Decker Eveleth | |
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Occupation(s) | Research analyst, open source intelligence analyst |
Academic background | |
Education | |
Academic work | |
Discipline | Imagery analysis and Open-source intelligence |
Institutions | James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey |
Notable works |
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Decker Eveleth is an associate research analyst at the CNA Corporation who specializes in utilizing satellite imagery and mixed methods to assess ballistic and cruise missile forces in the Middle East and Asia. [1] [2] [3] His work on tracking ballistic missiles has been featured in the Washington Post , The Economist and Foreign Policy . Eveleth received international attention in 2021 for identifying the construction of 119 nuclear ICBM silos under construction in China. [4] In 2024,he was able to identify the probable deployment site of Russia's nuclear-powered 9M730 Burevestnik cruise missile. [5]
Eveleth received a BA from Reed College and an MA from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. [2] He is a recipient of the National Science Foundation’s Graduate Research Fellowship and has written for the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. [1] Eveleth served as a graduate research assistant at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies working on the open-source intelligence team. [1] He has been a guest speaker for the Nuclear Policy Working Group at Berkeley. [6]
Eveleth's work has focused on tracking the growth of China's nuclear arsenal. [7] In 2020,Eveleth and other researchers created an open-source map showing the location of each Chinese missile brigade and the type of missile assigned to it. [8] Eveleth used a combination of open source intelligence methods and satellite imagery analysis to build the database of missile deployments,which identified at least 600 ballistic and cruise missile armed launchers operated by the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. [8] His research highlighted the growing threat that many of China’s new missiles are dual-capable (meaning they can be armed with either nuclear or conventional high-explosive warheads). [8] This work would later be expanded into a 2023 report outlining the PLA Rocket Force complete order of battle. [9]
In June 2021,Eveleth's tracking of solid-fueled nuclear missile silos in China resulted in the identification of 119 new ICBM silos intended for nuclear missiles under construction near Yumen,China,and was featured on the front page of the Washington Post. [4] Eveleth reviewed commercial satellite imagery from Planet Labs,utilizing the fact that Planet frequently updates their public photo database,to track the timing of silo construction. [7] [10] Eveleth identified that building began in March 2020,with most construction occurring after February 2021,and concluded that the silos were likely meant for the DF-41 ICBM,which can reach the U.S. mainland. [7] According to non-proliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis,"given the relatively small footprint of high-resolution satellite images (30 square miles),it would have been impossible to detect and characterize this facility without high-cadence,wide-area imagery of the kind provided by Planet’s constellation of Dove satellites. The near-daily imaging at 3 m provided enough coverage to characterize the entire 700 square mile site at a resolution sufficient to identify the construction shelters." [10]
According to the Arms Control Association,Eveleth's work "has prompted a public debate about how the United States and China can avoid an arms race driven by mutual concerns about vulnerability to nuclear attack." [7] As a result of the discovery,Eveleth was nominated for the Arms Control Person of the Year Award,which he lost to Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard and the Government of Mexico. [11] Eveleth's discovery also earned him a feature in Bloomberg's "50:The People and Ideas That Defined Global Business in 2021". [12] The analysis prompted condemnation from Hu Xijin,former editor-in-chief and Chinese Communist Party Committee Secretary of the Global Times. [7] [13]
In October 2024,following the Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel,Eveleth analyzed satellite imagery of Nevatim Air Base,identifying 32 impact points. [14] Subsequent analysis from Eveleth further identified the expected circular error probability (CEP) of Iran's missiles to be poor,between 700-1000m,making them unsuitable for use against hardened aircraft shelters like those used to protect Israel's F-35 fleet (a presumed target of the attack). [15] [16] [17]
Following Israel's retaliatory airstrikes,Eveleth and former UN weapons inspector David Albright independently assessed that Israel struck facilities at the Parchin military complex and the Khojir missile production site. [18] [19] Again utilizing Planet Labs satellite imagery,Eveleth identified the destruction of three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse at Parchin,as well as two hits on similar fuel mixing facilities at Khojir. [18] [20] Eveleth noted that the solid-fuel mixers Israel claimed to have been targeting are difficult to make,and export controlled,and thus very expensive to produce and replace;and that as a result,Israel may have "significantly hampered Iran's ability to mass produce missiles". [18] [20]
Eveleth was part of a group of arms control analysts and academics from the Middlebury Institute,who roundly criticized MIT professor Theodore Postol's findings [21] regarding the similarities between the North Korean Hwasong-18 and Russian RT-2PM2 Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles. [22]
In 2024,Eveleth identified the probable deployment site of Russia's nuclear-powered 9M730 Burevestnik ("Skyfall") cruise missile at the Vologda-20 nuclear storage facility. [5] Eveleth assessed that the site contains nine fixed launch positions located in three groups inside high berms to shield them from attack or accidental damage,linked by roads to missile-handling facilities,and to five nuclear warhead storage bunkers all present at the same site,indicating that the site was used for "a large,fixed missile system" to be maintained on alert status;and that the only large,fixed missile system that Russia is currently developing was the Skyfall. [5] [23]
Eveleth is the author of the Hors d'Oeuvers of Battle blog,where he publishes independent analysis. He additionally contributes to Foreign Policy, [3] and to NK News [2] and is a frequent collaborator with non-proliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis on the Arms Control Wonk blog and podcast.
An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a ballistic missile with a range greater than 5,500 kilometres (3,400 mi),primarily designed for nuclear weapons delivery. Conventional,chemical,and biological weapons can also be delivered with varying effectiveness,but have never been deployed on ICBMs. Most modern designs support multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVs),allowing a single missile to carry several warheads,each of which can strike a different target. The United States,Russia,China,France,India,the United Kingdom,Israel,and North Korea are the only countries known to have operational ICBMs. Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed state that does not possess ICBMs.
North Korea has a military nuclear weapons program and,as of 2024,is estimated to have an arsenal of approximately 50 nuclear weapons and sufficient production of fissile material for six to seven nuclear weapons per year. North Korea has also stockpiled a significant quantity of chemical and biological weapons. In 2003,North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Since 2006,the country has conducted six nuclear tests at increasing levels of expertise,prompting the imposition of sanctions.
Jericho is a general designation given to a loosely-related family of deployed ballistic missiles developed by Israel since the 1960s. The name is taken from the first development contract for the Jericho I signed between Israel and Dassault in 1963,with the codename as a reference to the Biblical city of Jericho. As with some other Israeli high tech weapons systems,exact details are classified,though there are observed test data,public statements by government officials,and details in open literature especially about the Shavit satellite launch vehicle.
The Hwasong-7,also known as Nodong-1,is a single-stage,mobile liquid propellant medium-range ballistic missile developed by North Korea. Developed in the mid-1980s,it is a scaled-up adaptation of the Soviet R-17 Elbrus missiles,more commonly known by its NATO reporting name "Scud". The inventory is estimated to be around 200–300 missiles. US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center estimates that as of June 2017 fewer than 100 launchers were operationally deployed.
The RT-2PM2 «Topol-M» is one of the most recent intercontinental ballistic missiles to be deployed by Russia,and the first to be developed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It was developed from the RT-2PM Topol mobile intercontinental ballistic missile.
The Taepodong-2 is a designation used to indicate what was initially believed to be a North Korean two- or three-stage ballistic missile design that is the successor to the Taepodong-1 technology demonstrator. In 2012,the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that the Taepodong-2 had not been deployed as a missile. The Taepodong-2 is the technology base for the Unha space launch vehicle,and was likely not intended as ICBM technology.
The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force,formerly the Second Artillery Corps,is the strategic and tactical missile force of the People's Republic of China. The PLARF is the 4th branch of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and controls China's arsenal of land-based ballistic,hypersonic,cruise missiles—both nuclear and conventional. The armed service branch was established on 1 July 1966 and made its first public appearance on 1 October 1984. The headquarters for operations is located at Qinghe,Beijing. The PLARF is under the direct command of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission (CMC).
Theodore A. Postol is a professor emeritus of Science,Technology,and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Prior to his work at MIT,he worked at Argonne National Laboratory,the Pentagon,and Stanford University.
The Korean People's Army Strategic Force,previously known as the Korean People's Army Strategic Rocket Force,is a military branch of the Korean People's Army (KPA) founded in 2012 that operates surface-to-surface missiles in the nuclear and conventional strike roles. It is mainly armed with ballistic missiles. The inventory includes domestic and Soviet designs.
The Hwasong-6 is a North Korean tactical ballistic missile. It is derived from the Hwasong-5,itself a derivative of the Soviet R-17 Elbrus. It carries the NATO reporting name Scud.
A Scud missile is one of a series of tactical ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It was exported widely to both Second and Third World countries. The term comes from the NATO reporting name attached to the missile by Western intelligence agencies. The Russian names for the missile are the R-11,and the R-17Elbrus. The name Scud has been widely used to refer to these missiles and the wide variety of derivative variants developed in other countries based on the Soviet design.
A missile launch facility,also known as an underground missile silo,launch facility (LF),or nuclear silo,is a vertical cylindrical structure constructed underground,for the storage and launching of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs),intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs),medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). Similar facilities can be used for anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs).
This is a comparison list of intercontinental ballistic missiles developed by various countries.
The Hwasong-13,also known as Nodong-C or KN-08 under the U.S. naming convention,is a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile believed to be under development by North Korea. The changes shown in the mock-up displayed in October 2015 indicated a change from a three- to two-stage design.
The RS-28 Sarmat,often colloquially referred to as Satan II by media outlets,is a three-stage Russian silo-based,liquid-fueled,HGV-capable and FOBS-capable super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) produced by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau. It is intended to replace the Soviet R-36M ICBM in Russia's arsenal.
Jeffrey Lewis is an American expert in nuclear nonproliferation and geopolitics,currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey,and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program. He has written two books on China's nuclear weapons,and numerous journal and magazine articles,blog posts,and podcasts on nonproliferation and related topics.
The Hwasong-14,also known under alternative US designation codename KN-20,is a mobile intercontinental ballistic missile developed by North Korea. It had its maiden flight on 4 July 2017,which coincided with the United States' Independence Day. North Korea is the only known operator of this missile.
Fattah-1 is an Iranian medium-range ballistic missile developed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and unveiled in June 2023. It is Iran's first hypersonic ballistic missile. According to Iran,its high maneuverability and speed helps it to evade missile defense systems. In November 2023,Iran unveiled a newer version of the missile,Fattah-2.
Well, look what Decker found.
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