Non-equilibrium economics

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Non-equilibrium economics or out-of-equilibrium economics is a branch of economic theory that examines the behavior of economic agents and markets in situations where traditional approaches of economic equilibrium do not hold.

Contents

Overview

Economic models in the tradition of partial or general equilibrium theory rely on the notion of economic equilibrium: because of quick price adaptation to an equilibrium price, supply equals demand and markets clear. Equilibrium theory goes back to the contributions by Léon Walras in 1874 and constitutes the core of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE), the current predominant framework of macroeconomic analysis. The goal to study the dynamics that may or may not lead to an equilibrium was already formulated by the developers of general equilibrium models such as Vilfredo Pareto, but despite some efforts, they were unable to describe the adaptive processes that were thought to converge to the states analyzed in static theory. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] Research in the tradition of Disequilibrium macroeconomics which was influential in the 1970s departed from some equilibrium assumptions such as market clearing and quick price adaption, studying markets with fixed prices, leading to models of “non-Walrasian” equilibrium with rationing, but not to a genuine out-of-equilibrium dynamic analysis. [6] [7] [8]

In contrast, non-equilibrium economics focuses on the dynamics of economic systems in states of flux, where imbalances, frictions, and external shocks can lead to persistent deviations from equilibrium or to multiple equilibria. This approach is used to study phenomena such as market crashes, economic crises, and the effects of policy interventions. By using approaches from complex systems, behavioral economics, and non-linear dynamics, out-of-equilibrium economics emphasizes the importance of time, uncertainty, bounded rationality and the role of institutions in shaping economic outcomes. It was developed starting in the 1980s with the spread of computational economics and is used in the fields of evolutionary and institutional economics, Post Keynesian economics, Austrian economics, Ecological economics, development and growth economics. [7] [9]

Model approaches

Agent-based computational economics

Agent-based computational economics studies economic processes as dynamic systems of interacting, bounded rational agents that usually follow some discrete decision sequence. Falling in the paradigms of complex adaptive systems and complexity economics, it analyzes the emergence of either a (statistical) equilibrium, but also discontinuities, tipping points, lock-ins or path dependencies. Different coordinating mechanisms such as price adaptation, auctions, matching or quantity rationing are implemented. [9] [10] [11] [12]

Circular Cumulative Causation

Circular cumulative causation is an economic concept developed by Gunnar Myrdal that describes a self-reinforcing process where initial changes in economic variables lead to further changes, creating a feedback loop that can amplify economic trends. By emphasizing the interconnectedness of economic activities, it tries to gains insights into issues like regional development, inequality, and the persistence of economic disparities. [13] [14]

Constrained Dynamics

Edgeworth box model with slow tatonnement, converging to a stationary state that differs from the usual equilibrium value because of false trading Glotzl-Glotzl-Richters-Edgeworth-Box-with-slow-tatonnement.png
Edgeworth box model with slow tatonnement, converging to a stationary state that differs from the usual equilibrium value because of false trading

Constrained dynamics models the economy as interacting, bounded rational agents that try to adjust the economic variables to improve their situation (hill climbing as opposed to utility maximization). Economic constraints such as the budget constraints or accounting identities are guaranteed by concepts similar to constraints in Lagrangian mechanics. [2] [5] [15]

Evolutionary Game Theory

Evolutionary game theory studies the strategic interactions of boundedly rational players, focusing both on the dynamic paths to reach equilibrium and the evolutionary stable equilibrium. Modeling concepts include differential equations, stochastic processes, graphs and evolutionary algorithms. [16] [17] [18]

Stock-Flow Consistent models

A stability analysis shows the parameter ranges in which an SFC model is stable or unstable. Njp506747f2 hr SFC model stability analysis.png
A stability analysis shows the parameter ranges in which an SFC model is stable or unstable.

Stock-flow consistent models (SFC) are a class of economic models that ensure coherence between stocks and flows in an economy, emphasizing the relationships between different sectors and their balance sheets, while maintaining consistency in accounting identities. Rejecting the classical dichotomy, they model the dynamic adaptation processes of real and financial variables for studying macroeconomic phenomena such as the effects of fiscal policy, financial instability, and the interactions between different economic agents. [20] [21] [22] [23]

Statistical Mechanics

The use of statistical mechanics in economics involves applying concepts and methods from physics to analyze and model complex economic systems, particularly those characterized by a large number of interacting agents. This approach allows economists to study emergent phenomena, such as market behavior and collective decision-making, by treating economic agents as particles in a statistical ensemble, thereby uncovering patterns, networks and distributions that arise from individual actions. [24] [25] [26]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Neoclassical economics</span> Approach to economics

Neoclassical economics is an approach to economics in which the production, consumption, and valuation (pricing) of goods and services are observed as driven by the supply and demand model. According to this line of thought, the value of a good or service is determined through a hypothetical maximization of utility by income-constrained individuals and of profits by firms facing production costs and employing available information and factors of production. This approach has often been justified by appealing to rational choice theory.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Vilfredo Pareto</span> Italian polymath (1848–1923)

Vilfredo Federico Damaso Pareto was an Italian polymath, whose areas of interest included sociology, civil engineering, economics, political science, and philosophy. He made several important contributions to economics, particularly in the study of income distribution and in the analysis of individuals' choices, and was one of the minds behind the Lausanne School of economics. He was also responsible for popularising the use of the term elite in social analysis. He has been described as "one of the last Renaissance scholars. Trained in physics and mathematics, he became a polymath whose genius radiated into nearly all other major fields of knowledge."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">General equilibrium theory</span> Theory of equilibrium between supply and demand

In economics, general equilibrium theory attempts to explain the behavior of supply, demand, and prices in a whole economy with several or many interacting markets, by seeking to prove that the interaction of demand and supply will result in an overall general equilibrium. General equilibrium theory contrasts with the theory of partial equilibrium, which analyzes a specific part of an economy while its other factors are held constant.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Post-Keynesian economics</span> School of economic thought

Post-Keynesian economics is a school of economic thought with its origins in The General Theory of John Maynard Keynes, with subsequent development influenced to a large degree by Michał Kalecki, Joan Robinson, Nicholas Kaldor, Sidney Weintraub, Paul Davidson, Piero Sraffa and Jan Kregel. Historian Robert Skidelsky argues that the post-Keynesian school has remained closest to the spirit of Keynes' original work. It is a heterodox approach to economics based on a non-equilibrium approach.

New Keynesian economics is a school of macroeconomics that strives to provide microeconomic foundations for Keynesian economics. It developed partly as a response to criticisms of Keynesian macroeconomics by adherents of new classical macroeconomics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Index of economics articles</span>

This aims to be a complete article list of economics topics:

A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices.

The policy-ineffectiveness proposition (PIP) is a new classical theory proposed in 1975 by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace based upon the theory of rational expectations, which posits that monetary policy cannot systematically manage the levels of output and employment in the economy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Heterodox economics</span> Rare, unpopular or uninfluential schools of economic thought

Heterodox economics is a broad, relative term referring to schools of economic thought which are not commonly perceived as belonging to mainstream economics. There is no absolute definition of what constitutes heterodox economic thought, as it is defined in constrast to the most prominent, influential or popular schools of thought in a given time and place.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Complexity economics</span> Application of complexity science to economics

Complexity economics is the application of complexity science to the problems of economics. It relaxes several common assumptions in economics, including general equilibrium theory. While it does not reject the existence of an equilibrium, it features an non-equilibrium approach and sees such equilibria as a special case and as an emergent property resulting from complex interactions between economic agents. The complexity science approach has also been applied to computational economics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Schools of economic thought</span> Group of economic thinkers who share or shared a common perspective on the way economies work

In the history of economic thought, a school of economic thought is a group of economic thinkers who share or shared a mutual perspective on the way economies function. While economists do not always fit within particular schools, particularly in the modern era, classifying economists into schools of thought is common. Economic thought may be roughly divided into three phases: premodern, early modern and modern. Systematic economic theory has been developed primarily since the beginning of what is termed the modern era.

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the area of computational economics that studies economic processes, including whole economies, as dynamic systems of interacting agents. As such, it falls in the paradigm of complex adaptive systems. In corresponding agent-based models, the "agents" are "computational objects modeled as interacting according to rules" over space and time, not real people. The rules are formulated to model behavior and social interactions based on incentives and information. Such rules could also be the result of optimization, realized through use of AI methods.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium</span> Macroeconomic method

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling is a macroeconomic method which is often employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, explaining historical time-series data, as well as future forecasting purposes. DSGE econometric modelling applies general equilibrium theory and microeconomic principles in a tractable manner to postulate economic phenomena, such as economic growth and business cycles, as well as policy effects and market shocks.

Microfoundations are an effort to understand macroeconomic phenomena in terms of economic agents' behaviors and their interactions. Research in microfoundations explores the link between macroeconomic and microeconomic principles in order to explore the aggregate relationships in macroeconomic models.

The neoclassical synthesis (NCS), or neoclassical–Keynesian synthesis is an academic movement and paradigm in economics that worked towards reconciling the macroeconomic thought of John Maynard Keynes in his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) with neoclassical economics.

New classical macroeconomics, sometimes simply called new classical economics, is a school of thought in macroeconomics that builds its analysis entirely on a neoclassical framework. Specifically, it emphasizes the importance of rigorous foundations based on microeconomics, especially rational expectations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of macroeconomic thought</span>

Macroeconomic theory has its origins in the study of business cycles and monetary theory. In general, early theorists believed monetary factors could not affect real factors such as real output. John Maynard Keynes attacked some of these "classical" theories and produced a general theory that described the whole economy in terms of aggregates rather than individual, microeconomic parts. Attempting to explain unemployment and recessions, he noticed the tendency for people and businesses to hoard cash and avoid investment during a recession. He argued that this invalidated the assumptions of classical economists who thought that markets always clear, leaving no surplus of goods and no willing labor left idle.

Jacques H. Drèze was a Belgian economist noted for his contributions to economic theory, econometrics, and economic policy as well as for his leadership in the economics profession. Drèze was the first President of the European Economic Association in 1986 and was the President of the Econometric Society in 1970.

Disequilibrium macroeconomics is a tradition of research centered on the role of deviation from equilibrium in economics. This approach is also known as non-Walrasian theory, equilibrium with rationing, the non-market clearing approach, and non-tâtonnement theory. Early work in the area was done by Don Patinkin, Robert W. Clower, and Axel Leijonhufvud. Their work was formalized into general disequilibrium models, which were very influential in the 1970s. American economists had mostly abandoned these models by the late 1970s, but French economists continued work in the tradition and developed fixprice models. Other approaches that focus on the dynamic processes and interactions in economic systems that are constantly changing and do not necessarily settle into a stable state are discussed as non-equilibrium economics.

Stock-flow consistent models (SFC) are a family of non-equilibrium macroeconomic models based on a rigorous accounting framework, that seeks to guarantee a correct and comprehensive integration of all the flows and the stocks of an economy. These models were first developed in the mid-20th century but have recently become popular, particularly within the post-Keynesian school of thought. Stock-flow consistent models are in contrast to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, which are used in mainstream economics.

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