Prince Edward Island electoral reform referendum, 2016

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2016 Plebiscite on
Democratic Renewal
Location Prince Edward Island
Date27 October 2016 (2016-10-27) – 7 November 2016 (2016-11-07)
Voting system Instant-runoff voting
First round
Dual Member Proportional Representation
21.45%
First-Past-The-Post (the current system)
31.22%
First-Past-The-Post Plus Leaders
7.61%
Mixed Member Proportional Representation
29.04%
Preferential Voting
10.64%
Website: yourchoicepei.ca

The 2016 Plebiscite on Democratic Renewal [1] was a non-binding [2] referendum on electoral reform held in the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island between 27 October – 7 November 2016. The referendum asked which of five voting systems residents would prefer to use in electing members to the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island. [3] [4] [5] The referendum, after four instant run-off rounds, indicated mixed member proportional representation was the preferred choice with over 52% support on the final ballot. [6]

A referendum is a direct vote in which an entire electorate is invited to vote on a particular proposal. This may result in the adoption of a new law. In some countries, it is synonymous with a plebiscite or a vote on a ballot question.

Canada Country in North America

Canada is a country in the northern part of North America. Its ten provinces and three territories extend from the Atlantic to the Pacific and northward into the Arctic Ocean, covering 9.98 million square kilometres, making it the world's second-largest country by total area. Canada's southern border with the United States, stretching some 8,891 kilometres (5,525 mi), is the world's longest bi-national land border. Its capital is Ottawa, and its three largest metropolitan areas are Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. As a whole, Canada is sparsely populated, the majority of its land area being dominated by forest and tundra. Consequently, its population is highly urbanized, with over 80 percent of its inhabitants concentrated in large and medium-sized cities, with 70% of citizens residing within 100 kilometres (62 mi) of the southern border. Canada's climate varies widely across its vast area, ranging from arctic weather in the north, to hot summers in the southern regions, with four distinct seasons.

Prince Edward Island Province of Canada

Prince Edward Island is a province of Canada consisting of the Atlantic island of the same name along with several much smaller islands nearby. PEI is one of the three Maritime Provinces. It is the smallest province of Canada in both land area and population, but it is the most densely populated. Part of the traditional lands of the Mi'kmaq, it became a British colony in the 1700s and was federated into Canada as a province in 1873. Its capital is Charlottetown. According to the 2016 census, the province of PEI has 142,907 residents.

Contents

Despite a variety of voting options and a long voting period, the final 36.46% turnout was very low by PEI standards. [6] The province regularly gets more than 80% turnout in provincial general elections. [7] However, the only threshold defined for the plebiscite was that the result achieve the support of more than 50% of the valid votes, which it did. [8]

Voter turnout percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election

Voter turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. Eligibility varies by country, and the voting-eligible population should not be confused with the total adult population. Age and citizenship status are often among the criteria used to determine eligibility, but some countries further restrict eligibility based on sex, race, or religion.

Question

The official question on the ballot was:

"Rank the following electoral systems in your order of preference, 1 through 5 (with "1st Choice" being your most preferred and "5th choice" being your least preferred). You may choose as many, or as few, of the electoral system options as you want." [9]

The options were listed alphabetically on the ballot as:

Dual-member proportional representation (DMP), also known as dual-member mixed proportional, is an electoral system designed to produce proportional election results across a region by electing two representatives in each of the region’s districts. The 1st seat in every district is awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes, similar to first-past-the-post voting (FPTP). The 2nd seat is awarded to one of the remaining district candidates so that proportionality is achieved across the region, using a calculation that aims to award parties their seats in the districts where they had their strongest performances.

First-past-the-post voting voting system in which voters select one candidate, and the candidate who receives more votes than any other candidate wins

A first-past-the-post electoral system is one in which voters indicate on a ballot the candidate of their choice, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins. This is sometimes described as winner takes all. First-past-the-post voting is a plurality voting method. FPTP is a common, but not universal, feature of electoral systems with single-member electoral divisions, and is practised in close to one third of countries. Notable examples include Canada, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as most of their current or former colonies and protectorates.

Mixed-member proportional (MMP) representation is a mixed electoral system in which voters get two votes: one to decide the representative for their single-seat constituency, and one for a political party. Seats in the legislature are filled firstly by the successful constituency candidates, and secondly, by party candidates based on the percentage of nationwide or region-wide votes that each party received. The constituency representatives are elected using first-past-the-post voting (FPTP) or another plurality/majoritarian system. The nationwide or region-wide party representatives are, in most jurisdictions, drawn from published party lists, similar to party-list proportional representation. To gain a nationwide representative, parties may be required to achieve a minimum number of constituency candidates, a minimum percentage of the nationwide party vote, or both.

Results

The result of the plebiscite was found by using the Preferential Voting system, itself one of the options for elections being considered. Voters were given the opportunity to rank the five options from most preferred to least preferred, although they did not have to rank all five options. If more than half of the voters chose one option as their first choice, that option won; if no option captured a majority of first-choice votes, the winner was determined using instant-runoff voting. The option with the fewest votes was dropped, and those ballots were distributed to the other options based on the second choice on those ballots. This was repeated as necessary until one option had a majority of the votes cast. [10]

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) or Ranked choice voting (RCV) is a type of ranked preferential voting method used in single-seat elections with more than two candidates. Instead of indicating support for only one candidate, voters in IRV elections can rank the candidates in order of preference. Ballots are initially counted for each voter's top choice. If a candidate has more than half of the vote based on first-choices, that candidate wins. If not, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The voters who selected the defeated candidate as a first choice then have their votes added to the totals of their next choice. This process continues until a candidate has more than half of the votes. When the field is reduced to two, it has become an "instant runoff" that allows a comparison of the top two candidates head-to-head.

The referendum was non-binding on the government however.

Prince Edward Island electoral reform referendum, 2016 (final results) [11] 18,521 votes required to win
OptionFirst preferenceSecond iterationThird iterationLast iteration
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
First-Past-The-Post 11,56731.2213,10835.3814,46639.0515,86942.84
Mixed Member Proportional Representation 10,75729.0411,15330.1112,78034.5019,41852.42
Dual Member Proportional Representation 7,95121.468,22422.208,94824.15N/A
Preferential Voting 3,94410.644,21611.38N/A
First-Past-The-Post + Leaders2,8217.61N/A
Total Remaining Ballots37,040100.0036,70199.0836,19497.7235,28795.27
Exhausted Ballots - By Round003390.925071.379072.45
Exhausted Ballots - Cumulative003390.928462.441,7534.73
Total Ballots Cast37,040100.0037,040100.0037,040100.0037,040100.00

After four counts, the Mixed Member Proportional Representational option received a majority of the votes, followed by the existing first-past-the-post system. Voter turnout was low, at 36.46% [6] . However, the only threshold defined for the plebiscite was that the winner achieve the support of more than half of the valid votes, which MMP did [12] .

Voting eligibility and methods

This plebiscite marked several firsts in Canadian electoral history. Sixteen- and seventeen-year-old PEI residents were permitted to vote on the grounds that they will be aged eighteen (and therefore eligible to vote under normal election rules) in the next provincial election, which would potentially be held using the voting system that wins this plebiscite. As well, plebiscite voters were able to submit their votes online or via touch-tone telephone for the first time in a major Canadian vote. Internet and telephone voting was open from 12:00 noon Saturday 29 October 2016 and ran until 7:00 p.m. on Monday, 7 November 2016. [13] In-person voting was open in polling stations across the province on Friday, 4 November 2016, 4:00 p.m. - 9:00 p.m., and Saturday, 5 November 2016, 10:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. [14]

Aftermath

Premier Wade MacLauchlan said after the vote that he is doubtful the result of the referendum "can be said to constitute a clear expression of the will of Prince Edward Islanders" due to the unusually low turnout. [15] MacLauchlan did commit to discussing the results when the provincial legislature resumed on 15 November 2016; noting the need to examine the urban and rural breakdown of votes, among other issues. [16]

MacLauchlan's government introduced a motion in the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island to hold a second referendum on electoral reform at the next provincial general election, stating that the low turnout for the referendum did not provide a mandate to implement the change and the need for a more specific referendum question with two choices. [17] [18] A motion by Green Party leader Peter Bevan-Baker to implement mixed-member proportional representation in line with the referendum results was defeated on 22 November 2016 by a vote of 620. [19]

Next referendum scheduled for October 2019

The next Prince Edward Island electoral reform referendum is scheduled begin 29 October 2019 simultaneously with the 66th Prince Edward Island general election.

Notes

  1. Where members are elected with FPTP as before, but party leaders do not run for seats and are instead assigned an at-large seat if their party receives more than 10% of the popular vote

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References

  1. "Media Release: Voting locations". Is it Time for Change?. Elections Prince Edward Island. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
  2. "Voting begins in P.E.I. plebiscite on electoral reform". CBC News. Retrieved 29 October 2016.
  3. Roberts, Rob (7 July 2016). "PEI sets voting-reform plebiscite for fall". Toronto: The Globe and Mail . Retrieved 2 October 2016.
  4. McKenna, Peter (21 September 2016). "Electoral reform in P.E.I. redux". Charlottetown, PEI: The Guardian Charlottetown . Archived from the original on 3 October 2016. Retrieved 2 October 2016.
  5. Campbell, Kerry (16 April 2016). "P.E.I. electoral reform: 4 unanswered questions about the plebiscite". CBC. Archived from the original on 3 October 2016. Retrieved 2 October 2016.
  6. 1 2 3 Bradley, Susan (8 November 2016). "P.E.I. plebiscite results favour mixed member proportional representation". CBC News. Retrieved 8 November 2016.
  7. Yarr, Kevin (7 November 2016). "Voter turnout in electoral reform plebiscite remains low". CBC News. Retrieved 8 November 2016. Voter turnout in provincial general elections is typically above 80 per cent on P.E.I.
  8. http://www.electionspei.ca/plebisciteresults
  9. "The Ballot". Is it time for change?. Elections Prince Edward Island. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
  10. "How will the plebiscite be run?". "Is it time for change?". Elections Prince Edward Island. Retrieved 19 October 2016.
  11. Canada, Province of Prince Edward Island,. "Elections PEI: Plebiscite Results". www.electionspei.ca. Retrieved 8 November 2016.line feed character in |title= at position 27 (help)
  12. http://www.electionspei.ca/plebisciteresults
  13. "Internet & Telephone Voting". "Is it time for change?". Elections Prince Edward Island. Retrieved 19 October 2016.
  14. "In Person Voting". "Is it time for change?". Elections Prince Edward Island. Retrieved 19 October 2016.
  15. Sinclair, Jesara (8 November 2016). "Premier calls plebiscite results 'debatable,' cites low turnout". CBC News. Retrieved 11 November 2016.
  16. Wright, Teresa (8 November 2016). "'Debatable' vote, says P.E.I. Premier Wade MacLauchlan". The Guardian. Charlottetown. Retrieved 11 November 2016.
  17. "Motion No. 80, Democratic renewal: a clear question and a binding vote". www.assembly.pe.ca. Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island.
  18. Wright, Teresa (22 November 2016). "Motion urging P.E.I. government to honour electoral reform vote defeated". The Guardian. Charlottetown. Retrieved 25 November 2016.
  19. "Motion No. 54 , Plebiscite on electoral reform". www.assembly.pe.ca. Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island.