2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary

Last updated

2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Alabama.svg
  2016 March 3, 2020 2024  
  SC
AS  

60 Democratic National Convention delegates (52 pledged with 34 on district-level and 18 statewide; 8 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count448
Popular vote286,06574,755
Percentage63.3%16.5%

  Michael Bloomberg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Michael Bloomberg Elizabeth Warren
Home state New York Massachusetts
Delegate count00
Popular vote52,75025,847
Percentage11.7%5.7%

2020 Alabama Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
2020ALDprimary.svg
County results

Congressional district results

  Joe Biden
Pledged national
convention
delegates [1]
TypeDel.
CD1 5
CD2 5
CD3 4
CD4 3
CD5 5
CD6 4
CD7 8
PLEO7
At-large11
Total pledged delegates52

The 2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The open primary allocated 52 pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, distributed in proportion to the results of the primary, statewide and within each congressional district. The state was also given an additional 8 unpledged delegates (superdelegates), whose votes at the convention were not bound to the result of the primary.

Contents

Five candidates ran in this primary, including former vice president Joe Biden, senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, and representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii. Nine other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot. Joe Biden won by an overwhelming landslide, winning every county and congressional district in the state. He received 63% of the vote and was awarded 44 delegates. Senator Sanders came in second place, with roughly 17% of the vote and 8 delegates. No other candidate received any delegates: Bloomberg missed the threshold with 12% and Warren only got 6%. All other candidates received under 1% of the vote. [2]

Procedure

Alabama was part of 14 states and one territory holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday," [3] having joined other southern states on the date after a bill signed on June 10, 2015 shifted the date. [4]

Voting took place from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m CST. In the open primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates. The 52 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 3 and 8 were allocated to each of the state's 7 congressional districts and another 7 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 11 at-large delegates. [1] The Super Tuesday primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on the first shared date or on a March date in general. [5]

Should presidential candidates have been allocated more delegates based on the results of the primary than delegate candidates presented, then supplemental delegates would be elected at caucuses on March 28, 2020. [6] Regular national convention district delegates, whose names were electable on the primary ballot beneath the presidential candidates they were pledged for, were elected on the day of the primary and published on March 28, 2020. The state executive committee meeting was held on June 6, 2020, to vote on the 11 at-large and 7 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention; the meeting had been postponed from April 4, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The delegation also included 8 unpledged PLEO delegates: 6 members of the Democratic National Committee and 2 members of Congress (senator Doug Jones and representative Terri Sewell). [1]

Candidates

The following people filed for the presidential primary and were on the ballot in Alabama: [7]

Running

Withdrawn

There was an uncommitted option on the ballot, as well. [7]

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, between April 1, 2019 and November 23, 2020, Joe Biden raised $2,412,420.93 from Alabama-based contributions. [8] Bernie Sanders raised $306,101.54, [9] Michael Bloomberg raised $212.82, [10] Elizabeth Warren raised $129,887.99, [11] and Tulsi Gabbard raised $19,775.81. [12] [lower-alpha 4]

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregationDate
updated
Dates
polled
Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Michael
Bloomberg
Elizabeth
Warren
Tulsi
Gabbard
Other/
Undecided [lower-alpha 5]
270 to Win March 3, 2020February 28 – March 2, 202044.5%21.0%18.0%11.0%1.0%4.5%
RealClear Politics March 3, 2020Insufficient recent polling to supply an average.
FiveThirtyEight March 3, 2020until March 2, 2020 [lower-alpha 6] 40.2%18.4%15.9%10.9%0.5%14.1%
Average42.35%19.7%16.95%10.95%0.75%9.3%
Alabama primary results (March 3, 2020)63.3%16.5%11.7%5.7%0.2%2.6%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Alabama Democratic Primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
OtherUndecided
Mar 1–2, 2020Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
Swayable Archived 2020-03-03 at the Wayback Machine Mar 1–2, 2020949 (LV)± 5.0%42%18%3%20%10%8% [lower-alpha 7]
Data for Progress Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020237 (LV)± 6.4%47%18%22%12%2% [lower-alpha 8]
Jan 13, 2020Booker withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 1, 2019O'Rourke withdraws from the race
SurveyMonkey July 2–16, 2019257± 7.8%36%2%5%13%1%15%9%10% [lower-alpha 9]
Change Research March 20–23, 20191,200± 2.8%42%9%3%12%10%13%6%4% [lower-alpha 10]
14%4%16%17%27%12%9% [lower-alpha 11]

Results

Popular vote share by county
Biden--40-50%
Biden--50-60%
Biden--60-70%
Biden--70-80% Alabama Democratic presidential primary election results by county (vote share), 2020.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary [2]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [13]
Joe Biden 286,06563.2844
Bernie Sanders 74,75516.548
Michael Bloomberg 52,75011.67
Elizabeth Warren 25,8475.72
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1] 2,2500.50
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 1,4160.31
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 1,0480.23
Tulsi Gabbard 1,0380.23
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 9070.20
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1] 8750.19
Cory Booker (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 7400.16
John Delaney (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 2940.07
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 2240.05
Julian Castro (withdrawn)1840.04
Uncommitted3,7000.82
Total452,093100%52

Results by county

2020 Alabama Democratic primary

(results by county) [2]

CountyBidenSandersBloombergWarrenOthersUncommittedTotal votes
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Autauga 2,23963.0360417.0042712.021935.43681.91210.593,552
Baldwin 7,32158.242,47519.691,51612.068927.102822.24840.6712,570
Barbour 1,89974.972027.9728711.33572.25712.80170.672,533
Bibb 55956.1813813.8724324.42343.42151.5160.60995
Blount 65450.8633626.1314711.43917.08352.72231.791,286
Bullock 1,56970.201496.6735615.93441.97853.80321.432,235
Butler 1,45165.921717.7750723.03281.27321.45120.552,201
Calhoun 4,85561.421,50619.0588111.144575.781632.06430.547,905
Chambers 1,83565.1928510.1256920.21612.17531.88120.432,815
Cherokee 45553.8516319.2914717.40424.97242.84141.66845
Chilton 85662.2523116.8016812.22634.58402.91171.241,375
Choctaw 1,35159.332169.4944019.32301.321044.571365.972,277
Clarke 1,96859.932587.8693228.38431.31631.92200.613,284
Clay 48667.037410.219412.97273.72304.14141.93725
Cleburne 21960.166016.484311.81256.87113.0261.65364
Coffee 1,59763.8043317.3027611.031184.71552.20240.962,503
Colbert 2,99663.5878316.6260312.801813.84982.08511.084,712
Conecuh 1,21448.8525410.2270428.33522.091496.001124.512,485
Coosa 57465.989911.3815617.93212.41141.6160.69870
Covington 85666.3618414.2616612.87453.49302.3390.701,290
Crenshaw 55462.81707.9422125.06171.93141.5960.68882
Cullman 1,26249.8663325.0131712.521736.84823.24642.532,531
Dale 1,65668.5740116.602038.41863.56502.07190.792,415
Dallas 6,23666.908979.621,07011.482372.543713.985105.479,321
DeKalb 1,19353.6257125.6626712.001145.12542.43261.172,225
Elmore 3,08964.7773715.4559112.392595.43661.38270.574,769
Escambia 1,46268.7421810.2534116.03482.26432.02150.712,127
Etowah 3,74962.141,04817.3780813.392584.281141.89560.936,033
Fayette 40151.159812.5021727.68394.97243.0650.64784
Franklin 63357.4922220.1615514.08383.45312.82222.001,101
Geneva 51162.6210713.1113816.91323.92212.5770.86816
Greene 1,78272.381917.7640616.49210.85532.1590.372,462
Hale 1,32751.671756.8195036.99441.71542.10180.702,568
Henry 1,02074.8316712.251087.92221.61372.7190.661,363
Houston 3,91269.2392816.424327.642384.211041.84370.655,651
Jackson 1,03955.5640321.5526714.28894.76492.62231.231,870
Jefferson 67,57566.4416,14915.888,7298.587,3117.191,5291.504110.40101,704
Lamar 32461.485510.4411722.20112.09163.0440.76527
Lauderdale 3,56854.831,54723.7774011.374707.221362.09460.716,507
Lawrence 1,35565.5925612.3934316.60683.29331.60110.532,066
Lee 7,36958.812,60920.821,0708.541,2189.722221.77430.3412,531
Limestone 4,12760.891,41120.8270110.344005.901031.52360.536,778
Lowndes 2,40669.74%38611.1943312.55541.571203.48511.483,450
Macon 3,06767.4548110.5865414.381663.651212.66581.284,547
Madison 25,91657.5410,48723.284,1139.133,6228.047201.601810.4045,039
Marengo 2,12062.122417.0688225.84521.52902.64280.823,413
Marion 39856.8613419.1410414.86355.00121.71172.43700
Marshall 1,58152.5277725.8136412.091906.31822.72160.533,010
Mobile 26,92366.736,61216.394,27710.601,5853.937441.842070.5140,348
Monroe 1,71669.872058.3540516.49381.55702.85220.902,456
Montgomery 23,46567.944,50213.044,17812.101,4844.306291.822780.8034,536
Morgan 3,95459.561,25018.8391713.813395.111332.00460.696,639
Perry 2,09474.971786.3729610.60692.47923.29642.292,793
Pickens 1,14252.771969.0675234.75291.34411.8940.182,164
Pike 1,78668.3243316.562198.381054.02572.18140.542,614
Randolph 52249.8612211.6532631.14282.67373.53121.151,047
Russell 3,22169.7556612.2663413.731112.40641.39220.484,618
Shelby 9,54356.873,79522.621,4158.431,6729.962831.69710.4216,779
St. Clair 2,26857.4083521.1345711.572837.16832.10250.633,951
Sumter 2,01261.192898.7970621.47571.731203.651043.16%3,288
Talladega 4,61769.1280312.0291713.731972.951271.90190.28%6,680
Tallapoosa 1,76265.7030211.2643816.33833.09843.13130.482,682
Tuscaloosa 11,82560.263,55218.102,17511.081,6848.583031.54840.4319,623
Walker 1,39057.4453822.2326010.741365.62662.73301.242,420
Washington 1,10960.171568.4624613.35372.01985.3219710.691,843
Wilcox 1,86460.282849.1865421.15622.011595.14692.23%3,092
Winston 26652.3611723.037514.76326.30132.5650.98508
Total286,06563.2874,75516.5452,75011.6725,8475.728,9761.993,7000.82452,093

Analysis

Joe Biden's victory in Alabama was near-guaranteed. Four years earlier, Hillary Clinton carried the state with 77.84% against Bernie Sanders and won every county and congressional district, a feat repeated by Biden. [14] FiveThirtyEight, which made state-by-state predictions prior to the primaries, gave Biden a 92% chance at winning Alabama, a landslide over Sanders' 5% chance. [15] Aggregate polling from FiveThirtyEight right before election day showed Biden up with 40.2%, Sanders at 18.4%, Bloomberg at 15.9%, Warren at 10.9%, Gabbard at 0.5%, and other/undecided 14.1%. [16] 270toWin had Biden ahead as well with 44.5% of support, 23.5 percentage points ahead of Bernie Sanders at 21%. [17]

The week before, Biden swept the South Carolina primary by a 28.88% margin over Sanders, reviving Biden's candidacy after crushing losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. [18] Additionally, the moderate wing of the primary, consisting of former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota, representative Beto O'Rourke from Texas's 16th district, and Senator Kamala Harris from California coalesced behind and endorsed Biden while the progressive wing, consisting of Senators Sanders and Warren, remained fractured. [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] Thus, right before Super Tuesday, Biden's support surged.

Biden's best performance, regionally, was in the Black Belt, a historically Democratic region due to high proportions of African Americans.

On the same day, Biden carried all of the other southern Super Tuesday states of Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, and his upset victories in Maine, Massachusetts, and Minnesota catapulted him to frontrunner status. [24] He would go on to lose the state in the general election, but retained his resounding victories among Black voters in the Black Belt.

Exit polls

2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary by subgroup (Edison exit polling) [25]
Demographic subgroupBidenSandersBloombergWarren% of

total vote

Total vote63.2816.5411.675.7297
Ideology
Liberals 552411854
Moderates 74810436
Conservatives 6052209
Party
Democrats 671411674
Republicans 3
Independents 512412723
Gender
Men612011539
Women651412661
Race/ethnicity
White 572210746
Black 721013449
Latino 3
Asian 0
Other2
Age
18–29 years old3046121010
30–44 years old54249823
45–64 years old671113738
65 and older78612128
Sexual orientation
LGBT 7
Heterosexual 641512593
Education
Never attended college661513418
Some college education641911328
Associate degree 641414517
Bachelor's degree 562012919
Postgraduate degree671371018
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 69812618
Healthcare 621515547
Climate change 64266311
Income inequality 532671018
Region
North 572213719
North Central591814619
Birmingham/South Central68149544
South 641514418
Area type
Urban731210341
Suburban66215520
Rural521917838

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Candidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Candidate withdrew during the first days of the absentee voting period.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  4. Tulsi Gabbard's financial data for her 2020 presidential campaign is filed under the Tulsi Aloha PAC.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  6. FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  7. Steyer with 2%; Klobuchar with 1%; Gabbard with 0%; "Other" with 5%
  8. Gabbard with 2%
  9. Sestak with 3%; Bennet with 2%; de Blasio, Bullock, Delaney, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, and Ryan with 0%
  10. Castro, Klobuchar, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Cuomo, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  11. Klobuchar with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, and Yang with 1%; Messam and Williamson with 0%

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References

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