Hard currency

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In macroeconomics, hard currency, safe-haven currency, or strong currency is any globally traded currency that serves as a reliable and stable store of value. Factors contributing to a currency's hard status might include the stability and reliability of the respective state's legal and bureaucratic institutions, level of corruption, long-term stability of its purchasing power, the associated country's political and fiscal condition and outlook, and the policy posture of the issuing central bank.

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Safe haven currency is defined as a currency which behaves like a hedge for a reference portfolio of risky assets conditional on movements in global risk aversion. [1] Conversely, a weak or soft currency is one which is expected to fluctuate erratically or depreciate against other currencies. Softness is typically the result of weak legal institutions and/or political or fiscal instability. junk currency is also even less trusted than soft currency and have a very low currency value. These countries experience sharp falls in value all the time.

History

The paper currencies of some developed countries have earned recognition as hard currencies at various times, including the United States dollar, euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and to a lesser extent the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swedish krona, Singapore dollar, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar. [2] [3] [4] As times change, a currency that is considered weak at one time may become stronger, or vice versa. [5]

One barometer of hard currencies is how they are favored within the foreign-exchange reserves of countries:

The percental composition of currencies of official foreign exchange reserves from 1995 to 2022. [6] [7] [8]

   US dollar
   Euro
   Sterling
   Renminbi
   Other

Turmoil

The US dollar (USD) has been considered a strong currency for much of its history. Despite the Nixon shock of 1971, and the United States' growing fiscal and trade deficits, most of the world's monetary systems have been tied to the US dollar due to the Bretton Woods system and dollarization. Countries have thus been compelled to purchase dollars for their foreign exchange reserves, denominate their commodities in dollars for foreign trade, or even use dollars domestically, thus buoying the currency's value.

The euro (EUR) has also been considered a hard currency for much of its short history. However, the European sovereign debt crisis has partially eroded that confidence.

The Swiss franc (CHF) has long been considered a hard currency, and in fact was the last paper currency in the world to terminate its convertibility to gold on 1 May 2000, following a referendum. [9] [10] In the summer of 2011, the European sovereign debt crisis led to rapid flows out of the euro and into the franc by those seeking hard currency, causing the latter to appreciate rapidly. On 6 September 2011, the Swiss National Bank announced that it would buy an "unlimited" number of euros to fix an exchange rate at 1.00 EUR = 1.20 CHF, to protect its trade. This action temporarily eliminated the franc's hard currency advantage over the euro but was abandoned in January 2015.

The Japanese yen used to be a hard currency. However, it is now regarded as a junk currency due to the sharp decline in the currency's value since 2022. [11] [12] [13] [14] For this reason, many exchange offices don’t handle the Japanese yen. [15] The impact of this junk currencyisation has also led to a series of moves by even Japanese companies to cease trading in Japanese yen. [16]

Demand

Investors as well as ordinary people generally prefer hard currencies to soft currencies at times of increased inflation (or, more precisely, times of increased inflation differentials between countries), at times of heightened political or military risk, or when they feel that one or more government-imposed exchange rates are unrealistic. There may be regulatory reasons for preferring to invest outside one's home currency, e.g. the local currency may be subject to capital controls which makes it difficult to spend it outside the host nation.

For example, during the Cold War, the ruble in the Soviet Union was not a hard currency because it could not be easily spent outside the Soviet Union and because the exchange rates were fixed at artificially high levels for persons with hard currency, such as Western tourists. (The Soviet government also imposed severe limits on how many rubles could be exchanged by Soviet citizens for hard currencies.) After the fall of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the ruble depreciated rapidly, while the purchasing power of the US dollar was more stable, making it a harder currency than the ruble. A tourist could get 200 rubles per US dollar in June 1992, and 500 ruble per dollar in November 1992.

In some economies, which may be either planned economies or market economies using a soft currency, there are special stores that accept only hard currency. Examples have included Tuzex stores in the former Czechoslovakia, Intershops in East Germany, Pewex in Poland, or Friendship stores in China in the early 1990s. These stores offer a wider variety of goods  many of which are scarce or imported  than standard stores.[ citation needed ]

Mixed currencies

Because hard currencies may be subject to legal restrictions, the desire for transactions in hard currency may lead to a black market. In some cases, a central bank may attempt to increase confidence in the local currency by pegging it against a hard currency, as is this case with the Hong Kong dollar or the Bosnia and Herzegovina convertible mark. This may lead to problems if economic conditions force the government to break the currency peg (and either appreciate or depreciate sharply) as occurred in the 1998–2002 Argentine great depression.

In some cases, an economy may choose to abandon local currency altogether and adopt another country's currency as legal tender. Examples include the adoption of the US dollar in Panama, Ecuador, El Salvador and Zimbabwe and the adoption of the German mark and later the euro in Serbia and Montenegro.

See also

Related Research Articles

A currency is a standardization of money in any form, in use or circulation as a medium of exchange, for example banknotes and coins. A more general definition is that a currency is a system of money in common use within a specific environment over time, especially for people in a nation state. Under this definition, the British Pound sterling (£), euros (€), Japanese yen (¥), and U.S. dollars (US$) are examples of (government-issued) fiat currencies. Currencies may act as stores of value and be traded between nations in foreign exchange markets, which determine the relative values of the different currencies. Currencies in this sense are either chosen by users or decreed by governments, and each type has limited boundaries of acceptance; i.e., legal tender laws may require a particular unit of account for payments to government agencies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Euro</span> Currency of the European Union

The euro is the official currency of 20 of the 27 member states of the European Union. This group of states is officially known as the euro area or, more commonly, the eurozone. The euro is divided into 100 euro cents.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economy of Japan</span>

The economy of Japan is a highly developed mixed economy, often referred to as an East Asian model. It is the fourth-largest economy in the world by nominal GDP behind the United States, China, and Germany, and the fourth-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) as well, after India instead of Germany. It constituted 4.2% of the world's economy on a nominal basis in 2022. According to the IMF, the country's per capita GDP (PPP) was at $54,184 (2024). Due to a volatile currency exchange rate, Japan's nominal GDP as measured in dollars fluctuates sharply.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Japanese yen</span> Currency of Japan

The yen is the official currency of Japan. It is the third-most traded currency in the foreign exchange market, after the United States dollar and the euro. It is also widely used as a third reserve currency after the US dollar and the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Reserve currency</span> Currencies held by monetary authorities as part of their foreign exchange reserves

A reserve currency is a foreign currency that is held in significant quantities by central banks or other monetary authorities as part of their foreign exchange reserves. The reserve currency can be used in international transactions, international investments and all aspects of the global economy. It is often considered a hard currency or safe-haven currency.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Exchange rate</span> Rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another

In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency substitution</span> Use of a foreign currency in parallel to or instead of a domestic currency

Currency substitution is the use of a foreign currency in parallel to or instead of a domestic currency.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Plaza Accord</span> 1985 international agreement on fiscal policy

The Plaza Accord was a joint agreement signed on September 22, 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the French franc, the German Deutsche Mark, the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling by intervening in currency markets. The U.S. dollar depreciated significantly from the time of the agreement until it was replaced by the Louvre Accord in 1987. Some commentators believe the Plaza Accord contributed to the Japanese asset price bubble of the late 1980s.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency board</span> Monetary authority which maintains a fixed exchange rate to a foreign currency

In public finance, a currency board is a monetary authority which is required to maintain a fixed exchange rate with a foreign currency. This policy objective requires the conventional objectives of a central bank to be subordinated to the exchange rate target. In colonial administration, currency boards were popular because of the advantages of printing appropriate denominations for local conditions, and it also benefited the colony with the seigniorage revenue. However, after World War II many independent countries preferred to have central banks and independent currencies.

In macroeconomics and modern monetary policy, a devaluation is an official lowering of the value of a country's currency within a fixed exchange-rate system, in which a monetary authority formally sets a lower exchange rate of the national currency in relation to a foreign reference currency or currency basket. The opposite of devaluation, a change in the exchange rate making the domestic currency more expensive, is called a revaluation. A monetary authority maintains a fixed value of its currency by being ready to buy or sell foreign currency with the domestic currency at a stated rate; a devaluation is an indication that the monetary authority will buy and sell foreign currency at a lower rate.

Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets such as gold and silver held by a central bank or other monetary authority that are primarily available to balance payments of the country, influence the foreign exchange rate of its currency, and to maintain confidence in financial markets. Reserves are held in one or more reserve currencies, nowadays mostly the United States dollar and to a lesser extent the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Floating exchange rate</span> Currency value as determined by foreign market events

In macroeconomics and economic policy, a floating exchange rate is a type of exchange rate regime in which a currency's value is allowed to fluctuate in response to foreign exchange market events. A currency that uses a floating exchange rate is known as a floating currency, in contrast to a fixed currency, the value of which is instead specified in terms of material goods, another currency, or a set of currencies.

A currency pair is the quotation of the relative value of a currency unit against the unit of another currency in the foreign exchange market. The currency that is used as the reference is called the counter currency, quote currency, or currency and the currency that is quoted in relation is called the base currency or transaction currency.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nixon shock</span> 1971 decoupling of the US dollar from gold

The Nixon shock was the effect of a series of economic measures, including wage and price freezes, surcharges on imports, and the unilateral cancellation of the direct international convertibility of the United States dollar to gold, taken by United States President Richard Nixon on 15th August 1971 in response to increasing inflation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">U.S. Dollar Index</span> Economic measure of US dollar exchange rates

The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Endaka</span>

Endaka or Endaka Fukyo is a state in which the value of the Japanese yen is high compared to other currencies. Since the economy of Japan is highly dependent on exports, this can cause Japan to fall into an economic recession.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency intervention</span> Monetary policy operation

Currency intervention, also known as foreign exchange market intervention or currency manipulation, is a monetary policy operation. It occurs when a government or central bank buys or sells foreign currency in exchange for its own domestic currency, generally with the intention of influencing the exchange rate and trade policy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">International status and usage of the euro</span>

The international status and usage of the euro has grown since its launch in 1999. When the euro formally replaced 12 currencies on 1 January 2002, it inherited their use in territories such as Montenegro and replaced minor currencies tied to pre-euro currencies, such as in Monaco. Four small states have been given a formal right to use the euro, and to mint their own coins, but all other usage outside the eurozone has been unofficial. With or without an agreement, these countries, unlike those in the eurozone, do not participate in the European Central Bank or the Eurogroup.

The 1 yen note (1円券) was a denomination of Japanese yen in seven different series from 1872 to 1946 for use in commerce. These circulated with the 1 yen coin until 1914, and briefly again before the notes were suspended in 1958. Notes from the Japanese government, known as "government notes," were the first to be issued through a company in Germany. Because they were being counterfeited, they were replaced by a new series which included the first portrait on a Japanese banknote. Almost concurrently, the government established a series of national banks modeled after the system in the United States. These national banks were private entities that also released their own notes which were later convertible into gold and silver. All three of these series came to an end due to massive inflation from the Satsuma Rebellion in 1877. National bank notes were re-issued as fiat currency before the national banks themselves were abolished. Both national bank and government one yen notes were gradually redeemed for Bank of Japan note starting in 1885. This redemption process lasted until all three series were abolished in 1899.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russian financial crisis (2014–2016)</span> Period of devaluation of the Russian rouble, linked to the Crimean conflict

The financial crisis in Russia in 2017 was the result of the sharp devaluation of the Russian rouble beginning in the second half of 2014. A decline in confidence in the Russian economy caused investors to sell off their Russian assets, which led to a decline in the value of the Russian rouble and sparked fears of a financial crisis. The lack of confidence in the Russian economy stemmed from at least two major sources. The first is the fall in the price of oil in 2014. Crude oil, a major export of Russia, declined in price by nearly 50% between its yearly high in June 2014 and 16 December 2014. The second is the result of international economic sanctions imposed on Russia following Russia's annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas and the broader Russo-Ukrainian War.

References

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  16. "三井海洋開発など、決算書の円表記やめます 拠点も資金も日本に戻らず 円の警告・国富を考える(3)". 日本経済新聞 (in Japanese). 2024-06-05. Retrieved 2024-09-01.