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Opinion polling for Canadian federal elections |
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2000 |
Opinion polls |
2004 |
Opinion polls |
2006 |
Opinion polls |
2008 |
Opinion polls |
2011 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election of 2006 (held on 23 January 2006) showed a long period of variable support for the governing Liberal Party of Canada and opposition Conservative Party of Canada. Prior to and throughout much of the campaign, the Liberals held a small lead over the Conservatives; as of early January 2006, the Conservatives had taken the lead. This was confirmed on election day when the Conservatives won a plurality of votes and seats, being empowered to form a minority government in the 39th Canadian parliament.
In the leadup to the 2006 federal election, several opinion polls were commissioned to gauge the voting intentions of Canadians, particularly in the wake of Jean Brault's testimony at the Gomery Commission on 7 April 2005. The results of these polls showed a dip in support for the Liberals, which encouraged the Conservatives to seek an early election by tabling a non-confidence motion. However, Liberal support recovered following an agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP) to support some changes to the federal budget and a number of incidents involving Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Gurmant Grewal that hurt the Conservatives. Consistently since the Brault testimony, the polls have indicated that an election would result in an increase in the number of seats for the Bloc Québécois and NDP, and cyclical gains and losses for the Conservatives inversely to the Liberals.
In November 2005, the first report by Justice John Gomery was released to the public; subsequently, the poll numbers for the Liberals again dropped. Just days later, a new poll (Strategic Counsel: 6 November 2005) showed the Liberals were already bouncing back. On 28 November 2005, the minority Liberal government succumbed to another Conservative non-confidence motion supported by the three opposition parties and the writs for an election were dropped. The Conservatives achieved near parity but, early in the campaign, again fell back behind the Liberals. Renewed accusations of corruption and impropriety at the end of 2005 – amid Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) criminal probes concerning possible government leaks regarding income trust tax changes and advertising sponsorships – led to an upswing of Conservative support again and gave them a lead over the Liberals, portending a possible change in government.
Polling figures for the NDP increased slightly, while Bloc figures experienced a slight dip; figures for the Green Party did not change appreciably throughout the campaign.
The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.
Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GPC | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election | 23 January 2006 | 30.2 | 36.3 | 17.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 6.1 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 22 January 2006 | 27 | 37 | 19 | 11 | 6 | ± 2% | 2,500 | 10 | |||
Nanos Research | 22 January 2006 | 30.1 | 36.4 | 17.4 | 10.6 | 5.6 | ± 3.1% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6.3 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 22 January 2006 | HTML | 27 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 4 | ± 1.1% | 9,648 | 11 | ||
Nanos Research | 21 January 2006 | 28.1 | 37.0 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | ± 3.1% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 8.9 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 21 January | 27 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 6 | ± 2.2% | 2,000 | 10 | |||
Nanos Research | 20 January | 29.4 | 36.2 | 17.3 | 11.0 | 6.1 | ± 3.1% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6.8 | ||
EKOS | 20 January | 26.9 | 37.1 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 10.2 | |||||
EKOS | 20 January | 24.4 | 38.4 | 19.8 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 14 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 19 January | 26 | 38 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 12 | |||||
EKOS | 19 January | 27.0 | 37.1 | 19.7 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 10.1 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 19 January | 28 | 38 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 10 | |||||
Nanos Research | 19 January | 29.0 | 35.5 | 18.8 | 11.1 | 5.6 | ± 2.9% | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6.5 | ||
EKOS | 19 January [3] | 27.3 | 37.4 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 9.9 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 18 January | 28 | 37 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 9 | |||||
Nanos Research | 18 January | 30.7 | 37.0 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 6.3 | |||||
EKOS | 18 January [3] | 29.3 | 35.1 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 5.8 | |||||
Leger Marketing | 17 January | 29 | 38 | 17 | 11 | — | 9 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 17 January | 25 | 41 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 16 | |||||
Nanos Research | 17 January | 31.5 | 36.9 | 17.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | |||||
EKOS | 17 January | 27.2 | 36.9 | 19.6 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 9.7 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 16 January | 24 | 42 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 18 | |||||
Nanos Research | 16 January | 30 | 37 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 7 | |||||
EKOS | 16 January [3] | 29.6 | 35.8 | 19.4 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 6.2 | |||||
Decima Research | 15 January | 27 | 37 | 18 | 11 | — | ± 3.1% | 1017 | telephone | 10 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 15 January | 26 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 12 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 15 January | 27 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 13 | |||||
Nanos Research | 15 January | 29 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 8 | |||||
EKOS | 15 January | 27.2 | 38.6 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | ± 3.2 | 968 | Telephone | 11.4 | ||
Nanos Research | 14 January | 30 | 38 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 8 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 14 January | 27 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 13 | |||||
Nanos Research | 13 January | 29 | 38 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 9 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 12 January | 28 | 38 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 10 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 12 January | HTML | 29 | 37 | 18 | 10 | 5 | |||||
Nanos Research | 12 January | 31 | 40 | 14 | 10 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 9 | ||
EKOS | 12 January | 28.3 | 37.6 | 18.1 | 11.6 | 3.7 | ± 2.0 | 2,045 | ||||
EKOS | 12 January [3] | 27.4 | 38.1 | 18.1 | 11.5 | 4.5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 11 January | 27 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 11 January | 29 | 38 | 16 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 9 | ||
EKOS | 11 January [3] | 28.8 | 36.3 | 17.9 | 13.3 | 2.8 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 10 January | 28 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 1,500 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 10 January | 30 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 9 | ||
EKOS | 10 January [3] | 29.9 | 37.1 | 17.6 | 11.6 | 3.2 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 9 January | 28 | 38 | 16 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 9 January | 31 | 35 | 17 | 13 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 4 | ||
EKOS | 9 January | 26.8 | 39.1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 5.4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 8 January | 26 | 37 | 18 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Decima Research | 8 January | 27 | 36 | 20 | 11 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 8 January | 31 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 3 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 8 January | 29 | 37 | 15 | 13 | 6 | ± 2.5 | 1,500 | 8 | |||
Nanos Research | 7 January | 32 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 2 | ||
Nanos Research | 6 January | 32 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 6 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 3 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 5 January | 31 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 5 | ± 2.2 | 2,004 | 4 | |||
EKOS | 5 January | 30.8 | 36.0 | 17.5 | 10.6 | 4.7 | ± 2.2 | 1,968 | ||||
Strategic Counsel | 5 January | 31 | 33 | 17 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 5 January | 33 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 5 | ± 3.2 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 1 | ||
Leger Marketing | 4 January | 32 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 4 January | 32 | 32 | 17 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 4 January | 33 | 35 | 15 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.2 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 2 | ||
EKOS | 4 January | 30.4 | 36.2 | 17.9 | 10.4 | 4.7 | ± 2.7 | 1,386 | ||||
Strategic Counsel | 3 January | HTML | 32 | 32 | 17 | 13 | 6 | ± 2.5 | 1,500 | 0 | ||
Nanos Research | 3 January | 33 | 36 | 15 | 13 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 3 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 31 December 2005 | 33 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||||
Nanos Research | 30 December | 35 | 35 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 0 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 30 December | 32 | 33 | 18 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,000 | Telephone | 1 | ||
Decima Research | 30 December | 32 | 30 | 18 | 14 | |||||||
Nanos Research | 29 December | 35 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 1 | ||
Nanos Research | 28 December | 38 | 32 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 6 | ||
Nanos Research | 23 December | 38 | 31 | 15 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,200 (1/3) | Telephone (rolling) | 7 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 22 December | 33 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,000 | Telephone | 1 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 22 December | 36 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 22 December | 39 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Environics | 21 December | HTML | 35 | 30 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ± 3.1 | 1,010 | 5 | ||
Strategic Counsel | 21 December | 33 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 21 December | 36 | 28 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 21 December | 37 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 20 December | 34 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 20 December | 37 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 19 December | 33 | 29 | 17 | 15 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 19 December | 37 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 18 December | 34 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 19 December | HTML | 37 | 34 | 17 | 10 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 18 December | 38 | 29 | 16 | 12 | 4 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 17 December | 38 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 16 December | 39 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 15 December | 34 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 15 December | 39 | 33 | 12 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 14 December | 34 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 14 December | 39 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 13 December | 35 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 13 December | 34 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 13 December | 38 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 12 December | 33 | 31 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||||
Nanos Research | 12 December | 38 | 30 | 13 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 11 December | 36 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 11 December | HTML | 38 | 30 | 15 | 12 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 11 December | 34 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 11 December | 39 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 10 December | 35 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 10 December | 39 | 32 | 14 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Decima Research | 9 December | 36 | 27 | 20 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 9 December | 39 | 30 | 15 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 8 December | 36 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 8 December | 41 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 8 December | 34 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 7 December | 39 | 27 | 16 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 7 December | 36 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 7 December | 40 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 6 December | 35 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 6 December | 40 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 4 | ||||||
Decima Research | 5 December | 34 | 26 | 20 | 14 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 5 December | 35 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 5 December | 38 | 30 | 16 | 12 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 4 December | 35 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 6 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 4 December | 37 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 3 December | HTML | 34 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |||||
Nanos Research | 3 December | 38 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Nanos Research | 2 December | 36 | 31 | 14 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 1 December | 33 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 1 December | HTML | 35 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |||||
Nanos Research | 1 December | 37 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
EKOS | 1 December | 34.1 | 27.4 | 18.4 | 14.0 | 6.0 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 30 November | 35 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 28 November | HTML | 31 | 31 | 18 | 15 | 5 | |||||
Decima Research | 28 November | 36 | 28 | 19 | 12 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 27 November | 35 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 27 November | HTML | 36 | 31 | 16 | 14 | — | |||||
Environics | 25 November | 35 | 30 | 20 | 14 | 1 | ||||||
EKOS | 24 November | 38.7 | 29.4 | 16.9 | 10.6 | 3.0 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 24 November | HTML | 34 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 5 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 15 November | 36 | 27 | 16 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Decima Research | 14 November | 33 | 26 | 22 | 13 | — | ||||||
Pollara | 13 November | 36 | 28 | 20 | — | |||||||
Nanos Research | 13 November | 34 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 10 November | 34 | 28 | 19 | 14 | 4 | ||||||
EKOS | 9 November | 33.0 | 27.9 | 20.9 | 13.1 | 4.9 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 8 November | 34 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 7 | ||||||
Decima Research | 7 November | 33 | 30 | 20 | 14 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 6 November | 35 | 28 | 16 | 13 | 8 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 3 November | 28 | 31 | 20 | 13 | 7 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 2 November | 31 | 30 | 19 | 13 | |||||||
Nanos Research | 27 October | 40 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 27 October | 38 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 5 | ||||||
Pollara | 17 October | 38 | 30 | 17 | — | — | ||||||
Decima Research | 17 October | 35 | 29 | 17 | 13 | — | ||||||
Environics | 16 October | 38 | 27 | 20 | 10 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 13 October | 38 | 25 | 15 | 14 | — | ||||||
Pollara | 2 October | 36 | 30 | 19 | 11 | — | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 29 September | 37 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 4 | ||||||
Decima Research | 26 September | 36 | 29 | 17 | 13 | — | ||||||
Praxicus | 23 September | 33 | 29 | 20 | — | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 13 September | 35 | 28 | 17 | 13 | 7 | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 11 September | 40 | 24 | 15 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 22 August | 36 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 15 August | 36 | 28 | 17 | — | — | ||||||
Nanos Research | 8 August | 39 | 25 | 19 | 13 | — | ||||||
Environics | 28 July | HTML | 34 | 31 | 20 | 11 | — | |||||
Decima Research | 25 July | 39 | 24 | 19 | 14 | — | ||||||
Pollara | 18 July | 38 | 27 | 15 | 13 | — | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 16 July | 35 | 26 | 19 | 13 | 7 | ||||||
Pollara | 28 June | 36 | 29 | 18 | 11 | — | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 28 June | 35 | 27 | 18 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
Decima Research | 20 June | 37 | 25 | 20 | 13 | — | ||||||
Ipsos-Reid | 20 June | 34 | 29 | 16 | 12 | 6 | ||||||
Strategic Counsel | 11 June | 34 | 26 | 19 | 13 | 9 | ||||||
Pollara | 6 June | 38 | 27 | 19 | 13 | — | ||||||
Decima Research | 5 June | 37 | 23 | 21 | 13 | — | ||||||
Decima Research | 22 May | 36 | 27 | 21 | 13 | — | ||||||
Leger Marketing | 22 May 2005 | 38 | 27 | 17 | 12 | 4 | ± 2.6% | 1,509 | 11 | |||
Ipsos-Reid | 20 May 2005 | 34 | 28 | 17 | — | 6 | 6 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 18 May 2005 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 3 | |||||
COMPAS | 17 May 2005 | 29 | 38 | 17 | 13 | — | 9 | |||||
EKOS | 17 May 2005 | 34.7 | 28.3 | 18.4 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | |||||
Environics | 17 May 2005 | 33 | 31 | 22 | 10 | — | 2 | |||||
Decima Research | 15 May 2005 | 32 | 31 | 19 | 14 | — | 1 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 14 May 2005 | 27 | 31 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 4 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 10 May 2005 | 27 | 31 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 4 | |||||
Decima Research | 8 May 2005 | 37 | 28 | 18 | 12 | — | 9 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 7 May 2005 | 32 | 31 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||||
Nanos Research | 5 May 2005 | 36.1 | 29.5 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | |||||
Pollara | 4 May 2005 | 31 | 36 | 17 | 15 | — | 5 | |||||
Decima Research | 2 May 2005 | 32 | 29 | 20 | 15 | — | 3 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 28 April 2005 | 30 | 33 | 17 | 12 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 3 | ||
EKOS | 28 April 2005 | 32.5 | 30.5 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 2 | |||||
GPC P.A. | 28 April 2005 | 33 | 30 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||||
Strategic Counsel | 28 April 2005 | 30 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 2 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 24 April 2005 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 3 | ||
Decima Research | 24 April 2005 | 27 | 32 | 21 | 15 | — | 5 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 21 April 2005 | 30 | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 5 | ||
Pollara | 21 April 2005 | 31 | 35 | 18 | 12 | — | 4 | |||||
Nanos Research | 18 April 2005 | 31.6 | 37.9 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 6.3 | |||||
Decima Research | 17 April 2005 | 28 | 35 | 18 | 14 | — | 7 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 14 April 2005 | 27 | 36 | 15 | 10 | 7 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 9 | ||
COMPAS | 14 April 2005 | 30 | 34 | 18 | 15 | 1 | 4 | |||||
Environics | 14 April 2005 | 27 | 33 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 6 | |||||
Environics | 12 April 2005 | 36 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 6 | |||||
Leger Marketing | 11 April 2005 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 13 | — | ± 2.5% | 1,504 | Telephone | 3 | ||
Ipsos-Reid | 10 April 2005 | 27 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 7 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 3 | ||
Decima Research | 10 April 2005 | 31 | 32 | 19 | 14 | — | 1 | |||||
EKOS | 9 April 2005 | 25.0 | 36.2 | 20.5 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 11.2 | |||||
Ipsos-Reid | 7 April 2005 | 34 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 7 | ±3.1% | 1000 | Telephone | 4 | ||
Last election | 28 June 2004 | HTML | 36.7 | 29.6 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 7.1 | ||||
NB: The margin of error in these surveys is typically between 2.5 and 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. See the links for actual error values associated with particular surveys. Because these figures are national percentages, they may not reflect the expected number of seats won by each party. Indeed, the sample size in many polls is not sufficient to give a statistically accurate prediction in individual ridings, and hence the expected number of seats.
All polling companies rely on cooperation from individuals contacted over the phone. The major companies claim a typical response rate is between 20 and 35 percent. [1]
Several websites, polling firms and notable Canadians devised various method of projecting the final election result. Included below are those cited in Andrew Coyne's blog. [2]
Projector | Conservative | Liberal | NDP | BQ | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Results HTML | 124 | 103 | 29 | 51 | 1 |
ElectionPrediction.org | 118 | 104 | 29 | 56 | 1 |
democraticSPACE.com | 128 | 94 | 29 | 56 | 1 |
UBC Election Stock market | 127 | 93 | 33 | 54 | 1 |
jord.ca | 135 | 72 | 38 | 62 | 1 |
Loblaw Election Pool | 136 | 89 | 26 | 57 | 0 |
Laurier University | 140 | 78 | 33 | 56 | 1 |
Andrew Coyne | 140 | 81 | 31 | 54 | 2 |
TrendLines Federal & Provincial Riding Projections | 140 | 75 | 35 | 57 | 1 |
ElectionPolls | 141 | 79 | 30 | 58 | 1 |
PinnacleSports.com | 146 | 74 | 31 | 57 | 0 |
Ipsos-Reid | 148–152 | 62–66 | 34–38 | 56–60 | - |
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By-elections to the 38th Canadian Parliament were held to fill vacancies in the House of Commons of Canada between the 2004 federal election and the 2006 federal election. The Liberal Party of Canada led a minority government for the entirety of the 38th Canadian Parliament.
The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Tories won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.
The 2019 Canadian federal election was held on October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. The Liberal Party of Canada, having previously held a majority of the seats in the House, was returned with a minority of the seats, while the Conservative Party of Canada gained fewer seats than expected and the Bloc Québécois saw its standing revived in Quebec.