"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of applied statistics. [2] It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The phrase was popularized in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli. [1] However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often attributed to Twain himself. [3]
Mark Twain popularized the saying in Chapters from My Autobiography , published in the North American Review in 1907. "Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'" [4] [1] [2]
Alternative attributions include, among many others (for example Walter Bagehot and Arthur James Balfour), the radical English journalist and politician Henry Du Pré Labouchère (1831–1912), Jervoise Athelstane Baines, [5] and British politician and scholar Leonard H. Courtney, who used the phrase in 1895 and two years later became president of the Royal Statistical Society. Courtney is quoted by Baines (1896) as attributing the phrase to a "wise statesman", [6] but he may have been referring to a future statesman rather than a past one. [7] The phrase has also been attributed to Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington. [8] [9]
The phrase is quoted frequently in 1895, but here is a 1894 example: "His less enthusiastic neighbor thinks of the proverbial kinds of falsehoods, “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” and replies: “Reports of large numbers of cases subjected to operation seldom fail to beget a suspicion of unjustifiable risk.”" [10] [11]
A Dictionary of English Folklore claims that the earliest instance resembling the phrase found in print is a letter written in the British newspaper National Observer on June 8, 1891, published June 13, 1891, p. 93(–94): NATIONAL PENSIONS [To the Editor of The National Observer] London, 8 June 1891 "Sir, —It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statistics that the advocate of national pensions relies ..." Later, in October 1891, as a query in Notes and Queries , the pseudonymous questioner, signing as "St Swithin", asked for the originator of the phrase, indicating common usage even at that date. [7] The pseudonym has been attributed to Eliza Gutch. [12]
The American Dialect Society list archives include numerous posts by Stephen Goranson that cite research into uses soon after the above. They include:
Colin White traces the origins to François Magendie (1783–1855). According to White, while arguing against using blood-letting to treat fever and confronted with statistical numbers he believed to be manufactured, this French physiologist stated: "Thus the alteration of the truth which is already manifesting itself in the progressive form of lying and perjury, offers us, in the superlative, the statistics." [18] In White's opinion, the world had a need of this phrase, many people "would have been proud" to coin it, and the origins are now obscured, as the phrase passed "from wit to wit". [2] White is referring to the work of Paul Delaunay [19] , however, Delaunay's text, while using the phrase, does not explicitly attribute it to Magendie. John Bibby [20] and David R. Bellhouse [21] also mention Magendie's authorship.
The phrase has been used in the title of a number of popular expositions, including:
The essay The Median Isn't the Message by Stephen Jay Gould begins by repeating this quote. Gould explains how the statistic that peritoneal mesothelioma, the form of cancer with which he was diagnosed in 1982, has a "median survival time of eight months" is misleading. [22]
"Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" is the title of episode 21 in the first season of NBC drama The West Wing. [23]
Thomas Henry Huxley was an English biologist and anthropologist who specialized in comparative anatomy. He has become known as "Darwin's Bulldog" for his advocacy of Charles Darwin's theory of evolution.
The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type any given text, including the complete works of William Shakespeare. In fact, the monkey would almost surely type every possible finite text an infinite number of times. The theorem can be generalized to state that any sequence of events that has a non-zero probability of happening will almost certainly occur an infinite number of times, given an infinite amount of time or a universe that is infinite in size.
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Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher was a British polymath who was active as a mathematician, statistician, biologist, geneticist, and academic. For his work in statistics, he has been described as "a genius who almost single-handedly created the foundations for modern statistical science" and "the single most important figure in 20th century statistics". In genetics, Fisher was the one to most comprehensively combine the ideas of Gregor Mendel and Charles Darwin, as his work used mathematics to combine Mendelian genetics and natural selection; this contributed to the revival of Darwinism in the early 20th-century revision of the theory of evolution known as the modern synthesis. For his contributions to biology, Richard Dawkins declared Fisher to be the greatest of Darwin's successors. He is also considered one of the founding fathers of Neo-Darwinism. According to statistician Jeffrey T. Leek, Fisher is the most influential scientist of all time based off the number of citations of his contributions.
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A lie is an assertion that is believed to be false, typically used with the purpose of deceiving or misleading someone. The practice of communicating lies is called lying. A person who communicates a lie may be termed a liar. Lies can be interpreted as deliberately false statements or misleading statements, though not all statements that are literally false are considered lies – metaphors, hyperboles, and other figurative rhetoric are not intended to mislead, while lies are explicitly meant for literal interpretation by their audience. Lies may also serve a variety of instrumental, interpersonal, or psychological functions for the individuals who use them.
Robert Arthur Talbot Gascoyne-Cecil, 3rd Marquess of Salisbury, known as Lord Salisbury, was a British statesman and Conservative politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom three times for a total of over thirteen years. He was also Foreign Secretary before and during most of his tenure. He avoided alignments or alliances, maintaining the policy of "splendid isolation".
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François Magendie was a French physiologist, considered a pioneer of experimental physiology. He is known for describing the foramen of Magendie. There is also a Magendie sign, a downward and inward rotation of the eye due to a lesion in the cerebellum. Magendie was a faculty at the College of France, holding the Chair of Medicine from 1830 to 1855.
Statistics, when used in a misleading fashion, can trick the casual observer into believing something other than what the data shows. That is, a misuse of statistics occurs when a statistical argument asserts a falsehood. In some cases, the misuse may be accidental. In others, it is purposeful and for the gain of the perpetrator. When the statistical reason involved is false or misapplied, this constitutes a statistical fallacy.
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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did not exist. The expression was used until around 1697 when Dutch mariners saw them in Australia. After this, the term was reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.
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"Alternative facts" was a phrase used by U.S. Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway during a Meet the Press interview on January 22, 2017, in which she defended White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer's false statement about the attendance numbers of Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States. When pressed during the interview with Chuck Todd to explain why Spicer would "utter a provable falsehood", Conway stated that Spicer was giving "alternative facts". Todd responded, "Look, alternative facts are not facts. They're falsehoods."
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. attributed to Disraeli in Mark Twain Autobiography (1924) vol. 1;
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