History
The NGAD originated from Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) studies initiated in 2014 to explore concepts for air superiority systems of the 2030s for the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy. DARPA completed its Air Dominance Initiative study in March 2014 and based on the results, the Department of Defense acquisition chief Frank Kendall launched the Aerospace Innovation Initiative (AII) in 2015, also lead by DARPA, to develop X-plane prototypes to demonstrate technology for future fighter aircraft. [9] In 2016, the USAF followed up the DARPA studies with the Air Superiority 2030 (AS 2030) flight plan, but while the plan stated the need for a family of systems, it was still focused on a specific member of the family called the Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA); the DARPA AII X-plane prototypes would serve as full-scale flight demonstrators for the PCA. [10] [11] In 2018, AS 2030 evolved into the NGAD and expanded its focus from a single addition towards a suite of capabilities and was envisioned to be a "family of systems". [12] [13]
The NGAD program's overarching aim is to develop key technologies that would provide the Air Force with air dominance. These technologies revolve around several areas such as propulsion, stealth, advanced weapons, [14] digital design (CAD-based engineering), [15] [16] and thermal management of the aircraft signature. [17] The program changes traditional Air Force acquisition [18] by the separation of design, production, and support functions in the development process with a $9 billion budget through 2025. [17] [19] More frequent industry competitions and simulations in the design and manufacturing process are characteristic of the development program. [20]
While NGAD increased its scope from a single platform to a "family of systems", a crewed PCA fighter aircraft remains the centerpiece of the program. Envisaged as an F-22 successor, the PCA is intended to be a long-range, high-speed, stealthy sensor-shooter aircraft and initially was not planned to operate with uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft (CCA). [13] [21] [22] [4] In particular, NGAD aims to develop a system that addresses the operation needs of the Indo-Pacific theater of operations, where current USAF fighters lack sufficient range and payload. USAF commanders have noted that there may be two variants of NGAD: one with long range and payload for the Indo-Pacific and one more oriented to the relatively short ranges between possible battle areas in Europe. [22] The fighter is expected to leverage adaptive cycle engines being developed under the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program, with the General Electric XA102 and Pratt & Whitney XA103 competing for the propulsion system. [23] The DARPA X-plane demonstrators for the PCA first flew in 2019, and in September 2020, the USAF announced that they broken records with it. [24] [25] [26]
The crewed PCA fighter component of the NGAD was briefly envisioned to follow the rapid development and procurement cycles of the "Century Series" fighter aircraft of the 1950s and 1960s; dubbed "Digital Century Series" by Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (SAF/AQ) Will Roper, fighter designs would be continually iterated to enable the rapid insertion of new technology and procured in small batches. In May 2021, chief of staff of the USAF General Brown stated that the NGAD will start replacing the F-22 once it is operational in sufficient quantity, with the fielding goal in the 2030s. [27] The F-22 has also been used to test NGAD technology and some advances are expected to be applied to the F-22 as well. [28] The complexity and sophistication of modern aircraft design, however, eventually caused the "Digital Century Series" to be reevaluated compared to a more traditional development and procurement approach, with the debate still ongoing. Furthermore, advancements in automation technology has increased the role of CCAs in the USAF force planning, and the PCA is now expected to be supported by a variety of complementing "manned, unmanned, optionally manned, cyber, electronic" systems, including uncrewed CCAs to carry extra munitions and perform other missions. [13]
In June 2022, the USAF determined that critical technologies were ready to support the program for Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD). According to Roper, the first full-scale technology demonstrator prototype of the NGAD crewed fighter aircraft from the AII X-plane program had been flown in 2020, and by 2023, three separate prototypes had flown. [29] [30] The formal solicitation was announced in May 2023, with the goal of source selection in 2024. [31] [32] [33]
On 27 July 2023, Kathy Warden, CEO and President of Northrop Grumman, confirmed that the company notified the U.S. Air Force that it would not bid as a prime contractor for the program, leaving Boeing and Lockheed Martin as the probable two remaining contenders for the main manned fighter component of the program. [34]
As reported by Breaking Defense, [35] In July 2024, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall announced that the Air Force was "taking a pause" on the crewed component of the NGAD program. “With the platform itself, we’re taking a pause. With the rest of the elements of the air dominance family of systems, we’re moving forward as fast as we can.” Kendall also expressed confidence that the Air Force was "still going to do a sixth-generation crewed aircraft."
Air Force veterans and industry experts have expressed concern with the idea that the B-21 Raider would be able to penetrate a hostile integrated air defense system (IADS) without support from a crewed 6th-gen NGAD fighter. In 'Episode 196 – What's Up With NGAD?' on The Aerospace Advantage podcast by the Mitchell Institute, John 'JV' Venable, Air Force veteran and Senior Resident Fellow at the Mitchell Institute, argued "this idea that you don't need someone going in and sweeping out the threat in front of a B 21 is absolutely catastrophic." [36]
On September 4, 2024, Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James Slife reiterated the Air Force's decision to pause the PCA component of the NGAD program, stating that they were "starting at the beginning" with the requirements, according to reporting by The War Zone. [37] "I know what the mission that we have to get done is, but I don’t know that we need to build an airplane to do the mission," said Gen. Slife, referencing the NGAD's status as a system of systems rather than a single crewed fighter.
In December 2024, China revealed two stealth aircraft prototypes, which incited discussion on the then-paused NGAD program. Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute suggested the Chengdu aircraft could be the potential adversary to NGAD and give American planners incentives to continue the NGAD program. [38]
In March 2025, the United States Air Force leadership, speaking at the Air & Space Forces Association's (AFA) 2025 Warfare Symposium, concluded the NGAD program would be continued according to the study. Kenneth Wilsbach of the Air Combat Command (ACC) suggested that crewed sixth-generation aircraft will be necessary for the future air superiority environment, citing increasing risks posed by air defense and electronic warfare systems from adversaries and the Chinese sixth-generation aircraft development. [39] [40]
Selection
On March 21, 2025, the Air Force announced that the NGAD PCA aircraft would be designated F-47 and be designed and built by Boeing under a contract worth more than $20 billion. [41] [42] [a]
Development
In the FY2023 budget request, the Air Force allocated a total of $1.66 billion for the NGAD program. Further financial commitments are projected, with an estimated additional expenditure of $11.7 billion earmarked for the years spanning from FY2024 to FY2027. The cost of each plane was not disclosed by Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, but is expected to be in the "multiple hundreds of millions." [17]
In 2023, the Air Force projected approximately 200 manned NGAD fighters, although this is a notional figure for rough planning assumptions. [43] [44]
SMG Consulting shared an infographic on the program, showing dimensions, cost, and combat radius, based on the Lockheed Martin 6th generation fighter artist impressions. [45] [46] [47] On 30 July 2024, the Secretary of the Air Force temporarily placed the NGAD design effort on hold to further study design choices ahead of source selection. [48]
It has been reported that the original "scoot-and-hide" shelters located at Area 51 originally developed for the F-117 program have been re-purposed for NGAD. [49]
