The following tables list the results of opinion polls for the presidential, legislative, and municipal elections conducted since October 2022 in reverse chronological order for the upcoming 2024 Salvadoran general election. The party with the highest percentage is listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the party with the second highest percentage is listed in bold. The lead column shows the percentage between the parties with the first and second highest percentages. For legislative and municipal election polls, projected seat counts, if available, are listed below the percentage.
Presidential election polls | ||||||||||||||
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Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. | |||||||
Bukele (NI) | Sánchez (ARENA) | Flores (FMLN) | Parada (NT) | Renderos (FS) | Murillo (FPS) | Cardoza (PAIS) | ||||||||
2024 election | 4 Feb 2024 | N/A | 84.65 | 5.57 | 6.40 | 2.04 | 0.74 | 0.60 | – | – | – | – | 78.25 | [1] |
Cid-Gallup (exit poll) | 4 Feb 2024 | – | 87.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | 80.0 | [2] |
End of the presidential campaigning period on 31 January 2024 | ||||||||||||||
Cid-Gallup | Jan 2024 | 2,400 | 79.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | – | – | – | – | 1.0 | – | 12.0 | 74.0 | [3] |
Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 2,892 | 81.9 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | – | – | 3.0 | 3.0 | 77.7 | [4] |
Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 1,264 | 68.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | – | – | 7.8 | 19.3 | 66.4 | [4] |
CEC-UFG | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 1,904 | 70.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | – | – | 6.1 | 15.0 | 68.0 | [5] |
Fundaungo | 11 Nov–14 Dec 2023 | 1,201 | 56.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | – | – | – | 1.7 | 0.6 | 22.3 | 52.7 | [6] |
Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 1,512 | 61.7 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 59.1 | [7] |
Cid-Gallup | 6–13 Nov 2023 | 1,200 | 79.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | – | 14.0 | 76.0 | [8] |
Beginning of the presidential campaigning period on 3 October 2023 | ||||||||||||||
OPINES | 18 Sept 2023 | 1,320 | 92.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | 2.7 | 90.0 | [9] |
CEC-UFG | 15–21 Aug 2023 | 1,920 | 68.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | – | – | – | 9.2 | 11.8 | 64.1 | [10] |
Presidential election polls | |||||||||||||||
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Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PCN | Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. | |||||||
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 | |||||||||||||||
Fundaungo | 2 May–9 Jun 2023 | 2,314 | 53.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | – | 38.8 | 51.2 | [11] |
CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 70.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23.4 | 67.0 | [12] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,520 | 54.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | – | – | – | 0.8 | – | – | 42.5 | 52.5 | [13] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 49.3 | 2.6 | – | 1.4 | – | – | – | 1.1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 27.2 | 46.7 | [14] |
CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 66.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | 0.2 | 0.5 | – | 9.8 | 18.2 | 48.0 | [15] |
2019 election | 7 Feb 2019 | N/A | – | 31.72 | 14.41 | 53.10 | – | – | – | 0.77 | – | – | – | 21.38 | [16] |
Legislative election polls | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PCN | FPS | Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. | |||||||||||
Cid-Gallup | Jan 2024 | 2,400 | 60.0 56 | 5.0 2 | 2.0 1 | 4.0 1 | – 0 | – 1 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | 2.0 0 | – | 27.0 | 55.0 | [3] |
Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 534 | 67.6 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | – | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 19.9 | 62.9 | [17] |
Iudop-UCA | 3–14 Jan 2024 | 428 | 58.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – | 0.5 | – | – | 26.2 | 53.0 | [17] |
CEC-UFG | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 1,904 | – 57 | – 2 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 1 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – 0 | – | – | – | – | [5] |
Beginning of the legislative campaigning period on 3 December 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 866 | 81.2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | – | – | 0.1 | 75.7 | [7] |
CEC-UFG | 15–21 Aug 2023 | 1,920 | 59.0 58 | 5.8 1 | 2.9 1 | 2.5 0 | 2.1 0 | 1.2 0 | 0.5 0 | 0.9 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.0 0 | 0.1 0 | 0.4 0 | 1.1 0 | – | 12.0 | 11.1 | 53.2 | [18] |
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fundaungo | 2 May–9 Jun 2023 | 2,314 | 45.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 9.1 | 25.9 | 42.1 | [11] |
CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 63.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | – | – | – | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 4.7 | 20.2 | 58.0 | [19] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | 49.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.7 | – | 43.7 | 47.2 | [20] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 44.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 2.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 | 9.7 | 33.9 | 41.2 | [21] |
CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 62.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10.2 | 18.6 | 59.9 | [15] |
2021 election | 28 Feb 2021 | N/A | 66.46 56 | 12.18 14 | 6.91 4 | 5.29 5 | 4.08 2 | 1.70 1 | 1.70 1 | 1.01 1 | 0.56 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 54.28 | [22] |
Municipal election polls | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PCN | FPS | Other | None | Unsure | Lead | Ref. | |||||||||||
Beginning of the municipal campaigning period on 5 February 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||
CEC-UFG | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 1,904 | 54.7 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.3 | – | 3.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12.1 | 18.3 | – | 48.9 | [5] |
Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 1,512 | 40.3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | – | 11.5 | 31.2 | 35.5 | [7] |
Fundaungo | 1–5 Sept 2023 | 502 | 35.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – | 2.4 | 17.1 | 37.7 | 33.7 | [23] |
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fundaungo | 2 May–9 Jun 2023 | 2,314 | 40.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3 | – | 45.5 | 35.5 | [11] |
CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 56.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 23.5 | 51.8 | [19] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | 41.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.0 | – | 47.6 | 37.6 | [20] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 35.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 3.6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2.7 | 8.2 | 41.0 | 30.7 | [21] |
CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 50.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10.5 | 29.1 | 46.6 | [15] |
2021 election | 28 Feb 2021 | N/A | 50.78 152 | 19.01 35 | 11.16 30 | 10.86 27 | 4.93 14 | 1.73 3 | 0.45 0 | 0.39 1 | 0.69 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 31.77 | [24] |
According to polling conducted CIESCA and TResearch shortly after Bukele's announcement of re-election campaign, a large majority of Salvadorans support Bukele's re-election bid. [25] [26] Additionally, many Salvadoran Americans strongly support Bukele's re-election. [27]
The following table lists the results of opinion polls regarding Bukele's re-election, with the option with the highest percentage listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the lead column shows the difference between the "would support" and the "would not support" options. The following graph visualizes local regression of the table's results.
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Would support | Would not support | Undecided | Lead | Ref. |
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Iudop-UCA | 11–29 Nov 2023 | 1,512 | 69.9 | 24.3 | 5.8 | 45.6 | [28] |
TResearch | Jun 2023 | 1,000 | 90.9 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 82.1 | [29] |
CEC-UFG | 27 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,334 | 75.6 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 63.1 | [30] |
CIESCA | May 2023 | – | 91.85 | 5.36 | 2.79 | 86.49 | [31] |
TResearch | May 2023 | 1,000 | 90.4 | 9.3 | 0.3 | 81.1 | [29] |
TResearch | Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 91.2 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 83.7 | [29] |
TResearch | Mar 2023 | 1,000 | 92.6 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 86.4 | [29] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 15–24 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | 68.0 | 13.0 | 19.0 | 55.0 | [32] |
TResearch | 14–16 Feb 2023 | 1,000 | 93.9 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 88.2 | [29] |
CEC-UFG | 4–8 Feb 2023 | 1,263 | 62.2 | 19.0 | 18.8 | 43.2 | [33] |
TResearch | Jan 2023 | 1,000 | 92.7 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 86.8 | [29] |
TResearch | Dec 2022 | 1,000 | 93.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 88.9 | [29] |
La Prensa Gráfica | 16–21 Nov 2022 | 1,520 | 64.6 | 17.9 | 17.5 | 46.7 | [34] |
TResearch | Nov 2022 | 1,000 | 94.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 89.6 | [29] |
CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 74.7 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 61.9 | [35] |
CEC-UFG | 27–31 Oct 2022 | 1,227 | 77.2 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 66.2 | [35] |
TResearch | Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 94.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 90.9 | [29] |
TResearch | 17–19 Sep 2022 | 1,000 | 94.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 89.9 | [26] |
CIESCA | 18 Sep 2022 | 25,623 | 88.3 | 11.7 | – | 76.6 | [25] |
CEC-UFG | 10–14 Sep 2022 | 1,231 | 58.9 | 23.1 | 15.0 | 35.8 | [36] |
CEC-UFG | 26 May 2022 | – | 72.2 | – | – | – | [37] |
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Will vote | Will not vote | Undecided | Lead | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fundaungo | 1–5 Sept 2023 | 502 | 82.8 | 16.7 | 0.5 | 66.1 | [23] |
Fundaungo | 2 May–9 Jun 2023 | 2,314 | 83.2 | 15.1 | 1.7 | 68.1 | [11] |
La Prensa Gráfica | Feb 2023 | – | 83.6 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 74.1 | [38] |
La Prensa Gráfica | Nov 2022 | – | 78.8 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 68.5 | [38] |
Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez is a Salvadoran politician and businessman who is the 43rd president of El Salvador, serving since 1 June 2019. He is the first president since José Napoleón Duarte (1984–1989) not to have been elected as the candidate of one of the country's two major political parties: the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA).
Presidential elections were held in El Salvador on 3 February 2019, with Salvadorans electing the president and vice president for a five-year term from 2019 to 2024.
Legislative elections were held in El Salvador on 18 February 2021. Salvadorans elected all 84 deputies of the Legislative Assembly, all 262 mayors of municipal councils of the country's municipalities, and all 20 of El Salvador's deputies to the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN).
Nuevas Ideas is a Salvadoran political party. The party was founded on 25 October 2017 by Nayib Bukele, the then-mayor of San Salvador, and was registered by the Supreme Electoral Court on 21 August 2018. The party's current president is Xavier Zablah Bukele, a cousin of Bukele who has served since March 2020.
Gabriela Roberta Rodríguez de Bukele is a Salvadoran educator, prenatal psychologist and the current First Lady of El Salvador, as the wife of the 43rd President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. She is also a professional ballet dancer and is part of the dance company Fundación Ballet de El Salvador.
Xavier Eduardo Zablah Bukele is a Salvadoran politician and businessman who is the current president of the Nuevas Ideas political party. He is a cousin of Nayib Bukele, the current president of El Salvador.
Ernesto Alfredo Castro Aldana is a Salvadoran politician and businessman who currently serves as the president of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador. Castro previously served as a secretary and private advisor to Nayib Bukele from 2012 to 2020 when he was elected as a deputy of the Legislative Assembly from San Salvador in the 2021 legislative election.
Nuestro Tiempo is a Salvadoran political party. The party was founded in 2019 and it is currently led by Andy Failer.
Sandra Yanira Martínez Tobar is a Salvadoran pioneer in the field of meteorology, being the first woman to work in the National Meteorological Service later known as the Environmental Observatory of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, from where she retired in 2019. During the legislative and municipal elections on February 28, 2021, she was elected deputy of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador for La Libertad Department during the period from May 1, 2021 to May 1, 2024.
General elections were held in El Salvador on 4 February 2024 to elect the president, vice president and all 60 deputies of the Legislative Assembly. This will be followed by a second set of elections on 3 March 2024 in which voters will elect all 44 mayors and municipal councils of the country's municipalities and all 20 of El Salvador's deputies to the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN).
The Salvadoran gang crackdown, referred to in El Salvador as the Régimen de Excepción and the Guerra Contra las Pandillas, began in March 2022 in response to a crime spike between 25 and 27 March 2022, when 87 people were killed in El Salvador. The Salvadoran government blamed the spike in murders on criminal gangs in the country, resulting in the country's legislature approving a state of emergency that suspended the rights of association and legal counsel, and increased the time spent in detention without charge, among other measures that expanded the powers of law enforcement in the country.
Opinion polling has been conducted in El Salvador since September 2019, three months after President Nayib Bukele took office on 1 June 2019, to gauge public opinion of Bukele and his government. Despite negative reception from outside of El Salvador, domestically, Bukele is considered to be one of the most popular presidents in Salvadoran history as his approval ratings generally hover around 90 percent.
Claudia Mercedes Ortiz Menjívar is a Salvadoran politician who currently serves as a deputy of the Legislative Assembly. She is the only member of the political party Vamos in the legislature, being elected in the 2021 legislative election from the department of San Salvador.
Protests against re-election occurred in San Salvador, El Salvador on 1 May 2023 and 15 September 2023. In two protest marches, protesters marched from the Cuscatlán Park and the Rosales Hospital to the Gerardo Barrios Plaza in protest of the 2022–23 gang crackdown and President Nayib Bukele's re-election campaign. Protesters also demanded an increase in minimum wage and that the government respects the rights of syndicates and respects the constitution.
Juan Manuel de Jesús Flores Cornejo, nicknamed "El Chino", is a Salvadoran politician. As a member of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), Flores served as the mayor of Quezaltepeque from 2003 to 2012 and then later as a deputy of the Legislative Assembly from La Libertad from 2012 to 2021. He was the presidential candidate for the FMLN in the 2024 general election with running mate is Werner Marroquín. He lost in a landslide victory for incumbent Nayib Bukele. Flores supports El Salvador further strengthening relations with the People's Republic of China.
Guillermo Antonio Gallegos Navarrete is a Salvadoran lawyer and politician of the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA). He currently serves as a deputy of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador and previously served as the president of the Legislative Assembly
Luis Alberto Parada Fuentes is a Salvadoran lawyer and retired soldier. Parada serves as an international defense attorney and is known for his work on the case of the 1989 murders of Jesuits in El Salvador. Parada is currently the presidential candidate for Nuestro Tiempo for the 2024 Salvadoran general election.
Karim Alberto Bukele Ortez is a Salvadoran businessman and politician. He is a younger brother of and was a presidential advisor to Nayib Bukele, the current president of El Salvador. Bukele has previously worked as Nayib's campaign manager during his 2015 and 2019 electoral campaigns as well as the campaign manager for the Nuevas Ideas political party in 2021. In late-2023, Bukele was considered a likely candidate to succeed Nayib as acting president in the event that he resigned ahead of the 2024 general election, however, Bukele denied that he would succeed Nayib.
Yusef Alí Bukele Ortez is a Salvadoran businessman, politician, and economist. He is a younger brother of and advisor to Nayib Bukele, the current president of El Salvador. Bukele has served as one of Nayib's economic advisors and played a role in the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador.
Claudia Juana Rodríguez de Guevara is a Salvadoran accountant who has served as presidential designate and the acting president of El Salvador since 1 December 2023. She assumed presidential powers and duties after President Nayib Bukele was granted a leave of absence by the Legislative Assembly to focus on his 2024 re-election campaign, which some constitutional lawyers have argued violates the country's constitution.