2022 Colorado gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Colorado gubernatorial election
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←  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  →
Turnout66.3% Decrease2.svg
  Jared Polis official photo (cropped).jpg Heidi Ganahl New (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jared Polis Heidi Ganahl
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Dianne Primavera Danny Moore
Popular vote1,468,481983,040
Percentage58.53%39.18%
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Colorado Governor election by Congressional District.svg
CO Governor 2022.svg
Polis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ganahl:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
Governor before election

Jared Polis
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jared Polis
Democratic

The 2022 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jared Polis won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganahl in a landslide. The primary election was held on June 28. [1]

Contents

Polis's 2022 victory marked the first time in American history that an openly gay politician was re-elected as the governor of a state. [2] Polis had the best performance for a re-elected Colorado governor since Bill Owens in 2002, the best for a Democrat since Roy Romer in 1990, and the highest raw vote total ever in a Colorado gubernatorial race.

Democratic assembly

Candidates

Nominated at assembly

Eliminated at assembly

  • None

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jared Polis (incumbent) 523,489 100.00%
Total votes523,489 100.00%

Republican primary

Former Colorado SBA director Greg Lopez finished second in the primary. Greg Lopez.JPG
Former Colorado SBA director Greg Lopez finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Declined

Endorsements

Heidi Ganahl
Statewide officials
Newspapers

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Ganahl Ganahl--50-60% Ganahl--60-70% Lopez Lopez--50-60% Lopez--60-70% 2022 Colorado gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Ganahl
  •   Ganahl—50–60%
  •   Ganahl—60–70%
  Lopez
  •   Lopez—50–60%
  •   Lopez—60–70%
Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Heidi Ganahl 341,157 53.87%
Republican Greg Lopez 292,18746.13%
Total votes633,344 100.0%

American Constitution convention

Danielle Neuschwanger, the Constitution nominee Danielle Neuschwanger (cropped).JPG
Danielle Neuschwanger, the Constitution nominee

Candidates

Nominee

  • Danielle Neuschwanger, realtor (previously ran for Republican nomination) [17]
    • Running mate: Darryl Gibbs, truck driver and U.S. Air Force veteran (previously ran for Republican nomination) [18]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [19] Solid DJuly 29, 2022
Inside Elections [20] Solid DJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Safe DOctober 12, 2022
Politico [22] Likely DApril 1, 2022
RCP [23] Likely DOctober 20, 2022
Fox News [24] Likely DMay 12, 2022
538 [25] Solid DJuly 31, 2022
Elections Daily [26] Safe DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Jared Polis (D)
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Heidi Ganahl (R)
Federal officials
Statewide officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Danielle Neuschwanger (ACP)
U.S. Executive Branch officials

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Jared
Polis (D)		Heidi
Ganahl (R)		Other
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 26 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202253.0%42.3%4.7%Polis +10.7
FiveThirtyEight June 8 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202254.1%41.8%4.1%Polis +12.3
270ToWin November 1–7, 2022November 8, 202254.0%42.0%4.0%Polis +12.0
Average53.7%42.0%4.3%Polis +11.7
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Jared
Polis (D)		Heidi
Ganahl (R)		OtherUndecided
co/efficient (R) November 3–7, 2022856 (LV)± 3.3%54%43%2% [lower-alpha 3] 2%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–5, 20221,983 (LV)± 2.0%55%43%2% [lower-alpha 4] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 20221,084 (LV)± 2.9%50%43%5% [lower-alpha 5] 3%
Emerson College October 26–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%54%40%4% [lower-alpha 6] 3%
54%41%4% [lower-alpha 7] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] October 25–27, 20221,174 (LV)± 2.9%50%42%6% [lower-alpha 8] 3%
CU Boulder/YouGov October 11–19, 2022709 (LV)± 4.4%57%41%2% [lower-alpha 9] –
Civiqs October 15–18, 2022600 (LV)± 5.0%55%40%2% [lower-alpha 10] 3%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] October 6–11, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%52%34%6% [lower-alpha 11] 8%
54%39%–7%
Marist College October 3–6, 20221,127 (RV)± 4.7%54%36%2% [lower-alpha 12] 7%
983 (LV)± 5.0%54%39%3% [lower-alpha 13] 5%
Data for Progress (D) October 3–6, 20221,005 (LV)± 3.0%56%39%3% [lower-alpha 14] 2%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies September 18–26, 20221,060 (LV)± 3.0%51%34%2% [lower-alpha 15] 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 20–24, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%49%41%4% [lower-alpha 16] 6%
Emerson College September 18–19, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%53%36%2% [lower-alpha 17] 9%
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] August 21–22, 20221,503 (LV)± 2.5%49%42%–9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 15–19, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%47%42%6% [lower-alpha 18] 5%
Global Strategy Group (D) [ permanent dead link ] [upper-alpha 2] June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%50%32%5% [lower-alpha 19] 13%
54%37%–9%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%53%37%–10%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] October 19–24, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%52%35%–13%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] June 17–23, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%54%34%–12%
Hypothetical polling
Jared Polis vs. Greg Lopez
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Jared
Polis (D)		Greg
Lopez (R)		Danielle
Neuschwanger (ACP)		Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) [ permanent dead link ] [upper-alpha 2] June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%52%32%6%10%
53%39%–8%
Jared Polis vs. Danielle Neuschwanger
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Jared
Polis (D)		Danielle
Neuschwanger (R)		Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%51%40%9%
Jared Polis vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Jared
Polis (D)		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] June 2–8, 2022800 (RV)± 3.4%54%38%8%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%54%38%8%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 3] January 12–13, 2022630 (LV)± 3.9%49%44%8%
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] June 17–23, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%49%39%12%

Debates

2022 Colorado gubernatorial general election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:

 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Jared Polis Heidi Ganahl
2Oct. 14, 2022 CBS Colorado PP

Results

2022 Colorado gubernatorial election swing map by county.svg
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election trend map by county.svg
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
1,468,481 58.53% +5.11%
Republican
983,04039.18%-3.62%
Libertarian
  • Kevin Ruskusky
  • Michele Poague
28,9391.15%-1.60%
American Constitution
  • Danielle Neuschwanger
  • Darryl Gibbs
21,6230.86%N/A
Unity
  • Paul Noël Fiorino
  • Cynthia Munhos de Aquino Sirianni
6,6870.27%-0.75%
Write-in 600.0%N/A
Total votes2,540,680 100.0% N/A
Turnout 2,540,68066.28%
Registered electors 3,833,360
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Polis won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. [51]

DistrictPolisGanahlRepresentative
1st 82%17% Diana DeGette
2nd 72%26% Joe Neguse
3rd 50%47% Lauren Boebert
4th 43%55% Ken Buck
5th 47%50% Doug Lamborn
6th 63%35% Jason Crow
7th 60%38% Ed Perlmutter (117th Congress)
Brittany Pettersen (118th Congress)
8th 53%45% Yadira Caraveo

Analysis

Incumbent governor Jared Polis easily won re-election by 19.3%, a margin much larger than aggregate polling predicted. Polis piled up massive margins in the heavily populous North Central Colorado Urban Area, which contains the state capital Denver plus its surrounding suburbs Aurora, Thornton, Lakewood, and Broomfield; in addition to other major cities Boulder and Fort Collins, home to the University of Colorado and Colorado State University respectively. Outside the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins region, Polis also won a long row of counties along the Rocky Mountains from Routt in the north to La Plata in the south, which contains a number of liberal leaning ski resort towns like Telluride, Aspen, and Steamboat Springs. In Southern Colorado, a region historically known for coal mining, and home to a sizable Hispanic population, Polis managed to halt the decline in support for Democrats that had been taking place here since the mid-2010s in both state and federal races. Polis also won the relatively conservative city of Colorado Springs, the first Democrat to do so in recent history, along with greatly increasing his vote share in conservative-leaning urban counties compared to 2018. [52] Polis's definitive victory likely helped other Democrats down the ballot to win their races or win them by comfortable margins, allowing Democrats to keep control of the state government. [53]

Heidi Ganahl did best in the traditionally rural areas of Colorado bordering Kansas in the east, Utah in the west, and several larger counties including Weld (Greeley), Douglas (Castle Rock and Highlands Ranch), and El Paso (Colorado Springs). In the latter two counties, Ganahl significantly underperformed previous Republican nominees in these traditionally conservative urban counties, winning Douglas by 0.38% and El Paso by 3.97%, the closest either county had come to voting Democratic since 1994 and 1982 respectively. Ganahl failed to appeal to the large unaffiliated bloc of state voters along with political moderates. During her campaign, she highlighted her opposition to abortion (at odds with most Colorado voters), utilized incendiary right-wing rhetoric in regards to several social and cultural issues, and courted figures involved with pushing conspiracy theories about elections. [54] [55]

Prior to the election, an article by Daniel Strain from the University of Colorado reported that 71% of Colorado voters said their state's elections will be conducted "fairly and accurately", while 54% said the same for other elections across the United States. 53% of voters also disapproved of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization to overturn Roe v. Wade . 63% of voters said Joe Biden won the 2020 election, although Biden had a 52% disapproval among Centennial State voters compared to 39% who approved of him. [56]

Despite Biden's low approval, a Marist poll conducted in October found that amongst 1,221 Colorado adults, Governor Polis had a 50% approval, while Ganahl suffered from low name recognition, with 42% having either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her. The same poll also found that 34% of voters were most concerned about inflation, followed by preserving democracy at 29%, abortion at 16%, crime at 7%, followed by healthcare and immigration at 6% each. [57]

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ↑ Ruskusky (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  5. ↑ Ruskusky (L) with 2%; "Other" with 3%
  6. ↑ Neuschwanger (ACP) with 2%; Fiorino (U) with 1%; Ruskusky (L) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Neuschwanger (ACP) with 2%; Fiorino (U) with 1%; Ruskusky (L) with <1%
  8. ↑ Neuschwanger (ACP) with 3%; Ruskusky (L) with 2%; Fiorino (U) with 1%
  9. ↑ "Other" with 2%
  10. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ↑ Ruskusky (L) with 4%; Neuschwanger (ACP) with 2%
  12. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 2%
  13. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 3%
  14. ↑ Ruskusky (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 2%
  15. ↑ Ruskusky (L) with 1%; Neuschwanger (ACP) with 1%
  16. ↑ Ruskusky (L) with 2%; "Other" with 2%
  17. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  18. ↑ Ruskusky (L) with 4%; "Other" with 2%
  19. ↑ Neuschwanger (ACP) with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Ganahl's campaign
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 This poll was sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado, a liberal nonprofit organization.
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Ready Colorado

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References

  1. ↑ "Primary Election FAQs". Colorado Secretary of State. State of Colorado. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  2. ↑ "Colorado Governor Primary Election Results". The New York Times. June 28, 2022. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  3. 1 2 Luning, Ernest (February 15, 2022). "Gov. Jared Polis officially launches re-election campaign with statewide tour". Colorado Politics. Retrieved February 26, 2022.
  4. 1 2 "State primary certificate - Statewide Amended Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State.
  5. ↑ Miller, Faith. "Republican CU Regent Heidi Ganahl launches campaign for Colorado governor". Colorado Newsline. Retrieved September 14, 2021.
  6. ↑ "Election Night Reporting".
  7. ↑ "Colorado Republican Heidi Ganahl names Danny Moore as her gubernatorial running mate". July 18, 2022.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 Ashby, Charles (July 17, 2021). "Candidates starting to line up in governor's race". Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (published May 9, 2021). Archived from the original on August 17, 2021. Retrieved August 17, 2021.
  9. ↑ Bartolo, James (August 16, 2021). "Colorado governor candidate Greg Lopez and Rep. Stephanie Luck to speak in Swink". La Junta Tribune-Democrat . Archived from the original on August 17, 2021. Retrieved August 17, 2021.
  10. ↑ "Here's Who's Running to Unseat Jared Polis in Colorado's 2022 Gov Race". Colorado Times Recorder. August 11, 2021. Retrieved February 20, 2022.
  11. ↑ "Jim Rundberg". Ballotpedia.
  12. ↑ Benson, Guy [@guypbenson] (December 21, 2021). "🚨THREAD🚨 Alright, folks — true story: In recent days, I've been contacted about rumors that I'm planning to run for Governor. Of Colorado. (Yes, this has actually happened). I feel a powerful duty to say "Go Broncos," and to respond to these intensifying whispers… https://t.co/JlrXOSRMq5" (Tweet). Archived from the original on December 21, 2021. Retrieved January 24, 2022– via Twitter.
  13. ↑ "Colorado's Ken Buck makes it official — he wants another term in Congress". April 19, 2021.
  14. ↑ "Colorado's only Republican governor elected within last 50 years says presidential race is over". KUSA.com. November 24, 2020.
  15. 1 2 Luning, Ernest (June 10, 2022). "Former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens backs Heidi Ganahl in GOP gubernatorial primary". coloradopolitics.com. Retrieved June 17, 2022.
  16. ↑ "ENDORSEMENT: GOP must choose Heidi Ganahl". www.gazette.com. The Gazette. May 22, 2022. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  17. ↑ "Neuschwanger Has Accepted Invitation to Become Constitution Party Nominee for Colorado Gov".
  18. ↑ Luning, Ernest (April 30, 2022). "Ex-Republican Danielle Neuschwanger launches gubernatorial run on third-party ticket". Colorado Politics.
  19. ↑ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  20. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  21. ↑ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  22. ↑ "Colorado Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  23. ↑ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  24. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  25. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  26. ↑ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  27. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES" . Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  28. ↑ "Colorado - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  29. ↑ "Endorsements - Cobalt Advocates". cobaltadvocates.org. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  30. ↑ "2022 Colorado AFL-CIO Endorsements". coaflcio.org. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  31. ↑ "2022 CBWPA Endorsements". cbwpa.org. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  32. 1 2 "Governor Polis Recieves[sic] Pro Choice Endorsements". www.outfrontmagazine.com. October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  33. ↑ "Jared Polis - DGA". Democratic Governors Association. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  34. ↑ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Jared Polis for Governor, Dianne Primavera for Lieutenant Governor, Phil Weiser for Attorney General, Jena Griswold for Secretary of State". Everytown for Gun Safety. June 24, 2022. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  35. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Colorado Governor Jared Polis for Reelection".
  36. ↑ Society, Humane. "2022 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
  37. ↑ "One Colorado Endorses Jared Polis for Governor". one-colorado.org. June 14, 2022. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  38. ↑ "Save the Children Action Network Endorses Governor Jared Polis for Reelection". Save The Children USA. September 8, 2022. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  39. ↑ "OUR ENDORSEMENTS FOR 2022 GENERAL ELECTION". stand.org. August 29, 2022. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  40. ↑ The Denver Post Editorial Board (October 24, 2022). "Endorsement: Jared Polis has made great progress for Colorado". The Denver Post. Archived from the original on December 19, 2022. Retrieved December 19, 2022.
  41. ↑ "ENDORSEMENT: Polis is the proven and pragmatic voter choice for Colorado governor". October 7, 2022.
  42. ↑ "Stefanik gives first 2022 gubernatorial endorsement – to GOP'S Heidi Ganahl in Colorado". justthenews.com. April 4, 2022. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  43. ↑ Ganahl, Heidi [@heidiganahl] (July 18, 2022). "Great to have Virginia Governor @GlennYoungkin in Colorado supporting our campaign. We're going to keep the wave Glenn started going here in Colorado - making it better to live, work, and raise a family! #HeidiForGov https://t.co/s3DVwPdgWx" (Tweet). Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2023– via Twitter.
  44. ↑ "PRESS RELEASE: Ganahl Earns Colorado Fraternal Order of Police Endorsement". www.heidiforgovernor.com. October 11, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  45. ↑ "Colorado deserves better than Jared Polis". Republican Governors Association. September 29, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  46. ↑ "Stand for Health Freedom Endorses Heidi Ganahl for Colorado Governor". standforhealthfreedom.com. June 4, 2022. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  47. ↑ "Endorsement: Vote O'Dea, Buck for Congress; Ganahl for governor, Anderson for secretary of state". Fort Morgan Times. June 10, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  48. ↑ "ENDORSEMENT: Vote for Ganahl to fix Colorado".
  49. ↑ Wilson, Sara (March 26, 2022). "GOP Governor Candidate Danielle Neuschwanger Lands Endorsement from Michael Flynn" . Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  50. ↑ "Certificate & Results - General Election Statewide Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State.
  51. ↑ Savicki, Drew [@DrewSav] (March 15, 2023). "Colorado Governor @jaredpolis won reelection last year by over 19%, winning CD3, and getting within 3% of winning the 5th District. Often described as a libertarian Democrat, Polis has proven appeal across the aisle. https://t.co/Q3s6ms6Wpn" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 15, 2023. Retrieved March 25, 2023– via Twitter.
  52. ↑ Woodruff, Chase (May 2, 2023). "How tectonic political shifts could spell an upset in Colorado Springs mayor's race". Colorado Newsline. Retrieved June 22, 2023.
  53. ↑ Frank, John (November 9, 2022). "Gov. Jared Polis carries Democrats to big wins in Colorado". Axios. Retrieved November 25, 2022.
  54. ↑ Harden, Mark (November 9, 2022). "Election 2022: Polis wins 2nd term as Colorado governor". Rocky Mountain PBS . Retrieved November 25, 2022.
  55. ↑ Wenzler, Jesse Paul, Elliott (November 9, 2022). "Jared Polis easily beats Heidi Ganahl to secure second term as Colorado's governor". The Colorado Sun . Retrieved November 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  56. ↑ "Colorado voters have faith in statewide elections, concerns about the economy". CU Boulder Today. November 2, 2022. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  57. ↑ "Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More". maristpoll.marist.edu. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
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