Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

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Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
AbbreviationNPEC
Formation1994
Headquarters Arlington, Virginia
Executive Director
 Henry D. Sokolski
Website npolicy.org

The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) is an American nonpartisan think tank founded in 1994 to educate policymakers, the media, and academics about how to control the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). [1] [2] NPEC's policy papers urge the United States government to pursue a harder line with potential proliferators of nuclear arms, [1] in contrast to the more "upbeat view" that the risks of nuclear weapons proliferation can be safely managed as nuclear energy programs become more widespread. [3]

Contents

Programs

Each year, the NPEC Public Policy Fellowship is offered to young and mid-career government professionals to provide a rigorous understanding of how and why nuclear proliferation occurs. [4] As of February 2018, roughly 150 professionals had completed the course, and were working for both Democratic and Republic members of Congress, staffing committees, and working for the State Department and the Pentagon. [4] In addition, NPEC offers a Space Policy Course taught by space policy practitioners and experts. [5]

Funding

A nonpartisan, nonprofit educational research organization, [2] NPEC has received funding from foundations including the MacArthur Foundation, which awarded 8 grants totalling $2,992,000 between 2008 and 2021. [6] NPEC has also received funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. [7]

Policy stances and commentary

The NPEC website (npolicy.org) has been called a "goldmine" of information related to the sources of fissile material. [8] Henry D. Sokolski, the founder and executive director of NPEC, has argued that the current controls for nuclear nonproliferation must be tightened, [3] and that government leaders are not treating the issue of nuclear weapons proliferation with sufficient urgency. [9] While Sokolski has suggested in the past that the United States should distinguish between "progressive and illiberal regimes" in its approach to nonproliferation policy, [2] he has also warned that the U.S. should avoid incentivizing allies such as Japan and South Korea to increase nuclear fuel production. [10] [11] Facts on File has described Sokolski as "hawkish" and has suggested that NPEC is more closely aligned with Republican administrations, pointing to its support of the first George W. Bush administration, [2] when it praised the nuclear disarmament of Libya and Iraq, as well as the enforcement of export controls. [12] However, NPEC was critical of Bush's second term, including its "overly generous nuclear cooperation with India, weak sanctions against Iran, and winking at potentially dangerous nuclear programs in Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, and the GCC states." [12]

Russia and Ukraine

NPEC Executive Director Henry Sokolski has been an active commentator on the dangers posed by Russia's seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which he argues has not only "raised the specter of a military-induced Fukushima", but also requires an active reassessment by the Pentagon of the implications of waging war where nuclear plants operate; taking on "a more active role in reviewing US nuclear license applications"; and strengthening guidance on targeting nuclear plants in war. [13] He has also suggested that Russia may be threatening to use nuclear weapons because the war with Ukraine has exposed Russia's military weaknesses and lack of high-tech weaponry. [14]

China nuclear buildup

In 2021, NPEC published an edited volume, China's Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords? The NPEC report found that China had the capability to produce between 990 and 1,550 warheads by 2030, using the weapons-grade plutonium that could be produced using civilian reactors that were under construction. [15] Contributors to the report included two consecutive United States assistant secretaries of state; [15] Hui Zhang of Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom; [16] and many others. The report was cited and discussed widely in publications such as Reuters, [16] the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, [15] and Popular Mechanics. [17] In January 2022, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published "A China–US war in space: The after-action report" by Henry Sokolski, which analyzed a three-move space war game carried out by NPEC, with support from current and former officials of the Departments of State and Defense, as well as members of the intelligence community and space industry. [18]

Other issues

Sokolski has testified before Congress on numerous occasions on various nuclear issues, including civilian nuclear cooperation agreements (sometimes known as 123 agreements). [19] [20] In a March 21, 2018 hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Sokolski stated, "Failure to require Riyadh to forswear enriching or reprocessing in the text of a US-Saudi nuclear agreement (either by excluding this condition or proposing to put a sunset on it) risks pouring kerosene on the embers of nuclear proliferation already present in the Middle East." [21]

Principals

Henry D. Sokolski, Executive Director of NPEC Henry D. Sokolski.jpg
Henry D. Sokolski, Executive Director of NPEC

Executive Director Henry D. Sokolski has run the NPEC since 1994. [9] [22] A former Pentagon official, Sokolski served as deputy for nonproliferation under Paul Wolfowitz from 1989 to 1993, when Wolfowitz was Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. [9] He studied with Cold War strategist Albert Wohlstetter at University of Chicago. [9]

NPEC's program advisor Victor Gilinsky has been an independent consultant to NPEC, primarily on nuclear energy matters. [23] From 1975 to 1984, he served as a two-term commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. [23]

Defense policy analyst Gregory S. Jones, publisher of the website Proliferation Matters, has worked with NPEC in the past as a senior research analyst. [24] He has also worked with RAND and Pan Heuristics, and is the author of Reactor-Grade Plutonium and Nuclear Weapons: Exploding the Myths (2018), published by NPEC. [24]

NPEC research fellows have included Zachary Keck in Public Affairs; [25] Robert Zarate; [26] Thomas Riisager in Russian Studies; [27] John Spacapan in Public Affairs; [28] and Carly Kinsella. [29]

Recent publications

Books and articles by NPEC-affiliated authors:

Books and reports published by NPEC:

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons</span> International treaty to prevent spread of nuclear weapons

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament. Between 1965 and 1968, the treaty was negotiated by the Eighteen Nation Committee on Disarmament, a United Nations-sponsored organization based in Geneva, Switzerland.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nuclear proliferation</span> Spread of nuclear weapons

Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as governments fear that more countries with nuclear weapons will increase the possibility of nuclear warfare, de-stabilize international or regional relations, or infringe upon the national sovereignty of nation states.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nuclear disarmament</span> Act of eliminating nuclear weapons

Nuclear disarmament is the act of reducing or eliminating nuclear weapons. Its end state can also be a nuclear-weapons-free world, in which nuclear weapons are completely eliminated. The term denuclearization is also used to describe the process leading to complete nuclear disarmament.

Arms control is a term for international restrictions upon the development, production, stockpiling, proliferation and usage of small arms, conventional weapons, and weapons of mass destruction. Arms control is typically exercised through the use of diplomacy which seeks to impose such limitations upon consenting participants through international treaties and agreements, although it may also comprise efforts by a nation or group of nations to enforce limitations upon a non-consenting country.

<i>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists</i> Nonprofit organization concerning science and global security issues

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is a nonprofit organization concerning science and global security issues resulting from accelerating technological advances that have negative consequences for humanity. The Bulletin publishes content at both a free-access website and a bi-monthly, nontechnical academic journal. The organization has been publishing continuously since 1945, when it was founded by former Manhattan Project scientists as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists of Chicago immediately following the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The organization is also the keeper of the symbolic Doomsday Clock, the time of which is announced each January.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russia and weapons of mass destruction</span>

The Russian Federation is known to possess or have possessed three types of weapons of mass destruction: nuclear weapons, biological weapons, and chemical weapons. It is one of the five nuclear-weapon states recognized under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States and weapons of mass destruction</span>

The United States is known to have possessed three types of weapons of mass destruction: nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, and biological weapons. The U.S. is the only country to have used nuclear weapons on another country, when it detonated two atomic bombs over two Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. It had secretly developed the earliest form of the atomic weapon during the 1940s under the title "Manhattan Project". The United States pioneered the development of both the nuclear fission and hydrogen bombs. It was the world's first and only nuclear power for four years, from 1945 until 1949, when the Soviet Union produced its own nuclear weapon. The United States has the second-largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, after the Russian Federation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">India and weapons of mass destruction</span>

India possesses nuclear weapons and previously developed chemical weapons. Although India has not released any official statements about the size of its nuclear arsenal, recent estimates suggest that India has 160 nuclear weapons and has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 200 nuclear weapons. In 1999, India was estimated to have 800 kilograms (1,800 lb) of separated reactor-grade plutonium, with a total amount of 8,300 kilograms (18,300 lb) of civilian plutonium, enough for approximately 1,000 nuclear weapons. India has conducted nuclear weapons tests in a pair of series namely Pokhran I and Pokhran II.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pakistan and weapons of mass destruction</span> Pakistani nuclear weapons program

Pakistan is one of nine states to possess nuclear weapons. Pakistan began development of nuclear weapons in January 1972 under Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who delegated the program to the Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) Munir Ahmad Khan with a commitment to having the device ready by the end of 1976. Since PAEC, which consisted of over twenty laboratories and projects under reactor physicist Munir Ahmad Khan, was falling behind schedule and having considerable difficulty producing fissile material, Abdul Qadeer Khan, a metallurgist working on centrifuge enrichment for Urenco, joined the program at the behest of the Bhutto administration by the end of 1974. As pointed out by Houston Wood, "The most difficult step in building a nuclear weapon is the production of fissile material"; as such, this work in producing fissile material as head of the Kahuta Project was pivotal to Pakistan developing the capability to detonate a nuclear weapon by the end of 1984.

William C. Potter is Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies and Founding Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (MIIS). He also directs the MIIS Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Missile Technology Control Regime</span> 1987 arms control understanding among 35 nations including the G7

The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is a multilateral export control regime. It is an informal political understanding among 35 member states that seek to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology. The regime was formed in 1987 by the G-7 industrialized countries. The MTCR seeks to limit the risks of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by controlling exports of goods and technologies that could make a contribution to delivery systems for such weapons. In this context, the MTCR places particular focus on rockets and unmanned aerial vehicles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500 kg (1,100 lb) to a range of at least 300 km and on equipment, software, and technology for such systems.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">South Africa and weapons of mass destruction</span>

From the 1960s to the 1990s, South Africa pursued research into weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons under the apartheid government. Six nuclear weapons were assembled. South African strategy was, if political and military instability in Southern Africa became unmanageable, to conduct a nuclear weapon test in a location such as the Kalahari desert, where an underground testing site had been prepared, to demonstrate its capability and resolve—and thereby highlight the peril of intensified conflict in the region—and then invite a larger power such as the United States to intervene.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">South Korea and weapons of mass destruction</span>

South Korea has the raw materials and equipment to produce a nuclear weapon but has not opted to make one. In August 2004, South Korea revealed the extent of its highly secretive and sensitive nuclear research programs to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including some experiments which were conducted without the obligatory reporting to the IAEA called for by South Korea's safeguards agreement. The failure to report was reported by the IAEA Secretariat to the IAEA Board of Governors; however, the IAEA Board of Governors decided to not make a formal finding of noncompliance. However, South Korea has continued on a stated policy of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and has adopted a policy to maintain a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Anti-nuclear movement</span> Social movement

The anti-nuclear movement is a social movement that opposes various nuclear technologies. Some direct action groups, environmental movements, and professional organisations have identified themselves with the movement at the local, national, or international level. Major anti-nuclear groups include Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, Peace Action, Seneca Women's Encampment for a Future of Peace and Justice and the Nuclear Information and Resource Service. The initial objective of the movement was nuclear disarmament, though since the late 1960s opposition has included the use of nuclear power. Many anti-nuclear groups oppose both nuclear power and nuclear weapons. The formation of green parties in the 1970s and 1980s was often a direct result of anti-nuclear politics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center</span> Israeli research center

The Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center is an Israeli nuclear installation located in the Negev desert, about thirteen kilometers south-east of the city of Dimona. In August 2018, it was renamed after the late President and Prime Minister of Israel, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Shimon Peres.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Henry D. Sokolski</span>

Henry D. Sokolski is the founder and executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington-based think tank promoting a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues among policymakers, scholars, and the media. He teaches as an adjunct professor at The Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. and at the University of Utah and has an appointment as Senior Fellow for Nuclear Security Studies at the University of California at San Diego, School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Nuclear history of the United States describes the history of nuclear affairs in the United States whether civilian or military.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ukraine and weapons of mass destruction</span> Discussion of Ukraines status as a former nuclear state

Prior to 1991, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and had Soviet nuclear weapons in its territory. On December 1, 1991, Ukraine, the second most powerful republic in the Soviet Union (USSR), voted overwhelmingly for independence, which ended any realistic chance of the Soviet Union staying together even on a limited scale. More than 90% of the electorate expressed their support for Ukraine's declaration of independence, and they elected the chairman of the parliament, Leonid Kravchuk, as the first president of the country. At the meetings in Brest, Belarus on December 8, and in Alma Ata on December 21, the leaders of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine formally dissolved the Soviet Union and formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Jeffrey Lewis is an American expert in nuclear nonproliferation and geopolitics, currently an Adjunct Professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program. He has written two books on China's nuclear weapons, and numerous journal and magazine articles, blog posts, and podcasts on nonproliferation and related topics.

References

  1. 1 2 Webb, Gregory (December 6, 2003). "Guide to the Web – Special Report – National Journal highlights useful web sites in 50 issue areas – from Afghanistan to gay marriage to Social Security". National Journal. 35 (49) – via EBSCOHost.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Margulies, Phillip (2008). Nuclear Nonproliferation. New York: Facts on File. pp. 219–220, 272. ISBN   9780816072118.
  3. 1 2 "Books of Note". Arms Control Today. 45 (1): 36. January–February 2015. JSTOR   24336525.
  4. 1 2 Oswald, Rachel (February 5, 2018). "Nonproliferation Expert Schools Hill Aides on the Danger of Nuclear Annihilation". Congressional Quarterly . Retrieved October 27, 2022.
  5. ↑ "Space Policy Course Prospectus". Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  6. ↑ "Nonproliferation Policy Education Center". MacArthur Foundation. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  7. ↑ "Carnegie Corporation awards $13.5 million in 1Q grants". Philanthropy News Digest. April 9, 2021. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  8. ↑ Haggard, Stephan (October 19, 2017). "Henry Sokolski's Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future". Petersen Institute for International Economics. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Sangillo, Greg; Kukis, Mark (May 22, 2004). "Nuclear, and Other, Worries". National Journal. 36 (21) – via EBSCOHost.
  10. ↑ Sokolski, Henry (April 5, 2013). "Pyongyang Is Not Our Only Nuclear Worry". The National Review.
  11. ↑ Sokolski, Henry (May 8, 2016). "Japan and South Korea May Soon Go Nuclear". The Wall Street Journal.
  12. 1 2 Sokolski, Henry (Spring 2007). "Nonproliferation, By the Numbers". The Journal of International Security Affairs– via NPEC.
  13. ↑ Sokolski, Henry (2022). "Present Danger: Nuclear Power Plants in War". Parameters. No. 4. p. 52. doi:10.55540/0031-1723.3178 . Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  14. ↑ LaFranchi, Howard (October 17, 2022). "All that nuclear talk: Is the unthinkable suddenly possible?". The Christian Science Monitor . Retrieved November 11, 2022.
  15. 1 2 3 Kristensen, Hans M.; Korda, Matt (November 15, 2021). "Nuclear Notebook: Chinese nuclear forces, 2021". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  16. 1 2 Gardner, Timothy (March 25, 2021). "China nuclear reprocessing to create stockpiles of weapons-level materials – experts". Reuters . Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  17. ↑ Delbert, Caroline (May 25, 2021). "China Is Building Two Secret Nuclear Reactors. Scientists Are Worried". Popular Mechanics . Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  18. ↑ Sokolski, Henry (January 2022). "A China-US war in space: The after-action report". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. doi:10.1080/00963402.2021.2014230.
  19. ↑ "The Future of International Civilian Nuclear Cooperation". House Foreign Affairs Committee. July 10, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  20. ↑ "The Future of U.S. International Nuclear Cooperation". House Foreign Affairs Committee. May 6, 2010.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  21. ↑ Sokolski, Henry (March 21, 2018). "Keeping the Middle East from Becoming a Nuclear Wild, Wild West" (PDF). Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa. p. 2.
  22. ↑ "Henry Sokolski". The Institute of World Politics. June 11, 2019. Retrieved October 3, 2021.
  23. 1 2 "NPEC Leadership & Staff". NPEC – Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  24. 1 2 "Contributors". Nonproliferation Review. 26 (1–2): 3–6. June 3, 2019. doi:10.1080/10736700.2019.1608680. S2CID   219626910.
  25. ↑ Keck, Zachary (2022). "Atomic Friends: How America Deals with Nuclear-Armed Allies". Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
  26. ↑ "Robert Zarate". C-SPAN. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  27. ↑ Sokolski, Henry; Riisager, Thomas, eds. (2002). "About the Contributors". Beyond Nunn-Lugar: Curbing the Next Wave of Weapons Proliferation Threats From Russia. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. p. 262.
  28. ↑ "John Spacapan". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  29. ↑ Sokolski, Henry D.; Clawson, Patrick, eds. (January 2004). "Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions" (PDF). Iran Watch: Tracking Iran's Unconventional Weapon Capabilities. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
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