2022 United States Senate elections in California

Last updated

2022 United States Senate elections in California
Flag of California.svg
  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  
  Alex Padilla 117th Congress portrait (3) (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Candidate Alex Padilla Mark Meuser
Party Democratic Republican
Regular election6,621,616
61.06%
4,222,025
38.94%
Special election6,559,303
60.89%
4,212,446
39.11%

2022USSenateCaliforniaspecial.svg
2022 United States Senate election in California results map by county.svg
2022 United States Senate election in California by congressional district.svg
Padilla:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Meuser:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Alex Padilla [lower-alpha 1]
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Alex Padilla
Democratic

Two 2022 United States Senate elections in California were held concurrently on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 3 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 117th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2023), and a general election for a full term (beginning on the same day), starting in the 118th United States Congress.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Alex Padilla was appointed in 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy created by Kamala Harris's election to the vice presidency in 2020, and he sought a full term. [1] [2] A jungle primary for each of the terms took place on June 7. [3] The top two candidates in each primary, regardless of party, advanced to the special and regular general elections in November. With his advancement out of the primary, Mark P. Meuser ( /ˈmɔɪʒər/ MOY-zhər) became the first Republican since 2012 to advance to the general election, as both the 2016 and 2018 Senate elections solely featured Democrats as the top two candidates. This race was a rematch between the two, as both had previously run for the secretary of state in 2018. Padilla won both elections with more than 60% of the vote. [4] He became the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from California, and the first male elected to the Senate from California since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988 and the first male elected to the Class 3 Senate seat from California since Alan Cranston was re-elected in 1986. [5] This was the first time since 1988 where both major party nominees for a Senate seat in California were men and was also the first time where both major party nominees for the Class 3 Senate seat in California were men since 1986.

This was the best performance for a Republican candidate in a California Senate election since 2010.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Akinyemi Agbede, mathematician [7]
  • Dan O'Dowd, founder and president of Green Hills Software and candidate for U.S. Senate in 1994 [8]
  • Douglas Howard Pierce, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 [7]
  • Obaidul Huq Pirjada, attorney [7]
  • Timothy J. Ursich, doctor [7]

Declined

Republican Party

Advanced to general

  • Mark P. Meuser, attorney and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018 [7]

Eliminated in primary

  • James P. Bradley, businessman, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for California's 33rd congressional district in 2020 [7]
  • Jon Elist, small business owner [7]
  • Myron L. Hall, physician [7]
  • Sarah Sun Liew, entrepreneur [7]
  • Robert George Lucero Jr., consultant [7]
  • Enrique Petris, businessman [7]
  • Chuck Smith, retired law enforcement officer [7]
  • Carlos Guillermo Tapia, businessman [7]
  • Cordie Williams, marine veteran and doctor [7]
  • Lijun Zhou, businesswoman (write-in, general election only) [11]

Withdrawn

Green Party

Eliminated in primary

Peace and Freedom Party

Eliminated in primary

No party preference

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

James P. Bradley (R)
Individuals
Mark Meuser (R)
Newspapers
Organizations
Alex Padilla (D)
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Stonewall Democrats clubs
  • Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club (San Francisco) [37]
  • East Bay Stonewall Democratic Club (Berkeley) [38]
  • Fresno Stonewall Democrats [39]
  • Harvey Milk LGBT Democratic Club (San Francisco) [40]
  • San Diego Democrats for Equality [41]
  • Stonewall Democrats [42]
John Parker (P&F)

Primary elections

Campaign

Incumbent senator Alex Padilla was appointed to the job in January 2021 following Kamala Harris's election to the office of Vice President of the United States. [43] Following his appointment, Padilla quickly began to focus on his 2022 election campaign, as the fact that he has not been elected to the position means that he has a relatively low profile. [9] Padilla's election strategy focused on advocating for progressive policies and building ties with left-wing organizations that had a poor relationship with California's other Senator, Dianne Feinstein. [9] [44] The potential Democratic opponent to Padilla considered most likely to join the race was U.S. Representative Ro Khanna, a staunchly left-wing Democrat who rose to prominence as the co-chair of the Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign, and who had a loyal base of support from California's Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities. [9] [10] On August 9, 2021, Khanna announced that he would be endorsing Padilla for election, which was viewed as likely ending any possibility that Padilla would face a serious Democratic opponent. [45] It was noted by the San Francisco Chronicle that it was considered unlikely that Padilla would face any serious Republican opponent, as California's heavily Democratic lean caused potentially strong candidates, such as U.S. Representatives Mike Garcia and Young Kim, to prefer to remain in their positions rather than launch a long-shot Senate run. [46]

In April 2022, billionaire businessman Dan O'Dowd entered the race, launching a $650,000 ad campaign. [8] O'Dowd's goal with this ad buy, and with entering the race in the first place, was to "make computers safe for humanity" [47] [48] and draw the attention of the public and politicians to the dangers of Tesla's unfinished Full Self-Driving software being rolled out to 100,000 cars on public roads. [49]

Special election blanket primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Daphne
Bradford
(NPP)
James
Bradley
(R)
Jon
Elist
(R)
Myron
Hall
(R)
Mark
Meuser
(R)
Dan
O'Dowd
(D)
Alex
Padilla
(D)
Timothy
Ursich Jr.
(D)
Undecided
Berkeley IGS May 24–31, 20223,438 (LV)± 2.2%1%7%5%2%14%3%44%2%21%
SurveyUSA May 13–15, 2022709 (LV)± 4.5%1%8%7%3%11%6%40%2%22%

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Padilla
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Meuser
30-40%
40-50% 2022 United States Senate special primary election in California results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Padilla
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Meuser
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Special election blanket primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 3,740,582 55.0
Republican Mark P. Meuser 1,503,480 22.1
Republican James P. Bradley472,0526.9
Republican Jon Elist403,7225.9
Democratic Timothy J. Ursich226,4473.3
Democratic Dan O'Dowd191,5312.8
Republican Myron L. Hall143,0382.1
No party preference Daphne Bradford112,1911.6
Peace and Freedom John Parker (write-in)9,9510.1
No party preference Irene Ratliff (write-in)120.0
Total votes6,803,006 100.0

Regular election blanket primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
(D) Akinyemi Agbede
(I) Daphne Bradford
(R) James Bradley
(G) James Conn
(R) Jon Elist
(G) Pamela Elizondo
(I) Eleanor Garcia
(I) Don Grundmann
(R) Myron Hall
(I) Deon Jenkins
(R) Sarah Sun Liew
(R) Robert Lucero Jr.
(R) Mark Meuser
(D) Dan O'Dowd
(D) Alex Padilla
(PF) John Parker
(R) Enrique Petris
(D) Douglas Pierce
(D) Obaidul Huq Pirjada
(R) Chuck Smith
(R) Carlos Tapia
(D) Timothy Ursich Jr.
(R) Cordie Williams
Undecided
Berkeley IGS May 24–31, 20223,438 (LV)± 2.2%1%0%3%0%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%11%1%42%1%0%1%1%6%1%1%2%22%
SurveyUSA May 13–15, 2022709 (LV)± 4.5%2%0%9%1%4%0%0%0%3%0%3%2%4%1%36%0%1%2%2%2%1%1%1%24%

Results

Results by county
Padilla
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Meuser
20-30% 2022 United States Senate primary election in California results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Padilla
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Meuser
  •   20–30%
Regular election blanket primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 3,725,544 54.1
Republican Mark P. Meuser 1,028,374 14.9
Republican Cordie Williams474,3216.9
Republican Jon Elist289,7164.2
Republican Chuck Smith266,7663.9
Republican James P. Bradley235,7883.4
Democratic Douglas Howard Pierce116,7711.7
Peace and Freedom John Parker105,4771.5
Republican Sarah Sun Liew76,9941.1
Democratic Dan O'Dowd74,9161.1
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede70,9711.0
Republican Myron L. Hall66,1611.0
Democratic Timothy J. Ursich58,3480.8
Republican Robert George Lucero Jr.53,3980.8
Green James "Henk" Conn35,9830.5
No party preference Eleanor Garcia [lower-alpha 3] 34,6250.5
Republican Carlos Guillermo Tapia33,8700.5
Green Pamela Elizondo31,9810.5
Republican Enrique Petris31,8830.5
Democratic Obaidul Huq Pirjada27,8890.4
No party preference Daphne Bradford26,9000.4
No party preference Don J. Grundmann [lower-alpha 4] 10,1810.1
No party preference Deon D. Jenkins6,9360.1
No party preference Mark A. Ruzon (write-in)2060.0
Republican Lijun Zhou (write-in)580.0
No party preference Irene Ratliff (write-in)70.0
No party preference Marc Alexander Roth (write-in)10.0
Total votes6,884,065 100.0

General elections

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [53] Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [54] Solid DApril 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [55] Safe DMarch 1, 2022
Politico [56] Solid DApril 1, 2022
RCP [57] Safe DFebruary 24, 2022
Fox News [58] Solid DMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [59] Solid DJuly 20, 2022
538 [60] Solid DJune 30, 2022
The Economist [61] Safe DSeptember 7, 2022

Polling

Special election
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Alex
Padilla (D)
Mark
Meuser (R)
Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%59%35%6%
SurveyUSA October 7–10, 20221,013 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%10%
Regular election
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Alex
Padilla (D)
Mark
Meuser (R)
Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%60%35%5%
USC October 30 – November 2, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%63%37%
ActiVote July 22 – October 20, 2022208 (LV)± 7.0%65%35%
SurveyUSA October 7–10, 20221,013 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%11%

Results

2022 United States Senate special election in California [62]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 6,559,303 60.89% N/A
Republican Mark Meuser4,212,44639.11%N/A
Total votes10,771,749 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
2022 United States Senate election in California [62]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Alex Padilla (incumbent) 6,621,616 61.06% N/A
Republican Mark Meuser4,222,02538.94%N/A
Total votes10,843,641 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

By county
County Alex Padilla
Democratic
Mark Meuser
Republican
MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Alameda 383,30080.2694,28319.74289,01760.52477,583
Alpine 37260.7824039.2213221.56612
Amador 6,52235.3711,91764.63-5,395-29.2618,439
Butte 33,46746.7138,18353.29-4,716-6.5871,650
Calaveras 7,64936.3113,41563.69-5,766-27.3821,064
Colusa 1,80733.113,65166.89-1,844-33.785,458
Contra Costa 267,33169.72116,12230.28151,20939.44383,453
Del Norte 3,40041.204,85258.80-1,452-17.608,252
El Dorado 36,66941.8151,02558.19-14,356-16.3887,694
Fresno 100,96347.00113,84553.00-12,882-10.16214,808
Glenn 2,23428.525,60071.48-4,070-51.327,930
Humboldt 30,61264.1717,09635.8313,51628.3447,708
Imperial 17,77459.8611,91940.145,85519.7229,693
Inyo 3,48847.353,87852.65-390-5.307,366
Kern 73,77939.41113,42860.59-39,649-21.18188,703
Kings 10,06737.8516,53362.15-6,466-24.3026,600
Lake 10,13850.939,76949.073691.8619,907
Lassen 1,88820.827,18179.18-5,293-58.369,069
Los Angeles 1,670,30670.00715,91330.00954,39340.002,386,219
Madera 14,01838.3722,51461.63-8,496-23.2636,532
Marin 95,49681.0522,32618.9573,17062.10117,822
Mariposa 3,05039.344,70360.66-1,653-21.327,753
Mendocino 19,74565.4910,40634.519,33930.9830,151
Merced 26,75548.9627,89351.04-1,138-2.0854,648
Modoc 80223.912,55276.09-1,750-52.183,354
Mono 2,59457.401,92542.6066914.804,519
Monterey 67,15366.3734,02633.6333,12732.74101,179
Napa 32,65166.3616,54933.6416,10232.7249,200
Nevada 27,89855.3822,47844.625,42010.7650,376
Orange 479,49449.50489,18550.50-9,691-1.00968,679
Placer 77,54043.05102,59756.95-25,057-13.90180,137
Plumas 3,40539.795,15360.21-1,748-20.428,558
Riverside 289,59949.40296,68750.60-7,088-1.20586,286
Sacramento 283,11759.98188,92540.0294,19219.96472,042
San Benito 11,01656.838,36843.172,64813.6619,384
San Bernardino 218,49449.10226,47050.90-7,976-1.80444,964
San Diego 586,28457.57432,02742.43154,25715.141,018,311
San Francisco 254,75685.6542,69914.35212,05771.30297,455
San Joaquin 90,28951.4985,07848.515,2112.98175,367
San Luis Obispo 63,07653.3855,08746.627,9896.76118,163
San Mateo 186,89176.3757,82523.63129,06652.74244,716
Santa Barbara 82,25561.5751,33938.4330,91623.14133,594
Santa Clara 383,15271.43153,24928.57229,90342.86536,401
Santa Cruz 80,67577.9622,81022.0457,86555.92103,485
Shasta 20,80530.8046,75069.20-25,945-38.4067,555
Sierra 57237.0297362.98-401-25.961,545
Siskiyou 6,89239.3910,60760.61-3,715-21.2217,499
Solano 80,31761.9049,44338.1030,87423.80129,760
Sonoma 143,19773.3751,98226.6391,21546.74195,179
Stanislaus 57,86144.9770,79255.03-12,931-10.06128,653
Sutter 9,79735.4717,82764.53-8,030-29.0627,624
Tehama 5,67027.7214,78472.28-9,114-44.5620,454
Trinity 2,01944.802,48855.20-469-10.404,507
Tulare 35,21538.8855,35961.12-20,144-22.2490,574
Tuolumne 8,93238.9214,01661.08-5,084-22.1622,948
Ventura 155,23156.03121,82243.9733,40912.06277,053
Yolo 46,09468.6821,02231.3225,07237.3667,116
Yuba 7,04336.1512,43963.85-5,396-27.7019,482
Totals6,621,61661.064,222,02538.942,399,59122.1210,843,641

By congressional district

Padilla won 42 of 52 congressional districts in the regular election, including two that elected Republicans. [63]

DistrictPadillaMeuserRepresentative
1st 36%64% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 73%27% Jared Huffman
3rd 46%54% Kevin Kiley
4th 66%34% Mike Thompson
5th 40%60% Tom McClintock
6th 57%43% Ami Bera
7th 66%34% Doris Matsui
8th 75%25% John Garamendi
9th 51%49% Josh Harder
10th 66%34% Mark DeSaulnier
11th 86%14% Nancy Pelosi
12th 91%9% Barbara Lee
13th 49%51% John Duarte
14th 70%30% Eric Swalwell
15th 77%23% Jackie Speier (117th Congress)
Kevin Mullin (118th Congress)
16th 74%26% Anna Eshoo
17th 71%29% Ro Khanna
18th 68%32% Zoe Lofgren
19th 67%33% Jimmy Panetta
20th 32%68% Kevin McCarthy
21st 53%47% Jim Costa
22nd 51%49% David Valadao
23rd 41%59% Jay Obernolte
24th 61%39% Salud Carbajal
25th 55%45% Raul Ruiz
26th 55%45% Julia Brownley
27th 51%49% Mike Garcia
28th 65%35% Judy Chu
29th 76%24% Tony Cárdenas
30th 77%23% Adam Schiff
31st 61%39% Grace Napolitano
32nd 69%31% Brad Sherman
33rd 57%43% Pete Aguilar
34th 83%17% Jimmy Gomez
35th 57%43% Norma Torres
36th 69%31% Ted Lieu
37th 86%14% Karen Bass (117th Congress)
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (118th Congress)
38th 60%40% Linda Sánchez
39th 56%44% Mark Takano
40th 46%54% Young Kim
41st 47%53% Ken Calvert
42nd 69%31% Lucille Roybal-Allard (117th Congress)
Robert Garcia (118th Congress)
43rd 80%20% Maxine Waters
44th 72%28% Nanette Barragán
45th 49%51% Michelle Steel
46th 61%39% Lou Correa
47th 51%49% Katie Porter
48th 40%60% Darrell Issa
49th 52%48% Mike Levin
50th 63%37% Scott Peters
51st 61%39% Sara Jacobs
52nd 65%35% Juan Vargas

See also

Notes

  1. In January 2021, Padilla was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Kamala Harris, who had elected Vice President of the United States.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Garcia is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Socialist Workers Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed. [51]
  4. Grundmann is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Constitution Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed. [52]

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The 2022 California Insurance Commissioner election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the Insurance Commissioner of California. Under California's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers — regardless of party — advanced to the general election in November, even if a candidate managed to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. Incumbent Democratic Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara won re-election to a second term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 California Secretary of State election</span>

The 2022 California Secretary of State election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Secretary of State of California. The primary election was held on June 7, 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 California State Senate election</span>

The 2024 California State Senate election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, with the primary election being held on March 5, 2024. Voters in the 20 odd-numbered districts of the California State Senate will elect their representatives. The elections will coincide with the elections for other offices, including the state Assembly.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California</span>

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the 52 U.S. representatives from the State of California, one from all 52 of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

References

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Official campaign websites