Opinion polling for the September 2019 Israeli legislative election

Last updated

Polling for the 17 September 2019 Israeli legislative election [1] began on 26 May 2019. [2]

Contents

Seat projections

Graphs

These graphs show the polling trends from the time Knesset dissolved until the election day. No polls may be published from the end of Friday before the election until the polling stations closing on election day at 22:00. [3]

If more than one poll was conducted on the same day, the graphs show the average of the polls for that date.

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest figure in each survey is displayed in bold and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then both figures are shaded. Parties that fall below the threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%), instead of the seats they would have gotten. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Color key:

   Exit poll

DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Yamina Labor-
Gesher
Yisrael
Beiteinu
Dem.
Union
Zehut Otzma
Yehudit
Gov. [lower-alpha 1]
Pre-election seats [4] 38351088665460
Election results [5] [6] 323313977685N/A(1.9%)55
17 SepKANTAR Kan 11 [7] 31321398769555
17 SepMidgam Channel 12 [8] 32321398769555
17 SepPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [9] 30321598668653
13 Sep Election silence starting end of Friday before election day. [3]
13 SepPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [10] 323212679495454
12–13 SepMidgam Channel 12 [11] 323210788586455
10–13 SepShvakim Panorama HOT [12] 333211787495455
12 SepSmith Maariv [13] 333212879586(3.1%)57
12 SepPanels Politics Knesset Channel [14] 36321078949560
11–12 SepSmith103fm [15] 333212879496(2.9%)57
11–12 SepKANTAR Kan 11 [16] 313311789575455
10–11 SepMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [17] 333112777694454
10 SepPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [18] 313211679596453
9–10 SepMidgam Channel 12 [19] 31329779696454
9 SepKANTAR Kan 11 [20] 313210779596454
8–9 SepMidgam Walla! [21] 32339679686454
5 SepPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [22] 32321068105116(2.76%)56
4–5 SepMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [23] 3130118786114454
4–5 SepSmith103fm & Maariv [24] 323298796107(2.5%)56
4–5 SepMidgam Channel 12 [25] 323210789697(2.5%)56
4 SepPanels Politics Knesset Channel [26] 3131107810595456
1–2 SepMidgam Walla! [27] 323110789797(2.7%)56
1 SepPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [28] 31321067106117(2.8%)54
1 SepKANTAR Kan 11 [29] 3231117710697(2.9%)56
29 Aug Zehut announces withdrawal [30]
27–29 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [4] 3032118710511655
28 AugSmith103fm/ Maariv [31] 32311087105107(1.6%)(2.5%)57
28 AugMidgam Channel 12 [32] 31301078107107(1.2%)(1.8%)56
22–25 AugKANTAR Kan 11 [33] 3231117710796(1.7%)(2.3%)56
22 AugMidgam Channel 12 [34] 30301178116107(2.3%)(1.9%)56
22 AugSmith103fm [35] 32301187105107(1.4%)(2.2%)57
20–22 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [36] 32311287104106(2%)(2%)57
21 AugMidgam Walla! [37] 3130117811697(2.8%)(2.0%)57
18 AugDirect Polls Makor Rishon [38] 3129108811797(1.6%)(2.3%)58
15 AugSmith103fm [39] 3230118796107(2.3%)(1.7%)56
15 AugPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [40] 3131967125118(1.4%)(2.1%)56
13 AugMidgam Channel 12 [41] 30291178117107(2.9%)(2.7%)56
8 AugSmith103fm [42] 3230118710598(1.8%)(1.5%)57
5 AugDirect Polls Channel 13 [43] 30291177117108(2.2%)(1.9%)55
5 AugMidgam Walla! [44] 31291178116107(1.9%)(2.2%)57
4 AugKANTAR Reshet Bet [45] 29301177116118(1.9%)(2.8%)54
2 AugMidgam Channel 12 [46] 30291178126107(2.2%)(1.9%)57
2 AugSmith103fm [47] 31291187115108(1.2%)(1.8%)57
1 AugDeadline for submitting the candidate lists [48]
1 AugPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [49] 3029116711611954
1 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [50] 30281277116109(2%)(2%)55
31 Jul Kulanu officially dissolves and its remaining members join Likud [51]
30 JulMidgam Channel 12 [52] 30301178125107(1.4%)(1.2%)57
29 JulThe URWP and the New Right agree to run together as Yamina [53] [54]
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Dem.
Union
New
Right
Zehut Gov. [lower-alpha 1]
Seats at dissolution39351088655460
26 JulSmith103fm/ Maariv [55] 302811876959757
25 JulPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [56] 2823115671041210457
25 JulMidgam Channel 12 [57] 292711785104109(1.9%)57
25 JulMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [58] 313012775769657
25 JulKANTAR Kan 11 [59] 3030107859489(2.4%)58
25 Jul Meretz, IDP and the Green Movement agree to run together as the Democratic Union [60] [61]
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz New
Right
Zehut IDP Gov. [lower-alpha 1]
Seats at dissolution393510886554N/A60
25 JulMidgam & iPanel Walla! [62] 29291278810458(1.9%)(2.3%)56
21 Jul Ayelet Shaked becomes the leader of the New Right [63]
21 JulKANTAR Kan 11 [64] 30301078810458(1.2%)(2.8%)57
21 JulMidgam & iPanel Channel 12 [65] 3029117879546(1.8%)456
19 JulSmith103fm/ Maariv [66] 3229108769456457
19 JulDirect Polls Makor Rishon [67] 3229117868455(1%)556
18 Jul Labor and Gesher agree to run on a joint list [68]
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz New
Right
Zehut Gesher IDP Gov. [lower-alpha 1]
Seats at dissolution393510886554N/A60
17 JulDialog Arutz Sheva [69] 3128118788474(1%)454
16 JulMidgam Channel 12 [70] 31301178610445(1.7%)455
12 JulSmith103fm/ Maariv [71] 3330108758456458
11 JulMidgam Walla! [72] 3030117869555(2.7%)455
9 Jul The Jewish Home and Tkuma agree to run together again as the URWP [73]
4 JulMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [74] 313096787864(1%)456
3 JulMidgam Channel 12 [75] 3231127789545(2.1%)(3%)56
3 JulStatnet Channel 13 [75] 3129976784454657
2 Jul Labor elects Amir Peretz as its leader [76]
27 Jun Meretz elects Nitzan Horowitz as its leader [77]
26 JunPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [78] 3232126657464652
26 JunFormer PM Ehud Barak announces the founding of the Israel Democratic Party [79] [80]
25 Jun Otzma Yehudit leaves the Union of the Right-Wing Parties [81]
20 Jun HadashTa'al and Ra'amBalad agree to re-establish the Joint List [82]
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz Ra'am
Balad
New
Right
Zehut Gesher Gov. [lower-alpha 1]
Seats at dissolution39358866554460
20 JunMaagar Mohot103fm [83] 343388468654460
14 JunMaagar Mohot103fm [84] 353378468554560
7 JunPanels Politics Maariv [85] 37337847764(2.4%)6(2.2%)64
2 JunMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [86] 3634774684455(2%)59
30 MayPanels Politics Maariv [87] 373378(1.9%)596645(1.4%)63
30 MayPanel Project HaMidgam & Statnet Channel 13 [88] 36337747976457
30 MayKANTAR Kan 11 [89] 3534785684544(3.1%)(2.2%)58
30 MayThe 21st Knesset is dissolved [1]
28 May Kulanu and Likud agree to run on a joint list [90]
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Kulanu Meretz Ra'am
Balad
New
Right
Zehut Gesher Gov. [lower-alpha 1]
28 MayDirect Polls Makor Rishon [91] 3433787795(1.67%)5(2.3%)5(1.44%)(0.96%)59
26 MayPanels Politics Maariv [2] 35348867665562
9 Apr Election results [92] 3535886655444(3.22%)(2.74%)(1.73%)60

Scenarios

Zehut, Otzma Yehudit & Noam withdraw
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yamina Yisrael
Beiteinu
Dem.
Union
Oth.Gov.
27–29 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [4] 313111874121156258
Left-Wing Union (including Democratic Union) and URWP + New Right
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
Dem. Union
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right
Oth.Gov.
25 JulKANTAR Kan 11 [59] 29291078148156159
Left-Wing Union (including Democratic Union)
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
Dem. Union
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right Oth.Gov.
25 JulMidgam Channel 12 [57] 292711781510496357
Union of the Right-Wing Parties + New Right headed by Ayelet Shaked (including Democratic Union and Zehut)
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right
Dem. Union Zehut Oth.Gov.
25 JulPanel Project
HaMidgam & Statnet
Channel 13 [56] 28231156710141246357
25 JulMidgam Channel 12 [57] 282711785101410(1.9%)6357
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Ayelet Shaked (including Labor-Gesher)
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz IDP Oth.Gov.
25 JulMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [93] 253113775816446555
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Ayelet Shaked
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher IDP Oth.Gov.
18 JulDialog Arutz Sheva [94] 312810787810746456
16 JulMidgam Channel 12 [70] 2830117861012446555
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Rafi Peretz (including Labor-Gesher)
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz IDP Oth.Gov.
25 JulMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [93] 32301377679556655
Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Rafi Peretz
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher IDP Oth.Gov.
18 JulDialog Arutz Sheva [94] 32291167788746753
10 JulKantarSaloona [95] 282910787615656258
4 JulMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [74] 25318677619746357
Left-Wing Union
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP+
Meretz
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right Zehut Gesher Oth.Gov.
16 JulMidgam Channel 12 [70] 312811781511456555
4 JulMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [74] 3126867197886060
Likud+Ayelet Shaked, URWP+Naftali Bennett
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz Ra'am
Balad
Zehut Gesher Oth.Gov.
30 MayPanels Politics Maariv [87] 413478487655763
Gabi Ashkenazi leading Blue & White
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Shas UTJ Labor Hadash
Ta'al
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP Meretz Ra'am
Balad
New
Right
Zehut Gesher Oth.Gov.
14 JunMaagar Mohot103fm [84] 33357846845456357
Zehut and New Right merger
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor Yisrael
Beiteinu
Meretz URWP New Right
Zehut
Gesher IDP Oth.Gov.
10 JulKantarSaloona [95] 302910786865646456
9 JulKantar Kan 11 [96] 30309787964556654
Zehut and New Right merger and Left-Wing Union
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP+
Meretz
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right
Zehut
Gesher Oth.Gov.
10 JulKantarSaloona [95] 29301078187566555
Labor and Meretz merger without Gesher
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
Meretz
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP New Right Zehut Gesher IDP Oth.Gov.
19 JulSmith103fm/ Maariv [66] 322710871394646357
Labor and IDP merger without Gesher, Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Ayelet Shaked
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher Oth.Gov.
19 JulDirect Polls Makor Rishon [67] 302811781181256357
Labor and IDP merger without Gesher, Expanded Union of Right-Wing Parties headed by Rafi Peretz
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor+
IDP
Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Zehut+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Gesher Oth.Gov.
19 JulDirect Polls Makor Rishon [67] 33291188109756456
IDP and Meretz merger, New Right and URWP merger
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
New Right+
URWP
IDP+
Meretz
Oth.Gov.
21 JulKANTAR Kan 11 [64] 282910787101296555
URWP, New Right, and Otzma Yehudit merger
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
URWP+
New Right+
Otzma Yehudit
Meretz Zehut IDP Oth.Gov.
21 JulMidgam Channel 12 [65] 2829117879134(1.9%)46456
Democratic Union & URWP, New Right, and Otzma Yehudit merger
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud+
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
UR+
Otzma
Dem.
Union
Zehut Oth.Gov.
1 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [97] 292812775111386456
30 JulMidgam Channel 12 [52] 29301178510137(2.2%)6357
Democratic Union & URWP, New Right, Zehut, and Otzma Yehudit merger
DatePolling firmPublisher Likud+
Kulanu
Blue &
White
Joint
List
Shas UTJ Labor-Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
UR+
Zehut+
Otzma
Dem.
Union
Oth.Gov.
30 JulMidgam Channel 12 [52] 283011785101476357

Preferred Prime Minister polls

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Netanyahu vs Gantz
DatePolling firmPublisher Netanyahu Gantz NeitherDon't Know
13 SepPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [98] 463114
12–13 SepMidgam Channel 12 [11] 4131199
12 SepPanels Politics Knesset Channel [14] 3929
9–10 SepMidgam Channel 12 [19] 4033
8–9 SepMidgam Walla! [21] 3930198
4–5 SepMidgam Channel 12 [25] 413128
1–2 SepMidgam Walla! [27] 3930179
28 AugMidgam Channel 12 [32] 4329199
22 AugMidgam Channel 12 [34] 4229218
12 AugMidgam Channel 12 [41] 4132216
5 AugMidgam Walla! [44] 4330176
1 AugPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [49] 433217
30 JulMidgam Channel 12 [52] 4232188
25 JulPanel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [56] 40331710
25 JulMidgam Channel 12 [57] 4230
25 JulMidgam & iPanel Walla! [62] 4130225
21 JulMidgam Channel 12 [65] 39292210
16 JulMidgam Channel 12 [70] 40282210
3 JulMidgam Channel 12 [75] 4030219
30 MayKANTAR Kan 11 [89] 4438
Netanyahu vs Barak
DatePolling firmPublisher Netanyahu Barak NeitherDon't Know
3 JulMidgam Channel 12 [75] 4116349
General
DatePolling firmPublisher Netanyahu Gantz Lapid Ashkenazi Gabbay Peretz Lieberman Bennett Shaked Barak
10–11 SepMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [17] 422823343
4–5 SepMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [23] 402334353
4 SepPanels Politics Knesset Channel [26] 3424262
27–29 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [4] 402442464
20–22 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [36] 392353354
1 AugMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [50] 352456107
11 JulMidgam Walla! [72] 422267
4 JulMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [74] 35224312
3 JulStatnet Channel 13 [75] 462210
2 JunMaagar Mohot Israel Hayom [86] 392733253

Potential bias

Direct Polls institute, which conducts some of the polls, is owned by Shlomo Filber, the former director general of the Ministry of Communications and Likud campaign manager in the 2015 Israeli legislative election. Filber turned state's evidence in Case 4000, in which Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has been indicted for bribery. In the April 2019 Israeli legislative election, Filber advised the New Right campaign, potentially compromising his objectivity. Filber's polling method is controversial and is based on SMS. [99]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum of government parties: Likud, Shas, UTJ, and Yamina

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References

  1. 1 2 Gil Hoffman; Lahav Harkov (30 May 2019). "Israel goes back to elections as Netanyahu fails to form coalition". The Jerusalem Post .
  2. 1 2 Arik Bender (27 May 2019). "New Israeli elections would give Netanyahu an easy win - poll". The Jerusalem Post . Retrieved 28 May 2019.
  3. 1 2 s:he:חוק הבחירות (דרכי תעמולה)#סעיף 16ה (ח) (in Hebrew)
  4. 1 2 3 4 "Yisrael Hayom & I24NEWS Poll: Blue & White 32, Likud 30, Joint List 11, Yisrael Beitenu 11, Yamina 10; Scenario Poll w/o Otzma/Noam/Zehut: Likud 31, Blue & White 32, Yamina 12". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 30 August 2019. Retrieved 30 August 2019.
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  6. "i24NEWS". i24 News. 24 September 2019.
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