October 2024 Israeli strikes on Iran

Last updated

Operation Days of Repentance
2024 Israeli strikes on Iran
Part of the 2024 Iran–Israel conflict and the Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present)
IDF Squadron 116. I.jpg
An Israeli F-35I "Adir", the model of aircraft reported to have taken part in the strikes.
Type Missile strike
Location
Planned byFlag of Israel.svg  Israel
TargetSee § Locations
Date26 October 2024
Executed byIsrael Air Force Flag.svg  Israeli Air Force
OutcomePer US and Israel:

Per Iran:

  • Minor to moderate damage to Iran's military infrastructure [4] [6]
CasualtiesTotal: 5 killed
4 Iranian Army officers killed [7] [8]
1 Iranian security guard killed [9]

On 26 October 2024, Israel launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran and other locations in Iraq, and Syria, codenamed Operation Days of Repentance [10] (Hebrew : מבצע ימי תשובה) by Israel. It was the largest attack on Iran attack since the Iran–Iraq War. [11] [12] Israel said the strikes were launched in response to the Iranian strikes against Israel earlier that month. [13]

Contents

Israel informed Iran a few hours ahead of the attack what would be targeted, and warned Iran against responding. [14] [15] [16] According to the Israeli military, the strikes targeted Iranian military sites, including air-defense batteries, a UAV factory, and missile production facilities, with all Israeli aircraft returning safely. The Israeli attack involved over 100 aircraft, including F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters, traveling 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) and using heavy munitions. Some of the aircraft breached Iranian airspace. [17] A preceding attack on Syria reportedly targeted radar defenses. [18] An Iranian news agency associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that military installations in western and southwestern Tehran, as well as bases in the Ilam and Khuzestan provinces, were attacked. Four Iranian Army soldiers were reportedly killed. [8] An Israeli official said that following the strikes targeting Iranian air defence and ballistic missile sites, Israel could now operate with greater freedom in Iranian airspace. [19]

The IDF stated it has completed "precise and targeted strikes" in response to "months of continuous attacks" from Iran and its proxies, [11] as well as a recent barrage of Iranian missiles on Israel on 1 October. US officials confirmed that the US was briefed in advance but did not participate in the operation. Following the attack Iran imposed military censorship over its damaged sites. [20]

According to a U.S. assessment, the strikes crippled Iran's missile production capability, estimating it would take at least a year for Iran to rebuild the destroyed components necessary to resume production. [1] U.S. and Israeli officials said that most of Iran's air defense network, including nearly all of its advanced S-300 systems, were destroyed, paving the way for potential future Israeli strikes. [2] [3]

Background

Earlier skirmishes

Iran and Israel have been engaged in a covert conflict for years. [21] Iran has utilized the "Axis of Resistance", a network of Iranian-backed militant groups, to target Israeli interests, [21] [22] [23] while Israel has reportedly carried out assassinations of high-ranking Iranian officials and nuclear scientists and launched cyberattacks against Iran. [21] [11] Israel views Iran as its primary threat due to the Iranian leadership's rhetoric advocating for Israel's destruction, their backing of militant organizations, and the nation's nuclear program. [11] Tensions between the countries have escalated further following Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel. [24] [21] Following the attack, factions within the "Axis of Resistance," notably Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen's Houthi movement, launched assaults on Israel and Red Sea shipping, triggering the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and the Red Sea Crisis. Iran has poured considerable resources into bolstering these groups’ military capabilities and fostering cohesion, aiming for a coordinated Axis effort to dismantle the Jewish state in any large-scale confrontation with Israel. [22] [23]

On 1 April 2024, Israel bombed a consular building in the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria. The attack killed 16 people, including multiple Iranian officers and proxy fighters. Most notably, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a commander for the Quds Force, was killed in the airstrike. [25] Iranian officials in the building were allegedly meeting with Palestinian militant leaders at the time of the attack. [26] In response, Iran and its proxies struck Israel on 13 April, targeting military bases. [27] On 19 April, Israel struck an air defense facility in Isfahan, Iran in retaliation. [28] The strikes were limited and de-escalated tensions. [29]

On 31 July, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran by an apparent Israeli attack. [30] Iran vowed to retaliate. [31]

On 17 September, Israel adopted a new war goal: to return civilians displaced by Hezbollah back to their homes in northern Israel. [32] Later that day and the next, thousands of communications devices (including pagers and walkie-talkies) exploded simultaneously across Lebanon and Syria, with Israel aiming to attack Hezbollah members. The attack killed 42 people. [33] In response, Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities and towns, including Nazareth, on 22 September. [34] On 23 September, Israel killed two of Hezbollah's top commanders, Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wehbe, in Dahieh, south of Beirut. [35] On 23 September, Israel began a series of strikes in southern Lebanon. [36]

On 27 September, an Israeli airstrike in Dahieh killed Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah. [37] [38] The attack also killed Ali Karaki, the Commander of Hezbollah's Southern Front [38] and Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of the IRGC and commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon. [39]

In response to the killings of Haniyeh, Nilforoushan, and Nasrallah, Iran struck Israel, damaging military bases, [40] in what was the largest attack of the 2024 Iran–Israel conflict. [41] Israel said it had shot down most of the missiles and there had been no harm to its Air Force's capabilities. [42] [43] The US Navy and Jordan also reported intercepting missiles. [44] The two fatalities caused by the attacks were a Palestinian man killed directly by missile debris and an Israeli man indirectly. [45] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a "big mistake" and vowed that Iran "will pay" for it. [46]

According to US officials speaking anonymously, Israel assured the Biden administration it would refrain from targeting Iran's nuclear and oil facilities, focusing instead on military sites. With the 2024 United States presidential election nearing, American officials worried about being pulled into a wider Middle Eastern conflict. [21] US President Joe Biden asked Netanyahu to plan a retaliation that would "deter further attacks against Israel while reducing risks of further escalation." [47]

Leak of intelligence on the attack

On 18 October 2024, two leaked classified foreign intelligence documents from the United States' National Security Agency and the United States Geospatial Intelligence Agency were posted in Telegram channels. The leaked documents were related to the Israeli plans to retaliate against Iran for its strikes against Israel in October 2024. They revealed detailed plans documented by the United States regarding Israeli military measures including Air Force exercises, military drone operations, and the relocation of advanced munitions, as well as satellite imaging conducted by United States intelligence on the Israeli Air Force. One of the documents suggested something that Israel and the United States always declined to confirm publicly: Israel's possession of nuclear weapons. The leaks also revealed the significant contribution of the United States' spying on Iran towards providing intelligence for Israel's planned military operations.

Guam Department of Corrections mugshot of suspected leaker Asif Rahman Asif W. Rahman.png
Guam Department of Corrections mugshot of suspected leaker Asif Rahman
Asif William Rahman (born 18 September 1990), [48] a CIA employee with top-secret security clearance, was indicted on 7 November for willfully retaining and transmitting national defense information. [49] Rahman graduated from Yale University in 2013, appearing on multiple issues of the Yale Daily News. [50] He listed his hometown as Cincinnati, Ohio. [51]

Strikes

Locations

Operation Days of Repentance
Airstrike targetDamage information
Parchin military complexTaleghan 2 nuclear weapons research facility destroyed [5]
Twelve "planetary mixers" in three solid-propellant facilities struck [52] [53] [54]
Khojir military complexDamage to the military complex occurred [53]
Imam Khomeini International Airport One S-300 missile system destroyed [55]
Shahroud Space Center The IRGC Shahroud Missile Facility was damaged at the missile facility [56] [57]
Abadan Oil RefineryAir defense site struck [55] [58]
Bandar Imam Khomeini Petrochemical ComplexAir defense site at the complex struck [55] [58]
Bandar Imam Khomeini PortAir defense site at the port struck [55] [58]
Tang-eh Bijar Gas FieldSeveral air defense sites struck [59] [55] [58]
Shamsabad Industrial City The Taksaz Industrial Innovators Engineering Company (TIECO) factory was damaged [60]
Ahvaz radar siteA Ghadir radar north of Ahvaz was destroyed [57] [61]
Ilam radar siteA Ghadir radar near Ilam was destroyed [57] [62]
Parand military complexDamage to the military complex occurred from several drone strikes [57]
Hazrat Amir Brigade Air Defense SiteOne S-300 missile system destroyed at the air defense site [59] [57]

Timeline

The F-15D Eagle Baz #957 at Tel Nof Airbase before the strike 2024-10-26 Israeli strikes on Iran, F-15D -957 before the attack 2.jpg
The F-15D Eagle Baz #957 at Tel Nof Airbase before the strike
An F-16I Sufa at Ramon Airbase prepares for the strike 2024-10-26 Israeli strikes on Iran, F-16I -494 before the attack.jpg
An F-16I Sufa at Ramon Airbase prepares for the strike
An F-15C Eagle Baz at Tel Nof Airbase before the strike 2024-10-26 Israeli strikes on Iran, F-15C -673 before the attack.jpg
An F-15C Eagle Baz at Tel Nof Airbase before the strike

In the early hours of 26 October 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began conducting airstrikes on military targets in Iran. The IDF stated that the strikes were conducted in response to the October 2024 Iranian strikes against Israel on 1 October and due to militant actions by proxy members of the Axis of Resistance. [63] Just prior to the attacks, Israel notified the United States' Biden administration about the impending attacks on Iran. [64] The strikes continued through the night until dawn in Iran, marking Israel's first openly acknowledged attack on the country. This was the first time since the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988) that Iran has faced such a prolonged assault from a foreign adversary. [11]

The Jerusalem Post reported that over 100 aircraft, including F-35 Lightning II Adir stealth fighters from Nevatim Airbase, traveled roughly 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) for the attack, deploying heavy munitions with extensive refueling support and the IAF rescue and search force Unit 669 on standby. Some of the aircraft breached Iranian airspace. [17] A preceding operation on radar sites in Syria prevented Iran from gaining intelligence on Israel's intentions. [18] A video released by the IDF after the attack showed F-15C/D Eagle Baz jets from Tel Nof Airbase and an F-16I Sufa jet from Ramon Airbase preparing for it (see video stills to the right). [65]

Beginning at 1:48 a.m. local time, sirens and alarms went off continuously for 30 minutes across the Ankawa neighborhood of Erbil, Iraq, with loudspeakers at Irbil airport's military base repeating the word "bunkers". [66] Iranian State Television issued reports of explosion noises throughout Tehran. Two Arab officials stated that the attack had appeared to target a weapons depot and a military office or barracks. [63] Explosions were also reported in the city of Karaj, located just west of Tehran, [64] and near Imam Khomeini International Airport, Mashhad, Kermanshah, and Zanjan. [19] [67] [68] [69] [70] [ excessive citations ] Explosions were also heard near Damascus, Syria. [71] [72] Al Jazeera posted a video showing Iran's air defense activate in the skies of Tehran. [73] Al Araby TV showed damage from Israeli strikes to a military drone factory in Shamsabad, south of Tehran. [74] Iran later confirmed that strikes had also occurred in Ilam province and Khuzestan. [75]

Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Israel had targeted an Iranian UAV factory as well as a secret base in Tehran. It was also reported that Russian made S-300 Iranian batteries as well as ballistic missile sites were attacked. [76]

According to two Iranian officials, one affiliated with the IRGC, Israel's strikes in Tehran Province targeted key defense sites, including the S-300 air defense system at Imam Khomeini International Airport, which helps protect the capital. [77]

The officials reported that multiple IRGC missile bases were hit in the province, followed by a second wave of drone strikes targeting the Parchin military complex on Tehran's outskirts with one drone reportedly reaching the base. [77] The latter site has long been cited by Israel as a site of suspected nuclear weapons-related activity, with the IAEA reportedly finding related evidence there in 2016. [78] David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear weapons inspector, noted that commercial satellite images, though low resolution, indicated that three buildings in Parchin were damaged, including two involved in mixing solid fuel for ballistic missile engines. [79]

Iranian outlets reported that two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) soldiers were killed. [80] [81] Images released by Fars News Agency showed that the soldiers belonged to Iran's Air Defense Force, suggesting that SAM systems were targeted, possibly increasing Iran's vulnerability to future attacks. [82]

According to U.S. officials, Israel targeted critical components of Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure, destroying 12 planetary mixers essential for producing solid-fuel missiles. Thus crippling Iran's capability to replenish its missile stockpile. U.S. officials added that it would take Iran at least a year to resume its missile production. [1] U.S. and Israeli officials said that most of Iran's air defense network, including nearly all of its advanced S-300 systems, were destroyed. [2] [3] Paving the way for potential future Israeli strikes which could be aimed at Iran’s nuclear program or its oil infrastructure. [83]

Reactions

Israel

At 2:30 a.m., the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced it was "conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran," citing over a year of attacks by Iran and its allies across the Middle East as the reason. According to The New York Times , this statement marked a rare Israeli acknowledgment of military operations within Iranian territory. [21] IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Israel selected these sites from a "broad target bank", and that it would be able to "select additional targets from it and strike them if required", adding that "this is a clear message—those who threaten the State of Israel will pay a heavy price." [84] By around 5 a.m., Israeli officials confirmed that the operation had concluded, with 20 targets struck. The IDF's statement at 6 a.m. confirmed the end of the strikes. [21]

A day after the airstrikes, during a memorial for the victims of the 7 October Hamas-led attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, "We have severely struck [Iran's] defense capabilities and its ability to produce missiles," adding that "the attack on Iran was precise and powerful, achieving all its objectives." [85]

An official from the IDF indicated to Axios that thanks to the attack, Israel now enjoys greater freedom of operation over Iran, in part due to Israel having hit Iranian air defences as well as Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure. [19]

Iran

State media confirmed that explosions were heard in Tehran, attributing some of the sounds to air defense systems in the area. However, state television provided no further details for several hours, only briefly mentioning the attack. [11] Reporters stationed throughout the capital presented scenes of normal life, including markets and traffic, suggesting stability after the attack. [77] The IRGC-affiliated channel Tasnim dismissed the attacks as "weak", [77] a response experts described to the BBC as typical for Iran in such situations. [84]

Iranian civilians who spoke to The Daily Telegraph expressed concern over continued escalating violence between Israel and Iran. [20] The Iranian government threatened to hand out prison sentences of up to 10 years to civilians who provide evidence on the Israeli airstrikes to media deemed "hostile" by the regime. [86] [20]

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran has "no limits" when it comes to defending its interests, territorial integrity, and its people. [87] Iran's UN mission said that Israeli warplanes conducted the attacks via US-held Iraqi airspace, accusing the United States of being complicit in the incident. [88]

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated that "The evil perpetrated by the Zionist regime two nights ago must not be exaggerated or minimised." [89] Following the attack, he opened a Hebrew X (formerly Twitter) account, posting a tweet in Hebrew stating that "The Zionist regime made a mistake and miscalculated regarding Iran. We will make it understand the power, capability, initiative, and determination of the Iranian nation." Shortly afterwards, the account was suspended. [90] [91]

In the days following the attack, reports emerged suggesting that Iran was preparing a significant retaliation. Iranian officials indicated that on October 28, Supreme Leader Khamenei directed the Supreme National Security Council to organize an attack on Israel. On October 31, Ali Fadavi, deputy commander of the IRGC, was quoted in Iranian media stating, "Iran's response to the Zionist aggression is definite," adding, "We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years. We are capable of destroying all that the Zionists possess with one operation." On the same day, Gholamhossein Mohammadi Golpayegani, head of the supreme leader's office, remarked that Iran would deliver "a fierce, tooth-breaking response" to Israel's "desperate action." [92] According to Axios, intelligence assessments suggest Iran may launch the attack from Iraq, potentially before the US elections. [93]

Axis of Resistance

International

Africa

  • Flag of Algeria.svg  Algeria: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the military attacks and expressed solidarity with the Iranians. [95]
  • Flag of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.svg  Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the attacks, describing them as violations of international legitimacy and praised Iran's defense capabilities for resisting the attack. [96]
  • Flag of Tunisia.svg  Tunisia: The government issued a statement warning about the consequences of the attack, it also stated to the international community to "urgently assume its responsibilities to put an end to this reckless approach". [97]

Asia

  • Flag of Malaysia.svg  Malaysia: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the strikes as a "clear violation" of international law and called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities". [98]
  • Flag of Pakistan.svg  Pakistan: The Foreign Ministry stated that the attacks undermine any chance of peace and stability in the region, it also stated that Israel "bears full responsibility for the current cycle of escalation and expansion of the conflict in the region". [98]

Europe

  • Flag of France.svg  France: The Foreign Ministry stated that all parties "must abstain from any escalation and action that could worsen the extremely tense context in the region." [98]
  • Flag of Germany.svg  Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on X that his message to Iran is that "massive escalating reactions must not continue. These must stop immediately. Only then can we open the possibility of a peaceful evolution in the Middle East." [98]
  • Flag of Russia.svg  Russia: Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that she urges all parties to "exercise restraint, stop the violence and prevent events from developing into a catastrophic scenario." [98]
  • Flag of the United Kingdom.svg  United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated in a press conference: "I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression and I am equally clear that we need to avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to show restraint. Iran should not respond. We will continue to work with allies to de-escalate the situation across the region." [99]

Middle East

  • Flag of Bahrain.svg  Bahrain: The Foreign Ministry has condemned the attack, urging an immediate ceasefire to protect civilians and reduce regional tensions. [97]
  • Flag of Egypt.svg  Egypt: The Foreign Ministry stated that it condemns all actions that threaten the security and stability of the Middle East. [98]
  • Flag of Iraq.svg  Iraq: The Prime Minister's office stated that Israel continues its aggressive policies and expansion of conflict in the region, employing blatant acts of aggression without deterrence. [100] The presidency condemned the Israeli attack, stating it was a flagrant violation of international law and state sovereignty, while reaffirming Iraq's steadfast position against any form of escalation. [101] Government spokesman Basim Alawadi stated that "the occupying Zionist entity continues its aggressive policies and widening the conflict in the region through blatant attacks that it carries out with impunity". [98] Egyptair says it had suspended flights to Baghdad and Erbil. [102]
  • Flag of Jordan.svg  Jordan: The Foreign Ministry stated that the international community "must shoulder its responsibilities" and take immediate measures to stop the Israeli "aggression" on Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon as a first step towards reducing the escalation". [98]
  • Flag of Kuwait.svg  Kuwait: The Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, stating that the attack reflected the "policy of chaos pursued by the Israeli Occupation Forces through violating the sovereignty of states". [98]
  • Flag of Oman.svg  Oman: The Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes as a "blatant violation" of Iranian sovereignty. [98]
  • Flag of Qatar.svg  Qatar: The Foreign Ministry called the attacks a "violation of Iran's sovereignty and a clear breach of international law" and further stated that Qatar does not want to see more violence in the region. [98]
  • Flag of Saudi Arabia.svg  Saudi Arabia: The Foreign Ministry called the attack a "violation" of Iran's sovereignty and called on both parties to restraint. [98]
  • Flag of Syria.svg  Syria: The Foreign Ministry expressed its solidarity with Iran, stating that Iran has the "legitimate right to defend itself and protect its territory and the lives of its citizens". [98]
  • Flag of Turkey.svg  Turkey: The Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, stating that Israel will bring the Middle East to a "wider war". [98]
  • Flag of the United Arab Emirates.svg  United Arab Emirates: The Foreign Ministry condemned the targeting of Iran and expressed deep concern over the continued escalation and its impact on regional security and stability. [100]

North America

  • Flag of the United States.svg  United States: An unnamed senior official from the Biden administration stated that the airstrikes seem to be a measured and deliberate response to earlier attacks from Iran, posing a minimal risk to civilian safety. [103] National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said that the Israeli strike "avoided populated areas ... contrary to Iran's attack against Israel that targeted Israel's most populous city." He added that the US urges Iran to stop attacking Israel, "so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation." [47]

Supranational

Analysis

Defense expert Malcolm Davis told CNN that although Israel's attack was "limited" and "precise," it was "certainly embarrassing" for Iran. He suggested that Iran might hesitate to retaliate, as doing so could provoke Israel to target its nuclear and oil facilities, or even members of Tehran's leadership. Therefore, he argued, Iran may find it wiser to "take this hit and back down." [104]

Iranian-born writer Arash Azizi reported that many Iranians felt "mostly relieved" as Israel's strikes avoided civilian infrastructure like oil refineries, power, and water facilities, as well as political and military officials. [104]

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), observed that Iran appears to be minimizing the impact of the Israeli strike. Iranian state media has refrained from reporting any damage, a move that Taleblu suggests is aimed at controlling public perception and helping the regime maintain its image internally. [104] Jonathan Conricus, also a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated that while a comprehensive assessment will depend on satellite analysis in the coming days, it is possible that "Tehran, with all of its regime targets and sensitive infrastructure, might now be totally exposed to future Israeli strikes." [82]

Con Coughlin wrote in The Telegraph that the Israeli strikes on Iran "could ultimately prove to be the final nail in the Islamic Republic's coffin." He pointed out that the ease with which Iran's air defenses were breached indicates that, despite the regime's substantial investments in military capabilities, it "is little more than a paper tiger." He also suggested that the regime is likely concerned about how ordinary Iranians will react, given severe economic issues such as 45% inflation and 25% youth unemployment. This situation raises questions among the Iranian public about "the wisdom of the regime investing so heavily in constructing its expansive terrorist infrastructure when ordinary civilians are struggling to make ends meet." [105]

According to The Economist , the Israeli strikes "signalled the failure of Iran's national-security doctrine" that had been pursued for decades by current Supreme Leader Khamenei. He now faces a critical juncture regarding alternative strategies while contending with domestic dissatisfaction with his ideology-driven foreign policy, as evidenced by the popular protest slogan "not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran." The article states that Khamenei's successor "will decide whether to continue a war of choice that has impoverished Iran for decades and now brought it under attack by an enemy state for the first time since the 1980s." [106]

Steven Erlanger argued in an article for The New York Times that Iran faces a difficult choice: while retaliating against Israel risks escalation "when its economy is struggling, its allies are faltering, its military vulnerability is clear and its leadership succession is in play," holding back could suggest weakness to its allies—"badly weakened by the Israeli military's tough response since Oct. 7"—as well as to hardliners at home. [107]

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References

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