2019 Salvadoran presidential election

2019 Salvadoran presidential election

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Opinion polls
Registered	5,268,411
Turnout	51.88% ( 3.44pp)
Nominee Nayib Bukele Carlos Calleja Hugo Martínez Party GANA ARENA FMLN Running mate Félix Ulloa Carmen Lazo Karina Sosa Popular vote 1,434,856 857,084 389,289 Percentage 53.10% 31.72% 14.41%
Results by department
President before election Salvador Sánchez Cerén FMLN Elected President Nayib Bukele GANA

Presidential elections were held in El Salvador on 3 February 2019, with Salvadorans electing the president and vice president for a five-year term from 2019 to 2024.

The election resulted in victory for Nayib Bukele of the right-wing Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA), who received 53%, defeating Carlos Calleja of the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), Hugo Martínez of the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and Josué Alvarado of the centrist Vamos party. ^[1] With his victory, Bukele became the first president since José Napoleón Duarte (1984–1989) to not be a member of either ARENA or the FMLN, which had controlled the presidency in a two-party system from 1989 to 2019.

Prior to the elections, Bukele held a lead against Calleja, Martínez and Alvarado in virtually every poll conducted between July 2018 and January 2019. A second round in March was rendered unnecessary as Bukele won an outright majority; Bukele won a plurality in all of the country's fourteen departments, winning an outright majority in eight of them. ^{[2] [3]} Bukele was inaugurated on 1 June 2019. ^[4]

Background

Presidency of Salvador Sánchez Cerén

Further information: 2014 Salvadoran presidential election, 2015 Salvadoran legislative election, and 2018 Salvadoran legislative election

Salvador Sánchez Cerén at his inauguration in 2014.

Salvador Sánchez Cerén, the then vice president of El Salvador, won the 2014 presidential election by a narrow margin. As a member of the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), he defeated Norman Quijano, the then mayor of San Salvador of the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance, in that election's second round, winning 50.11 percent of the vote by a margin of 6,364 votes. ^[5] Sánchez Cerén was inaugurated on 1 June 2014, succeeding fellow FMLN President Mauricio Funes. He was the first former guerrilla fighter from the Salvadoran Civil War to be elected president. ^[6]

Although in control of the presidency, the FMLN did not have a majority of the Legislative Assembly, with power being divided between it, ARENA, and various other political parties. In the 2015 legislative election, the FMLN won 31 seats and ARENA won 35 seats, with the remaining 18 seats being controlled by other parties. ^[7] In the succeeding 2018 legislative election, the FMLN fell to 23 seats while ARENA increased to 38 seats, with the remaining 23 seats being controlled by other parties. ^[8]

Electoral system

Electoral procedure

In October 2017, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) scheduled El Salvador's upcoming 2019 presidential election to occur on 3 February 2019, with a possible second round being scheduled for 10 March 2019. In the election, Salvadorans would elect the country's president and vice president to serve a five-year term from 2019 to 2024. ^[9]

A presidential candidate needed to win an absolute absolute majority (50% + 1) to be declared the winner of the election. If no candidate received an absolute majority, a second between the two candidates with the most valid votes would have occurred. All presidential and vice presidential candidates must have been at least 30 years old and be Salvadoran citizens by birth. ^{[10] [11]}

Electoral dates

The following tables lists dates which mark events which related to the election. ^[9]

Date	Event
2 February 2018	Deadline for voters to change address
4 April 2018	Deadline for parties to convoke primary elections
2 October 2018	Beginning of electoral campaigning
5 October 2018	Deadline for the TSE to convoke the presidential election
3 February 2019	Presidential election
10 March 2019	Second round (if necessary)

Electoral campaigns

Nationalist Republican Alliance

On 27 October 2017, Mauricio Interiano  [ es ], the president of the Nationalist Republican Alliance, announced that the party would hold its primary election on 22 April 2018. ^[12] Six members of the party expressed interest in securing the party's presidential nomination: ^{[12] [13]}

• Gerardo Awad, businessman
• Carlos Calleja, businessman
• Gustavo López, businessman
• Rafael Montalvo, former deputy of the Legislative Assembly
• Luis Parada, lawyer
• Javier Simán, businessman

In October 2017, Parada withdrew his candidacy, believing that his campaign would be impossible. ^[14] In December 2017, Awad and Montalvo were eliminated from competition, while Calleja, Simán, and López advanced to the party's primary election ^[13] where Calleja won 60.8 percent of the vote, officially becoming the party's presidential nominee. ^[15]

2018 ARENA presidential primary election

Candidate	Votes	%
Carlos Calleja	34,670	60.80
Javier Simán	21,779	38.19
Gustavo López	574	1.01
Total	57,023	100.00
Valid votes	57,023	96.86
Invalid votes	1,292	2.19
Blank votes	559	0.95
Total votes	58,874	100.00
Source: Nationalist Republican Alliance

Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front

On 28 February 2018, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front announced that it would hold its primary election on 27 May 2018. ^{[16] [17]} Óscar Ortiz, the then vice president of El Salvador, was a potential candidate to secure the party's nomination, but he declined to run after Salvador Cerén appointed him as the technical secretary of the presidency. ^[17] Two party members announced their intention to seek the party's presidential nomination: ^{[17] [18]}

• Gerson Martínez  [ es ], former deputy of the Legislative Assembly
• Hugo Martínez, minister of foreign affairs (2014–2018)

On 27 May 2018, Hugo Martínez was selected as the party's presidential nominee, winning 72.09 percent of the vote. ^[19] The party elected Karina Sosa, a former deputy of the Legislative Assembly, as the party's vice presidential nominee. ^[20]

2018 FMLN presidential primary election

Candidate	Votes	%
Hugo Martínez	20,259	72.09
Gerson Martínez  [ es ]	7,845	27.91
Total	28,104	100.00
Valid votes	28,104	99.47
Invalid/blank votes	150	0.53
Total votes	28,254	100.00
Source: El Mundo

Grand Alliance for National Unity

The Grand Alliance for National Unity held its primary election on 29 July 2018. Two candidates participated in the election, Nayib Bukele, the former mayor of San Salvador from 2015 to 2018, and Will Salgado  [ es ], the former mayor of San Miguel, but the day before the election, Salgado announced that he withdrew from the primary. Although Salgado withdrew, his name was still on the ballot, ^[21] but regardless, Bukele won 93.71 percent of the vote and was selected as the party's presidential nominee. ^{[22] [21]} Bukele's campaign slogan was "Let's Make History" ("Hagamos Historia"). ^[23]

2018 GANA presidential primary election

Candidate	Votes	%
Nayib Bukele	1,863	93.71
Will Salgado  [ es ] (withdrawn)	125	6.29
Total	1,988	100.00
Valid votes	1,988	96.41
Invalid votes	65	3.15
Blank votes	9	0.44
Total votes	2,062	100.00
Source: El Mundo

Presidential candidates

Party		Candidate		Running mate
	Grand Alliance for National Unity Grand Alliance for National Unity [a]	Nayib Bukele	Nayib Bukele Mayor of San Salvador (2015–2018) Mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán (2012–2015)	Félix Ulloa	Félix Ulloa
	Nationalist Republican Alliance Nationalist Republican Alliance [b]	Carlos Calleja	Carlos Calleja	Carmen Lazo	Carmen Lazo
	Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front	Hugo Martínez	Hugo Martínez Minister of Foreign Affairs (2009–2013, 2014–2018) Secretary General of SICA (2013–2014) Deputy of the Legislative Assembly (2003–2009)	Karina Sosa	Karina Sosa Deputy of the Legislative Assembly (2012–2021)
	Vamos Vamos	Josué Alvarado	Josué Alvarado	Roberto Rivera	Roberto Rivera

Debates

Two presidential debates were held; the first was hosted by the University of El Salvador (UES) on 16 December 2018 and the second was hosted by the Salvadoran Association of Broadcasters  [ es ] (ASDER). Calleja, Martínez, and Alvarado attended both debates, while Bukele was absent from both. ^{[24] [25]}

2019 Salvadoran presidential election debates
Date	Organizers	P  Present    A  Absent
		ARENA	FMLN	VAMOS	GANA	Ref.
16 Dec 2018	UES	P Calleja	P Martínez	P Alvarado	A Bukele	[24]
13 Jan 2019	ASDER	P Calleja	P Martínez	P Alvarado	A Bukele	[25]

Opinion polls

Opinion polling from July 2018 through January 2019 consistently gave Bukele a lead over Calleja, Martínez, and Alvarado.

Local regression of polls conducted

Presidential election polls
Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Calleja (ARENA)	Martínez (FMLN)	Alvarado (VAMOS)	Bukele (GANA)	Undecided	None	Lead	Ref.
CONARES	17 Jan 2019	2,012	19.0	13.0	1.0	61.0	3.0	3.0	42.0	[26]
CDOP	17 Jan 2019	1,300	27.3	10.5	1.0	36.1	9.6	15.1	8.8	[27]
CIOPS/UTEC	16 Jan 2019	2,113	24.0	8.1	0.6	40.4	26.1	–	16.4	[28]
UFG	15 Jan 2019	1,536	21.8	8.1	1.0	42.6	18.4	8.1	20.8	[29]
CIG-Gallup	11 Jan 2019	1,000	23.0	8.0	1.0	42.0	26.0	–	19.0	[30]
Mitofsky	8 Jan 2019	1,000	31.0	11.0	1.0	57.0	–	–	26.0	[31]
IUDOP/UCA	13 Dec 2018	1,806	19.7	10.6	0.8	44.1	22.3	2.5	24.4	[32]
TResearch	11 Dec 2018	1,000	31.0	10.3	1.3	57.4	–	–	26.4	[33]
UES	10 Dec 2018	1,557	17.34	8.73	0.26	48.43	25.24	–	31.09	[34]
Fundaungo	7 Dec 2018	1,985	21.4	11.3	0.6	42.0	15.0	9.7	20.6	[35]
TResearch	5 Dec 2018	1,000	31.3	10.4	1.3	57.0	–	–	25.7	[36]
CIOPS/UTEC	5 Dec 2018	2,133	24.5	10.4	0.9	40.5	12.8	10.9	16.0	[37]
La Prensa Gráfica	29 Nov 2018	2,000	16.8	6.9	0.5	28.9	5.7	41.2	12.1	[38]
TResearch	25 Nov 2018	1,000	31.9	10.8	1.4	55.9	–	–	24.0	[39]
Fundaungo	20 Nov 2018	1,068	14.2	10.2	1.9	35.1	10.0	28.6	20.9	[40]
UFG	19 Nov 2018	1,538	21.4	6.4	1.5	40.7	21.2	8.7	19.3	[41]
CID-Gallup	1 Nov 2018	1,000	28.0	16.0	1.0	44.0	–	1.0	16.0	[42]
TResearch	29 Oct 2018	1,000	32.2	9.0	0.9	56.6	–	1.3	24.4	[43]
TResearch	24 Oct 2018	1,000	32.1	9.3	1.1	56.5	–	1.0	24.4	[44]
ICP	23 Oct 2018	1,400	31.7	13.6	0.6	33.3	–	20.8	1.6	[45]
TResearch	15 Oct 2018	1,000	31.8	9.4	1.0	56.1	–	1.7	24.3	[46]
CIOPS/UTEC	9 Oct 2018	2,133	21.0	10.5	1.0	48.0	19.5	–	27.0	[47]
CONARES	8 Oct 2018	1,400	21.0	11.0	1.0	45.0	11.0	11.0	24.0	[48]
TResearch	1 Oct 2018	1,000	32.4	10.9	1.1	54.6	–	1.0	22.2	[49]
CID-Gallup	26 Sept 2018	1,205	20.0	7.0	1.0	45.0	27.0	–	25.0	[50]
La Prensa Gráfica	31 Aug 2018	1,520	17.6	8.6	0.3	21.9	37.5	14.1	4.3	[51]
UFG	28 Aug 2018	1,295	23.0	10.0	2.3	37.7	26.0	1.0	14.7	[52]
TResearch	19 Aug 2018	3,600	30.2	9.7	1.1	55.9	–	3.1	25.7	[53]
TResearch	31 Jul 2018	3,600	31.7	9.7	2.8	55.8	–	–	24.1	[54]
CID-Gallup	30 Jul 2018	806	24.0	5.0	0.0	38.0	33.0	–	14.0	[55]
2014 election	9 Mar 2014	N/A	49.89	50.11	–	–	–	–	0.22	[5]

Results

Candidate		Running mate	Party	Votes	%
	Nayib Bukele	Félix Ulloa	Grand Alliance for National Unity	1,434,856	53.10
	Carlos Calleja	Carmen Aída Lazo	Nationalist Republican Alliance	857,084	31.72
	Hugo Martínez	Karina Sosa	Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front	389,289	14.41
	Josué Alvarado	Roberto Rivera	Vamos	20,763	0.77
Total				2,701,992	100.00
Valid votes				2,701,992	98.86
Invalid/blank votes				31,186	1.14
Total votes				2,733,178	100.00
Registered voters/turnout				5,268,411	51.88
Source: TSE

By department

Department	ARENA		FMLN		Vamos		GANA
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Ahuachapán	50,051	36.10	28,257	20.38	660	0.47	59,689	43.05
Cabañas	26,325	39.61	8,586	12.92	199	0.30	31,346	47.17
Chalatenango	30,364	32.40	20,934	22.34	316	0.34	42,092	44.92
Cuscatlán	39,098	33.89	17,882	15.50	609	0.52	57,795	50.09
La Libertad	117,092	37.25	33,823	9.85	3,756	1.10	177,832	51.80
La Paz	40,762	29.41	17,357	12.53	656	0.47	79,803	57.59
La Unión	29,138	31.82	12,256	13.39	295	0.32	49,871	54.47
Morazán	26,007	32.13	23,102	28.54	193	0.23	31,649	39.10
San Miguel	43,960	24.36	37,529	20.80	906	0.50	98,064	54.34
San Salvador	246,792	29.99	86,656	10.53	9,582	1.16	479,991	58.32
Santa Ana	77,550	34.09	24,695	10.86	1,821	0.80	123,413	54.25
San Vicente	22,786	31.33	15,921	21.89	266	0.36	33,765	46.42
Sonsonate	60,796	31.62	28,599	14.87	1,095	0.57	101,794	52.94
Usulután	35,422	26.47	33,350	24.93	406	0.30	64,619	48.30
Total	857,084	31.72	389,289	14.41	20,763	0.77	1,434,856	53.10
Source: TSE

See also

• Elections in El Salvador
• List of elections in 2019
  • 2019 national electoral calendar

Notes

1. Bukele's electoral campaign with the Grand Alliance for National Unity was supported by Nuevas Ideas.
2. Calleja's campaign with the Nationalist Republican Alliance was supported by the National Coalition Party (PCN), Christian Democratic Party (PDC), and Salvadoran Democracy (DS).

References

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51. "Electorado se inclina a favor de GANA". La Prensa Gráfica. August 2018. Retrieved 31 August 2018.
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External links

• Supreme Electoral Court website (in Spanish)
  • Constitution of El Salvador (in Spanish)
  • Law of Political Parties (in Spanish)