Bennelong by-election, 2017

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Bennelong by-election, 2017

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The Bennelong seat in the House of Representatives
Registered 106,534
Turnout 85.96% Decrease2.svg 5.70

 First partySecond party
  John Alexander cropped.jpg Kristina KeneallyCrop.jpg
Candidate John Alexander Kristina Keneally
Party Liberal Labor
Popular vote46,17937,966
Percentage45.04%35.75%
SwingDecrease2.svg5.37Increase2.svg7.27
TPP 54.88%45.12%
TPP swingDecrease2.svg4.84Increase2.svg4.84

Division of BENNELONG 2016.png

MP before election

John Alexander
Liberal

Elected MP

John Alexander
Liberal

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Bennelong was held on 16 December 2017.

Australian House of Representatives Lower house of Australia

The House of Representatives is the lower house of the bicameral Parliament of Australia, the upper house being the Senate. Its composition and powers are established in Chapter I of the Constitution of Australia.

Division of Bennelong Australian federal electoral division

The Division of Bennelong is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1949 and is named after Bennelong, an Aboriginal man befriended by the first Governor of New South Wales, Arthur Phillip.

Contents

Previous incumbent and Liberal candidate John Alexander won the by-election despite a 4.8 percentage point two-party swing to Labor candidate Kristina Keneally which made the seat marginal. [1] [2] [3] [4]

Liberal Party of Australia Australian political party

The Liberal Party of Australia is a major centre-right political party in Australia, one of the two major parties in Australian politics, along with the centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP). It was founded in 1944 as the successor to the United Australia Party (UAP).

John Alexander (Australian politician) Australian tennis player and politician

John Gilbert Alexander is an Australian politician and former professional tennis player.

Two-party-preferred vote

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 45%, Labor 55%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

Background

Amid the 2017 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis, the trigger for the by-election was the resignation of Liberal incumbent John Alexander effective 11 November 2017. Following the increased media attention on the citizenship status of parliamentarians, Alexander asked British authorities for evidence of his British-born father renouncing British citizenship. They were unable to find any, leaving Alexander unable to demonstrate he was not a British citizen by descent, meaning he would be ineligible under Section 44 of the Constitution to sit in the Parliament of Australia. [5] Alexander subsequently renounced his British citizenship, in order to nominate for election again. [5]

Speaker of the House of Representatives Tony Smith issued the writ for the election on 13 November 2017, the same day that Alexander submitted his resignation. [6]

Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives position of speaker in Australian parliament

The Speaker of the House of Representatives is the presiding officer of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Parliament of Australia. The presiding officer in the upper house is the President of the Senate. The office of Speaker was created by section 35 of the Constitution of Australia. The authors of the Constitution intended that the House of Representatives should as nearly as possible be modelled on the House of Commons of the United Kingdom.

Tony Smith (Victorian politician) Australian politician, born 1967

Anthony David Hawthorn Smith is an Australian politician who is the 30th and current Speaker of the House of Representatives, assuming office on 10 August 2015. He has been a Liberal Party member of the House of Representatives since 2001, representing the Division of Casey, Victoria.

Key dates

Writ of election Official writ calling for an election

A writ of election is a writ issued ordering the holding of an election. In Commonwealth countries writs are the usual mechanism by which general elections are called and are issued by the head of state or their representative. In the United States, it is more commonly used to call a special election for a political office.

The electoral roll is a list of persons who are eligible to vote in a particular electoral district and who are registered to vote, if required in a particular jurisdiction. An electoral roll has a number of functions, especially to streamline voting on election day. Voter registration is also used to combat electoral fraud by enabling authorities to verify an applicant's identity and entitlement to a vote, and to ensure a person doesn't vote multiple times. In jurisdictions where voting is compulsory, the electoral roll is used to indicate who has failed to vote. Most jurisdictions maintain permanent electoral rolls while some jurisdictions compile new electoral rolls before each election. In some jurisdictions, people to be selected for jury or other civil duties are chosen from an electoral roll.

Early voting is a process by which voters in a public election can vote prior to the scheduled election day. Early voting can take place remotely, such as via postal voting, or in person, usually in designated early voting polling stations. The availability and time periods for early voting vary among jurisdictions and types of election. The goals of early voting are usually to increase voter participation and relieve congestion at polling stations on election day.

As at least 33 days must elapse between the issue of a writ and the date of a by-election, the earliest Saturday that the by-election could take place was on 16 December.

Candidates

12 candidates in ballot paper order [7]
PartyCandidateBackground
  Liberty Alliance Tony RobinsonOrthopaedic surgeon [8]
  #Sustainable Wesley FolitarikUrban planner [9]
  Science James JanssonEntrepreneur [10]
  Liberal John Alexander Bennelong MP 2010−2017 and former professional tennis player [11] [12]
  Labor Kristina Keneally Journalist, NSW state MP 2003−2012 and 42nd Premier of New South Wales 2009−2011 [13] [14]
  People’s James PlatterFormer teacher, writer and former Army Reservist [15]
  Greens Justin AlickOverseas aid and sustainable development advocate [16]
  Affordable Housing Anthony ZiebellSoftware engineer [7] and tenancy advocate [17]
  Non-Custodial Parents Anthony Fels Former member of the Western Australian Legislative Council [7]
  Conservatives Joram RichaManager [7] and conservative activist [18]
  Christian Democrats Gui Dong CaoPastor [7]
  Progressives Chris GoldingFormer policy officer in the NSW Department of Primary Industries [19]

Events

Following the win by Barnaby Joyce in a similarly Section 44 triggered by-election in the Division of New England on 2 December 2017, the Liberal-National coalition maintained its one-seat majority in the Australian House of Representatives. [20] However, a loss in Bennelong would have left the government reliant on crossbench support. Given this unusual opportunity for an Opposition to destabilise the government's position in parliament outside of a general election, the Labor Party chose former New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally as a high-profile candidate. [21]

Barnaby Joyce Australian politician, 17th Deputy Prime Minister of Australia

Barnaby Thomas Gerard Joyce is an Australian politician. He served as the leader of the National Party from February 2016 to February 2018, and was Deputy Prime Minister of Australia from February 2016 to October 2017 and from December 2017 to February 2018.

Division of New England Australian federal electoral division

The Division of New England is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division is located in the north-east of the state, adjoining the border with Queensland. The division was proclaimed in 1900, and was one of the original 65 divisions to be contested at the first federal election. It is named after the New England region in northern New South Wales.

In the months prior to the by-election, the 2017 Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey was conducted asking the question, "Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?". Bennelong was among 12 of 47 federal electoral divisions in New South Wales and among 17 of 150 seats nationally to record a majority No response; with Yes on 49.8 percent and No on 50.2 percent, compared to the New South Wales result of Yes on 57.8 percent and No on 42.2 percent, and the national result of Yes on 61.6 percent and No on 38.4 percent. Parliament passed legislation to legalise same-sex marriage on 8 December 2017. [22] [23] [24]

On 12 December 2017, Labor Senator Sam Dastyari announced his intention to resign from the Australian Senate, after weeks of controversy over his links and interactions with Chinese donors. [25] Commentary deriving from Dastyari's statement was mixed, with some commentators signalling it might damage the Labor brand with voters right before they headed to the polls while others pointed to the large Chinese-Australian community in the electorate who might have got an impression that the government was pushing a "China-phobic narrative", given the pressure placed on Dastyari to resign in the weeks prior. [26]

On 14 December 2017, it was revealed that Liberal candidate John Alexander had failed the requirement to declare rental income to the parliamentary register of members' interests from his $1440-a-day 100-acre $4.8-million property in the New South Wales Southern Highlands which he had purchased in June 2017. [27] [28] [29]

Results

Bennelong by-election, 2017 [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Liberal John Alexander 37,89845.04−5.37
Labor Kristina Keneally 30,08535.75+7.27
Greens Justin Alick5,6886.76−2.37
Conservatives Joram Richa3,6094.29+4.29
Christian Democrats Gui Dong Cao2,6263.12−3.28
Science James Jansson1,0411.24+1.24
Sustainable Australia Wesley Folitarik9951.18+1.18
Affordable Housing Anthony Ziebell7420.88+0.88
Liberty Alliance Tony Robinson7190.85+0.85
Progressives Chris Golding4260.51+0.51
People's Party James Platter1860.22+0.22
Non-Custodial Parents Anthony Fels 1320.16+0.16
Total formal votes84,14591.88−3.03
Informal votes7,4368.12+3.03
Turnout 91,58185.96−5.70
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal John Alexander 46,17954.88−4.84
Labor Kristina Keneally 37,96645.12+4.84
Liberal hold Swing −4.84

Previous incumbent and Liberal candidate John Alexander won the by-election despite a 4.8 percentage point two-party swing to Labor candidate Kristina Keneally which made the seat marginal. [1] [2] [3]

The Liberal primary vote, however, is the lowest on record in Bennelong's 68-year history, including the 2007 Bennelong outcome which was the only election in which the Liberals failed to win Bennelong. [30] [31]

Polling

Bennelong by-election polling
DateFirmSample Primary vote Two-party vote
LIBALPGRNOTHLIBALP
2017 by-election45.0%35.8%6.8%12.4%54.9%45.1%
13–14 Dec 2017Galaxy [32] 52440%38%8%14%51%49%
12 Dec 2017ReachTEL [33] 81941.3%36.3%7.5%14.9%53%47%
9–10 Dec 2017Newspoll [34] 52939%39%9%13%50%50%
16 Nov 2017ReachTEL [35] 86441.6%34.5%5.9%18.0%53%47%
15 Nov 2017Galaxy [35] 57942%39%−−50%50%
2016 election 50.4%28.5%9.1%12.0%59.7%40.3%

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 Tobin, Mark; Carter, Lucy (17 December 2017). "Bennelong by-election: Liberal John Alexander wins, Labor buoyed by swing". ABC News. Retrieved 20 December 2017.
  2. 1 2 Green, Antony. "2017 Bennelong by-election". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 20 December 2017.
  3. 1 2 "Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status". Australian Electoral Commission. 18 January 2016. Retrieved 20 December 2017.
  4. 1 2 "Bennelong By-election". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 5 January 2018.
  5. 1 2 Robertson, James (17 November 2017). "John Alexander confirms eligibility to stand in byelection on advice from UK Home Office". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 November 2017.
  6. ↑ "Service Plan: Bennelong By-election 2017" (PDF). Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 "2017 Bennelong by-election candidate details". Australian Electoral Commission . Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  8. ↑ "Tasmania". Australian Liberty Alliance. Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  9. ↑ "Bennelong by-election 2017". Sustainable Australia. Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  10. ↑ Jannson, James (23 November 2017). "Bennelong By-Election Candidate, Science Party Leader James Jansson" (Press release). Science Party. Retrieved 23 November 2017.
  11. ↑ "Liberal backbencher John Alexander to resign after raising citizenship concerns". ABC News (Australia). 11 November 2017. Retrieved 11 November 2017.
  12. ↑ Raue, Ben (13 November 2017). "Bennelong won't be an easy win for Labor – the government's counting on it". The Guardian. Retrieved 13 November 2017.
  13. ↑ Knaus, Christopher; Murphy, Katharine (14 November 2017). "Kristina Keneally will run against John Alexander in Bennelong byelection - politics live". The Guardian. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
  14. ↑ Gartrell, Adam (14 November 2017). "Former NSW premier Kristina Keneally to stand for Labor in Bennelong byelection". The Age. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
  15. ↑ "Candidates for Federal Election". Australian People's Party. Retrieved 24 November 2017.
  16. ↑ Karp, Paul (21 November 2017). "Bennelong byelection: Greens focus on house prices in bid to unseat Alexander". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 November 2017.
  17. ↑ "Affordable Housing Party goes head to head for the seat of Bennelong". domain.com.au. 16 November 2017. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  18. ↑ "Subscribe - dailytelegraph". www.dailytelegraph.com.au. Retrieved 23 November 2017.
  19. ↑ "Chris Golding for Bennelong - About" . Retrieved 21 November 2017.
  20. ↑ "Barnaby Joyce wins New England by-election in a landslide". The Australian. 3 December 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  21. ↑ "Kristina Keneally: Former NSW premier to go up against John Alexander in Bennelong by-election". abc.net.au. 15 November 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  22. ↑ "Results for New South Wales". Australian Bureau of Statistics . 15 November 2017. Retrieved 15 November 2017.
  23. ↑ "Full results of Australia's vote for same-sex marriage, electorate by electorate – interactive". The Guardian. 15 November 2017. Retrieved 15 November 2017.
  24. ↑ Wade, Matt (15 November 2017). "Same-sex marriage postal survey: how Sydney electorates voted". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 15 November 2017.
  25. ↑ "Sam Dastyari quits as Labor senator over China connections". The Guardian. 12 December 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  26. ↑ "Sam Dastyari resignation fuels fight for Bennelong, signals crackdown on China influence". Sydney Morning Herald. 12 December 2017. Retrieved 17 December 2017.
  27. ↑ Massola, James (14 December 2017). "John Alexander has not declared rental income from his $1400 per day country estate". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  28. ↑ Hutchens, Christopher; Murphy, Katharine (14 December 2017). "John Alexander on back foot in Bennelong over rental income declaration". The Guardian. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  29. ↑ "Register of Members' Interests – 45th Parliament: Former Members of the 45th Parliament". Parliament of Australia" . Retrieved 2 January 2018.
  30. ↑ Electoral results for the Division of Bennelong referenced with results sourced from Psephologist Dr Adam Carr's Australian electoral archive – lowest Liberal primary vote in Bennelong history was 45.5 percent in 2007 amid 13 candidates.
  31. ↑ Leaders’ reactions to Bennelong show why politicians so unpopular: Herald Sun 18 December 2017
  32. ↑ Bowe, William (15 December 2017). "Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
  33. ↑ Bowe, William (14 December 2017). "ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  34. ↑ Bowe, William (12 December 2017). "ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 14 December 2017.
  35. 1 2 Bowe, William (17 November 2017). "Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 18 November 2017.
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