W. Brian Arthur

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William Brian Arthur
Brian Arthur - World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2011.jpg
Arthur at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, 2011
Born (1945-07-31) 31 July 1945 (age 79)
Belfast, Northern Ireland
Citizenship
Academic career
Field Complexity economics
Institutions
Alma materLancaster University
University of Michigan
Doctoral
advisor		 Stuart Dreyfus
Contributions

William Brian Arthur (born 31 July 1945) is a Belfast-born economist credited with developing the modern approach to increasing returns. [1] He has lived and worked in Northern California for many years. He is an authority on economics in relation to complexity theory, technology and financial markets. He has been on the external faculty at the Santa Fe Institute, and a Visiting Researcher at the Intelligent Systems Lab [2] at PARC. He is credited with the invention of the El Farol Bar problem.

Contents

Biography

W. Brian Arthur was born in 1945 in Belfast, Northern Ireland. He received his BSc in electrical engineering at Queen's University Belfast (1966), an M. A. in Operational Research (1967) at Lancaster University, Lancaster, England, and an M. A. in Mathematics at the University of Michigan (1969). Arthur received his PhD in Operations Research (1973) and an M. A. in Economics (1973) from the University of California, Berkeley.

At age 37, Arthur was the youngest endowed chair holder at Stanford University. [3]

Arthur is the former Morrison Professor of Economics and Population Studies; Professor of Human Biology, Stanford University, 1983–1996. He is the co-founder of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies [4] at Stanford.

Arthur is one of the distinguished External Research Faculty [5] members at the Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. Arthur's long association with the Institute started in 1987 with the introduction and support of Stanford economist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, Kenneth Arrow, and Philip Warren Anderson, winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics. Arthur was named as the first director of the interdisciplinary Economics Program at the Institute beginning in 1988. He was named the Citibank Professor at the institute in 1994, with the endowment of Citibank and then-Citibank CEO John S. Reed. [6]

He served several terms on the Science Board [7] 1988–2006, and Board of Trustees, [8] 1994–2004, during his association with the institute.

Arthur was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship in 1987. [9] Arthur was also awarded the Schumpeter Prize in economics in 1990, [10] and the (inaugural) Lagrange Prize for complexity science in 2008.

Arthur was awarded an honorary Doctor of Economic Sciences degree from the National University of Ireland (2000), and an Honorary Doctor of Science Degree (Honoris Causa) from Lancaster University on 9 December 2009.

Arthur and several other Santa Fe Institute researchers are profiled extensively in the book Complexity by M. Mitchell Waldrop. [3]

He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society.

Work

Arthur is noted for his seminal works "studying the impacts of positive feedback or increasing returns in economies, and how these increasing returns magnify small, random occurrences in the market place." [11] These principles are especially significant in technology-specific industries where network effects commonly occur.(EL1)

Complexity theory

Arthur is one of the early economic researchers in the emerging complexity field. Specifically, his complexity studies focused on the "economics of high technology; how business evolves in an era of high technology; cognition in the economy; and financial markets." [12]

Arthur's comments on the evolution of complexity theory as a different way of seeing and conducting scientific inquiry:

Complexity theory is really a movement of the sciences. Standard sciences tend to see the world as mechanistic. That sort of science puts things under a finer and finer microscope. In biology the investigations go from classifying organisms to functions of organisms, then organs themselves, then cells, and then organelles, right down to protein and enzymes, metabolic pathways, and DNA. This is finer and finer reductionist thinking.

The movement that started complexity looks in the other direction. It’s asking, how do things assemble themselves? How do patterns emerge from these interacting elements? Complexity is looking at interacting elements and asking how they form patterns and how the patterns unfold. It’s important to point out that the patterns may never be finished. They’re open-ended. In standard science this hits some things that most scientists have a negative reaction to. Science doesn’t like perpetual novelty. [6]

How technology evolves

Arthur's book, The Nature of Technology: What it Is and How it Evolves, explores his belief that technology undergoes its own evolution, similar to Darwin's theory of evolution in Biology. Arthur's claim is that technology evolves out of earlier existing forms. He goes on to say that economies are not merely a container for these innovations, but rather economies arise as a result of new technological developments. [13]

See also

Publications

W. Brian Arthur has published several books, papers, articles and more. [14] A selection:

Related Research Articles

A complex system is a system composed of many components which may interact with each other. Examples of complex systems are Earth's global climate, organisms, the human brain, infrastructure such as power grid, transportation or communication systems, complex software and electronic systems, social and economic organizations, an ecosystem, a living cell, and, ultimately, for some authors, the entire universe.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kenneth Arrow</span> American economist (1921–2017)

Kenneth Joseph Arrow was an American economist, mathematician, writer, and political theorist. Along with John Hicks, he won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1972.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Philip W. Anderson</span> American physicist (1923–2020)

Philip Warren Anderson was an American theoretical physicist and Nobel laureate. Anderson made contributions to the theories of localization, antiferromagnetism, symmetry breaking, and high-temperature superconductivity, and to the philosophy of science through his writings on emergent phenomena. Anderson is also responsible for naming the field of physics that is now known as condensed matter physics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Santa Fe Institute</span> Nonprofit theoretical research institute in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

The Santa Fe Institute (SFI) is an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute located in Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States and dedicated to the multidisciplinary study of the fundamental principles of complex adaptive systems, including physical, computational, biological, and social systems. The institute is ranked 24th among the world's "Top Science and Technology Think Tanks" and 24th among the world's "Best Transdisciplinary Research Think Tanks" according to the 2020 edition of the Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports, published annually by the University of Pennsylvania.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Christopher Langton</span> American computer scientist

Christopher Gale Langton is an American computer scientist and one of the founders of the field of artificial life. He coined the term in the late 1980s when he organized the first "Workshop on the Synthesis and Simulation of Living Systems" at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in 1987. Following his time at Los Alamos, Langton joined the Santa Fe Institute (SFI), to continue his research on artificial life. He left SFI in the late 1990s, and abandoned his work on artificial life, publishing no research since that time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Henry Holland</span> American researcher in genetic algorithms (1929–2015)

John Henry Holland was an American scientist and professor of psychology and electrical engineering and computer science at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. He was a pioneer in what became known as genetic algorithms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">J. Doyne Farmer</span> American physicist and entrepreneur (b.1952)

J. Doyne Farmer is an American complex systems scientist and entrepreneur with interests in chaos theory, complexity and econophysics. He is Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, where he is also director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School. Additionally he is an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His current research is on complexity economics, focusing on systemic risk in financial markets and technological progress. During his career he has made important contributions to complex systems, chaos, artificial life, theoretical biology, time series forecasting and econophysics. He co-founded Prediction Company, one of the first companies to do fully automated quantitative trading. While a graduate student he led a group that called itself Eudaemonic Enterprises and built the first wearable digital computer, which was used to beat the game of roulette. He is a founder and the Chief Scientist of Macrocosm Inc, a company devoted to scaling up complexity economics methods and reducing them to practice.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paul Romer</span> American economist

Paul Michael Romer is an American economist and policy entrepreneur who is a University Professor in Economics at Boston College. Romer is best known as the former Chief Economist of the World Bank and for co-receiving the 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work in endogenous growth theory. He also coined the term "mathiness," which he describes as misuse of mathematics in economic research.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">George Cowan</span> American physical chemist and businessperson (1920–2012)

George Arthur Cowan was an American physical chemist, a businessman and philanthropist.

Simon Asher Levin is an American ecologist and the James S. McDonnell Distinguished University Professor in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the director of the Center for BioComplexity at Princeton University. He specializes in using mathematical modeling and empirical studies in the understanding of macroscopic patterns of ecosystems and biological diversities.

Complexity economics is the application of complexity science to the problems of economics. It relaxes several common assumptions in economics, including general equilibrium theory. While it does not reject the existence of an equilibrium, it sees such equilibria as "a special case of nonequilibrium", and as an emergent property resulting from complex interactions between economic agents. The complexity science approach has also been applied to computational economics.

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the area of computational economics that studies economic processes, including whole economies, as dynamic systems of interacting agents. As such, it falls in the paradigm of complex adaptive systems. In corresponding agent-based models, the "agents" are "computational objects modeled as interacting according to rules" over space and time, not real people. The rules are formulated to model behavior and social interactions based on incentives and information. Such rules could also be the result of optimization, realized through use of AI methods.

Innovation economics is new, and growing field of economic theory and applied/experimental economics that emphasizes innovation and entrepreneurship. It comprises both the application of any type of innovations, especially technological, but not only, into economic use. In classical economics this is the application of customer new technology into economic use; but also it could refer to the field of innovation and experimental economics that refers the new economic science developments that may be considered innovative. In his 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, economist Joseph Schumpeter introduced the notion of an innovation economy. He argued that evolving institutions, entrepreneurs and technological changes were at the heart of economic growth. However, it is only in recent years that "innovation economy," grounded in Schumpeter's ideas, has become a mainstream concept".

Nathan Rosenberg was an American economist specializing in the history of technology.

Scott E. Page is an American social scientist and John Seely Brown Distinguished University Professor of Complexity, Social Science, and Management at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, where he has been working since 2000. He has also been director of the Center for the Study of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan (2009–2014) and an external faculty member at the Santa Fe Institute.

Masahiko Aoki was a Japanese economist, Tomoye and Henri Takahashi Professor Emeritus of Japanese Studies in the Economics Department, and Senior Fellow of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Aoki was known for his work in comparative institutional analysis, corporate governance, the theory of the firm, and comparative East Asian development.

Duncan K. Foley is an American economist. He is the Leo Model Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Previously, he was Associate Professor of Economics at MIT and Stanford, and Professor of Economics at Columbia University. He has held visiting professorships at Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University, UC Berkeley, and Dartmouth College, as well as the New School for Social Research.

Matthew Owen Jackson is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, an external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute, and a fellow of CIFAR.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">J. Stephen Lansing</span> American anthropologist and complexity scientist

J. Stephen Lansing is an American anthropologist and complexity scientist. He is especially known from his decades of research on the emergent properties of human-environmental interactions in Bali, Borneo and the Malay Archipelago; social-ecological modeling, and complex adaptive systems. He is an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute and the Complexity Science Hub Vienna; a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford; a visiting scholar at the Hoffman Global Institute for Business and Society at INSEAD Singapore, and emeritus professor of anthropology at the University of Arizona.

Stefan Thurner is an Austrian physicist and complexity researcher. He has been professor for Science of Complex Systems at the Medical University of Vienna since 2009, external professor at the Santa Fe Institute since 2007, and guest professor at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore since 2016.

References

  1. ↑ Foreword by Nobel Economist Kenneth Arrow to Arthur's book Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy
  2. ↑ "Intelligent Systems Lab". Archived from the original on 17 October 2007. Retrieved 17 October 2007.
  3. 1 2 Complexity, M. Mitchell Waldrop, first published 1992.
  4. ↑ Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies
  5. ↑ "External Research Faculty". Archived from the original on 12 October 2007. Retrieved 28 October 2007.
  6. 1 2 "Coming from Your Inner Self, Conversation with W. Brian Arthur, Xerox PARC, April 16, 1999, by Joseph Jaworski, Gary Jusela, C. Otto Scharmer". [Dialog on Leadership]. Archived from the original on 11 October 2007. Retrieved 27 October 2007.
  7. ↑ Science Board,
  8. ↑ Board of Trustees
  9. ↑ "John Simon Guggenheim Foundation | W. Brian Arthur". www.gf.org. Retrieved 13 September 2016.
  10. ↑ International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society, Schumpeter Prize in Economics Archived 29 September 2007 at the Wayback Machine
  11. ↑ "Legg Mason conference bio for W. Brian Arthur". [Legg Mason]. Retrieved 19 November 2007.
  12. ↑ "Short Background: Brian Arthur". Santa Fe Institute . Retrieved 27 October 2007.
  13. ↑ "Brian Arthur". Santa Fe Institute . Retrieved 19 April 2019.
  14. ↑ For a further selection of papers, articles, lectures and papers, see Some Selected Papers

Further reading

The book Complexity, by M. Mitchell Waldrop, contains a biographical profile of W. Brian Arthur, and a description of Arthur's work at Stanford and at the Santa Fe Institute.

Source: The Inner Path to Knowledge Creation, by Joseph Jaworski, contains the story of the U-Process and W. Brian Arthur's contribution to its discovery, based on "Coming From Your Inner Self", reference above.

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