The ruling centre-right HDZ won a plurality of seats for the fourth straight election obtaining a victory over the centre-left Rivers of Justice. The right-wing populist Homeland Movement finished third, with the left-wing and green We can! in fourth place. The HDZ subsequently formed a right-wing coalition with the Homeland Movement and returned HDZ leader Andrej Plenković as Prime Minister for a third term.[1]
Background
The pre-election period was marked by speculation about the possible date of the election, potential coalitions and unification of the opposition, as well as accusations of corruption and nepotism in the government led by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and his changes in ministers.
In 2023, it was reported that the HDZ was preparing to hold elections in April 2024, two months before the elections for members of the European Parliament. From conversations with several high-ranking HDZ members, Jutarnji list reported that that Andrej Plenković would collect advantages with which he will go before the voters and ask for another prime ministerial mandate in the next year, so that the elections can be held before the Easter holidays in 2024.[5]
On 28 February 2024, Jutarnji list reported that HDZ planned to hold the General Assembly on 17 March 2024 in the Vatroslav Lisinski Concert Hall in Zagreb, three months before the deadline. Information subsequently began to circulate that the Parliament could be dissolved on 22 March, the last day of the 21st session of the Croatian Parliament, and the dissolution could be voted on.[6] On 8 March, Plenković confirmed the dissolution of parliament on 14 March.[7]
On 14 March 2024, the Parliament unanimously voted to dissolve itself, without specifying a date for the election.[8] The following day, president Zoran Milanović announced that elections will be held on 17 April.[9][10] For the first time, the election will be held on a Wednesday,[11] while the 2000 Croatian parliamentary election was held on a Monday.[12]
On 28 July 2023, a coalition was agreed between two liberal regional parties, the Istrian Democratic Assembly and the Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar, with a main goal to represent Istria and Kvarner in VII and VIII electoral districts. The coalition will also contest the 2024 European Parliament elections.[19][20] Two more liberal parties, Focus and the People's Party – Reformists announced their cooperation on 10 November 2023. The leader of the Reformists Radimir Čačić said that with a high level of certainty they expect a large expansion of this cooperation with parties close to them, who believe that Croatia is institutionally and as a society trapped by the HDZ, and that this should be stopped and space should be opened for a different, much more modern, more liberal Croatia.[21] Finally two groups made one single alliance on 9 December 2023. Four party leaders: Davor Nađi (Focus), Dalibor Paus (IDS), Radimir Čačić (NS-R) and Darijo Vasilić (PGS) pointed out that they are running against the HDZ and that after the elections they will not participate in the government with the HDZ, although Čačić did not rule out the possibility of supporting a minority government.[22] On 5 March 2024, the coalition was formally constituted under the name "For Better Croatia".[23] The coalition later collapsed after Focus decided to ally with the Republic party of Damir Vanđelić, while the Reformists still partnered with IDS and PGS in VII. and VIII constituencies and with the Rivers of Justice coalition in other constutuencues.[24][25]
Social Democratic Party dissidents led by Davorko Vidović as leader of Social Democrats made an agreement with the Croatian Peasant Party on 7 October 2023, creating the "Our Croatia" (Croatian: Naša Hrvatska) coalition.[26] Ten days later Croatian Labourists – Labour Party joined coalition emphasizing this is just continued cooperation and trust.[27] On 2 March 2024, the Democrats joined the coalition, claiming that they recognized the great potential for positive change as well as the courage and ability to gather broadly on the left and center.[28] HSS left the coalition on 5 March 2024 and joined the Rivers of Justice on 22 March 2024.[23][29] On 27 March 2024 "Our Croatia" announced a deal with the IDS, PGS and the NPS in III, VII and VIII electoral districts.[30]
The most anticipated coalition of the 2024 election was an alliance of the main opposition party Social Democratic Party of Croatia and left wing contender We can! (Možemo!). Such an idea was seen as probable because of similar policies of the parties. We can! announced on 27 June 2023 that it would run separately, leaving the possibility after the election to form a government with parties of the center to the left, including the SDP.[31] On 1 March 2024, Sandra Benčić (We can!) announced the start of negotiations with the SDP on a "dotted coalition", which means a coalition in constituencies where they do not have enough support individually. In that case, the coalition would be implemented in IV., V., VII. and IX. electoral unit, while in other units the parties would go separately.[32] On 22 March 2024 Možemo and SDP announced that an agreement was not reached, which means that they will go separately in all constituencies.[33]
On 17 February 2024, members of the left-liberal opposition held a protest under the name "Enough! Let's Go to the Elections!" (Croatian: Dosta je! Odmah na izbore!). The protest was organized by SDP, We can!, Centre, IDS, HSS and RF, Focus, SD, NS-Reformists, GLAS, and SsIP. The reason for the protest was the appointment of Judge Ivan Turudić as the Attorney General. The day before, the same parties submitted a request for the dissolution of parliament and the holding of early elections. Most and HS joined them with signatures even if they did not participate in the protests.[34][35] The next protest was held on 23 March 2024 simultaneously in Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Osijek and Varaždin.[36]
On 5 March 2024, a large left-liberal future coalition named For a Better Croatia was announced after an inter-party meeting. The coalition will be led by the SDP with Peđa Grbin as prime ministerial candidate and will include Focus, NS R, PGS, IDS, Centre, HSS, Glas, RF, and SsIP.[23] On 6 March, IDS and PGS claimed there will be no coalition in VIII electoral district with other parties than Focus and NS-R, per previous agreements.[37] On 17 March, Grbin announced that the Workers' Front would not be part of the coalition, while the Istrian Democratic Assembly, Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar and Fokus left the coalition on 19 March, citing Milanović's candidacy, which is not in accordance with the law, as the reason.[38][39][40] After the collapse of the coalition, the remaining parties reached an agreement on going to the elections under the Rivers of Justice coalition.[29]
Following the creation of the opposition coalition, HDZ announced that it would cooperate with HSLS, HDS, HNS, and HSU in some electoral districts.[41][42] Hours after announcing the election date on 15 March, President Zoran Milanović announced at a press conference that he would be the SDP's candidate for prime minister in the elections,[43] during which he would run against incumbent prime minister Andrej Plenković in electoral district I.[44] On 18 March, the Constitutional Court ruled that Milanović may not be a candidate nor could he actively participate in support of the SDP during the election campaign,[45] unless he resigns from the presidency of Croatia. In response, Milanović described the ruling as "done in a gangster way".[46] Ahead of the election, researchers from the Faculty of Political Science of University of Zagreb have developed an online electoral compass test in cooperation with Kieskompas, which positions the main political parties and the user, based on a set of questions, on the political spectrum.[47]
A voter can give their "preference vote" to a single candidate on the list, but only candidates who have received at least 10% of the party's votes take precedence over the other candidates on the list.[49]
8 seats are elected from an electoral district for national minorities (12th Electoral District): 3 seats for Serbian, 1 seat for Italian, 1 seat for Hungarian, 1 seat for Czech and Slovak, 1 seat for Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovenian, and 1 seat for Austrian, Bulgarian, German, Jewish, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Rusyn, Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and Vlach national minority
Voters with the right to vote in the 12th Electoral District can choose to either vote for a candidate list on the ballot in the district they belong to according to their place of residence (one of the 10 geographical districts) or for a candidate of their minority in the 12th Electoral District.[50]
On 28 October 2022, the Constitutional Court issued a warning that it could declare the next elections unconstitutional unless the electoral law was changed, due to excessive differences in the number of voters for each constituency, leading to significant variations in vote weight.[51] On 7 February 2023, the Constitutional Court repealed the electoral law because the difference in vote weight between different electoral districts was too large to comply with the constitutional provision that each vote must be of equal weight.[52] Parliament passed a new electoral law on 20 October 2023, which came into effect on 3 November, requiring the next elections to be held with reorganized electoral districts.[53]
Submission of candidate lists
Lists for the election of representatives may be proposed independently by one political party or by two or more political parties (coalition list) which are registered in the Republic of Croatia on the day the Decision to call the elections is announced, or by voters. Voters shall propose independent candidate lists on the basis of validly collected 500 signatures of residents of the Electoral District the list is running in.[54]
Parliamentary parties
The table below lists political parties represented in the 10th Sabor prior to the election.
On 30 March 2024, the State Electoral Commission of the Republic of Croatia (DIP) made decisions on validly submitted lists in I. – XI. electoral district and validly proposed candidates in XII. electoral district. All decisions on validly submitted lists and validly proposed candidates and summary lists were published on the same day at 5:00p.m. on the website of the DIP.[56] The table below is a list of the main parties and electoral coalitions which are contesting the election.
It is required by the election law that each list running in the election contains at least 40% of both men and women, to ensure equality. For the lists that do not adhere to this rule, the State Electoral Commission (DIP) will report them to The Ombudsperson for Gender Equality and the State's Attorney Office of the Republic of Croatia (DORH) when the parties and candidates proposing those lists can expect a fine of up to 33 000 euros.[57][58]
Thirty-two out of 165 lists did not respect the rule and will be reported. A number of the main parties respected the rule and have at least six women and men on all their lists, among them Focus/Republic (11 lists), MOST/HS (11), RF (10), the Rivers of Justice coalition (10) and the Our Croatia coalition (eight). On the other hand, the biggest offenders are HDZ, DP/PiP coalition and MP Karolina Vidović Krišto's party OiP. For both HDZ and OiP, the fine could be high as much as 60 000 euros all together. When asked about this, Andrej Plenković responded: "There are many more women than 30, but the circumstances are such that we have a lot of candidates, we try to balance it ... ."[59][60]
While We Can! holds the record for the most women holding the first place on their lists (six constituencies), HDZ and DP/PiP have none.[61][62]
Campaign
The official political campaign started on 30 March with the DIP publishing all of the valid lists. It will last until the end of 15 April as the election silence is enforced. It starts at midnight and lasts until 7:00 pm on the election day when the polling stations close and exit polls are published.[63][64]
On 12 January 2024, President Zoran Milanović publicly outed HDZ minister Damir Habijan as gay.[71] It was the first case of outing a political opponent as part of LGBT community without their approval in the political history of the country. The situation caused a wave of reactions, but LGBT rights organizations did not react and a rift was created between the activists of the community.[72][73] In April, Zagreb Pride released a controversial list of candidates running who are members of the community. The list of 11 candidates, mostly members of We Can!, included three incumbent HDZ officials who either hadn't publicly announced their orientation before or didn't give permission to be on the list, as well as two SDP candidates. Politicians like Peđa Grbin (SDP) and Damir Vanđelić (Republic) condemned the list.[74][75]
During the campaign, Zoran Milanović voiced his plan to form a broad "national salvation" coalition government of all parties except the currently governing HDZ. He also urged voters to vote for anyone except HDZ.[76][77]The Bridge stated that they will form a government with any party which accepts their program and PM candidate Nikola Grmoja. Unlike SDP, We Can! strongly rejected participating in a government with the Most or DP, saying they are the only barrier to the right in government. In case of a gridlock in government formation after the election, they are ready to provide confidence and supply to an SDP minority government from Sabor, with the condition that the right does the same and doesn't enter the new cabinet.[78][79]Ivan Penava stated that We Can! and SDSS are unacceptable as partners for the Homeland Movement, but not SDP.[80]
Unlike in 2016[120] and 2020,[121] the leaders of two biggest parties, HDZ and SDP, did not attend a single debate. Peđa Grbin challenged Andrej Plenković to one, but Plenković refused to debate Grbin, as the PM candidate of Rivers of Justice is Zoran Milanović. The Prime Minister refused to debate other political opponents, saying that he doesn't have anyone to debate with. DP leader Ivan Penava and PM candidates Nikola Grmoja (Most) and Sandra Benčić (Možemo!) also challenged Plenković to a debate. Grbin, Grmoja and Benčić all suggested Plenković is afraid and/or called him a coward.[122][123][124][125][126] To the calls to debate them, Plenković responded by saying: "This is a political match in which Grbin capitulated before the formal campaign, Milanović violates the Constitution, and a political trifle, like Most, is not someone we would confront (in a debate)." Plenković, Grbin and Penava all skipped the big HRT debate, while Grmoja and Benčić attended.[127]
The election produced a fourth consecutive victory for the governing HDZ; however, the opposition parties denied it a one-party majority in the Sabor. The official results showed that HDZ's coalition won 61 seats, almost 20 seats more than the second placed Rivers of Justice coalition whose 42 candidates were elected.[129] Despite HDZ's plurality of votes, in order to form a governing majority, they still required to rely on forming a coalition, with the most likely partners the third-placed far-right party, the Homeland Movement, which won 14 seats.[130] The Homeland Movement therefore has the kingmaker position,[130] although it declined to say whether they would join a left-leaning or right-leaning bloc and setting the condition that they will not enter into a coalition with SDSS and Možemo.[131]
Among the other opposition parties, conservative The Bridge along with partners Croatian Sovereignists won 11 seats, and the green-left We Can! who won 10, both declared after the vote they intended to start talks with potential allies aimed at putting together some form of majority administration.[132] The latter party also encouraged all smaller parties regardless of political leanings to come to an agreement in order to oust HDZ from power. The Workers' Front failed to achieve the 5% electoral threshold, leaving the party without a representative in the Sabor.[133]
Andrej Plenković claimed victory on behalf of the HDZ and said that it would begin the process of forming a new parliamentary majority to form the HDZ's third government on 18 April 2024. He also congratulated other contesting parties.[129]SDP leader Peđa Grbin said that they had hoped for a better result but said that they would also start talks on the formation of a new government on 18 April.[135] During negotiation talks, the DP was labeled the kingmaker of the election.[136][137]
On 19 April, the Constitutional Court ruled that President Zoran Milanović was ineligible to become prime minister in the event that the SDP would be able to form a government, citing his statements and behavior during the electoral campaign. According to the ruling, he would be barred from being given the mandate to form a new government even if he previously resigned as President.[138] Three of the Constitutional Court judges released a dissenting opinion pointing out there are no specific arguments or regulations to justify the decision. They cited "unconstitutional threats" of the Court and criticized the potential undermining of the will of the people.[139] Milanović gave a statement in front of a photo showing "HDZ's man" Miroslav Šeparović, the Court's President, hanging out together with HDZ ministers Oleg Butković and Branko Bačić, accusing the Court of preparing a coup d'état.[140][141]
As one of the scenarios for the formation of a new government, Grbin presented the idea of an anti-corruption government. This would imply the constitution of a Parliament in which, at least temporarily, the majority will be all opposition parties (Možemo!, Rivers of Justice, IDS, Fokus, Most, and DP). Such a parliamentary majority could pass several important laws, including the electoral one, as well as annul the appointment of State Attorney Ivan Turudić. After that, in the event that the parties could not agree on the formation of a joint government, new elections could be held.[142]
On 21 April, elections were repeated in two polling stations. The first was in Sračinec, where an excess of ballots was found in the ballot boxes. The irregularity referred to the list of candidates in the XII electoral unit where representatives of the Albanian, Bosniak, Montenegrin, Macedonian and Slovenian national minorities were elected. The second polling station was in Markušica in the village of Ostrovo, where it was discovered that by mistake 83 persons of Serbian nationality voted twice, namely for the V electoral unit and for the candidates of the XII electoral unit of the Serbian national minority.[143]
On 27 April, the DP held negotiation talks with both the HDZ and SDP, with Prime Minister Andrej Plenković announcing that the HDZ would form a formal coalition with the DP some time in "the coming days."[144]
On 29 April, the State Electoral Commission published the final results, setting a deadline to 19 May for holding the first session of the Sabor with president Milanović deciding the exact date.[145]
On 5 May, an agreement was reached on the HDZ and DP government, with Plenković as prime minister. DP will receive three ministries, demography, agriculture, and energy, which will be separated from the Ministry of Economy.[146] Members of the Serb community were excluded from the new cabinet due to opposition from the DP.[147] On 10 May Plenković submitted 78 signatures of representatives at a meeting with president Milanović at the Presidential Palace, after which Milanović gave him a mandate to form the government. The signatures were given by 61 representatives of the HDZ coalition, 12 representatives of the DP, four representatives of minorities and Vesna Vučemilović, who was subsequently expelled from the Croatian Sovereignists.[148] The Sabor issued its approval of the new government in a 79-61 vote on 17 May.[149]
↑ The party neither has a leader in general (Collective leadership) nor did it announce a PM candidate; Katarina Peović is the party's only MP and de facto spokesperson
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↑ "Fokus napustio koaliciju sa SDP-om"[Fokus left the coalition with SDP]. tportal.hr (in Croatian). 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 19 March 2024. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
↑ "Milanović: Habijan je gej"[Milanović: Habijan is gay]. index.hr (in Croatian). Index. 12 January 2024. Archived from the original on 15 February 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
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