, but were delayed by the North Carolina Supreme Court and rescheduled for May 17.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 8, 2022, to elect U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, concurrent with nationwide elections to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, alongside legislative elections to the state house and senate. Primaries were held on May 17, 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election</span>

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina</span> Election for state representatives of North Carolina to the USA House of Representatives

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the fourteen U.S. representatives from the State of North Carolina, one from all fourteen of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

References

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Official campaign websites (archived)