| Futures studies |
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Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is a future research theory that integrates various epistemic modes, creates spaces for alternative futures, and consists of four layers: Litany, Social and Structural, Worldview, and Myth/Metaphor. [1] [2] [3] The method was created by Sohail Inayatullah, a Pakistani-Australian futures studies researcher. [4]
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is a theory and method that seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical, and action learning modes of research. In this method, forecasts, the meanings individuals give to these forecasts, the critical assumptions used, the narratives these are based on, and the actions and interventions that result are all valued and explored in CLA. This is true for both the external material world and the inner psychological world. As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future per se, as in creating transformative spaces for the analysis and the creation of alternative futures. It is also useful in developing more robust, efficient, and effective—deeper, inclusive, longer term—policy and strategy. A CLA framework facilitates a deep understanding the layers of complex and intersectional issues [1] .The inner work leads not only to the reflective practitioner but ensures epistemological mindfulness. We enter the room aware that we are part of the problem or solution, that our stories can help or hurt. CLA of the self, for me, is a way to help others find ways out of current predicaments. [5]
CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for Futures that would come to be widely cited. [4] Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader [7] , CLA Reader 2.0 [8] and CLA 3.0 [5] that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA. [7]
CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003. [9]
CLA was conceived in the early 1990s by Dr. Sohail Inayatullah, [4] [2] [7] a political scientist and futurist. Inayatullah sought to create a method that went beyond traditional forecasting techniques, which often focused solely on surface-level trends and data. His aim was to delve deeper into the underlying causes and narratives that shape our understanding of the future. Since its development, CLA has been applied in various fields, including business strategy, public policy, and educational reform . It has been particularly influential in the Asia-Pacific region, with Inayatullah himself based in Australia and conducting numerous workshops and training sessions across the region. Sohail Inaytullah’s work on CLA has led to numerous academic publications, and his approach has been recognized for its innovative contribution to the field and has been integrated into future studies courses and programs worldwide.
CLA continues to evolve, with Inayatullah and others in the field expanding its application and refining its methodologies. It is increasingly being combined with other futures methodologies to address complex and multifaceted challenges. CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003. [9] and the development of Causal Layered Analysis represents a significant advancement in the way we think about and plan for the future, offering a more nuanced and in-depth approach than traditional methods.
The future is the time after the past and present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently exists and will exist can be categorized as either permanent, meaning that it will exist forever, or temporary, meaning that it will end. In the Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected timeline that is anticipated to occur. In special relativity, the future is considered absolute future, or the future light cone.
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
Morphological analysis or general morphological analysis is a method for exploring possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Swiss astronomer Fritz Zwicky.
Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar, also known by his spiritual name Shrii Shrii Ánandamúrti, and known as Bábá ("Father") to his disciples, was a spiritual guru, philosopher, social reformer, linguist, author and composer of 5,018 songs mostly in the Bengali language. He founded Ananda Marga in 1955 as a spiritual and social organisation that continues to offer instruction in meditation and yoga. and runs numerous social service and disaster relief projects throughout the world.
Ziauddin Sardar is a British-Pakistani scholar, award-winning writer, cultural critic and public intellectual who specialises in Muslim thought, the future of Islam, futurology and science and cultural relations. The author and editor of more than 50 books, Prospect magazine has named him as one of Britain's top 100 public intellectuals and The Independent newspaper calls him: 'Britain's own Muslim polymath'.
Futurists are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Erich Jantsch was an Austrian-born American astrophysicist, engineer, educator, author, consultant and futurist, especially known for his work in the social systems design movement in Europe in the 1970s.
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning. Some of the anticipatory methods include, the delphi method, causal layered analysis, environmental scanning, morphological analysis, and scenario planning.
The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) was founded in 2002 to validate the competencies of emerging futurists. As analysts, speakers, managers or consultants, APF's credentialed members cultivate strategic foresight for their organizations and clients. APF represents the professional side of the futures movement, while groups such as the World Futures Studies Federation, the World Future Society or The Millennium Project, represent its academic, popular, and activists expressions, respectively.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:
Cross-impact analysis is a methodology developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer in 1966 to help determine how relationships between events would impact resulting events and reduce uncertainty in the future. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) became interested in the methodology in the late 1960s and early 1970s as an analytic technique for predicting how different factors and variables would impact future decisions. In the mid-1970s, futurists began to use the methodology in larger numbers as a means to predict the probability of specific events and determine how related events impacted one another. By 2006, cross-impact analysis matured into a number of related methodologies with uses for businesses and communities as well as futurists and intelligence analysts.
Emerging issues analysis is a term used in futures studies and strategic planning, to describe the process of identifying and studying issues that have not been influential or important in the past, but that might be influential in the future. Since the issues identified in EIA are new, we cannot rely on their history to predict how they will influence the future. This distinguishes EIA from trend analysis. Trend analysis is used for issues where we have historical data that can be used to identify a trend, that can then be extrapolated to the future.
Sohail Inayatullah is a Pakistani-born Australian academic, futures studies researcher and a professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, Taiwan.
Fourth bottom line is a concept extended from the triple bottom line; instead of simply focusing on the 3 Ps: people, planet and profit, this concept involves extending to a fourth factor which not only has motivation for a business but also transcends to a humanistic value and beyond by factoring in terms such as "spirituality", "ethics", "purpose", "culture", "compassion".
The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California, US–based not-for-profit think tank. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as futures studies.
Andy Hines is an American futurist, head of graduate studies in Foresight at the University of Houston, and author of several books on strategic foresight. Hines is a professional futurist, co-creator of the framework foresight method, Assistant Professor and Program Coordinator of the Graduate Program in Foresight at the University of Houston, Principal of foresight consulting firm Hinesight, and former organizational futurist at Kellogg Company and Dow Chemical. He has written extensively on futures studies, strategic foresight, foresight research methods, the role of organizational futurists, and the consumer landscape.
Erzsébet Nováky 2005. Academic Award. Erzsébet Nováky, Doctor of Economics, Professor, dedicated futurist since 1970, Head of the Department of Futures Research at the University of Economics 1992-2012. Corvinus University of Budapest, professor emeritus (2015).
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences. It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.