2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
  Mark Warner 113th Congress photo (cropped).jpg Daniel Gade (cropped).jpg
Nominee Mark Warner Daniel Gade
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,468,0891,934,306
Percentage56.01%43.89%

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Virginia election results by congressional district.svg
VA Senate 2020.svg
Warner:     20–30%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Gade:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data

U.S. senator before election

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Warner
Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

Contents

Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania. [1]

Background

Incumbent senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore. [2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote by a margin of 0.8% against former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures. [7] [8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner. [9] The primary was on June 23.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Alissa Baldwin, teacher [11]
  • Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer [12]

Failed to qualify

  • Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor [13]
  • Omari Faulkner, Navy reservist and former Georgetown University basketball player [14] [9]
  • Roger Franklin [15]
  • Victor Williams, attorney and activist [16]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Daniel Gade
National Party Officials
U.S. representatives
State senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Gade
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% Virginia Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Gade
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Daniel Gade 208,754 67.40%
Republican Alissa Baldwin56,16518.13%
Republican Thomas Speciale44,79514.46%
Total votes309,714 100.0%

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Virginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie 6 years earlier was widely considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to being held concurrently with the Presidential Election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, albeit narrowly.

Warner's victory was largely contributed from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [31] Safe DOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [32] Safe DOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [33] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [34] Safe DOctober 30, 2020
Politico [35] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
RCP [36] Likely DOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [37] Safe DNovember 3, 2020
538 [38] Safe DNovember 2, 2020
Economist [39] Safe DNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Daniel Gade (R)
National party officials
U.S. representatives
State senators
State Delegates
Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mark
Warner (D)
Daniel
Gade (R)
Other/
Undecided
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 2] October 27 – November 1, 2020283 (LV)± 8.3%61%39%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020690 (LV)± 3.7%57%42%1% [lower-alpha 3]
Roanoke College October 23–29, 2020802 (LV)± 3.4%55%39%6% [lower-alpha 4]
Christopher Newport University October 15–27, 2020908 (LV)± 3.4%57%37%6% [lower-alpha 5]
Swayable October 23–26, 2020332 (LV)± 7.3%60%40%
Virginia Commonwealth University October 13–22, 2020709 (LV)± 4.93%55%38%8% [lower-alpha 6]
Schar School/Washington Post October 13–19, 2020908 (LV)± 4%57%39%4% [lower-alpha 7]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 20201,231 (LV)± 3.1%54%43%2% [lower-alpha 8]
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College September 30 – October 12, 2020602 (LV)55%38%7% [lower-alpha 9]
Roanoke College/Reconnect Research September 30 – October 12, 2020602 (LV)± 5.4%55%38%7% [lower-alpha 9]
Cygnal (R) [lower-alpha 10] October 9–11, 2020607 (LV)51%44%5% [lower-alpha 11]
Cygnal (R) [lower-alpha 12] [lower-alpha 10] September 22–25, 2020600 (LV)51%41%
Christopher Newport University September 9–21, 2020796 (LV)± 3.9%52%39%9% [lower-alpha 13]
Virginia Commonwealth University Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 14] August 28 – September 7, 2020692 (LV)± 6.22%55%38%6 [lower-alpha 15]
Roanoke College August 9–22, 2020566 (LV)± 4.1%55%34%10% [lower-alpha 16]
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Warner and Generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mark
Warner (D)
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Roanoke College May 3–16, 2020563 (LV)± 4.1%48%31%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019636 (A)± 4.0%43%26%2%23%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020 [54] [lower-alpha 17]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Mark Warner (incumbent) 2,468,089 56.01% +6.86%
Republican Daniel Gade 1,934,30643.89%-4.45%
Write-in 4,3880.10%+0.02%
Total votes4,406,783 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
By county and independent city
County / City Mark Warner
Democratic
Daniel Gade
Republican
Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%
Accomack 7,93947.238,86352.7290.05-924-5.5016,811
Albemarle 42,73067.3120,70032.61550.0922,03034.7063,485
Alexandria 65,07179.3716,80220.501070.1348,26958.8881,980
Alleghany 2,82235.305,15964.53140.18-2,337-29.237,995
Amelia 2,55932.675,26667.2380.10-2,707-34.567,833
Amherst 6,27337.1110,62462.8560.04-4,351-25.7416,903
Appomattox 2,74130.266,30669.63100.11-3,565-39.369,057
Arlington 102,88079.3726,59020.511540.1276,29058.85129,624
Augusta 12,22429.0729,79470.86260.06-17,570-41.7942,044
Bath 74430.571,68869.3520.08-944-38.782,434
Bedford 13,87228.7134,40771.21390.08-20,535-42.5348,279
Bland 73221.622,65178.2930.09-1,919-56.723,383
Botetourt 6,51231.4314,19068.49150.07-7,678-37.0620,717
Bristol 2,78736.254,89263.6390.12-2,105-27.387,688
Brunswick 4,72759.683,19240.3020.031,53519.387,921
Buchanan 2,52225.907,20273.97120.12-4,680-48.079,736
Buckingham 3,65645.404,39254.5540.05-736-9.148,052
Buena Vista 1,02037.131,72462.7630.11-704-25.632,747
Campbell 9,27831.2920,33768.60320.11-11,059-37.3029,647
Caroline 8,12450.238,03649.68140.09880.5416,174
Carroll 3,59123.6011,61076.31140.09-8,019-52.7015,215
Charles City 2,70061.291,70438.6810.0299622.614,405
Charlotte 2,52240.953,63359.0030.05-1,111-18.046,158
Charlottesville 20,67285.763,40914.14240.1017,26371.6224,105
Chesapeake 68,12953.9058,15446.001250.109,9757.89126,408
Chesterfield 107,56853.6792,65846.231950.1014,9107.44200,421
Clarke 4,05243.695,21456.2280.09-1,162-12.539,274
Colonial Heights 3,14335.165,78864.7490.10-2,645-29.598,940
Covington 1,15745.461,38654.4620.08-229-9.002,545
Craig 75724.092,38175.7650.16-1,624-51.673,143
Culpeper 11,12341.6115,59058.33160.06-4,467-16.7126,729
Cumberland 2,31743.992,94755.9530.06-630-11.965,267
Danville 12,51965.166,68034.77140.075,83930.3919,213
Dickenson 2,05228.495,14271.4080.11-3,090-42.917,202
Dinwiddie 6,44543.348,41456.58130.09-1,969-13.2414,872
Emporia 1,61869.3871230.5320.0990638.852,332
Essex 3,19452.252,91747.7220.032774.536,113
Fairfax City 9,17968.884,13431.02140.115,04537.8613,327
Fairfax County 415,79169.89178,39529.997360.12237,39639.90594,922
Falls Church 7,01679.951,75019.94100.115,26660.008,776
Fauquier 17,46841.1524,93758.75410.10-7,469-17.6042,446
Floyd 3,40736.525,90863.34130.14-2,501-26.819,328
Fluvanna 7,83049.817,88050.1390.06-50-0.3215,719
Franklin City 2,54964.351,41035.6020.051,13928.763,961
Franklin County 9,90733.6519,50566.26270.09-9,598-32.6029,439
Frederick 17,96237.4629,94062.45440.09-11,978-24.9847,946
Fredericksburg 8,49567.484,08032.41130.104,41535.0712,588
Galax 91935.361,67964.6010.04-760-29.242,599
Giles 2,71330.066,30669.8760.07-3,593-39.819,025
Gloucester 7,52133.9714,60565.96170.08-7,084-31.9922,143
Goochland 6,73040.269,97259.65150.09-3,242-19.3916,717
Grayson 1,94624.565,97275.3670.09-4,026-50.807,925
Greene 4,52940.456,66159.4960.05-2,132-19.0411,196
Greensville 2,71659.801,82240.1140.0989419.684,542
Halifax 8,25845.659,82454.3160.03-1,566-8.6618,088
Hampton 46,62772.3017,77727.57860.1328,85044.7464,490
Hanover 25,86437.0443,89362.86690.10-18,029-25.8269,826
Harrisonburg 11,11666.305,63433.60170.105,48232.7016,767
Henrico 117,19965.0962,68634.811770.1054,51330.27180,062
Henry 10,61641.3215,05158.58270.11-4,435-17.2625,694
Highland 50433.051,02066.8910.07-516-33.841,525
Hopewell 5,69559.643,84740.2970.071,84819.359,549
Isle of Wight 9,82141.9913,54657.91230.10-3,725-15.9323,390
James City 25,68552.0723,60047.84410.082,0854.2349,326
King and Queen 1,70541.742,37258.0780.20-667-16.334,085
King George 5,75840.678,38459.22150.11-2,626-18.5514,157
King William 3,44732.727,07967.2090.09-3,632-34.4810,535
Lancaster 3,45748.643,64851.3230.04-191-2.697,108
Lee 2,24022.747,60077.16100.10-5,360-54.429,850
Lexington 1,85367.3689532.5330.1195834.822,751
Loudoun 137,81461.8084,99138.121780.0852,82323.69222,983
Louisa 8,70039.9813,03959.92200.09-4,339-19.9421,759
Lunenburg 2,53142.923,36257.0140.07-831-14.095,897
Lynchburg 18,58751.8517,20848.00530.151,3793.8535,848
Madison 2,92536.165,15663.7570.09-2,231-27.588,088
Manassas 10,54762.826,22737.09140.084,32025.7316,788
Manassas Park 4,08467.861,92932.0550.082,15535.816,018
Martinsville 3,95767.721,88132.1950.092,07635.535,843
Mathews 1,94333.483,85666.4450.09-1,913-32.965,804
Mecklenburg 7,00444.088,87155.83130.08-1,867-11.7515,888
Middlesex 2,65839.444,08060.5320.03-1,422-21.096,741
Montgomery 24,58955.0919,99244.79520.124,59710.3044,633
Nelson 4,67350.754,52649.1680.091471.609,207
New Kent 4,76433.509,44966.4490.06-4,685-32.9414,222
Newport News 53,26567.6125,42832.27950.1227,83735.3378,788
Norfolk 66,15274.0123,08425.831440.1643,06848.1889,380
Northampton 3,88958.162,79541.8030.041,09416.376,684
Northumberland 3,38644.004,30655.9540.05-920-11.957,696
Norton 59137.3398862.4140.25-397-25.081,583
Nottoway 3,13644.723,86955.1780.11-733-10.457,013
Orange 8,39240.7812,17059.14170.08-3,778-18.3620,579
Page 3,42027.578,96872.31150.12-5,548-44.7312,403
Patrick 2,31025.116,87574.74130.14-4,565-49.639,198
Petersburg 12,41389.091,50510.80150.1110,90878.2913,933
Pittsylvania 11,50934.3321,99365.60240.07-10,484-31.2733,526
Poquoson 2,21228.315,59471.6070.09-3,382-43.297,813
Portsmouth 31,52071.9712,24127.95350.0819,27944.0243,796
Powhatan 5,66028.8213,97271.1480.04-8,312-42.3219,640
Prince Edward 5,19554.684,29145.17140.159049.529,500
Prince George 7,19942.229,84257.72100.06-2,643-15.5017,051
Prince William [lower-alpha 18] 145,75164.4680,17735.461830.0865,57429.00226,111
Pulaski 5,94134.6311,20365.29140.08-5,262-30.6717,158
Radford 3,55156.822,69043.0490.1486113.786,250
Rappahannock 2,21944.762,73455.1540.08-515-10.394,957
Richmond City 91,22283.2718,20516.621240.1173,01766.65109,551
Richmond County 1,68741.792,34758.1430.07-660-16.354,037
Roanoke City 28,34566.0814,49933.80500.1213,84632.2842,894
Roanoke County 24,04342.3832,64257.54480.08-8,599-15.1656,733
Rockbridge 4,63137.737,63762.2260.05-3,006-24.4912,274
Rockingham 13,73931.6129,70068.33290.07-15,961-36.7243,468
Russell 3,28824.799,96275.11130.10-6,674-50.3713,250
Salem 5,69744.027,23555.90110.08-1,538-11.8812,943
Scott 2,19120.388,54379.46170.16-6,352-59.0810,751
Shenandoah 7,31331.0616,22368.89120.05-8,910-37.8423,548
Smyth 3,97328.3810,01371.52150.11-6,040-43.1414,001
Southampton 4,12342.885,49257.1200.00-1,369-14.249,615
Spotsylvania 35,48547.5039,12052.37980.13-3,635-4.8774,703
Stafford 40,56651.9737,38947.901000.133,1774.0778,055
Staunton 7,28956.725,54643.16150.121,74313.5612,850
Suffolk 29,27559.4119,95540.50450.099,32018.9149,275
Surry 2,43955.431,95844.5030.0748110.934,400
Sussex 2,92457.622,14642.2950.1077815.335,075
Tazewell 4,50423.0315,03376.87200.10-10,529-53.8419,557
Virginia Beach 120,75353.91103,03746.002020.0917,7167.91223,992
Warren 7,07533.7313,87466.15240.11-6,799-32.4220,973
Washington 7,74427.2420,65672.66270.09-12,912-45.4228,427
Waynesboro 5,27549.715,32450.17120.11-49-0.4610,611
Westmoreland 4,82149.025,00950.9440.04-188-1.919,834
Williamsburg 4,81170.332,02029.53100.152,79140.806,841
Winchester 6,89857.585,07642.3760.051,82215.2111,980
Wise 4,12825.4112,09674.46210.13-7,968-49.0516,245
Wythe 4,04327.2410,78772.68120.08-6,744-45.4414,842
York 18,02546.7320,52453.21200.05-2,499-6.4838,569
Totals2,466,50055.991,934,19943.914,3880.10532,30112.084,405,087
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  3. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  5. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  6. "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  7. "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
  8. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  9. 1 2 Undecided with 7%
  10. 1 2 Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
  11. Undecided with 5%
  12. Archived October 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  13. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  14. Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  15. "Don't know/refused" with 6%
  16. "Refused" with 0%
  17. On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.html
  18. On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.html

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The 2020 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Jersey. It was held concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election, as well as various other elections. The primary elections were moved from June 2, 2020, to July 7, 2020, due to COVID-19 pandemic concerns. Incumbent senator Cory Booker was first elected in a 2013 special election to complete the term of fellow Democrat Frank Lautenberg, who died in office.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire</span>

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic former state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina</span> Election

The 2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election</span>

The 2020 West Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of West Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona</span> Election of US Senator Mark Kelly

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar was re-elected with 60.3% of the vote in 2018 and is running for re-election to a fourth term. Primary elections will take place on August 13, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine</span>

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The election was conducted with ranked choice voting, as per the result of a referendum passed in 2016.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana</span>

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

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