The Delphi method or Delphi technique is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
Futurists are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
Futures studies, futures research or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning. Some of the anticipatory methods include, the delphi method, causal layered analysis, environmental scanning, morphological analysis, and scenario planning.
Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:
Technology scouting is an element of technology management in which
Corporate foresight has been conceptualised as a set of practices, a set of capabilities and an ability of a firm. It enables firms to detect discontinuous change early, interpret its consequences for the firm, and inform future courses of action to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.
Real-time Delphi (RTD) is an advanced form of the Delphi method. The advanced method “is a consultative process that uses computer technology” to increase efficiency of the Delphi process.
In psychology, prospection is the generation and evaluation of mental representations of possible futures. The term therefore captures a wide array of future-oriented psychological phenomena, including the prediction of future emotion, the imagination of future scenarios, and planning. Prospection is central to various aspects of human cognition and motivation. Daniel Gilbert (psychologist) and Timothy Wilson coined the term in 2007. It has since become a central area of enquiry in the cognitive sciences.
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, and critical design.
Design fiction is a design practice aiming at exploring and criticising possible futures by creating speculative, and often provocative, scenarios narrated through designed artifacts. It is a way to facilitate and foster debates, as explained by futurist Scott Smith: "... design fiction as a communication and social object creates interactions and dialogues around futures that were missing before. It helps make it real enough for people that you can have a meaningful conversation with".
The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California, US–based not-for-profit think tank. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as futures studies.
Futures & Foresight Science is an academic journal published by Wiley. The journal publishes articles dedicated to advancing methods that aid anticipating the future. The journal was established in 2019 by Professor George Wright, University of Strathclyde, Professor George Cairns, Queensland University of Technology and Professor Heiko von der Gracht, Steinbeis University Berlin.
Noah Raford is an American futurist and specialist in public policy, strategy and emerging technologies. He is a founding executive of the Dubai Future Foundationand the Museum of the Future, and is currently the Futurist-in-Chief and Chief of Global Affairs at the Dubai Future Foundation. He was responsible for several global and regional firsts, including the world's first fully functional 3D printed building and the first blockchain strategy in the MENA region.
Customer foresight is a new field of applied research. It aims to understand future consumer preferences and wishes with regard to tomorrow's products and services. It does so by combining customer research and foresight research elements. Customer foresight can be conceived as an interaction with projected future markets through selected customers by understanding their wishes and attitudes, ideas and visions as well as their perception of signals and drivers of change. Even though the concept cannot predict the future, it enables companies to prepare for different future scenarios and thus improves strategy and decision-making processes.
Horizon scanning (HS) or also horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Such domains include agriculture, environmental studies, health care, biosecurity, and food safety.
