Strategic foresight

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Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight. [1] [2]

Contents

Definition and idea

Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. [3] Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. [4] [5] Scenario planning plays a prominent role in strategic foresight.

Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action. A consideration of possible futures (alternative futures) and of probable futures (forecasts, predictions) is important to developing a preferred future (plan), even the simple mental plans made prior to taking an action. [6] It is the job of the strategic foresight professional to make sure appropriately diverse and relevant inputs, forecasts, and alternatives are considered in the analysis, decision making and planning processes, that plans are appropriately communicated and that when actions are taken, appropriate feedback occurs and after action reviews take place to improve the foresight process. [7]

Strategic foresight is a growing practice in corporate foresight in large companies. [8] [1] [2] Its use is also growing in government and non-profit organisations. [9] [10] In recent years, researchers and managers have also elaborated more on the links between foresight and innovation management. [11]

Strategic foresight can be practiced at multiple levels, including:

  1. Personal – "Personal and professional goal-setting and action planning" [12]
  2. Organizational – "Carrying out tomorrows' business better" [13]
  3. Social – "Moving toward the next civilisation – the one that lies beyond the current hegemony of techno/industrial/capitalist interests" [14]

Quotes

"To manage ones expectations according to what is most predictable,act within reason, time is the measure of the function of all things that can be considered equally as important." Curtis Carpenter. Aphorism.

See also

Related Research Articles

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Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

Morphological analysis or general morphological analysis is a method for exploring possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Swiss astronomer Fritz Zwicky. General morphology has found use in fields including engineering design, technological forecasting, organizational development and policy analysis.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Futures studies</span> Study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures

Futures studies, futures research, futurism research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.

A technology roadmap is a flexible planning schedule to support strategic and long-range planning, by matching short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions. It is a plan that applies to a new product or process and may include using technology forecasting or technology scouting to identify suitable emerging technologies. It is a known technique to help manage the fuzzy front-end of innovation. It is also expected that roadmapping techniques may help companies to survive in turbulent environments and help them to plan in a more holistic way to include non-financial goals and drive towards a more sustainable development. Here roadmaps can be combined with other corporate foresight methods to facilitate systemic change.

In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:

Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions.

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Technology scouting is an element of technology management in which

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Foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy is an international bi-monthly journal published by the Emerald Publishing Group. The name connotes the term "foresight" as it is used in futures studies. Established in 1999, the journal provides a powerful framework and set of techniques that allow for understanding trends and drivers shaping the world, exploring alternative futures, setting priorities and formulating strategies for action. Foresight is a valuable source for futurists and foresight practitioners who should be at the forefront of discovering practical ways to manage 21st century life under growing complexity with a long-term perspective. The journal offers a much-needed forum for sound thinking about the future and socio-technological innovations, and focuses on themes and issues shaping the future, new quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as case studies with novel approaches. The journal is edited by Prof.Dr. Ozcan Saritas since 2009.

Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding undesired futures. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Noah Raford</span> American futurist

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The Trend Receiver Concept is a method for developing Customer Foresight and has been overall identified as an approach to develop foresight. At the core of the Trend Receiver Concept is the identification of suitable conversation partners, so called Trend Receivers, when developing foresight on the future demands and habits of consumers.

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William E. Halal is an American aerospace engineer, air force officer, academic, author, consultant, and speaker. He is Professor Emeritus of Management, Technology & Innovation at George Washington University as well as the Founder and President of TechCast, a web-based system that uses knowledge to forecast breakthroughs on emerging technologies and social trends.

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References

  1. 1 2 Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, Springer, ISBN   978-3-7908-2625-8
  2. 1 2 Rohrbeck, René; Mahdjour, Sarah; Knab, Sebastian; Frese, Tobias (2009-07-01). "Benchmarking Report: Strategic Foresight in Multinational Companies". Rochester, NY. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1470050. SSRN   1470050.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  3. ↑ Gerry., Johnson (2008). Exploring corporate strategy : text and cases. Scholes, Kevan., Whittington, Richard, 1958- (8th ed.). Harlow: FT Prentice Hall. ISBN   9780273711919. OCLC   316418838.
  4. ↑ Coates, Joseph; Durance, Philippe; Godet, Michel (2010). "Strategic Foresight Issue: Introduction". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77 (9): 1423–1425. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.08.001.
  5. ↑ Gavetti, Giovanni; Menon, Anoop (2016-09-01). "Evolution Cum Agency: Toward a Model of Strategic Foresight". Strategy Science. 1 (3): 207–233. doi: 10.1287/stsc.2016.0018 . ISSN   2333-2050.
  6. ↑ Amara, Roy (1974). "The futures field: Functions, forms, and critical issues". Futures. 6 (4): 289–301. doi:10.1016/0016-3287(74)90072-x.
  7. ↑ Rohrbeck, René; Battistella, Cinzia; Huizingh, Eelko (2015). "Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 1–9. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.002.
  8. ↑ Oliver Schwarz, Jan (2008). "Assessing the future of futures studies in management". Futures. 40 (3): 237–246. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018.
  9. ↑ Heger, Tobias; Boman, Magnus (2015). "Networked foresight—The case of EIT ICT Labs". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 147–164. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.002 .
  10. ↑ Harper, Jennifer Cassingena; Cuhls, Kerstin; Georghiou, Luke; Johnston, Ron (2008-05-01). "Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy". Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 20 (3): 267–269. doi:10.1080/09537320801997193. ISSN   0953-7325. S2CID   7047752.
  11. ↑ von der Gracht, Heiko; Vennemann, Robert; Darkow, Inga-Lena (2010). "Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development". Futures - the Journal of Policy Planning and Futures Studies. 42 (4): 380–393. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023.
  12. ↑ Morrisey, George L. (1992), Creating Your Future: Personal Strategic Planning for Professionals, Berrett Koehler, San Francisco, CA.
  13. ↑ Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C.K. (1994), Competing for the Future, Harvard Business School Press, Boston MA.
  14. ↑ Slaughter, Richard A. (2004), Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight, RoutledgeFarmer, London, UK. ISBN   978-0-415-30270-8; p. 217
  15. ↑ Richard, Slaughter (1999). Futures for the third millennium : enabling the forward view. St Leonards, N.S.W.: Prospect. ISBN   9781863161480. OCLC   43628902.

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