Opinion polling for the 2024 Salvadoran general election

The following tables list the results of opinion polls for the presidential, legislative, and municipal elections conducted since October 2022 in reverse chronological order for the 2024 Salvadoran presidential and legislative elections. The party with the highest percentage is listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the party with the second highest percentage is listed in bold. The lead column shows the percentage between the parties with the first and second highest percentages. For legislative and municipal election polls, projected seat counts, if available, are listed below the percentage.

Presidential election

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

After 20 July 2023

Presidential election polls
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Other	None	Unsure	Lead	Ref.
			Bukele (NI)	Sánchez (ARENA)	Flores (FMLN)	Parada (NT)	Renderos (FS)	Murillo (FPS)	Cardoza (PAIS)
2024 election	4 Feb 2024	N/A	84.65	5.57	6.40	2.04	0.74	0.60	–	–	–	–	78.25	[1]
Cid-Gallup (exit poll)	4 Feb 2024	–	87.0	4.0	7.0	1.6	0.6	0.5	–	–	–	–	80.0	[2]
End of the presidential campaigning period on 31 January 2024
Cid-Gallup	Jan 2024	2,400	79.0	4.0	4.0	–	–	–	–	1.0	–	12.0	74.0	[3]
Iudop-UCA	3–14 Jan 2024	2,892	81.9	3.4	4.2	2.5	1.1	1.0	–	–	3.0	3.0	77.7	[4]
Iudop-UCA	3–14 Jan 2024	1,264	68.7	1.3	2.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	–	–	7.8	19.3	66.4	[4]
CEC-UFG	3–8 Jan 2024	1,904	70.9	2.7	2.9	1.1	0.6	0.6	–	–	6.1	15.0	68.0	[5]
Fundaungo	11 Nov–14 Dec 2023	1,201	56.0	2.1	3.3	0.9	–	–	–	1.7	0.6	22.3	52.7	[6]
Iudop-UCA	11–29 Nov 2023	1,512	61.7	1.5	2.6	0.3	–	0.2	0.1	1.7	9.4	14.0	59.1	[7]
Cid-Gallup	6–13 Nov 2023	1,200	79.0	3.0	2.0	–	–	–	–	2.0	–	14.0	76.0	[8]
Beginning of the presidential campaigning period on 3 October 2023
OPINES	18 Sept 2023	1,320	92.0	2.0	1.0	0.3	–	–	–	–	2.0	2.7	90.0	[9]
CEC-UFG	15–21 Aug 2023	1,920	68.4	4.3	2.8	2.0	1.5	–	–	–	9.2	11.8	64.1	[10]

Before 20 July 2023

Presidential election polls
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size					PCN				Other	None	Unsure	Lead	Ref.
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023
Fundaungo	2 May–9 Jun 2023	2,314	53.7	1.9	2.5	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.3	–	38.8	51.2	[11]
CEC-UFG	27 May–1 Jun 2023	1,334	70.3	3.3	1.2	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	23.4	67.0	[12]
La Prensa Gráfica	15–24 Feb 2023	1,520	54.0	1.5	0.7	0.5	–	–	–	0.8	–	–	42.5	52.5	[13]
La Prensa Gráfica	16–21 Nov 2022	1,520	49.3	2.6	–	1.4	–	–	–	1.1	8.6	9.8	27.2	46.7	[14]
CEC-UFG	27–31 Oct 2022	1,227	66.2	2.2	1.3	1.3	0.3	–	0.2	0.5	–	9.8	18.2	48.0	[15]
2019 election	7 Feb 2019	N/A	–	31.72	14.41	53.10	–	–	–	0.77	–	–	–	21.38	[16]

Legislative election

Local regression of polls conducted

Legislative election polls
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size					PCN						FPS			Other	None	Unsure	Lead	Ref.
Cid-Gallup	Jan 2024	2,400	60.0 56	5.0 2	2.0 1	4.0 1	– 0	– 1	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	2.0 0	–	27.0	55.0	[3]
Iudop-UCA	3–14 Jan 2024	534	67.6	4.7	3.6	2.6	–	0.4	0.9	0.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	19.9	62.9	[17]
Iudop-UCA	3–14 Jan 2024	428	58.6	2.1	3.0	5.6	1.9	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.2	–	–	–	0.5	–	–	26.2	53.0	[17]
CEC-UFG	3–8 Jan 2024	1,904	– 57	– 2	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 1	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	– 0	–	–	–	–	[5]
Beginning of the legislative campaigning period on 3 December 2023
Iudop-UCA	11–29 Nov 2023	866	81.2	3.6	5.5	3.9	0.6	0.7	1.5	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.3	–	–	0.1	75.7	[7]
CEC-UFG	15–21 Aug 2023	1,920	59.0 58	5.8 1	2.9 1	2.5 0	2.1 0	1.2 0	0.5 0	0.9 0	0.4 0	0.0 0	0.1 0	0.4 0	1.1 0	–	12.0	11.1	53.2	[18]
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023
Fundaungo	2 May–9 Jun 2023	2,314	45.0	2.7	2.9	3.1	0.3	0.1	0.3	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	1.6	9.1	25.9	42.1	[11]
CEC-UFG	27 May–1 Jun 2023	1,334	63.0	5.0	1.3	2.8	–	–	–	1.4	–	–	–	–	–	1.6	4.7	20.2	58.0	[19]
La Prensa Gráfica	15–24 Feb 2023	1,500	49.7	2.5	1.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	2.7	–	43.7	47.2	[20]
La Prensa Gráfica	16–21 Nov 2022	1,520	44.3	3.1	1.1	2.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1.7	9.7	33.9	41.2	[21]
CEC-UFG	27–31 Oct 2022	1,227	62.8	2.9	2.0	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.2	0.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	10.2	18.6	59.9	[15]
2021 election	28 Feb 2021	N/A	66.46 56	12.18 14	6.91 4	5.29 5	4.08 2	1.70 1	1.70 1	1.01 1	0.56 0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	54.28	[22]

Municipal election

Municipal election polls
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size					PCN						FPS			Other	None	Unsure	Lead	Ref.
Beginning of the municipal campaigning period on 5 February 2024
CEC-UFG	3–8 Jan 2024	1,904	54.7	5.8	2.8	3.3	–	3.0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	12.1	18.3	–	48.9	[5]
Iudop-UCA	11–29 Nov 2023	1,512	40.3	4.8	4.0	4.0	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.4	–	11.5	31.2	35.5	[7]
Fundaungo	1–5 Sept 2023	502	35.9	2.1	1.0	2.2	1.4	–	0.1	0.1	–	–	–	–	–	2.4	17.1	37.7	33.7	[23]
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023
Fundaungo	2 May–9 Jun 2023	2,314	40.4	3.5	3.7	4.9	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.4	–	–	–	–	–	0.3	–	45.5	35.5	[11]
CEC-UFG	27 May–1 Jun 2023	1,334	56.7	4.9	2.2	3.2	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.9	0.3	0.4	–	–	0.1	0.3	6.5	23.5	51.8	[19]
La Prensa Gráfica	15–24 Feb 2023	1,500	41.9	4.3	2.3	1.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	2.0	–	47.6	37.6	[20]
La Prensa Gráfica	16–21 Nov 2022	1,520	35.3	4.6	2.2	3.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	2.7	8.2	41.0	30.7	[21]
CEC-UFG	27–31 Oct 2022	1,227	50.0	3.4	2.2	2.5	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	10.5	29.1	46.6	[15]
2021 election	28 Feb 2021	N/A	50.78 152	19.01 35	11.16 30	10.86 27	4.93 14	1.73 3	0.45 0	0.39 1	0.69 0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	31.77	[24]

Polling on Bukele's re-election

See also: Opinion polling on the Nayib Bukele presidency § 2024 re-election polling

According to polling conducted CIESCA and TResearch shortly after Bukele's announcement of re-election campaign, a large majority of Salvadorans support Bukele's re-election bid. ^{[25] [26]} Additionally, many Salvadoran Americans strongly support Bukele's re-election. ^[27]

The following table lists the results of opinion polls regarding Bukele's re-election, with the option with the highest percentage listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the lead column shows the difference between the "would support" and the "would not support" options. The following graph visualizes local regression of the table's results.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Would support	Would not support	Undecided	Lead	Ref.
Iudop-UCA	11–29 Nov 2023	1,512	69.9	24.3	5.8	45.6	[28]
TResearch	Jun 2023	1,000	90.9	8.8	0.3	82.1	[29]
CEC-UFG	27 May–1 Jun 2023	1,334	75.6	12.5	11.9	63.1	[30]
CIESCA	May 2023	–	91.85	5.36	2.79	86.49	[31]
TResearch	May 2023	1,000	90.4	9.3	0.3	81.1	[29]
TResearch	Apr 2023	1,000	91.2	7.5	1.3	83.7	[29]
TResearch	Mar 2023	1,000	92.6	6.2	1.2	86.4	[29]
La Prensa Gráfica	15–24 Feb 2023	1,500	68.0	13.0	19.0	55.0	[32]
TResearch	14–16 Feb 2023	1,000	93.9	5.7	0.4	88.2	[29]
CEC-UFG	4–8 Feb 2023	1,263	62.2	19.0	18.8	43.2	[33]
TResearch	Jan 2023	1,000	92.7	5.9	1.4	86.8	[29]
TResearch	Dec 2022	1,000	93.7	4.8	1.5	88.9	[29]
La Prensa Gráfica	16–21 Nov 2022	1,520	64.6	17.9	17.5	46.7	[34]
TResearch	Nov 2022	1,000	94.1	4.5	1.4	89.6	[29]
CEC-UFG	27–31 Oct 2022	1,227	74.7	12.8	12.5	61.9	[35]
CEC-UFG	27–31 Oct 2022	1,227	77.2	11.0	11.8	66.2	[35]
TResearch	Oct 2022	1,000	94.8	3.9	1.3	90.9	[29]
TResearch	17–19 Sep 2022	1,000	94.3	4.4	1.4	89.9	[26]
CIESCA	18 Sep 2022	25,623	88.3	11.7	–	76.6	[25]
CEC-UFG	10–14 Sep 2022	1,231	58.9	23.1	15.0	35.8	[36]
CEC-UFG	26 May 2022	–	72.2	–	–	–	[37]

Intentions to vote

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Will vote	Will not vote	Undecided	Lead	Ref.
Fundaungo	1–5 Sept 2023	502	82.8	16.7	0.5	66.1	[23]
Fundaungo	2 May–9 Jun 2023	2,314	83.2	15.1	1.7	68.1	[11]
La Prensa Gráfica	Feb 2023	–	83.6	9.5	6.9	74.1	[38]
La Prensa Gráfica	Nov 2022	–	78.8	10.3	11.0	68.5	[38]

See also

• Opinion polling on the Nayib Bukele presidency

References

1. "En Vivo: Cierre de Escrutinio Final de la Elección de Presidente y Vicepresidente 2024" [Live: The Final Tally of the 2024 Election for President and Vice President Closes]. El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 9 February 2024.
2. America Elects [@AmericaElige] (4 February 2024). "El Salvador, CID Gallup exit poll: Presidential election Bukele (NI, Conservative): 87% Flores (FMLN, Left): 7% Sánchez (ARENA, conservative): 4% … Fieldwork: 4 February 2024 #ElSalvador #Elecciones2024 #EleccionesSV" (Tweet). Retrieved 4 February 2024– via Twitter.
3. Magaña, Yolanda (19 January 2024). "Cid-Gallup: 79% Votaría por Bukele y Nuevas Ideas ya Tiene Asegurados 52 Escaños" [Cid-Gallup: 79% Will Vote for Bukele and Nuevas Ideas now Has 52 Seats Assured]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 January 2024.
4. Magaña, Yolanda (18 January 2024). "Encuesta Iudop–UCA: 81.9% Votó por Nuevas Ideas en Simulación de Presidencial" [Iudop–UCA Poll: 81.9% Voted for Nuevas Ideas in Presidential Simulation]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 January 2024.
5. Magaña, Yolanda (16 January 2024). "Bukele con 70.9% de Intención de Voto y Nuevas Ideas con 57 Diputados: Encuesta UFG" [Bukele with 70.9% of the Intended Vote and Nuevas Ideas with 57 Deputies: UFG Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 January 2024.
6. Guzmán, Jessica (18 January 2024). "Encuesta Coloca a Bukele más de 50 Puntos Sobre sus Contendientes" [Poll Gives Bukele more than 50 Points Above His Competitors]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 January 2024.
7. Magaña, Yolanda (6 December 2023). "Nuevas Ideas con Amplia Ventaja Sobre Partidos Opositores: Encuesta Iudop-UCA" [Nuevas Ideas With High Support Over Opposition Parties: Iudop-UCA Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2023.
8. Martínez, Verónica (17 November 2023). "De Realizarse las Elecciones Hoy, el Presidente Bukele Ganaría con un 93% de Votos a Favor" [If the Election Happened Today, President Bukele Would Win with 93% of Votes in Favor]. La Noticia SV (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 November 2023.
9. "Presidente Nayib Bukele con 92% de Intención de Voto para Elecciones Presidenciales 2024" [President Nayib Bukele Has 92% of the Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election]. La Noticia SV (in Spanish). San Salvador, El Salvador. 18 September 2023. Retrieved 18 September 2023.
10. Crespín, Verónica (28 August 2023). "Bukele Ganaría Ampliamente la Reelección, Según Estudio de UFG" [Bukele Would Widely Win Re-Election, According to a UFG Study]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 August 2023.
11. Magaña, Yolanda (29 June 2023). "Encuesta: 45% Votaría por Nuevas Ideas, 2.9% por el FMLN y 2.7% por ARENA" [Poll: 45% Would Vote for Nuevas Ideas, 2.9% for the FMLN, and 2.7% for ARENA]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 June 2023.
12. Magaña, Yolanda (6 June 2023). "El 70.3% Votaría por Nuevas Ideas en Presidenciales 2024: UFG" [70.3% Will Vote for Nuevas Ideas in the 2024 Presidential Election: UFG]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2023.
13. Segura, Edwin (13 March 2023). "Nuevas Ideas Amplía su Favoritismo Electoral" [Nuevas Ideas Increases Its Electoral Favoritism]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 March 2023.
14. Segura, Edwin (14 December 2022). "LPG Datos | Nuevas Ideas Arranca como Favorito en Elección" [LPG Statistics | Nuevas Ideas Runs Away as Election Favorite]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 December 2022.
15. Picardo Joao, Óscar (10 November 2022). "La Última Encuesta del CEC–UFG: Reelección, Coyuntura Política y Preferencias Electorales" [The Most Recent Poll from CEC–UFG: Re-Election, Political Situation, and Electoral Preferences]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 11 November 2022. Retrieved 12 November 2022.
16. Supreme Electoral Court [@TSEElSalvador] (7 February 2019). "Resultados (Elección Presidencial de 2019)" [Results (2019 Presidential Election)] (Tweet) (in Spanish). San Salvador, El Salvador. Archived from the original on 29 August 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022– via Twitter.
17. Tobar, Tatiana (18 January 2024). "Nuevas Ideas Obtendría Mayoría en la Asamblea Legislativa, Según Encuesta de la UCA" [Nuevas Ideas Will Obtain a Majority in the Legislative Assembly, According to UCA Poll]. Diario la Huella (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 January 2024.
18. "Encuesta UFG: Bukele y NI Dominarían Todas las Elecciones en 2024" [UFG Poll: Bukele and NI Dominate All the 2024 Elections]. Contra Punto (in Spanish). 28 August 2023. Retrieved 28 August 2023.
19. Magaña, Yolanda (6 June 2023). "63% Votaría por Diputados de Nuevas Ideas, 43% Quiere Equilibrio: Encuesta UFG" [63% Will Vote for Nuevas Ideas Deputies, 43% Want Equilibrium: UFG Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2023.
20. Segura, Edwin (13 March 2023). "Salvadoreños Creen que es Más Conveniente una Asamblea Plural" [Salvadorans Believe a Plural Assembly is More Convenient]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 March 2023.
21. Segura, Edwin (15 December 2022). "LPG Datos | Ciudadanos Prefieren un Parlamento con Diversidad de Pensamiento" [LPG Statistics | Citizens Prefer a Parliament with Diversity of Thought]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 December 2022.
22. "Elecciones 2021 – Diputados y Diputadas para Asamblea Legislativa" [2021 Elections – Deputies for the Legislative Assembly](PDF). Supreme Electoral Court (in Spanish). March 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 April 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022.
23. Peñate, Susana (28 September 2023). "Tres de Cada Diez Personas Prefiere un Cambio de Partido Gobernante en su Municipio, Señala Encuesta" [Three Out of Every Ten People Prefer a Change in the Governing Party in Their Municipality, Says Poll]. El Diario de Hoy (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2023.
24. "Elecciones 2021 – Conformación de Consejos Municipales" [2021 Elections – Formation of Municipal Councils]. Supreme Electoral Court (in Spanish). March 2021. Archived from the original on 7 July 2022. Retrieved 12 November 2022.
25. Genoves, Alessia (19 September 2022). "88.3% de la Población, a Favor de Reelección de Bukele" [88.3% in Favor of Bukele's Re-Election]. Contra Punto (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 18 October 2022. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
26. America Elects [@AmericaElige] (20 September 2022). "Would you vote for the re-election of President Nayib Bukele (NI, conservative) if he decides to run?" (Tweet). Retrieved 16 October 2022– via Twitter.
27. Multiple sources:
    • Ertll, Randy (23 August 2023). "Why I Support Salvadoran President Bukele, the Scourge of Gangs and Corrupt Politicians" . Los Angeles Times . Los Angeles, California. Archived from the original on 23 August 2023.
    • Jiménez, Soudi (12 July 2022). "Entre el Populismo y la Constitución: Bukele Busca la Reelección Apelando al Apoyo de la Diáspora Salvadoreña" [Between Populism and the Constitution: Bukele Seeks Re-Election Appealing to the Support of the Salvadoran Diaspora]. Los Angeles Times (in Spanish). Los Angeles, California.
    • Jiménez, Soudi (21 October 2022). "El Salvador President Bukele's Re-Election Bid Stokes L.A. Immigrants' Fears of New Civil War". Los Angeles Times . Retrieved 24 October 2022.
    • "Salvadoreños en el Exterior Respaldan la Reelección del Presidente Nayib Bukele, Según CIESCA" [Salvadorans Abroad Support the Re-Election of President Nayib Bukele, According to CIESCA]. Diario la Huella (in Spanish). 11 November 2022. Archived from the original on 2 January 2023. Retrieved 1 January 2023.
28. Magaña, Yolanda (6 December 2023). "70% Avala que Bukele haya Presentado Candidatura Presidencial: Encuesta UCA" [70% Support Bukele Has Presented a Presidential Candidacy: UCA Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2023.
29. Penna, Carlos (31 May 2023). "Jun/23 El Salvador: 4 Años de Gobierno 92% lo Aprueba" [Jun/23 El Salvador: 4 Years of Government 92% Approve]. TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 November 2022.
30. Villarroel, Gabriela (6 June 2023). "El 75.6% Apoya la Reelección de Bukele de 2024, Según Encuesta de la UFG" [75.6% Support the Re-Election of Bukele in 2024, According to Poll from UFG]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2023.
31. CIESCA CENTROAMERICA [@CIESCA_OFICIAL] (31 May 2023). "Tercera entrega: Los salvadoreños aprueban la reelección del presidente @nayibbukele en un 91.85%" [Third poll: Salvadorans approve the re-election of president @nayibbukele with 91.85%.] (Tweet). Retrieved 31 May 2023– via Twitter.
32. Rentiera, Nelson (14 March 2023). "Despite Constitutional Ban, Salvadoran Leader Heavily Favored for Re-Election, Poll Shows". Reuters . San Salvador, El Salvador . Retrieved 15 March 2023.
33. Magaña, Yolanda (16 February 2023). "62.2% de Salvadoreños Están de Acuerdo con la Reelección de Bukele: Encuesta UFG" [62.2% of Salvadorans Are in Agreement of Bukele's Re-Election: UFG Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 February 2023.
34. Segura, Edwin (14 December 2022). "LPG Datos | Salvadoreños a Favor de Extender Mandato Presidencial" [LPG Statistics: | Salvadorans in Favor of Extending Presidential Mandate]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 December 2022.
35. Magaña, Yolanda (10 November 2022). "Mayoría Apoya la Reelección Inmediata de Bukele Según Encuesta de UFG" [Majority Support the Immediate Re-Election of Bukele According to Poll by UFG]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 November 2022.
36. America Elects [@AmericaElige] (30 September 2022). "Do you agree or disagree with the possible re-election of President Nayib Bukele (NI, conservative)?" (Tweet). Retrieved 16 October 2022– via Twitter.
37. Genoves, Alessia (26 May 2022). "Reelección de Bukele Piden 72.2% de la Población, según UFG" [72.2% of the Populations Asks for Bukele's Re-Election]. Contra Punto (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 17 October 2022. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
38. Segura, Edwin (14 March 2023). "LPG Datos | El 68% Dice que Definitivamente Asistirá a Votar" [LPG Statistics | 68% Say They Will Definitely Come to Vote]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2023.