Future-oriented technology analysis

For other uses of "FTA", see FTA (disambiguation).

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences. ^{[1] [2]} It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym. ^{[1] [3]}

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning. ^{[4] [5]}

Definitions

Year	Definition
2004	Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry." [6]
2013	Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations." [7]

Methods

Methods and their families ^[8]

Method	Family
Agent based modeling	Modeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy process	Valuing/decision/economic
Backcasting	Descriptive and matrices
Bibliometrics	Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics
Brainstorming	Creativity
Cross impact analysis	Modeling and simulation, Statistics
Delphi	Expert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analyses	Valuing/decision/economic
Relevance tree	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysis	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Roadmapping	Descriptive and matrices
Scenarios	Scenarios
Social impact assessment	Descriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysis	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysis	Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamics	Modeling and simulation
Technology assessment	Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZ	Creativity

References

1. Filip, F. G.; Dragomirescu, H.; Predescu, R.; Ilie, R. (2004). "IT tools for foresight studies". Studies in Informatics and Control (13): 161-168.
2. "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods" . Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN   0040-1625. S2CID   18904868.
3. Sánchez-Torres, J. M.; Miles, I. (16 December 2017). "The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review". European Journal of Futures Research. 5 (1): 15. doi: 10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7 . ISSN   2195-2248. S2CID   9744177.
4. Eerola, A.; Miles, I. (1 April 2011). "Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective" . Futures. 43 (3): 265–278. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005. ISSN   0016-3287.
5. Tagiew, Rustam; Witzler, Sebastian; Portier, Martin (14 July 2022). "Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility". Social Science Research Network. SSRN   4151745.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
6. "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods" . Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN   0040-1625. S2CID   18904868.
7. Cagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan (1 March 2013). "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80 (3): 379–385. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001. ISSN   0040-1625. S2CID   60530892.
8. "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods" . Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN   0040-1625. S2CID   18904868.