Martin Ford (author)

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Martin Ford
Martin Ford Speaking July 2016.jpg
Ford speaking at the Tata Communications CEO Summit in Ascot, UK in July 2016
NationalityAmerican
Alma mater University of Michigan (BSE)
UCLA Anderson School of Management (MBA)
Known forAuthor of New York Times Bestseller, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
Awards2015 Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award
Scientific career
Fields Futurist and author focusing on artificial intelligence, robotics and the impact on employment, society and the economy
Website mfordfuture.com

Martin Ford is an American futurist and author focusing on artificial intelligence and robotics, and the impact of these technologies on the job market, economy and society.

Contents

He has written four books on technology. His 2015 book, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future , was a New York Times bestseller and won the £30,000 Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award.

In Ford's most recent book, Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything (2021), he argues that AI is a systemic, general-purpose technology that will ultimately compare to electricity in terms of its impact on the economy and society. Ford argues that AI will be one of humanity's most consequential technologies, transforming virtually every industry and aspect of civilization, and that it will be critical driver of increased innovation and creativity that will lead to future advances across a broad range of fields in science, engineering and medicine.

Ford's previous book, Architects of Intelligence: The Truth about AI from the People Building It (2018) consists of conversations with the most prominent research scientists and entrepreneurs working in the field of artificial intelligence, including Demis Hassabis, Geoffrey Hinton, Ray Kurzweil, Yann LeCun, Yoshua Bengio, Nick Bostrom, Fei-Fei Li, Rodney Brooks, Andrew Ng, Stuart J. Russell and many others. The conversations recorded in the book delve into the future of artificial intelligence, the path to human-level AI (or artificial general intelligence), and the risks associated with progress in AI.

His first book, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future (2009) also dealt with the effects of automation resulting from advances in artificial intelligence, and the potential for structural unemployment and dramatically increasing inequality.

Ford earned a BSE in computer engineering, magna cum laude, from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and a graduate business degree from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

Author and futurist

In 2009, Ford published The Lights in the Tunnel, making a strong argument that advances in robotics and artificial intelligence would eventually make a large fraction of the human workforce obsolete. [1]

Ford predicted in his 2009 book that "artificial intelligence will be the next Killer App" [2] and would become a central focus of Silicon Valley. By 2016, major firms like Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Apple were in an intense talent war [3] for AI experts, and Google's CEO had proclaimed that artificial intelligence represented an "inflection point" and that Google would be an "AI-first" company. [4]

In his second book, Rise of the Robots (2015), he argues that the growth of automation threatens many highly educated people, like lawyers, radiologists, and software designers. [5] Rise of the Robots is a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 19 languages.

In addition to his books, Ford has written for numerous publications including The New York Times , the Financial Times , Harvard Business Review , and The Washington Post . He speaks frequently to industry, academic and government audiences, and has presented his ideas at major events attended by global thought leaders, such as the TED Conference, the Milken Institute's Global Conference, the Festival of Dangerous Ideas, held annually at the Sydney Opera House, the St. Gallen Symposium in Switzerland, and the Asian Leadership Conference in Seoul. Ford has spoken to or consulted with various governments, and in July 2016 he participated in a conversation with the White House Chief of Staff about the potential impact of robotics and artificial intelligence on the U.S. economy and workforce that was live-streamed from the White House. [6] [7]

Ford's first two books both focus on the fact that widespread automation could potentially undermine economic growth or lead to a deflationary spiral because jobs are the primary mechanism for distributing purchasing power to consumers. [8] He has warned that as income becomes ever more concentrated into the hands of a tiny elite, the bulk of consumers will eventually lack the income and confidence to continue supplying demand to the mass market industries that form the backbone of the modern economy. [9] To deal with the rise of unemployment and to ensure that consumers have sufficient purchasing power to continue driving economic prosperity, he is in favor of a basic income guarantee. [10]

Ford strongly supports both capitalism and continued technological progress but believes it will be necessary to adapt our economic system to the new reality created by advances in artificial intelligence, and that some form of basic income guarantee is the best way to do this. [11] In Rise of the Robots he cites the Peltzman effect (or risk compensation) as evidence that the safety net created by a guaranteed income might well result in increased economic risk-taking and a more dynamic and entrepreneurial economy. (Peltzman's thesis that risk-improvement measures may be offset by higher-risk behavior is controversial and has been disputed).

He has also argued for incorporating explicit incentives — especially for pursuing education — into a basic income scheme, suggesting for example that those who graduate from high school (or complete an equivalency exam) ought to receive a somewhat higher guaranteed income than those who drop out. Without this, many marginal or "at risk" students would be presented with a perverse incentive to simply drop out and collect the basic income.

Ford has appeared in a number of documentary films and television features, including The Future of Work and Death, [12] (2016), "Notes on the Way Forward" [13] (2016), CBS News feature "Automation Nation" [14] (2017), "How to Build a Human" [15] (2017) and the HBO documentary The Truth About Killer Robots [16] (2018).

Awards and honors

Books

Architects of Intelligence

In Architects of Intelligence: The Truth About AI from the People Building It (Packt Publishing, 2018, ISBN   9781789131512), Ford interviewed 23 prominent figures in artificial intelligence, including DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, Google's Jeff Dean, and Stanford's Fei-Fei Li. The Verge stated that the book offered a "rare snapshot" of elite opinion in artificial intelligence. Ford stated that his interviewees "don't agree on how fast (AI) is moving, what the next breakthroughs will be, how fast we'll get to (artificial general intelligence), or what the most important risks are." [18] A Vox article on Architects and on John Brockman's Possible Minds states "One gets the sense these are the kinds of books that could perhaps have been written in 1980 about the internet... It is easy for the people involved to see that there’s something enormous here, but surprisingly difficult for them to anticipate which of its potential promises will bear fruit, or when, or whether that will be for the good." [19] The book is mainly composed of transcripts of Ford's interviews. [20]

Selected publications

Related Research Articles

Artificial intelligence (AI), in its broadest sense, is intelligence exhibited by machines, particularly computer systems, as opposed to the natural intelligence of living beings. It is a field of research in computer science that develops and studies methods and software which enable machines to perceive their environment and uses learning and intelligence to take actions that maximize their chances of achieving defined goals. Such machines may be called AIs.

The technological singularity—or simply the singularity—is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable consequences for human civilization. According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, I. J. Good's intelligence explosion model, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an "explosion" in intelligence and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that qualitatively far surpasses all human intelligence.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Automation</span> Use of various control systems for operating equipment

Automation describes a wide range of technologies that reduce human intervention in processes, mainly by predetermining decision criteria, subprocess relationships, and related actions, as well as embodying those predeterminations in machines. Automation has been achieved by various means including mechanical, hydraulic, pneumatic, electrical, electronic devices, and computers, usually in combination. Complicated systems, such as modern factories, airplanes, and ships typically use combinations of all of these techniques. The benefit of automation includes labor savings, reducing waste, savings in electricity costs, savings in material costs, and improvements to quality, accuracy, and precision.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">AI takeover</span> Hypothetical artificial intelligence scenario

An AI takeover is a scenario in which artificial intelligence (AI) becomes the dominant form of intelligence on Earth, as computer programs or robots effectively take control of the planet away from the human species. Possible scenarios include replacement of the entire human workforce due to automation, takeover by a superintelligent AI, and the popular notion of a robot uprising. Stories of AI takeovers are popular throughout science fiction. Some public figures, such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, have advocated research into precautionary measures to ensure future superintelligent machines remain under human control.

Manna is a 2003 science fiction novel by Marshall Brain that explores several issues in modern information technology, automation and economics, as well as user interfaces and transhumanism.

Emerging technologies are technologies whose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized. These technologies are generally new but also include older technologies finding new applications. Emerging technologies are often perceived as capable of changing the status quo.

"The Triple Revolution" was an open memorandum sent to U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson and other government figures on March 22, 1964. It concerned three megatrends of the time: increasing use of automation, the nuclear arms race, and advancements in human rights. Drafted under the auspices of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, it was signed by an array of noted social activists, professors, and technologists who identified themselves as the Ad Hoc Committee on the Triple Revolution. The chief initiator of the proposal was W. H. "Ping" Ferry, at that time a vice-president of CSDI, basing it in large part on the ideas of the futurist Robert Theobald.

<i>The End of Work</i> Book by Jeremy Rifkin

The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era is a non-fiction book by American economist Jeremy Rifkin, published in 1995 by Putnam Publishing Group.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Technological unemployment</span> Unemployment caused by technological change

Technological unemployment is the loss of jobs caused by technological change. It is a key type of structural unemployment. Technological change typically includes the introduction of labour-saving "mechanical-muscle" machines or more efficient "mechanical-mind" processes (automation), and humans' role in these processes are minimized. Just as horses were gradually made obsolete as transport by the automobile and as labourer by the tractor, humans' jobs have also been affected throughout modern history. Historical examples include artisan weavers reduced to poverty after the introduction of mechanized looms. During World War II, Alan Turing's bombe machine compressed and decoded thousands of man-years worth of encrypted data in a matter of hours. A contemporary example of technological unemployment is the displacement of retail cashiers by self-service tills and cashierless stores.

<i>Race Against the Machine</i> 2011 non-fiction book by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

Race Against the Machine is a non-fiction book from 2011 by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee about the interaction of digital technology, employment and organization. The full title of the book is: Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy.

Existential risk from artificial general intelligence is the idea that substantial progress in artificial general intelligence (AGI) could result in human extinction or an irreversible global catastrophe.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carl Benedikt Frey</span> Swedish-German economist and economic historian

Carl Benedikt Frey is a Swedish-German economist and economic historian. He is the Dieter Schwarz Associate Professor of AI & Work at the Oxford Internet Institute and a Fellow of Mansfield College, University of Oxford. He is also Director of the Future of Work Programme and Oxford Martin Citi Fellow at the Oxford Martin School.

Calum Chace is an English writer and speaker, focusing on artificial Intelligence.

A robot tax is a legislative strategy to disincentivize the replacement of workers by machines and bolster the social safety net for those who are displaced. While the automation of manual labour has been contemplated since before the industrial revolution, the issue has received increased discussion in the 21st century due to newer developments such as machine learning.

Lawbots are a broad class of customer-facing legal AI applications that are used to automate specific legal tasks, such as document automation and legal research. The terms robot lawyer and lawyer bot are used as synonyms to lawbot. A robot lawyer or a robo-lawyer refers to a legal AI application that can perform tasks that are typically done by paralegals or young associates at law firms. However, there is some debate on the correctness of the term. Some commentators say that legal AI is technically speaking neither a lawyer nor a robot and should not be referred to as such. Other commentators believe that the term can be misleading and note that the robot lawyer of the future won't be one all-encompassing application but a collection of specialized bots for various tasks.

<i>Robots Will Steal Your Job, but Thats OK</i> 2012 book by Federico Pistono

Robots Will Steal Your Job, but That's OK: How to Survive the Economic Collapse and Be Happy is a book by Federico Pistono that was published in 2012. Initially self-published by the author, it was later picked up by publishers internationally and translated in six languages. It became a best-seller on Amazon.com, and was covered in various publications such as the BBC, the Financial Times and Época.

<i>Rise of the Robots</i> (book) 2015 book by Martin Ford

Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future is a 2015 book by American futurist Martin Ford. What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making "good jobs" obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working -- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries-education and health care-that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself.

Universal basic income and negative income tax, which is a related system, has been debated in the United States since the 1960s, and to a smaller extent also before that. During the 1960s and 1970s a number of experiments with negative income tax were conducted in United States and Canada. In the 1970s another and somewhat related welfare system was introduced instead, the Earned Income Tax Credit. The next big development in the history of basic income in the United States came in 1982, when the Alaska Permanent Fund was established. It has delivered some kind of basic income, financed from the state's oil and gas revenues, ever since.

In futurology, political science, and science fiction, a post-work society is a society in which the nature of work has been radically transformed and traditional employment has largely become obsolete due to technological progress.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">James Manyika</span> Zimbabwean-American consultant, researcher and writer

James M. Manyika is a Zimbabwean-American academic, consultant, and business executive. He is known for his research and scholarship into the intersection of technology and the economy, including artificial intelligence, robotics automation, and the future of work. He is Google's first Senior Vice President of Technology and Society, reporting directly to Google CEO Sundar Pichai. He focuses on "shaping and sharing" the company's view on the way tech affects society, the economy, and the planet. In April 2023, his role was expanded to Senior Vice President for Research, Technology & Society and includes overseeing Google Research and Google Labs and focusing more broadly on helping advance Google’s most ambitious innovations in AI, Computing and Science responsibly. He is also Chairman Emeritus of the McKinsey Global Institute.

References

  1. "Martin Ford Asks: Will Automation Lead to Economic Collapse?". SingularityHub. December 15, 2009. Retrieved June 22, 2015.
  2. Martin Ford (February 16, 2011). "Artificial Intelligence is the Next Killer App (Excerpt from The Lights in the Tunnel, 2009, pp. 81-85)". The Atlantic.
  3. "Million-dollar babies: As Silicon Valley fights for talent, universities struggle to hold on to their stars". The Economist. April 2, 2016.
  4. "Google CEO: We feel we're ahead of Apple, others in artificial intelligence". CNBC.com. June 1, 2016.
  5. "'Rise of the Robots' and 'Shadow Work'". The New York Times. May 11, 2015. Retrieved May 12, 2015.
  6. Paul Bedard (July 7, 2016). "White House warned of 'labor collapse' from robots". Washington Examiner. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
  7. Whitehouse discussion with Chief of Staff about Automation https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/06/30/white-house-conversation-automation
  8. "Review: 'Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future', by Martin Ford". Financial Times. May 8, 2015. Retrieved June 22, 2015.
  9. "Review: 'Rise of the Robots' - Soon They'll Be Driving It, Too". Wall Street Journal. May 15, 2015. Retrieved June 22, 2015.
  10. "'Rise of the Robots' and the Threat of a Jobless Future - Review". Los Angeles Times. May 21, 2015. Retrieved June 22, 2015.
  11. "Book Discussion on Rise of the Robots". C-SPAN Book TV. May 21, 2015. Retrieved June 22, 2015.
  12. Beard, Matthew (2017-03-02). "No more 'death & taxes' – but do we really want to live forever with nothing to do?". the Guardian. Retrieved 2018-08-16.
  13. "Notes on the Way Forward - Motherboard". Motherboard.
  14. "CBS Sunday Morning - Automation Nation". CBS News.
  15. "IMDb - How to Build a Human". IMDb.
  16. "HBO Official Trailer - The Truth about Killer Robots". Youtube.
  17. Katherine Cowdrey (November 18, 2015). "Oneworld's Ford wins FT McKinsey Business Book award". The Bookseller . Retrieved November 19, 2015.
  18. Vincent, James (27 November 2018). "This is when AI's top researchers think artificial general intelligence will be achieved". The Verge. Retrieved 19 June 2020.
  19. Piper, Kelsey (2 March 2019). "How will AI change our lives? Experts can't agree — and that could be a problem". Vox. Retrieved 19 June 2020.
  20. "Book Review: Architects of Intelligence". IEEE Spectrum: Technology, Engineering, and Science News. December 2018. Retrieved 19 June 2020.