Opinion polling for the 2016 Croatian parliamentary election

Last updated

Opinion polling for the 2016 Croatian parliamentary election started immediately after the 2015 general election. Monthly party ratings are conducted by Ipsos Puls and Promocija Plus.

Contents

Exit polls

DatePolling Organisation/Client People's Coalition HDZ Coalition Most Živi zid IDS BM 365
NS-R
HDSSB
HKS
Pametno
Za grad
11 September 2016 Ipsos puls 57571273211

Coalition standings

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date of publication, as opposed to the date the survey's fieldwork was done, which can be seen in the second table. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The client can be seen in the second table.

DatePolling Firm People's Coalition HDZ Most Živi zid MB 365
NS-R
ORaH, HL, NH-PS IDS OthersUndecidedLead
11 Sep General Election Results 33.236.39.96.24.0-2.311.0-3.1
7 Sep CRO Demoskop 34.527.28.86.03.11.71.65.611.57.3
4 Aug CRO Demoskop 34.426.410.46.42.11.71.45.711.58.0
25 July: HDZ announced it would participate in the elections without national coalition
DatePolling Firm People's Coalition Patriotic Coalition Most Živi zid MB 365 ORaH IDS OthersUndecidedLead
25 Jul Ipsos Puls 34.229.611.46.84.10.61.75.66.04.6
5 Jul CRO Demoskop 36.125.39.85.32.00.71.27.112.510.8
28 Jun Ipsos Puls 32.223.112.17.72.3-1.410.111.19.1
22 May - 9 Jun Promocija plus [1] 33.626.97.18.22.60.91.67.012.16.7
4 Jun CRO Demoskop 34.728.56.47.42.10.61.06.312.86.2
25 May Ipsos Puls 31.631.27.97.84.3-1.46.77.60.4
6 May CRO Demoskop 33.634.75.77.31.60.81.13.711.51.1
23 Apr Ipsos Puls 32.133.36.96.84.61.01.66.67.21.2
5 Apr CRO Demoskop 31.431.96.05.72.01.11.54.915.70.5
26 Mar Ipsos Puls 31.534.97.66.33.71.11.65.97.33.4
5 Mar CRO Demoskop 30.931.48.94.42.31.61.85.613.10.5
25 Feb Ipsos Puls 28.933.210.26.02.81.52.06.88.64.3
5 Feb CRO Demoskop 32.332.79.13.21.41.61.66.011.90.4
25 Jan Ipsos Puls 29.132.514.54.04.2-2.07.16.73.4
8 Jan CRO Demoskop 32.131.211.73.22.01.41.25.112.10.9
2016
23 Dec Ipsos Puls 29.233.815.54.43.51.01.75.35.74.6
4 Dec CRO Demoskop 30.329.415.43.32.31.81.84.910.70.9
25 Nov Ipsos Puls 30.229.619.13.82.31.21.76.16.00.6
8 Nov General Election 33.333.313.54.23.31.71.88.9-Tie

Individual party standings

Date(s) conductedPolling organization/clientSample size SDP HDZ Most Živi zid MB 365 HNS HSS ORaH IDS OthersUndecidedLead
1-3 Aug Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 1.30029.626.010.55.91.72.92.10.91.17.711.63.6
1-18 Jul Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 97429.228.311.46.84.11.32.70.61.28.460.9
1-3 Jul Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130031.822.79.85.32.03.12.80.71.28.112.59.1
25-28 Jun Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 121930.921.512.17.72.31.31.5-1.410.211.19.4
1-3 Jun Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130030.526.36.47.42.13.12.80.61.06.312.84.2
1–21 May Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 97629.128.77.97.84.31.51.4-1.410.47.50.4
2–5 May Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130029.229.55.77.31.63.12.80.81.17.411.50.3
1-21 Apr Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 96428.629.06.96.84.61.81.41.01.611.17.21.2
1-4 Apr Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130029.029.86.35.71.42.32.71.31.27.512.80.8
1-21 Mar Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 96928.030.27.66.33.71.91.71.11.610.67.32.2
1-3 Mar Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130028.229.38.64.01.42.31.81.01.38.313.81.1
1-21 Feb Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 97326.228.910.26.02.81.51.71.52.010.68.62.7
1-3 Feb Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130028.830.010.03.11.42.41.41.31.36.813.51.2
1-21 Jan Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 97526.628.514.54.04.21.51.9-2.016.86.71.9
4-6 Jan Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130029.629.312.63.02.02.21.81.61.26.610.10.3
2016
1-21 Dec Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 97627.229.515.54.43.51.01.71.01.78.85.72.3
30 Nov-2 Dec Promocija Plus/CRO Demoskop 130028.227.615.63.22.42.62.11.01.55.69.20.6
8-20 Nov Ipsos Puls/Dnevnik Nova TV 96629.028.219.13.82.31.21.41.21.76.16.00.8

Seats projections

DatePolling Firm SDP
HNS
HSU
HSS
HDZ
HSLS
HDS
Hrast
Most Živi zid
et al.
BM 365
NS-R
et al.
IDS
PGS
RI
HDSSB
HKS
Pametno
Za grad
11 Sep General Election 54611382310
8 Sep 2x1 komunikacije 59551362320
7 Sep Ipsos Puls 55531287311
4 Sep Promocija Plus 62551233320
2 Sep Hendal 61561360310
9 Jun Promocija Plus 624812113220
8 Nov 2015 General Election 5659191232-

Polls of electoral districts

Coalition standings

The poll in the table below was conducted by Hendal for HRT from 16 to 26 August 2016:

District SDP
HNS
HSU
HSS
HDZ
HSLS
HDS
Hrast
Most Živi zid
et al.
BM 365
NS-R
et al.
IDS
PGS
RI
HDSSB
HKS
Pametno
Za grad
HL NLSP
ORaH
et al.
UndecidedLead
I. district [2] 34.722.89.65.23.03.016.511.9
II. district [3] 31.324.78.04.34.122.16.6
III. district [4] 44.116.06.54.53.20.821.728.1
IV. district [2] 24.233.07.13.95.420.48.8
V. district [5] 22.436.84.73.72.93.722.114.4
VI. district [6] 27.227.44.77.83.924.30.2
VII. district [6] 32.226.88.34.62.42.319.25.4
VIII. district [7] 32.09.64.76.414.822.622.4
IX. district [7] 19.441.07.84.31.00.621.321.6
X. district [8] 21.331.716.12.72.321.310.4

The poll in the table below was conducted by Promocija plus for RTL and Jutarnji List [9] in August and September 2016: [10]

(*) It is commonly assumed on the basis of results from previous elections and past experience that HDZ will win a majority (if not all) of the 3 seats allocated to the XI electoral district made up of Croatian citizens living abroad. Should this be the case HDZ would have a total of 58 seats, with 56 being considered safe seats and raising its possible seat range to 56-63.

(**) The 11 remaining seats are allocated in the XI (3) and XII (8) electoral districts. The XI electoral districts encompasses all Croatian citizens living abroad. The XII electoral district encompasses members of 22 recognized national minorities who elected representatives in a single district with the votes being subsequently allocated to candidates running for every minority's individual seat. The Serb minority elects 3 members, while 1 seat each is allocated to the Italian, Hungarian, Czech/Slovak, Albanian/Bosniak/Macedonian/Montenegrin/Slovene and Austrian/Bulgarian/German/Jewish/Polish/Roma/Romanian/Rusyn/Russian/Turkish /Ukrainian/Vlach minorities.

District SDP
HNS
HSU
HSS
HDZ
HSLS
HDS
Hrast
Most Živi zid
et al.
IDS
PGS
RI
BM 365
NS-R
et al.
NLSP
ORaH
et al.
HSP AS
HKDU
et al.
HDSSB
HKS
Pametno
Za grad
HSP
HČSP
et al.
HL ID OthersUndecidedLead
I. district38.7239.75.73.70.51.82.70.80.51.810.915.7
II. district33.628.77.24.86.80.91.11.30.90.72.211.64.9
III. district44.220.86.34.65.00.62.40.70.21.11.312.923.4
IV. district29.131.76.54.11.61.610.50.71.10.71.011.42.6
V. district27.239.57.03.91.90.51.13.70.70.51.112.812.3
VI. district34.228.86.34.55.90.52.00.91.80.51.812.85.4
VII. district34.428.96.86.21.34.40.90.91.10.51.812.85.5
VIII. district35.416.45.44.816.81.01.21.01.41.01.21.413.219
IX. district24.243.36.83.91.33.40.70.90.90.42.012.319.1
X. district26.236.614.71.90.90.71.03.10.90.51.212.210.4
Total seats6255*123330020000011**7
Safe seats5753*1123300100000-4
Marginal seats (gain)35160100000000-
Marginal seats (loss)52110000100000-
Seat range57-6553-6011-132-933-4001-300000-

Individual party standings

The poll in the table below was conducted by Promocija plus for RTL in May and June 2016:

DistrictDate(s) conductedPolling Firm SDP HDZ Most Živi zid MB 365 HNS HSS HSLS IDS HDSSB OthersUndecidedLead
I.Unspecified (published 9 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 35.920.38.77.2-1.9-1.6--10.514.115.6
II.Unspecified (published 8 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 28.821.16.68.04.42.64.81.0--6.416.17.7
III.Unspecified (published 24 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 32.517.25.18.0-9.9-----12.015.3
IV.Unspecified (published 22 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 27.730.45.69.3-3.91.61.0-9.72.9-2.7
V.Unspecified (published 26 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 24.633.54.95.6-----5.1-11.08.9
VI.Unspecified (published 7 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 31.124.17.49.24.92.0----9.911.57.0
VII.Unspecified (published 6 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 31.524.56.112.3-1.6----15.28.97.0
VIII.Unspecified (published 29 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 33.612.95.07.7----16.3-9.415.417.3
IX.Unspecified (published 31 May) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 25.236.56.37.4------12.012.611.3
X.Unspecified (published 2 Jun) Promocija plus/RTL and Jutarnji List 22.528.315.87.9------14.710.85.8

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