Michael Kofman

Last updated
Michael Kofman
Михаил Кофман
Michael Kofman USNI.png
Kofman in 2022
Born
Mikhail Kofman

NationalityAmerican
OccupationMilitary analyst

Michael Kofman [a] is an American military analyst known for his expertise on the Russian Armed Forces. He is the director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, fellow of the Center for a New American Security, and until 2021 was a fellow of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center.

Contents

Personal life and education

Kofman was born in Kiev, Ukrainian SSR, Soviet Union (now Kyiv, Ukraine), [1] and lived in Nikolaev (now Mykolaiv) before immigrating to the U.S. in early 1991, [2] [3] prior to Ukrainian independence and the collapse of the Soviet Union. [4] Kofman speaks fluent Russian and English. [5] He attained a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science at Northeastern University, and a Master of Arts degree in international security at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. [6] He lives in Alexandria, Virginia. [1]

Career

From 2005 to 2006, [7] Kofman was a researcher at the United States Institute of Peace. [8] From 2008 to 2014, [7] he was a research fellow at the National Defense University. He served as a program manager and subject matter expert, advising U.S. government and military officials on matters related to Russia and Eurasia. [6] From 2014 to 2021, he was a fellow of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a U.S. think tank dedicated to the study of Russia and other post-Soviet states. [6] [9]

In 2015, [7] Kofman joined the CNA Corporation as a research scientist. His research focused on Russia and the former Soviet Union, and he specializes in the Russian Armed Forces, Russian military thought, capabilities, and strategy. As of 2020, he serves as the Research Program Director of the CNA's Russia Studies Program. [8] [10] He was also a fellow at the Modern War Institute from 2017 to 2018, [11] and has been a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security since 2021. [12] Kofman also hosts The Russia Contingency on War on the Rocks, which is a bi-weekly podcast analyzing the Russian military and the ongoing war in Ukraine. [13]

During the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started in 2022, as CNA's expert studying Russia's armed forces, Kofman's political commentary has been cited in connection with the conflict. [14] [15] In an interview with The New Yorker , Kofman said that the Russian military was "deeply optimistic about their ability to quickly get into the capital and force Zelensky to either flee or surrender. So the initial operation is a complete debacle. It was based entirely on political assumptions in Moscow that basically nothing had changed in Ukraine since 2014, and that they could conduct a slightly larger version of the 2014 operation." [16] [17] He has said that the Russian military was "not built for this war. In terms of manpower, readiness, and logistics, it was not designed to sustain strategic ground offensives or hold large tracts of terrain, especially in a country the size of [Ukraine]." [18] Speaking at an event hosted by RUSI, Kofman said that while the logistics problems with the Russian military's offensive are "oversold", that they will nevertheless become "extremely hard to undo ... militaries often have to learn problems the hard way." [19]

In February 2022, he claimed sending military support to Ukraine would not positively influence the defense of Ukraine in the war against Russia. [20]

Notes

  1. Russian: Михаил Кофман, romanized: Mikhail Kofman

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">George F. Kennan</span> American diplomat, political scientist, and historian (1904–2005)

George Frost Kennan was an American diplomat and historian. He was best known as an advocate of a policy of containment of Soviet expansion during the Cold War. He lectured widely and wrote scholarly histories of the relations between the USSR and the United States. He was also one of the group of foreign policy elders known as "The Wise Men".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Power projection</span> Capacity of a state to deploy and sustain military forces outside its territory

Power projection in international relations is the capacity of a state to deploy and sustain forces outside its territory. The ability of a state to project its power into an area may serve as an effective diplomatic lever, influencing the decision-making processes and acting as a potential deterrent on other states' behavior.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Andrei Kozyrev</span> Russian politician

Andrei Vladimirovich Kozyrev is a Russian politician who served as the former and the first Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation under President Boris Yeltsin, in office for the Russian SFSR from October 1990 and, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, from 1992 until January 1996 for Russia. In his position, he was credited with developing Russia's foreign policy immediately after the fall of the Soviet Union, although many in Russia have criticized him for being weak and not assertive enough in defending Russian interests in the face of NATO in places such as Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ba'athist Iraq.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kennan Institute</span>

The Kennan Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars was founded in 1974 to carry out studies of the Soviet Union (Sovietology), and subsequently of post-Soviet Russia and other post-Soviet states. The institute is widely regarded as the foremost institute for advanced Russia studies in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">China–Ukraine relations</span> Bilateral relations

China–Ukraine relations are foreign relations between Ukraine and China. The earliest contact in record between the nations date back to the first Russian Orthodox mission in China in 1715, which was led by the Ukrainian Archimandrite Hilarion (Lezhaysky). As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine recognized the People's Republic of China in October 1949. After Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the two countries built formal diplomatic relations in 1992, and declared a strategic partnership in 2011.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russia–Ukraine relations</span> Bilateral relations

There are currently no diplomatic or bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine. The two states have been at war since Russia invaded the Crimean peninsula in February 2014, and Russian-controlled armed groups seized Donbas government buildings in May 2014. Following the Ukrainian Euromaidan in 2014, Ukraine's Crimean peninsula was occupied by unmarked Russian forces, and later illegally annexed by Russia, while pro-Russia separatists simultaneously engaged the Ukrainian military in an armed conflict for control over eastern Ukraine; these events marked the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War. In a major escalation of the conflict on 24 February 2022, Russia launched a large scale military invasion across a broad front, causing Ukraine to sever all formal diplomatic ties with Russia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Taras Kuzio</span> Ukrainian political scientist

Taras Kuzio is a Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. His area of study is Russian and Ukrainian political, economic and security affairs.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mark Galeotti</span> British political scientist, lecturer, writer, and businessman

Mark Galeotti is a British historian, lecturer and writer on transnational crime and Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence. He is an honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, and an associate fellow in Euro-Atlantic geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy.

Hybrid warfare is a theory of military strategy, first proposed by Frank Hoffman, which employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, lawfare, regime change, and foreign electoral intervention. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or retribution. The concept of hybrid warfare has been criticized by a number of academics and practitioners due to its alleged vagueness, its disputed constitutive elements, and its alleged historical distortions.

Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government in Fairfax, Virginia, United States, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC. He researches and teaches classes about Russian politics and foreign policy, revolution, and the "War on Terror."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Andreas Umland</span> German political scientist (born 1967)

Andreas Umland is a German political scientist studying contemporary Russian and Ukrainian history as well as regime transitions. He has published on the post-Soviet extreme right, municipal decentralization, European fascism, post-communist higher education, East European geopolitics, Ukrainian and Russian nationalism, the Donbas and Crimea conflicts, as well as the neighborhood and enlargement policies of the European Union. He is a Senior Expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv as well as a research fellow at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs in Stockholm. He lives in Kyiv, and teaches as an Associate Professor of Politics at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. In 2005–2014, he was involved in the creation of a Master's program in German and European Studies administered jointly by the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and Jena University.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Defence University of Ukraine</span> Public university in Kyiv, Ukraine

The National Defence University of Ukraine (NDUU) is a university of higher military education in Ukraine, located in its capital city of Kyiv. Subordinated to the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the University trains officers specializing in national defence.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Center on Global Interests</span> American research organization

The Center on Global Interests (CGI) is an independent, nonprofit 501(c)(3) research organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center conducts research and analysis on global affairs, focusing on Russia and the post-Soviet space. CGI was founded in 2012 by Nikolai Zlobin, a Russian-American foreign policy expert and author of multiple books on foreign affairs. It has often partnered with leading experts and officials from the United States and Russia, including security expert Pavel Baev, Ambassador Thomas Pickering, Ambassador Steven Pifer, and Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kislyak. Several of the Center's events have been broadcast on C-SPAN.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russo-Ukrainian War</span> Armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine since 2014

The Russo-Ukrainian War began in February 2014. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied and annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas War. These first eight years of conflict also included naval incidents and cyberwarfare. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and began occupying more of the country, starting the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. The war has resulted in a refugee crisis and tens of thousands of deaths.

Kimberly Marten is an author and scholar specializing in international security, foreign policy, Russia, and environmental politics. She held the 5-year-term Ann Whitney Olin Professorship of Political Science at Barnard College from 2013 to 2018, and then returned to chair the Barnard Political Science Department for a second time from 2018-2021. She was the director of the Program on U.S.-Russia Relations at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute from 2015 to 2019, and the Harriman Institute published a profile of her career. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and a frequent media commentator.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Armed Forces of Ukraine</span> Combined military forces of Ukraine

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are the military forces of Ukraine. All military and security forces, including the Armed Forces, are under the command of the President of Ukraine and subject to oversight by a permanent Verkhovna Rada parliamentary commission. They trace their lineage to 1917, while the modern armed forces were formed again in 1991. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are the fifth largest armed force in the world in terms of both active personnel as well as total number of personnel with the eighth largest defence budget in the world, and it also operates one of the largest and most diverse drone fleets in the world. Due to the Russo-Ukrainian War, ongoing in 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been described as "the most battle-hardened in Europe," but has suffered many casualties.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mikhail Minakov</span> Ukrainian political scholar and historian

Mikhail Minakov is a philosopher, political scholar and historian, Doctor of Philosophy. His studies focus on human experience, social knowledge, the phenomenon of ideology, political creativity, and the history of modernization.

Blair Aldridge Ruble is a non-fiction writer and academic administrator whose work has focused on comparative urban studies as well as Russian and Ukrainian affairs.

Matthew Rojansky is an American academic, lawyer, and national security policy scholar. As of January 2022, he is President & CEO of the U.S. Russia Foundation for Economic Advancement and the Rule of Law (USRF), an American non-profit organization founded in 2008 that aims to strengthen relations between the United States and Russia and to promote the development of the private sector in the Russian Federation. He is an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He served as a director of the U.S.-Russia Foundation and founded the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Ukraine Program. From July 2013 to January 2022, Rojansky was the director of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, which focuses on Russia and Ukraine issues.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Gerasimov doctrine</span> Purported Russian military strategic concept

The Gerasimov Doctrine, named after the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov, is a pseudo-military doctrine created by the Western media and some Russian analysts. It is based on Gerasimov’s views about U.S. contemporary warfare, putting interstate conflict and warfare on a par with political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other non-military activities. It became known after Mark Galeotti coined the term in his blog "In Moscow Shadows" and the invasion and annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. Some Western analysts were convinced that the Russian actions reflected the "Gerasimov Doctrine" helping to spread the term and making it a buzzword.

References

  1. 1 2 "Proceedings Podcast Ep. 257: The Ukrainian Invasion, NATO, and the New World Order" via www.youtube.com.
  2. "11 Days in: Russia's Invasion Stumbles Forward". War on the Rocks. 7 March 2022.
  3. "Interpreting the First Few Days of the Russo-Ukrainian War". War on the Rocks. February 28, 2022.
  4. ""Суть событий": дополнительное время. 28.03.2022, 21-00 (МСК). ВДВОЕМ С МИХАИЛОМ КОФМАНОМ" (in Russian). March 28, 2022 via www.youtube.com.
  5. "Michael Kofman". World Affairs Council of the Desert . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  6. 1 2 3 "Michael Kofman". Wilson Center . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  7. 1 2 3 "Michael Kofman". LinkedIn . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  8. 1 2 "Michael Kofman". European Leadership Network . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  9. "Kennan Institute | About". Wilson Center . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  10. "Michael Kofman". CNA . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  11. "Michael Kofman". Modern War Institute . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  12. "Michael Kofman". Center for a New American Security . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  13. "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Michael Kofman" . Retrieved 21 September 2023.
  14. Howell, Jen Patja (2022-03-11). "The Lawfare Podcast: Michael Kofman on the State of the War in Ukraine". Lawfare . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  15. Basu, Zachary; Lawler, Dave (2022-03-02). "Russian forces land in Kharkiv as bombardment of Ukraine cities intensifies". Axios . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  16. Patrick, Aaron (2022-03-14). "Russia's problems in Ukraine are a management failure". Australian Financial Review . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  17. Chotiner, Isaac (2022-03-11). "The Russian Military's Debacle in Ukraine". The New Yorker . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  18. Epstein, Jake; Davis, Charles R. "Putin thought Russia's military could capture Kyiv in 2 days, but it still hasn't in 20". Business Insider . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  19. Sabbagh, Dan (2022-03-08). "Russia 'solving logistics problems' and could attack Kyiv within days – experts". The Guardian . Retrieved 2022-03-17.
  20. Cohen, Eliot A.; O'Brien, Phillips (2024-09-24). "The Russia-Ukraine War: A Study in Analytic Failure".{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)