Sundeep Waslekar is the President of Strategic Foresight Group. Ilmas Futehally is the Vice President and Executive Director.[1]
History
The founding of SFG coincided with a period of oscillating developments in India-Pakistan relations. SFG produced an assessment of the cost of conflict between the two countries. India's then External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, in a suo moto letter addressed to the President of SFG, described it as a valuable tool for the practitioners of foreign policy. SFG went on to undertake a similar exercise for Sri Lanka. This report too attracted considerable attention.[2] In 2005, its report, The Final Settlement[3] created a public debate; for the first time it identified the centrality of the water dimension in the India-Pakistan relations.[4] It was translated into Urdu as well as Marathi.
In 2004, SFG convened a roundtable to prepare a common intellectual framework for deconstructing terror. Since then SFG has been invited by Prime Ministers, Ministers of Foreign Affairs and governments of several countries in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East for policy consultations.[7] In June 2005, SFG and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe, jointly convened a roundtable at the European Parliament, Brussels, involving serving and former cabinet ministers and parliamentarians from the Middle East and Europe. The roundtable adopted the Brussels Consensus on the principles and policies for a safer world. At the roundtable, Dr. Wolfgang Gerhardt, Chairman of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, said "Strategic Foresight Group has a track record in exploring value-based working solutions to the problems of society. This is their intention here (at the 3rd Roundtable). It is also our intention at the FNSt."[8]
About 40 leaders from Europe, Asia and the Middle East participated in the Roundtable. They included serving cabinet ministers, former ministers, leaders of parliamentary groups, special envoys of the heads of multilateral organisations and directors of important institutions. The distinguished group recommended an Inclusive Semi Permanent Conference on Peace in the Middle East, Western Islamic Dialogue and Engagement Initiative, International Historical Study Group on Common Human Civilisation, Arab Islamic Renaissance Initiative and the promotion of the Compact of Dialogue-Democracy-Development. The Roundtable welcomed the Report of the High Level Group of the Alliance of Civilizations of the United Nations.
At the beginning of 2007 Strategic Foresight Group brought out its global research report An Inclusive World: in which the West, Islam and the Rest have a stake. Prof Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Foreign Minister of Israel describes this "as the most comprehensive approach to solve the crisis of our time that has ever been proposed." Prof Kamel Abu Jaber, former Foreign Minister of Jordan, calls it "hope in an otherwise hopeless international system." The philosophy of An Inclusive World could be subject of a new global debate to overcome the divides at the beginning of the 21st century. The report was debated by Oxford University at one of the famous Oxford Union debates in May. It also featured three times in the debates at the House of Commons. The European Parliament and the League of Arab States circulated it widely among their members. It was translated into Arabic by the Bibliotheca Alexandrina based in Alexandria, Egypt.
Speaking on the Middle East at the World Economic Forum's Middle East Summit, Sundeep Waslekar said that the region's primary risk is a "triple deficit" – a democratization deficit combined with a development deficit leads to a dignity deficit, often manifested in instability and violence.
One of the main conclusions of the Third International Roundtable was a proposal for the Inclusive Semi Permanent Conference for the Middle East. In 2008 SFG brought out a position paper on this subject, which was launched at the House of Lords in May 2008.
2008: Peace and Security
In 2008, SFG continued its work in the Cost of conflict series, this time focussing on the Middle East,[10] in alignment with its other work. The report on Cost of Conflict in the Middle East was launched at the United Nations office in Geneva in January 2009. It featured in floor debates in the House of Commons and House of Lords. It was discussed by a panel of ministers and senior diplomats at the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations when the latter hosted its forum in Istanbul in April 2009. The report was also discussed at the World Economic Forum Middle East summit at the Dead Sea in May 2009. It has since featured in several hundred newspapers, websites and blogs.[11][12]
In 2008, SFG came out with a report on 20 trends that would affect global security and economy in the next 20 years.[13]
In June 2008, SFG expanded the scope of its work with an international conference on Responsibility to the Future. It was co-hosted by the United Nations Global Compact, inaugurated by the President of India and attended by experts from 25 countries. Following the recommendations of the conference, SFG decided to address issues of water security in Asia[14] and the Middle East.
2009–2014: Water security
In 2009, SFG decided to focus on preventing conflicts arising out of resource scarcity, with focus on water.
An international workshop on Water Stress and Climate Change in the Himalayan River Basins was organised in August 2009 in Kathmandu bringing together experts and policy makers on water issues from China, Nepal, Bangladesh and India.[15] The Second International Workshop was held in Dhaka in January 2010. It resulted in the Dhaka Declaration on Water Security.[16]
The Dhaka Declaration highlights the significance of the rivers that flow from the Himalayas and the urgent need for cooperation between Basin countries. It has been predicted that due to the combined effect of melting of glaciers, extreme weather events and pollution, the rivers in the Eastern Himalayas will lose their flow from anywhere from 5 to 20 percent by 2050. This will have affect river flows mostly in the lean period, undermining plans to produce hydroelectricity and promote inland water navigation in the region.
The Dhaka Declaration proposes an exchange of scientific data, particularly in the low flow period and joint research projects. It underscores the risk of conflicts due to water scarcity and floods leading to migration on a large scale. A report titled The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia[17][18][19] was published in June 2010. This report is the first of its kind which evaluates future water balance and risks in India, China, Nepal and Bangladesh until the year 2030. A second report titled Himalayan Solutions was published in January 2011.
In February 2010, an international initiative on Water Security in the Middle East was launched at Montreux, Switzerland, on 15–16 February, with two workshops attracting the participation of 60 leading policymakers, including members of Parliament, former Cabinet Ministers, senior leaders of Water Commissions and heads of research institutions from across the Middle East. In preparation for the workshops, SFG had held consultations with leaders in the Middle East, and distinguished experts from several countries in the region.[20] A workshop was held in Sanliurfa, a town in Turkey close to the Syrian border to discuss collaborative solutions to the issue of water security in the Middle East. Participants at the level of former Ministers and heads of Departments in Water Ministries participated in the workshop. A report titled The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water was launched by the President of Switzerland, Micheline Calmy-Rey.[21][22][23][24][25]
In 2012, SFG began addressing the issue of sustainable and collaborative solutions to the Nile River Basin in Africa. The Nile has been governed by agreements that date back to colonial times and give Egypt and Sudan majority share of water. The Nile Basin Countries have drafted a new Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) to replace the old agreements. This has created tensions between riparian countries. SFG organised a workshop in Zurich in early 2012 bringing together members of parliaments, diplomats and scholars from these regions to discuss current and future prospects for the River. It published a report Blue Peace for the Nile[27] which was launched on 22 March 2013, that also happens to be World Water Day.
HRH Hassan bin Talal, Chairman of the United Nations Secretary General’s Advisory Board on Water and Sanitation launched the SFG report Water Cooperation for a Secure World[30] in Amman on 28 November 2013. The report examines for the first time the relationship between water and peace around the world and is based on the study of 148 countries and 205 shared river basins. It concludes that any two nations engaged in active water cooperation do not go to war. Out of the 148 countries covered, 37 countries are not engaged in any significant degree of cooperation with their neighbouring countries. These 37 countries also face the risk of war.
In the report, SFG developed a new Water Cooperation Quotient,[31] which is a measure of active cooperation by riparian countries in the management of water resources using 10 parameters including legal, political, technical, environmental, economic and institutional aspects. It is calculated on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being the best performance.
SFG also launched the report Rivers of Peace - Restructuring India-Bangladesh Relations[32] in 2013. This report provides a new formula to resolve the impasse over the Teesta River Agreement between India and Bangladesh.
A major breakthrough in developing consensus between multiple stakeholder representatives of Iraq and Turkey on a Plan of Action for promoting exchange and calibration of data and standards pertaining to Tigris river flows was achieved at a meeting organised by SFG in 2014. The outcome of the meeting which was held in Geneva has been referred to as the "Geneva Consensus On Tigris River".[33]
The first annual High-Level Forum on Blue Peace in the Middle East at Istanbul in September 2014. About 90 policymakers, Members of Parliament, serving and former Ministers, media leaders, academics and water experts from across the Middle East came together for this event. Participants proposed concrete initiatives at bilateral as well as regional levels to promote cooperation and sustainable management of water resources in the region.[34]
In March 2015, SFG launched two reports: The Hydro-Insecure: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East [35] and Water and Violence: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East,[36] which highlight the challenges of water security and the larger effect it has on the region.[37]
For instance, the reports highlight that water insecurity is always accompanied by one or more issues such as poverty, war and conflict, low women's development and environmental degradation.[38] According to the 'Hydro Insecure: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East' report, 40 million people are hydro-insecure, out of the total population of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, which is roughly 140 million.[39]
SFG also analyses major global changes and shares perspectives at international conferences.
2015-2020: Global Water
The Global High-Level Panel on Water and Peace was launched in Geneva in 2015. It was co-convened by 15 countries and chaired by Danilo Turk, the former president of Slovenia and former Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations. Strategic Foresight Group was selected to help the Panel in developing political and substantive recommendations. The Panel launched its report in September 2017 which advocates a number of specific recommendations on protecting water infrastructure in conflict zones, preferential and concessional finance for trans-boundary water projects, new mechanisms for hydro-diplomacy.[40]
After the report was launched, Strategic Foresight Group played a role in implementing the recommendations of the report, especially those relating to protection of water infrastructure in conflict zones and financing of joint water infrastructure. Strategic Foresight Group also produced the Blue Peace Bulletin that helped further disseminate the recommendations of the Global High-Level Panel on Water and Peace.
Since 2014: Critical Global Challenges
SFG is addressing major paradigm shifts due to major scientific, technological, environmental, economic, social, and political factors.
In 2011, SFG published a document titled Big Questions of Our Time which addresses issues that will affect humanity in the next 50 years, approximately until 2060. It has since been involved in analysing critical global challenges and linkages between them.[41]
In 2017, Strategic Foresight Group launched the second edition of the Water Cooperation Quotient, a rare document analyzing water cooperation in all of the world's shared river basins. The InterAction Council of Former Heads of State and Government provided the Foreword, authored by its two co-chairs, Mr Bertie Ahern, former Prime Minister of Ireland and President Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria.[44]
National security, or national defence, is the security and defence of a sovereign state, including its citizens, economy, and institutions, which is regarded as a duty of government. Originally conceived as protection against military attack, national security is widely understood to include also non-military dimensions, such as the security from terrorism, minimization of crime, economic security, energy security, environmental security, food security, and cyber-security. Similarly, national security risks include, in addition to the actions of other states, action by violent non-state actors, by narcotic cartels, organized crime, by multinational corporations, and also the effects of natural disasters.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an international institute based in Stockholm. It was founded in 1966 and provides data, analysis and recommendations for armed conflict, military expenditure and arms trade as well as disarmament and arms control. The research is based on open sources and is directed to decision-makers, researchers, media and the interested public.
The Munich Security Conference is an annual conference on international security policy that has been held in Munich, Bavaria, Germany since 1963. Formerly named the Munich Conference on Security Policy, the motto is: Peace through Dialogue.
The Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal is an organisation grouping Guinea, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal for the purpose of jointly managing the Senegal River and its drainage basin.
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, arranged and negotiated by the World Bank, to use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries. It was signed in Karachi on 19 September 1960 by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani president Field Marshal Ayub Khan.
Since the 1990s, the Republic of India and the State of Israel have had a comprehensive economic, military, and political relationship. In 1947, India voted against the United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine, but nonetheless recognized Israeli sovereignty in 1950. Israel opened a consulate in Bombay in 1953. Collaboration gradually increased as Israel became a key Indian ally amidst the India–Pakistan conflict; Israel supplied India with armaments, ammunition, and intelligence during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 and the Indo-Pakistani War of 1999. Full diplomatic relations were established in 1992, when India opened an embassy in Tel Aviv and Israel opened an embassy in New Delhi. Both countries are members of the I2U2 Group, formed in October 2021, and have stated that they have a strong bilateral relationship, sharing similarities in spirit and facing common challenges, increasingly cooperating in the industrial and technological sectors.
Water politics, sometimes called hydropolitics, is politics affected by the availability of water and water resources, a necessity for all life forms and human development.
Energy security is the association between national security and the availability of natural resources for energy consumption. Access to cheaper energy has become essential to the functioning of modern economies. However, the uneven distribution of energy supplies among countries has led to significant vulnerabilities. International energy relations have contributed to the globalization of the world leading to energy security and energy vulnerability at the same time.
Water conflict typically refers to violence or disputes associated with access to, or control of, water resources, or the use of water or water systems as weapons or casualties of conflicts. The term water war is colloquially used in media for some disputes over water, and often is more limited to describing a conflict between countries, states, or groups over the rights to access water resources. The United Nations recognizes that water disputes result from opposing interests of water users, public or private. A wide range of water conflicts appear throughout history, though they are rarely traditional wars waged over water alone. Instead, water has long been a source of tension and one of the causes for conflicts. Water conflicts arise for several reasons, including territorial disputes, a fight for resources, and strategic advantage.
Water politics in the Middle East deals with control of the water resources of the Middle East, an arid region where issues of the use, supply, control, and allocation of water are of central economic importance. Politically contested watersheds include the Tigris–Euphrates river system which drains to the south-east through Iraq into the Persian Gulf, the Nile basin which drains northward through Egypt into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and the Jordan River basin which flows into the Dead Sea, a land-locked and highly saline sea bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel to the west.
Cost of Conflict is a tool which attempts to calculate the price of conflict to the human race. The idea is to examine this cost, not only in terms of the deaths and casualties and the economic costs borne by the people involved, but also the social, developmental, environmental and strategic costs of conflict. In most cases organizations measure and analyze the economic and broader development costs of conflict. While this conventional method of assessing the impact of conflict is fairly in-depth, it does not provide a comprehensive overview of a country or region embroiled in conflict. One of the earliest studies assessing the true cost of conflict on a variety of parameters was commissioned by Saferworld and compiled by Michael Cranna. Strategic Foresight Group has taken this science to a new level by developing a multi-disciplinary methodology, that has been applied to most parts of the world. A key benefit of using this tool is to encourage people to look at conflict in new ways and to widen public discussion of the subject, and to bring new insights to the debate on global security.
Sundeep Waslekar is an Indian author and the president of Strategic Foresight Group. Waslekar is known for developing policy concepts for peaceful change, and his ideas have been discussed by the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, the Indian Parliament, and forums of the United Nations, including the United Nations Security Council. Waslekar is a signatory to the Normandy Manifesto for World Peace, along with Jody Williams, Mohamed El Baradei, Leymah Gbowee, Denis Mukwege, and philosopher Anthony Grayling.
Environmental peacebuilding examines and advocates environmental protection and cooperation as a factor in creating more peaceful relations. Peacebuilding is both the theory and practice of identifying the conditions that can lead to a sustainable peace between past, current or potential future adversaries. At the most basic level, warfare devastates ecosystems and the livelihoods of those who depend on natural resources, and the anarchy of conflict situations leads to the uncontrolled, destructive exploitation of natural resources. Preventing these impacts allows for an easier movement to a sustainable peace. From a more positive perspective, environmental cooperation can be one of the places where hostile parties can sustain a dialogue, and sustainable development is a prerequisite for a sustainable peace.
Climate security is a political and policy framework that looks at the impacts of climate on security. Climate security often refers to the national and international security risks induced, directly or indirectly, by changes in climate patterns. It is a concept that summons the idea that climate-related change amplifies existing risks in society that endangers the security of humans, ecosystems, economy, infrastructure and societies. Climate-related security risks have far-reaching implications for the way the world manages peace and security. Climate actions to adapt and mitigate impacts can also have a negative effect on human security if mishandled.
The Global High-Level Panel on Water and Peace was created in 2015 in Geneva at the initiative of 15 co-convening UN Member States to analyse water in the context of maintaining peace and security and to move this issue from a technical to a political level. Chaired by Dr. Danilo Türk, the former President of the Republic of Slovenia, the Panel presented its landmark report, A Matter of Survival, in Geneva in 2017. The Geneva Water Hub, acted as Secretariat to the Panel. The Strategic Foresight Group was the main intellectual partner of the Panel.
The International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law, also referred to as The IIJ or Malta Institute, is an International body, which aims to improve governance within underdeveloped countries, with its main focus on counter-terrorism. The IIJ was founded in 2014 by twelve founding nations and is based in Valletta, Malta. It is often referred to as a Global Counter-Terrorism Forum inspired institution. The founding nations include the United Kingdom, France, the United States and the EU. It also partnered with a number of International federations, such as the United Nations and the EU.
The Geneva Water Hub is a water research and policy institute headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. Established by the Swiss Confederation and the University of Geneva it focuses on hydro-diplomacy to prevent and resolve water-related conflicts, conducts water related research, runs education courses and is a think-tank on global water governance and its challenges.
Mahakali Treaty or महाकाली सन्धि is an agreement between the Government of Nepal and the Government of India regarding the development of watershed of Mahakali River. The treaty was signed in 1996. The treaty has 12 articles agreements for an integrated development of barrage, dams and hydropower for mutual cooperation of the two countries by managing the water resources. The treaty recognizes the Mahakali River as a boundary river between the two countries.
The Bahrain–Israel normalization agreement, officially Abraham Accords: Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations, is an agreement to normalize diplomatic and other relations between Bahrain and Israel. The agreement was announced by President Donald Trump on September 11, 2020, and followed on from a joint statement, officially referred to as the Abraham Accords, by the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on August 13, 2020. It was formally signed on September 15, 2020, at the White House in Washington, D.C., and made Bahrain the fourth Arab state to recognize Israel and the second within a month.
Janaina Tewaney Mencomo is a Panamanian politician. She served as foreign minister of Panama from October 2022 to July 2024. She also previously served as Minister of Government of Panama from March 2020 through October 2022.
↑ Comments on the theme paper of the Second International Roundtable on Constructing Peace, Deconstructing Terror "Iran Daily - National - 10/27/05". Archived from the original on 25 March 2009. Retrieved 7 July 2009.
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