| Futures studies |
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| Concepts |
| Techniques |
| Technology assessment and forecasting |
Science fiction prototyping (SFP) refers to the idea of using science fiction to describe and explore the implications of futuristic technologies and the social structures enabled by them. [1] [2] Similar terms are design fiction, speculative design, and critical design. [3]
The idea was introduced by Brian David Johnson in 2010 who, at the time, was a futurist at Intel working on the challenge his company faced anticipating the market needs for integrated circuits at the end of their 7–10 years design and production cycle. [4] [5] The roots for Science Fiction Prototyping can be traced back to two papers, the first by Callaghan et-al [6] “Pervasive Computing and Urban Development: Issues for the individual and Society”, presented at the 2004 United Nations World Urban Forum which used short stories as a means to convey potential future threats of technology to society and the second, by Egerton et-al [7] "Using Multiple Personas In Service Robots To Improve Exploration Strategies When Mapping New Environments" describing multiple personas and irrational thinking for humanoid robots which inspired Brian David Johnson to write the first Science Fiction Prototype, Nebulous Mechanisms, [8] which went on to become a series of stories that eventually morphed into Intel's 21st Century Robot project. [9] Together Johnson, Callaghan and Egerton formed the Creative Science Foundation as a vehicle to promote and support the use of Science Fiction Prototyping and its derivatives. The first public Science Fiction Prototyping event was Creative Science 2010 [10] (not to be confused with Creation Science), held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 19 July 2010. This event was also significant as it included the Science Fiction Prototype Tales From a Pod [11] which became the first Science Fiction Prototype to be commercialised (by Immersive Displays Ltd, ImmersaVU [12] ). In 2011, a second Science Fiction Prototyping workshop was held in Nottingham (UK), Creative Science 2011, [13] in which Intel made the first documentary about this methodology. Shortly afterwards the Creative Science Foundation was formed as an umbrella organisation to manage Science Fiction Prototyping activity, leading to a proliferation of events and publications; a more detailed account is provided on the Science Fiction Prototyping History web pages. [14]
The core methodology is the use of creative arts as a means to introduce innovations into science, engineering, business and socio-political systems. It doesn't aim to forecast the future, rather it focuses on inventing or innovating the future by extrapolating forward trends from research or foresight activities (creating new concepts, schemes, services and products). The main (but not exclusive) methodology is the use of science-fiction stories, grounded in existing practice which are written for the explicit purpose of acting as prototypes for people to explore a wide variety of futures. These 'science fiction prototypes' (SFPs) can be created by scientists, engineers, business or socio-political professionals to stretch their work or, for example, by writers, film/stage directors, school children and members of the public to influence the work of professionals. In this way these stories act as a way of involving the widest section of the population to help set the research agenda. Johnson advocates the following five step process for writing Science Fiction Prototypes: [4]
Full Science Fiction Prototypes are about 6–12 pages long, with a popular structure being: an introduction, background work, the fictional story (the bulk of the SFP), a short summary and a summary (reflection). Most often science fiction prototypes extrapolate current science forward and, therefore, include a set of references at the end. Such prototypes can take several days to write and for situations where ideas need to be generated faster (e.g. meetings), the concept of micro science fiction prototypes (µSFP) is used. [11] Generally, µSFP are the size of a Twitter or Text message, being around 25–30 words (140–160 characters in standard English).
Science fiction prototyping has a number of applications. The most obvious is for product innovation, in which the two earliest examples are Intel's 21st Century Robot (an open innovation project to develop a domestic robot) and Essex University's eDesk (a mixed-reality immersive education desk) [15] both of which were introduced in the previous section. Beyond product innovation, science fiction prototyping finds itself being applied to many diverse areas. For example, at the University of Washington (USA) they have used it to facilitate broader contextual and societal thinking about computers, computer security risks, and security defense as part of an optional senior-level course in computer security. [16] In 2014, [17] these ideas were refined into a SFP methodology called Threatcasting with early adopters including the United States Air Force Academy, the Government of California, and the Army Cyber Institute at West Point Military Academy. An earlier variation called Futurcasting was used by government to provide a tool to influence the direction of society and politics. It did this by using stories about possible futures as a medium to engage the population in conversations about futures they would like to encourage or avoid. Science Fiction Prototyping is also being used in business environments. For example, in Canterbury Christ Church University (UK) Business School it is being used as a vehicle to introduce creative thinking in support of entrepreneurship courses. In the National Taiwan University (Taiwan), it is used to increase business school students' interests in science and technology for business innovation. [18] Elsewhere the Business Schools of the universities of Leeds and Manchester (UK) are exploring its use in community development projects. [19] Finally, it is being applied to Education. For example, in San-Diego State University (USA) Department of Learning Design and Technology they have explored it as a means for motivating pre-university students to take up STEM studies and careers. [20] Further afield, in China, they have identified a novel use for the methodology to address the mandatory requirement for all science and engineering students to take a course in English language. In particular Shijiazhuang University (China) are exploring the potential for Science Fiction Prototyping to overcome the dullness that some science students experience in language learning by using it as an integrated platform for teaching Computer English, combining language and science learning. [21] China is also concerned to improve the creative and innovation capabilities of their graduate which this approach supports.
Federico Faggin is an Italian physicist, engineer, inventor and entrepreneur. He is best known for designing the first commercial microprocessor, the Intel 4004. He led the 4004 (MCS-4) project and the design group during the first five years of Intel's microprocessor effort. Faggin also created, while working at Fairchild Semiconductor in 1968, the self-aligned MOS (metal-oxide-semiconductor) silicon-gate technology (SGT), which made possible MOS semiconductor memory chips, CCD image sensors, and the microprocessor. After the 4004, he led development of the Intel 8008 and 8080, using his SGT methodology for random logic chip design, which was essential to the creation of early Intel microprocessors. He was co-founder and CEO of Zilog, the first company solely dedicated to microprocessors, and led the development of the Zilog Z80 and Z8 processors. He was later the co-founder and CEO of Cygnet Technologies, and then Synaptics.
Futurists are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
Human-centered computing (HCC) studies the design, development, and deployment of mixed-initiative human-computer systems. It is emerged from the convergence of multiple disciplines that are concerned both with understanding human beings and with the design of computational artifacts. Human-centered computing is closely related to human-computer interaction and information science. Human-centered computing is usually concerned with systems and practices of technology use while human-computer interaction is more focused on ergonomics and the usability of computing artifacts and information science is focused on practices surrounding the collection, manipulation, and use of information.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Service design is the activity of planning and arranging people, infrastructure, communication and material components of a service in order to improve its quality, and the interaction between the service provider and its users. Service design may function as a way to inform changes to an existing service or create a new service entirely.
King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is a governmental organization established in 1977 as the Saudi Arabian National Center for Science & Technology (SANCST); in 1985, it was renamed King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology.
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning. Some of the anticipatory methods include, the delphi method, causal layered analysis, environmental scanning, morphological analysis, and scenario planning.
Emerging technologies are technologies whose development, practical applications, or both are still largely unrealized. These technologies are generally new but also include older technologies finding new applications. Emerging technologies are often perceived as capable of changing the status quo.
Design thinking refers to the set of cognitive, strategic and practical procedures used by designers in the process of designing, and to the body of knowledge that has been developed about how people reason when engaging with design problems.
Intelligent Environments (IE) are spaces with embedded systems and information and communication technologies creating interactive spaces that bring computation into the physical world and enhance occupants experiences. "Intelligent environments are spaces in which computation is seamlessly used to enhance ordinary activity. One of the driving forces behind the emerging interest in highly interactive environments is to make computers not only genuine user-friendly but also essentially invisible to the user".
The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to artificially intelligent systems. It is sometimes divided into a concern with the moral behavior of humans as they design, make, use and treat artificially intelligent systems, and a concern with the behavior of machines, in machine ethics.
Robotics is an interdisciplinary branch of electronics and communication, computer science and engineering. Robotics involves the design, construction, operation, and use of robots. The goal of robotics is to design machines that can help and assist humans. Robotics integrates fields of mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, information engineering, mechatronics engineering, electronics, biomedical engineering, computer engineering, control systems engineering, software engineering, mathematics, etc.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to robotics:
Living labs are open innovation ecosystems in real-life environments using iterative feedback processes throughout a lifecycle approach of an innovation to create sustainable impact. They focus on co-creation, rapid prototyping & testing and scaling-up innovations & businesses, providing joint-value to the involved stakeholders. In this context, living labs operate as intermediaries/orchestrators among citizens, research organisations, companies and government agencies/levels.
Genevieve Bell is an Australian cultural anthropologist, best known for her work at the intersection of cultural practice research and technological development, and for being an industry pioneer of the user experience field. Bell was the inaugural director of the Autonomy, Agency and Assurance Innovation Institute (3Ai), which was co-founded by the Australian National University (ANU) and CSIRO’s Data61, and a Distinguished Professor of the ANU College of Engineering and Computer Science. In 2021, she became Director of the new ANU School of Cybernetics. She also holds the university's Florence Violet McKenzie Chair, and is the first SRI International Engelbart Distinguished Fellow. Bell is also a Senior Fellow and Vice President at Intel. She is widely published, and holds 13 patents.
Design fiction is a design practice aiming at exploring and criticising possible futures by creating speculative, and often provocative, scenarios narrated through designed artifacts. It is a way to facilitate and foster debates, as explained by futurist Scott Smith: "... design fiction as a communication and social object creates interactions and dialogues around futures that were missing before. It helps make it real enough for people that you can have a meaningful conversation with".
The Creative Science Foundation (CSf) is a non-profit organization, established on 4 November 2011 in London, England, that advocates a synergetic relationship between creative arts and sciences as a means to fostering innovation. It is best known for its use of science fiction prototyping as an ideation, communication and prototyping tool for product innovation. The foundation's main modus-operandi are the organisation or sponsorship of vacation-schools, workshops, seminars, conferences, journals, publications and projects.
Micro-SFP (µSFP) describes an ultra-short science-fiction story written for the specific purpose of capturing inventive ideas for product or service innovations. It is a combination of three concepts, first science-fiction prototyping, second flash fiction and finally, Twitter and texting.
Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding undesired futures. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future.