Mahalapye West

Mahalapye West
Single-member constituency for the National Assembly
District	Central
Population	37,066
Major settlements	Mahalapye
Area	551 km2
Current constituency
Created	2004
Party	UDC
Created from	Mahalapye
MP	David Tshere
Margin of victory	7,957 (58.4 pp)

Mahalapye West is a constituency in the Central District represented in the National Assembly of Botswana by David Tshere of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) since 2019.

Constituency profile

The constituency was created in 2004 as part of an increase in the number of Mahalapye constituencies from one to two. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) won the seat in its inaugural election in 2004 and held on to it for the next two elections. In 2019, echoing a broader trend within the district, a significant political realignment occurred as Ian Khama, paramount chief of the Ngwato tribe fell out with the incumbent president, Mokgweetsi Masisi and leader of the BDP. This political discord impacted the constituency's voting patterns. ^{[1] [2]} The Umbrella for Democratic Change flipped the seat, benefitting from the BPF siphoning away votes as well as the UDC gaining votes from the BDP.

In the context of the 2024 general election, which resulted in the BDP losing national power for the first time since independence in 1966, the party's vote share in the constituency declined to 14.8%, representing its second-lowest performance in any constituency in history, marginally ahead of its result in Francistown South. The UDC, by contrast, recorded a substantial increase of 21 percentage points in its vote share compared to the 2019 election. Thus, David Tshere was re-elected with 73% of the vote and a margin of 58 percentage points — the highest vote share and margin of victory attained by a non-BDP candidate in Botswana's electoral history, surpassing the previous record of 71% set by Bathoen II 55 years prior. Thus the seat is considered a safe seat for the UDC.

The primarily urban constituency encompasses the following locations: ^[3]

1. Mahalapye
2. Tewane

Members of Parliament

Key:  BDP   UDC

Election	Winner
2004 election		Mompati Merafhe
2009 election
2014 election		Joseph Molefe
2019 election		David Tshere
2024 election

Election results

2024 election

General election 2024: Mahalapye West ^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	UDC	David Tshere	9,969	73.20	+21.36
	BDP	Mompati Ntapu	2,012	14.77	−19.05
	BCP	Moncho Moncho	818	6.00	N/A
	BPF	Agobakwe Magapa	716	5.26	−6.89
	BRP	Reginald Kadiwa	103	0.76	N/A
Margin of victory			7,957	58.43	+40.41
Total valid votes			13,618	97.64	−0.09
Rejected ballots			329	2.36	+0.09
Turnout			13,947	84.53	−0.45
Registered electors			16,500
	UDC hold		Swing	+20.21

2019 election

General election 2019: Mahalapye West ^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	UDC	David Tshere	6,016	51.84	+9.58
	BDP	Bolele Bolele	3,925	33.82	−22.81
	BPF	Agobakwe Magapa	1,410	12.15	N/A
	AP	Tsholofelo Sebele	253	2.18	N/A
Margin of victory			2,091	18.02	N/A
Total valid votes			11,604	97.73	−0.86
Rejected ballots			270	1.32	+0.86
Turnout			11,874	84.98	+1.48
Registered electors			13,972
	UDC gain from BDP		Swing	+16.20

Note: UDC vote share is compared to the total vote share of the UDC and BCP in 2014.

2014 election

General election 2014: Mahalapye West ^[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Joseph Molefe	6,542	56.63	−15.24
	BCP	David Tshere	3,436	29.74	+11.10
	UDC	Mmika Solomon	1,446	12.52	+3.03
	Independent	Bonang Mmopi	128	1.11	N/A
Margin of victory			3,106	26.89	−26.34
Total valid votes			11,552	98.59	+0.50
Rejected ballots			165	1.41	−0.50
Turnout			11,717	83.50	+9.93
Registered electors			14,033
	BDP hold		Swing	−13.17

Note: UDC vote share is compared to the vote share of the BNF in 2009.

2009 election

General election 2009: Mahalapye West ^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Mompati Merafhe	6,686	71.87	+4.58
	BCP	Moncho Moncho	1,734	18.64	+6.56
	BNF	Morake Phiri	883	9.49	−11.13
Margin of victory			4,952	53.23	+6.56
Total valid votes			9,303	98.09	−0.38
Rejected ballots			181	1.91	+0.38
Turnout			9,484	73.57	−3.48
Registered electors			12,892
	BDP hold		Swing	+5.57

2004 election

General election 2004: Mahalapye West ^[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	BDP	Mompati Merafhe	5,429	67.29
	BNF	Abigail Mogalakwe	1,664	20.62
	BCP	Thomas Ookeditse	975	12.08
Margin of victory			3,765	46.67
Total valid votes			8,068	98.47
Rejected ballots			125	1.53
Turnout			8,193	77.05
Registered electors			10,633
	BDP win (new seat)

References

1. Basimanebotlhe, Tsaone (2022-10-10). "Serowe constituencies vulnerable as BPF rumpus continues". Mmegi Online . Retrieved 2024-04-12.
2. Seabo, Batlang; Nyenhuis, Robert (2021-11-23). "Botswana's 2019 General Elections: A Referendum on General Ian Khama". African Studies Review. 64 (4): 854–883. doi:10.1017/asr.2021.69. ISSN   0002-0206. S2CID   244539238.
3. 2022 DELIMITATION COMMISSION REPORT (PDF). 2022.
4. "Tshere retains Mahalapye West". DailyNews. 1 November 2024.
5. Independent Electoral Commission - Botswana National Assembly, 2019
6. Independent Electoral Commission - Botswana National Assembly, 2014
7. Report To The Minister Of Presidential Affairs And Public Administration On The 2009 General Elections (PDF). Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).
8. BOTSWANA GENERAL ELECTIONS 30th OCTOBER 2004 POLLING RESULTS (PDF). Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).