2022 United States Senate election in Washington

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2022 United States Senate election in Washington
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  Patty Murray, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg Tiffany Smiley GOP Retreat (cropped).jpg
Candidate Patty Murray Tiffany Smiley
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,741,8271,299,322
Percentage57.2%42.6%
2022 United States Senate election in Washington results map by county.svg
2022 United States Senate election in Washington results map by CD.svg
WA Senate 2022.svg
Murray:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Smiley:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Incumbent senator Patty Murray was first elected in 1992 with 54% of the vote to succeed retiring fellow Democrat Brock Adams. Murray won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote. [1]

Contents

Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley. [2]

Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset. [3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean. [4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state. [5]

Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role. [6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Pano Churchill, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 [7]
  • Sam Cusmir [7]
  • Ravin Pierre, aerospace engineer and data scientist [7]
  • Mohammed Said, physician and perennial candidate [7]
  • Bryan Solstin, aerospace engineer and software developer [7]

Withdrawn before primary

  • David Ishii
  • Nicolaust Sleister
  • Robert Kirby

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

  • Tiffany Smiley, nurse [8] [7]

Eliminated in primary

  • John Guenther, state employee [7]
  • Bill Hirt, perennial candidate [7]

Withdrawn before primary

  • Bob Hagglund, IT professional
  • Isaac Holyk, CEO of a software development Company


Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn before primary

  • Mfumu Metamorphosis Mpiana
  • Larry Hussey


Endorsements

Patty Murray (D)
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Tiffany Smiley (R)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Blanket primary results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Murray 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Smiley 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 2022 United States Senate primary election in Washington results map by county.svg
Blanket primary results by county
  Murray
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Smiley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Blanket primary election results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 1,002,811 52.22%
Republican Tiffany Smiley 646,917 33.69%
Trump RepublicanLeon Lawson59,1343.08%
Republican John Guenther55,4262.89%
Democratic Ravin Pierre22,1721.15%
JFK RepublicanDave Saulibio19,3411.01%
Independent Naz Paul18,8580.98%
Republican Bill Hirt15,2760.80%
Democratic Mohammad Hassan Said13,9950.73%
Socialist Workers Henry Clay Dennison13,9010.72%
Democratic Dr Pano Churchill11,8590.62%
Democratic Bryan Solstin9,6270.50%
Independent Charlie (Chuck) Jackson8,6040.45%
Independent Jon Butler5,4130.28%
Independent Thor Amundson5,1330.27%
No party preference Martin D. Hash4,7250.25%
No party preference Dan Phan Doan3,0490.16%
Democratic Sam Cusmir2,6880.14%
Write-in 1,5110.08%
Total votes1,920,440 100.0%

General election

Debates

Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University. [40] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle. [41]

Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [42] Likely DOctober 18, 2022
Inside Elections [43] Likely DJuly 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [44] Likely DOctober 19, 2022
Politico [45] Lean DNovember 3, 2022
RCP [46] TossupOctober 30, 2022
Fox News [47] Likely DNovember 1, 2022
DDHQ [48] Likely DSeptember 12, 2022
538 [49] Likely DOctober 19, 2022
The Economist [50] Likely DSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Patty Murray (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Tiffany Smiley (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Patty
Murray (D)		Tiffany
Smiley (R)		Undecided
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 14 – October 31, 2022November 3, 202249.3%46.3%4.4%Murray +3.0
FiveThirtyEight May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022November 7, 202249.6%44.9%6.5%Murray +4.7
270ToWin October 21 – November 1, 2022November 7, 202249.5%44.5%6.0%Murray +4.3
Average49.5%45.2%5.3%Murray +4.3
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Patty
Murray (D)		Tiffany
Smiley (R)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] November 3–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%47%47%–5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [upper-alpha 2] October 31, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%48%46%–6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 25–28, 20221,207 (LV)± 2.9%49%48%–2%
Triton Polling & Research [upper-alpha 3] October 26–27, 2022506 (LV)± 4.4%51%45%–4%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] October 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%–8%
KAConsulting (R) [upper-alpha 4] October 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%42%4% [lower-alpha 3] 6%
co/efficient (R) October 19–20, 20221,181 (LV)± 3.0%48%45%–7%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5] October 19–20, 2022782 (LV)± 3.5%52%42%–6%
SurveyUSA October 14–19, 2022589 (LV)± 5.0%49%41%–10%
Civiqs October 15–18, 2022698 (LV)± 4.5%55%41%3% [lower-alpha 4] 2%
Emerson College September 29 – October 1, 2022782 (LV)± 3.4%51%42%–7%
Public Policy Polling (D) September 27–28, 2022770 (V)± 3.5%52%40%–8%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [upper-alpha 6] September 20–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%5% [lower-alpha 5] 6%
Strategies 360 September 22–25, 2022500 (RV)± 4.4%50%36%–14%
370 (LV)± 5.1%52%40%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 21–24, 20221,091 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%–5%
Elway Research September 12–15, 2022403 (LV)± 3.0%50%37%–12%
Public Policy Polling (D) September 6–7, 2022620 (V)± 3.0%48%39%–13%
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] September 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%48%44%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 30 – September 1, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%49%46%–5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%43%–8%
Elway Research July 7–11, 2022400 (RV)± 4.5%53%33%–15%
SurveyUSA July 6–10, 2022596 (LV)± 5.0%51%33%–16%
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 7] June 14–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%–9%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5] June 1–2, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%51%40%–8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5] February 17–18, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%50%41%–9%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5] November 10–11, 2021909 (LV)± 3.3%50%37%–13%
SurveyUSA October 25–28, 2021542 (RV)± 5.2%49%31%–20%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5] May 25–26, 2021992 (LV)± 3.1%53%37%–10%
Hypothetical polling
Patty Murray vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Patty
Murray (D)		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Elway Research December 26–28, 2021400 (RV)± 5.0%42%39%19%
Patty Murray vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Patty
Murray (D)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R) August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%44%44%12%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Washington [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 1,741,827 57.15% -1.68%
Republican Tiffany Smiley1,299,32242.63%+1.77%
Write-in 6,7510.22%-0.09%
Total votes3,047,900 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

By county
CountyPatty Murray

Democratic

Tiffany Smiley

Republican

Write-InTotal
%#%#%#
Adams 23.46%96976.25%3,1500.29%124,131
Asotin 35.27%3,18164.58%5,8240.14%139,018
Benton 33.68%25,51366.15%50,1080.17%12875,749
Chelan 41.94%14,37357.87%19,8330.20%6734,273
Clallam 51.60%20,78448.17%19,4010.23%9440,279
Clark 51.09%105,05848.76%100,2600.14%298205,616
Columbia 27.17%59272.28%1,5750.55%122,179
Cowlitz 38.80%17,43961.07%27,4460.13%5744,942
Douglas 32.73%5,27567.05%10,0860.22%3616,117
Ferry 31.04%1,06068.76%2,3480.20%73,415
Franklin 31.61%7,02268.31%15,1740.08%1822,214
Garfield 23.85%30775.91%9770.23%31,287
Grant 26.83%7,22173.03%19,6550.13%3626,912
Grays Harbor 46.26%13,60053.46%15,7180.28%8129,399
Island 55.00%23,68044.77%19,2750.24%10243,057
Jefferson 70.62%14,97029.18%6,1850.21%4421,199
King 75.05%668,69224.73%220,3070.22%1,943890,942
Kitsap 57.51%70,93942.26%52,1340.23%276123,351
Kittitas 39.99%8,31859.84%12,4460.16%3420,798
Klickitat 41.89%4,79857.96%6,6390.16%1811,455
Lewis 31.29%11,26368.50%24,6540.21%7535,992
Lincoln 23.12%1,42376.63%4,7160.24%156,154
Mason 46.74%13,77752.97%15,6120.29%8629,475
Okanogan 40.01%6,64459.78%9,9260.20%3416,605
Pacific 48.32%5,77151.39%6,1370.29%3511,943
Pend Oreille 29.94%2,03269.82%4,7390.24%166,787
Pierce 52.69%175,16447.02%156,3310.29%959332,454
San Juan 72.88%8,25426.97%3,0550.15%1711,326
Skagit 51.57%29,31648.19%27,3940.24%13956,849
Skamania 42.07%2,62057.80%3,5990.13%86,227
Snohomish 57.52%184,43042.21%135,3390.27%864320,633
Spokane 45.46%100,71954.34%120,3690.20%443221,531
Stevens 26.50%6,07373.31%16,8030.19%4322,919
Thurston 58.04%73,18941.69%52,5700.28%347126,106
Wahkiakum 39.26%1,00760.47%1,5510.27%72,565
Walla Walla 41.38%10,03958.50%14,1920.12%2924,260
Whatcom 59.32%65,95040.51%45,0380.16%182111,170
Whitman 49.81%7,82449.96%7,8480.22%3515,707
Yakima 35.86%22,54163.93%40,1880.22%13662,865
Total57.15%1,741,82742.63%1,299,3220.226,7513,047,900
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat. [64]

DistrictMurraySmileyRepresentative
1st 62%37% Suzan DelBene
2nd 59%41% Rick Larsen
3rd 46%54% Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress)
4th 34%66% Dan Newhouse
5th 42%58% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 57%43% Derek Kilmer
7th 87%13% Pramila Jayapal
8th 51%49% Kim Schrier
9th 71%29% Adam Smith
10th 57%43% Marilyn Strickland

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Other/Refused" with 4%
  4. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for the NRSC and the Evergreen Principles PAC, which supports Smiley.
  2. ↑ This poll was sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative news outlet.
  3. ↑ Poll conducted for KHQ-TV.
  4. ↑ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute.
  6. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund.
  7. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Smiley's campaign.

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References

  1. 1 2 Newsdesk, Kiro Radio (May 17, 2021). "Senator Patty Murray announces reelection campaign". My Northwest.
  2. ↑ "Sen. Patty Murray, Tiffany Smiley advance in Washington Senate primary". PBS NewsHour. August 2, 2022. Retrieved September 30, 2022.
  3. ↑ "Democrats scramble to avert shock Senate loss in Washington state". Politico . October 26, 2022.
  4. ↑ Gutman, David (November 8, 2022). "Patty Murray defeats Tiffany Smiley in U.S. Senate race". The Seattle Times . Retrieved November 8, 2022.
  5. ↑ "Tiffany Smiley concedes U.S. Senate race to Sen. Patty Murray". KOMO News. Sinclair Broadcasting Group. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  6. ↑ Shabad, Rebecca (January 3, 2023). "Sen. Patty Murray becomes first female president pro tempore". NBC News. Retrieved April 3, 2023.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 "PRIMARY 2022 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  8. ↑ "Republican Tiffany Smiley says she is running for Patty Murray's Seat in U.S Senate". The Seattle Times. April 14, 2021. Archived from the original on April 15, 2021.
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  16. 1 2 Courtnee Connon (June 10, 2021). "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of U.S. Senate Endorsements in the 2022 Election Cycle". League of Conservation Voters.
  17. 1 2 "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Slate of Reproductive Freedom Champions for the U.S. House and Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. July 13, 2021.
  18. 1 2 "NWPC 2022 Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus .
  19. 1 2 Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections". Natural Resources Defense Council . Retrieved March 15, 2022.
  20. 1 2 "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
  21. 1 2 "Sierra Club Endorsements". March 19, 2021.
  22. 1 2 "Federal Endorsed Candidates". Women's Political Committee.
  23. 1 2 "2022 Washington Election Endorsements". seiu775.org. June 30, 2022. Retrieved July 29, 2022.
  24. 1 2 "Washington unions endorse mostly Democrats, capital gains tax". www.thecentersquare.org. Retrieved May 23, 2022.
  25. 1 2 "The Times recommends: Patty Murray for U.S. Senate". The Seattle Times. July 15, 2022. Retrieved July 16, 2022.
  26. ↑ "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August 2, 2022, Primary Election". The Stranger. July 14, 2022. Retrieved July 29, 2022.
  27. 1 2 Steinhauser, Paul (April 12, 2022). "Nikki Haley endorses Washington State's Tiffany Smiley as she works to broaden GOP's midterm Senate map". Fox News .
  28. 1 2 Ellenbecker, Lauren (February 12, 2022). "Pasco native Tiffany Smiley challenges Murray for seat".
  29. 1 2 "NRSC Chairman Rick Scott on America's Newsroom promotes Tiffany Smiley in the 2022 midterms". YouTube .
  30. 1 2 Newsmaker Interview (April 23, 2021). "Tiffany Smiley: Patty Murray is "Carrying the Water for the Senate Democrats, She's not Fighting for Washington Families."". Shift WA.
  31. 1 2 "McMorris Rodgers endorses Tiffany Smiley for U.S. Senate". YakTriNews. April 16, 2021. Archived from the original on April 16, 2021.
  32. 1 2 Fox News (April 28, 2022). "Stefanik gets involved in Washington Senate race against Patty Murray". Fox News.
  33. 1 2 "Spokane basketball legend John Stockton endorses GOP candidate Tiffany Smiley in Senate race".
  34. 1 2 "Benton County Republican Party Endorsements 2021". www.bcrpwa.com. June 3, 2021. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
  35. ↑ "2022 KCGOP Primary Endorsed Candidates". kcgop.org. Retrieved August 16, 2022.
  36. 1 2 "Stand for America PAC Endorsements" . Retrieved April 30, 2022.
  37. 1 2 Lynnwood Times Staff (August 21, 2021). "WSRP endorses Tiffany Smiley for U.S. Senate". Lynnwood Times.
  38. 1 2 "Winning For Women PAC Announces Endorsements in Senate, House Races". February 14, 2022. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
  39. ↑ "August 2, 2022 Primary - U.S. Senator". Secretary of State of Washington. August 2, 2022. Archived from the original on August 19, 2022. Retrieved August 9, 2022.
  40. ↑ Brunner, Jim (September 16, 2022). "Debates in WA set for U.S. Senate, House, secretary of state races". The Seattle Times . Retrieved September 28, 2022.
  41. ↑ Gutman, David (October 14, 2022). "2nd Patty Murray, Tiffany Smiley event announced in WA Senate race". The Seattle Times . Archived from the original on October 24, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  42. ↑ "2022 Senate Race ratings" . Retrieved October 18, 2022.
  43. ↑ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  44. ↑ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  45. ↑ "Washington Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  46. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  47. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  48. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  49. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  50. ↑ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  51. ↑ "Remarks by Vice President Harris at Finance Event with Patty Murray". October 27, 2022.
  52. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES" . Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  53. ↑ "The Olympian endorses federal and state candidates". The Olympian . October 20, 2022.
  54. ↑ "TNT endorses Murray, Strickland, Kilmer and Schrier in WA". The News Tribune . October 22, 2022.
  55. ↑ "Murray or Smiley? Here's our choice in this contentious, WA race for U.S. Senate". Tri-City Herald. Archived from the original on November 4, 2022. Retrieved July 18, 2023.
  56. ↑ "Sen. Marsha Blackburn Announces Support For Tiffany Smiley For Senate". January 25, 2022.
  57. 1 2 "Big names step up support for Tiffany Smiley as polls show 'dead heat' in senate race". November 3, 2022.
  58. ↑ "U.S. Senator and Decorated Veteran Tom Cotton Endorses Smiley for Senate". November 11, 2021.
  59. ↑ "Hundreds attend Tiffany Smiley's New Mom in Town bus tour in Snohomish County". November 7, 2022.
  60. ↑ "MD Governor Hogan Endorses Tiffany Smiley". Smiley for Washington. July 22, 2022. Archived from the original on December 4, 2022.
  61. ↑ "Governor Kristi Noem Endorses Tiffany Smiley for Senate". June 27, 2022.
  62. ↑ "Log Cabin Announces Third Round of 2022 Candidate Endorsements". www.logcabin.org. October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 18, 2022.
  63. ↑ "November 8, 2022 General Election Results - U.S. Senator". Secretary of State of Washington . Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  64. ↑ Results (PDF). sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 29, 2022.
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