Futures studies |
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Concepts |
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Technology assessment and forecasting |
Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. [1] It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. [2] [3] [4] Such domains include agriculture, [5] environmental studies, [6] health care, [7] biosecurity, [2] and food safety. [8]
Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES), [9] or view HS as a subset of ES, [10] or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS. [11] In summary, ES has key differences to HS. [12] ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment. [13] [14] [15]
One of the first usages of the term horizon scanning as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005. [16] Then, horizon scanning was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European workshop in September 1997, whose participants were 27 policy makers and researchers from 12 countries. [7] This workshop was organized as a part of the European health technology assessment project (HTA). [7] Policy makers and planners of health services were the main target groups for knowledge produced by horizon scanning. [7]
Year | Source | Definition |
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2002 | Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs | Horizon scanning is "the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning’ and, continuing, horizon scanning ‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends." [17] |
2004 | UK Government's Chief Scientific Advisor's Committee | "Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments including – but not restricted to – those that are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends." [18] |
2015 | Report by Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research and VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland for the European Commission | "Horizon Scanning is the systematic outlook to detect early signs of potentially important developments. These can be weak (or early) signals, trends, wild cards or other developments, persistent problems, risks and threats, including matters at the margins of current thinking that challenge past assumptions." [19] |
2019 | OECD | Horizon scanning is "a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand." [20] |
A 2013 systematic study of 23 formally established health technology HS programs from different countries identified following common phases in a horizon scanning process: [21]
Horizon scanning shares common methods with future-oriented technology analysis. [22] [23] Horizon scanning includes following techniques: [6] [21]
Technique | Example |
---|---|
Interviews | Environmental Research Funders Forum Horizon Scanning Study [24] |
Issue tree | Foresight project on Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs [25] |
Literature searches and state-of-science reviews | Medical Technology Horizon Scanning [26] |
Expert workshops | Horizon scan of conservation issues in UK. [27] Assessment of 100 ecological questions of highest priority to global conservation. [28] |
Open fora | Future Wiki [29] |
Delphi questionnaire | 50 key issues for the future of Mediterranean wetlands [30] |
Trend analysis | HSTOOL – semiautomatic discovery of scientific trends from clusters of publications [31] |
Scenarios [32] | Wildlife Conservation Societies’ Futures of the Wild [33] |
Systems/Maps | Foresight project on Tackling Obesities: Future Choices [34] |
Backcasting |
European commission developed the Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) in 2017, an open-access transport information system supporting the implementation of the seven Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA) roadmaps. [35] In 2021, a horizon scanning module was added to TRIMIS. [36] This horizon scanning framework developed by Joint Research Centre within TRIMIS uses news media, scientific publication sources, patent data sources, EU funding datasets and other sources as basis for text mining.
Joint Research Centre's "Tool for Innovation Monitoring" augments horizon scanning with text mining of available literature. [37] This tool is developed in 2020. Among the used data sources are Scopus, PATSTAT and Cordis.
Umweltbundesamt applies horizon scanning since 2012 along with trend analysis. [38]
In the Russian Federation, horizon scanning is performed by Higher School of Economics and financed by Ministry of Education and Science. [39] In 2012, Putin stated that "[a] Foresight exercise for Russia’s science and technology towards 2030 is due to be completed. It highlights specific ways to both revitalize traditional sectors and penetrate into new high-tech markets…". Russian horizon scanning team consisted of 15–20 members and conducted an online survey of 2000 experts.
Swedish Defence Research Agency has developed a software tool named HSTOOL for HS of scientific literature in 2019. [40] The scientific literature is searched, clustered in groups that correspond to subject subfields and evaluated based on the bibliometric numbers. The clustering is performed using Gibbs sampling Dirichlet multinomial mixture model algorithm. The citation statistics are provided derived from Thomson Reuters' Web of Science.
In order to centralize horizon scanning, UK has founded the English Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) in 2005. [41] The Cabinet Office's Horizon Scanning Secretariat and the Government Office for Science's Horizon Scanning Centre were combined to the Horizon Scanning Programme team in 2014. [42]
In 2010, The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) established the first publicly funded Healthcare Horizon Scanning program of the US. [43]
The Foresight Institute (Foresight) is a San Francisco-based research non-profit that promotes the development of nanotechnology and other emerging technologies, such as safe AGI, biotech and longevity.
The Delphi method or Delphi technique is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.
Futurists are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:
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Market environment and business environment are marketing terms that refer to factors and forces that affect a firm's ability to build and maintain successful customer relationships. The business environment has been defined as "the totality of physical and social factors that are taken directly into consideration in the decision-making behaviour of individuals in the organisation."
The Government Office for Science is a science advisory office in the UK Government. The office advises the Government on policy and decision-making based on science and long-term thinking. It has been led by Professor Dame Angela McLean, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, since 23 February 2023.
Luke Georghiou is Deputy President and Deputy Vice-Chancellor at the University of Manchester. He is also professor of science and technology policy and management at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research at Manchester Business School.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:
Technology scouting is an element of technology management in which
Corporate foresight has been conceptualised by strategic foresight practitioners and academics working and/or studying corporations as a set of practices, a set of capabilities and an ability of a firm. It enables firms to detect discontinuous change early, interpret its consequences for the firm, and inform future courses of action to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, and critical design.
Sohail Inayatullah is a Pakistani-born Australian academic, futures studies researcher and a professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, Taiwan.
The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California, US–based not-for-profit think tank. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as futures studies.
The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research is part of the Fraunhofer Society for the promotion of Applied Research e.V. (FhG), Europe’s largest application-oriented research organization. The institute is based in Karlsruhe. It conducts applied research and development on innovation in engineering, economics, the natural sciences and social sciences. The Fraunhofer ISI is one of the leading institutes for innovation research in Europe.
Ethics of nanotechnology is the study of the ethical issues emerging from advances in nanotechnology and its impacts.
The Trend Receiver Concept is a method for developing Customer Foresight and has been overall identified as an approach to develop foresight. At the core of the Trend Receiver Concept is the identification of suitable conversation partners, so called Trend Receivers, when developing foresight on the future demands and habits of consumers.
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences. It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.
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