2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Last updated

2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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  2020
2024  

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 8, 2022, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2020). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2022 U.S. Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Contents

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

District CPVI
[1]
IncumbentLast result [2] Cook
Nov 7,
2022
[3]
IE
Nov 3,
2022
[4]
Sabato
Nov 7,
2022
[5]
Politico
Oct 27,
2022
[6]
RCP
Nov 6,
2022
[7]
Fox
Oct 21,
2022
[8]
DDHQ
Oct 27,
2022
[9]
538 [lower-alpha 1] [lower-alpha 2]
Nov 8,
2022
[10]
Econ. [lower-alpha 3] [lower-alpha 4]
Nov 4,
2022
[11]
Winner [12]
Alaska at-large R+8 Mary Peltola 51.5% DLean DLean DLean DLean DTossupTossupTossupTossupLean D Mary Peltola (D)
Arizona 1 R+2 David Schweikert 52.2% RTossupLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RSolid RLean R David Schweikert (R)
Arizona 2 R+6 Tom O'Halleran 51.6% DLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip) Eli Crane (R)
Arizona 4 D+2 Greg Stanton 61.6% DLikely DLikely DLean DLean DTossupTossupLikely DLikely DLikely D Greg Stanton (D)
Arizona 6 R+3 Ann Kirkpatrick
(retiring)
55.1% DLean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Lean R (flip) Juan Ciscomani (R)
California 3 R+4New seatLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely R Kevin Kiley (R)
California 6 D+7 Ami Bera 56.6% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DLikely D Ami Bera (D)
California 9 D+5 Josh Harder 55.2% DLean DLikely DLean DLean DTossupLean DLikely DLikely DLikely D Josh Harder (D)
California 13 D+4New seatTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossupLean DLean D John Duarte (R)
California 21 D+9 Jim Costa 59.4% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DLikely D Jim Costa (D)
California 22 D+5 David Valadao 50.4% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossupLean RLean RTossup David Valadao (R)
California 23 R+8 Jay Obernolte 56.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Jay Obernolte (R)
California 25 D+6 Raul Ruiz 60.3% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DSolid DSolid DLikely D Raul Ruiz (D)
California 26 D+8 Julia Brownley 60.6% DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DSolid DLikely D Julia Brownley (D)
California 27 D+4 Mike Garcia 50.0% RTossupTilt RLean RLean RLean RTossupTossupLean RLean D (flip) Mike Garcia (R)
California 40 R+2 Young Kim 50.6% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely RSolid RLikely R Young Kim (R)
California 41 R+3 Ken Calvert 57.1% RLean RSolid RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely R Ken Calvert (R)
California 45 D+2 Michelle Steel 51.1% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLikely RTossup Michelle Steel (R)
California 47 D+3 Katie Porter 53.5% DTossupTilt DLean DLean DTossupTossupLikely DLikely DLikely D Katie Porter (D)
California 49 D+3 Mike Levin 53.1% DTossupTilt DLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupLikely DLikely DLean D Mike Levin (D)
Colorado 3 R+7 Lauren Boebert 51.4% RSolid RSolid RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RSolid RLikely R Lauren Boebert (R)
Colorado 5 R+9 Doug Lamborn 57.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Doug Lamborn (R)
Colorado 7 D+4 Ed Perlmutter
(retiring)
59.1% DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLean DLean DLean DLikely DLikely D Brittany Pettersen (D)
Colorado 8 EVENNew seatTossupTilt RLean RTossupLean RLean RLean RLikely RTossup Yadira Caraveo (D)
Connecticut 2 D+3 Joe Courtney 59.4% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely DLean DLean DLikely DSolid DLikely D Joe Courtney (D)
Connecticut 3 D+7 Rosa DeLauro 58.7% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DSafe D Rosa DeLauro (D)
Connecticut 5 D+3 Jahana Hayes 55.1% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupLean DLean DTossup Jahana Hayes (D)
Florida 2 R+8 Al Lawson (D) and
Neal Dunn (R)
65.1% D; 97.9% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Neal Dunn (R)
Florida 4 R+6New seatSolid R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Safe R (flip) Aaron Bean (R)
Florida 7 R+5 Stephanie Murphy
(retiring)
55.3% DSolid R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Safe R (flip) Cory Mills (R)
Florida 9 D+8 Darren Soto 56.0% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DLikely D Darren Soto (D)
Florida 13 R+6Vacant53.0% DLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Lean R (flip) Anna Paulina Luna (R)
Florida 14 D+8 Kathy Castor 60.3% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Kathy Castor (D)
Florida 15 R+4New seatLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RSolid RLikely R Laurel Lee (R)
Florida 16 R+7 Vern Buchanan 55.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Vern Buchanan (R)
Florida 22 D+7 Lois Frankel 59.0% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DSafe D Lois Frankel (D)
Florida 23 D+5Vacant58.6% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DSolid DLikely DSafe D Jared Moskowitz (D)
Florida 27 EVEN María Elvira Salazar 51.4% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely RTossup María Elvira Salazar (R)
Florida 28 R+2 Carlos A. Giménez 51.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RLikely RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Carlos A. Giménez (R)
Georgia 2 D+3 Sanford Bishop 59.1% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely DTossupLean DLikely DLikely DLean D Sanford Bishop (D)
Georgia 6 R+11New seatSolid R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Solid R (flip)Safe R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Safe R (flip) Rich McCormick (R)
Georgia 12 R+8 Rick W. Allen 58.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Rick W. Allen (R)
Illinois 6 D+3 Sean Casten 52.8% DLean DLikely DLean DLean DTossupLean DLikely DLean DLikely D Sean Casten (D)
Illinois 8 D+6 Raja Krishnamoorthi 73.2% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
Illinois 11 D+5 Bill Foster 63.3% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DSolid DLikely D Bill Foster (D)
Illinois 13 D+3New seatLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)TossupLikely D (flip)Likely D (flip) Nikki Budzinski (D)
Illinois 14 D+4 Lauren Underwood 50.7% DLean DLikely DLean DLikely DTossupLean DLikely DLikely DLikely D Lauren Underwood (D)
Illinois 17 D+2 Cheri Bustos
(retiring)
52.0% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Lean DLean D Eric Sorensen (D)
Indiana 1 D+3 Frank J. Mrvan 56.6% DTossupLean DLean DLean DTossupTossupLikely DLikely DLean D Frank J. Mrvan (D)
Iowa 1 R+3 Mariannette Miller-Meeks 49.9% RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RSolid RLikely RLean R Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson 51.2% RLean RTilt RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely RLean R Ashley Hinson (R)
Iowa 3 R+3 Cindy Axne 48.9% DLean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupTossupTossup Zach Nunn (R)
Kansas 3 R+1 Sharice Davids 53.6% DLean DTilt DLean DLean DTossupTossupLean DLikely DLikely D Sharice Davids (D)
Maine 2 R+6 Jared Golden 53.0% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupTossupTossupTossupLean DTossup Jared Golden (D)
Maryland 1 R+11 Andy Harris 63.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Andy Harris (R)
Maryland 2 D+7 Dutch Ruppersberger 67.7% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DLikely D Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
Maryland 3 D+10 John Sarbanes 69.2% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSolid DLikely D John Sarbanes (D)
Maryland 6 D+2 David Trone 58.8% DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DTossupLean DLikely DLean DTossup David Trone (D)
Massachusetts 9 D+6 Bill Keating 61.3% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DSolid DLikely D Bill Keating (D)
Michigan 3 D+1 Peter Meijer
(lost renomination)
53.0% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)Lean RTossupLean D (flip) Hillary Scholten (D)
Michigan 4 R+5 Bill Huizenga 59.2% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Bill Huizenga (R)
Michigan 7 R+2 Elissa Slotkin 50.9% DTossupTilt DLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossupLean DTossup Elissa Slotkin (D)
Michigan 8 R+1 Dan Kildee 54.4% DLean DLean DLean DLean DTossupTossupTossupLikely DLean D Dan Kildee (D)
Michigan 10 R+3New seatLikely R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Lean R (flip) John James (R)
Michigan 11 D+7 Haley Stevens 50.2% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Haley Stevens (D)
Minnesota 1 R+7 Brad Finstad 51.0% RLikely RSolid RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Brad Finstad (R)
Minnesota 2 D+1 Angie Craig 48.2% DTossupTossupLean DTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean DLikely DLean D Angie Craig (D)
Minnesota 3 D+8 Dean Phillips 55.6% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Dean Phillips (D)
Minnesota 8 R+8 Pete Stauber 56.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Pete Stauber (R)
Missouri 2 R+7 Ann Wagner 51.9% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RLikely RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Ann Wagner (R)
Montana 1 R+6New seatLean RLean RLean RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely R Ryan Zinke
Nebraska 1 R+9 Mike Flood 52.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Mike Flood (R)
Nebraska 2 EVEN Don Bacon 50.8% RTossupTossupLean RTossupLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RTossup Don Bacon (R)
Nevada 1 D+3 Dina Titus 61.8% DTossupTilt DLean DLean DLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Dina Titus (D)
Nevada 2 R+8 Mark Amodei 56.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Mark Amodei (R)
Nevada 3 D+1 Susie Lee 48.8% DTossupTilt DLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean DTossup Susie Lee (D)
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford 50.7% DLean DLean DLean DLean DTossupTossupLean DLikely DLikely D Steven Horsford (D)
New Hampshire 1 EVEN Chris Pappas 51.3% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupLean DTossup Chris Pappas (D)
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Annie Kuster 53.9% DLean DLikely DLikely DLean DTossupLean DLikely DLikely DLikely D Annie Kuster (D)
New Jersey 1 D+10 Donald Norcross 62.5% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Donald Norcross (D)
New Jersey 2 R+5 Jeff Van Drew 51.9% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Jeff Van Drew (R)
New Jersey 3 D+5 Andy Kim 53.2% DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DLean DSolid DLikely DLikely D Andy Kim (D)
New Jersey 5 D+4 Josh Gottheimer 53.2% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely D Josh Gottheimer (D)
New Jersey 7 R+1 Tom Malinowski 50.6% DLean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Tossup Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
New Jersey 9 D+8 Bill Pascrell 65.8% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Bill Pascrell (D)
New Jersey 11 D+6 Mikie Sherrill 53.3% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DSolid DSolid DSafe D Mikie Sherrill (D)
New Mexico 1 D+5 Melanie Stansbury 60.4% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DSolid DLikely D Melanie Stansbury (D)
New Mexico 2 D+1 Yvette Herrell 53.7% RTossupTossupLean RTossupLean RTossupLean RLikely RTossup Gabe Vasquez (D)
New Mexico 3 D+4 Teresa Leger Fernandez 58.7% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLean DLean DLikely DLikely DSolid DSafe D Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
New York 1 R+3 Lee Zeldin
(retiring)
54.9% RLean RLean RLean RLean RSafe RLean RLikely RLikely RLean R Nick LaLota (R)
New York 2 R+3 Andrew Garbarino 52.9% RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RSafe RSolid RLikely RSolid RLikely R Andrew Garbarino (R)
New York 3 D+2 Thomas Suozzi
(retiring)
56.0% DTossupTilt DLean R (flip)Lean DTossupTossupLean DLean DLean D George Santos (R)
New York 4 D+5 Kathleen Rice
(retiring)
56.1% DTossupTilt DLean DLean DTossupLean DLean DLikely DLikely D Anthony D'Esposito (R)
New York 11 R+6 Nicole Malliotakis 53.2% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely R Nicole Malliotakis (R)
New York 17 D+3 Sean Patrick Maloney 55.8% DTossupTossupLean DLean DTossupTossupLikely DLean DLean D Mike Lawler (R)
New York 18 D+1 Pat Ryan 51.9% DLean DTilt DLean DLean DTossupTossupLikely DLean DLean D Pat Ryan (D)
New York 19 EVENNew seatTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupTossup Marc Molinaro (R)
New York 20 D+7 Paul Tonko 61.2% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DLikely D Paul Tonko (D)
New York 22 D+1 John Katko
(retiring)
53.1% RTossupTossupLean RTossupLean RLean RLean RLean RTossup Brandon Williams (R)
New York 25 D+7 Joseph Morelle 59.3% DLikely DLikely DLikely DSolid DTossupLikely DSolid DSolid DLikely D Joseph Morelle (D)
New York 26 D+8 Brian Higgins 69.9% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Brian Higgins (D)
North Carolina 1 D+2 G. K. Butterfield
(retiring)
54.2% DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DTossupLean DLean DSolid DLikely D Don Davis (D)
North Carolina 6 D+4 Kathy Manning 62.3% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DLikely D Kathy Manning (D)
North Carolina 7 R+8 David Rouzer 60.2% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R David Rouzer (R)
North Carolina 9 R+6 Richard Hudson 53.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Richard Hudson (R)
North Carolina 11 R+8 Madison Cawthorn
(lost renomination)
54.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Chuck Edwards (R)
North Carolina 13 R+2New seatTossupTossupLean RTossupLean RLean RLikely RLikely RTossup Wiley Nickel (D)
North Carolina 14 D+6New seatSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DSolid DSafe D Jeff Jackson (D)
Ohio 1 D+2 Steve Chabot 51.8% RTossupTossupLean RTossupLean RLean RTossupLean RTossup Greg Landsman (D)
Ohio 7 R+7 Bob Gibbs
(retiring)
67.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Max Miller (R)
Ohio 9 R+3 Marcy Kaptur 63.1% DLean DLean DLean DLean DTossupLean DLean R (flip)Lean DTossup Marcy Kaptur (D)
Ohio 10 R+4 Mike Turner 58.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Mike Turner (R)
Ohio 13 R+1 Tim Ryan
(retiring)
52.5% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)TossupLikely R (flip)Lean R (flip)Tossup Emilia Sykes (D)
Ohio 15 R+6 Mike Carey 58.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Mike Carey (R)
Oregon 4 D+4 Peter DeFazio
(retiring)
51.5% DLean DTilt DLean DLean DTossupLean DTossupLikely DLean D Val Hoyle (D)
Oregon 5 D+2 Kurt Schrader
(lost renomination)
51.9% DLean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Tossup Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
Oregon 6 D+4New seatTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupTossupTossupLean DLean D Andrea Salinas (D)
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN Brian Fitzpatrick 56.6% RSolid RSolid RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RSolid RSolid RLikely R Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 6 D+5 Chrissy Houlahan 56.1% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely DLean DSolid DSolid DSolid DLikely D Chrissy Houlahan (D)
Pennsylvania 7 R+2 Susan Wild 51.9% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Tossup Susan Wild (D)
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Matt Cartwright 51.8% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Matt Cartwright (D)
Pennsylvania 10 R+5 Scott Perry 53.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean RLikely RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Scott Perry (R)
Pennsylvania 12 D+8 Mike Doyle
(retiring)
69.3% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DSolid DLikely D Summer Lee (D)
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN Conor Lamb
(retiring)
51.1% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)TossupTossup Chris Deluzio (D)
Rhode Island 2 D+4 James Langevin
(retiring)
58.2% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Seth Magaziner (D)
South Carolina 1 R+7 Nancy Mace 50.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Nancy Mace (R)
Tennessee 5 R+9 Jim Cooper
(retiring)
100.0% DLikely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Solid R (flip)Likely R (flip)Solid R (flip)Likely R (flip) Andy Ogles (R)
Texas 15 R+1New seatLikely R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip) Monica De La Cruz (R)
Texas 23 R+5 Tony Gonzales 50.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Tony Gonzales (R)
Texas 28 D+3 Henry Cuellar 58.3% DTossupLean DLean DLean DTossupTossupLean DLikely DLikely D Henry Cuellar (D)
Texas 34 D+9 Vicente Gonzalez (D) and
Mayra Flores (R)
50.5% D; 50.9% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossupTossupTossupLean D (flip) Vicente Gonzalez (D)
Virginia 1 R+6 Rob Wittman 58.2% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Rob Wittman (R)
Virginia 2 R+2 Elaine Luria 51.6% DTossupTilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupTossupTossup Jen Kiggans (R)
Virginia 5 R+7 Bob Good 52.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Bob Good (R)
Virginia 7 D+1 Abigail Spanberger 50.8% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupTossupTossupLean DLean DLean D Abigail Spanberger (D)
Virginia 10 D+6 Jennifer Wexton 56.5% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D Jennifer Wexton (D)
Washington 3 R+5 Jaime Herrera Beutler
(lost renomination)
56.4% RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely R Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Washington 5 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers 61.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RSafe R Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
Washington 6 D+6 Derek Kilmer 59.3% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Derek Kilmer (D)
Washington 8 D+1 Kim Schrier 51.7% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)TossupLean DLean DLean D Kim Schrier (D)
Washington 10 D+7 Marilyn Strickland 49.3% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid DSolid DSafe D Marilyn Strickland (D)
Wisconsin 1 R+3 Bryan Steil 59.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSolid RSolid RLikely R Bryan Steil (R)
Wisconsin 3 R+4 Ron Kind
(retiring)
51.3% DLikely R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Lean R (flip)Solid R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip) Derrick Van Orden (R)
Overall D – 191
R – 211
33 tossups
D – 199
R – 216
20 tossups
D – 198
R – 237
D – 195
R – 213
27 tossups
D – 174
R – 227
38 tossups
D – 186
R – 216
33 tossups
D – 200
R – 223
12 tossups
D – 203
R – 219
13 tossups
D – 200
R – 208
27 tossups
D - 213 Decrease2.svg 9
R - 222 Increase2.svg 9
District CPVI IncumbentPrevious result Cook IE Sabato Politico RCP Fox DDHQ 538 Econ. Winner
  1. FiveThirtyEight has three separate models for their House and Senate ratings: Lite (polling data only), Classic (polls, fundraising, and past voting patterns), and Deluxe (Classic alongside experts' ratings). This table uses the Classic model.
  2. Category ranges:
    • Tossup: <60% both candidates
    • Lean: ≥60%
    • Likely: ≥75%
    • Solid: ≥95%
  3. The Economist runs 10,000 simulations daily to determine their forecast ratings, which are based on statistical probability.
  4. Category ranges:
    • Tossup ("Uncertain"): <65% both parties
    • Lean ("Likely"): 60-85%
    • Likely ("Very Likely"): 85-99%
    • Safe: ≥99%

Generic ballot polls

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2022 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregationDate updatedDates polledDemocraticRepublicanLead
RealClearPolitics November 8, 2022October 18 – November 6, 202245.5%48.0%+2.5
FiveThirtyEight November 8, 2022October 26 – November 8, 202245.7%46.9%+1.2
Average45.6%47.4%+1.8

Party listings

The campaign committees for the two parties (the DCCC and NRCC) publish their own lists of targeted seats.

Democratic-held seats

The NRCC is now targeting 85 Democratic held seats. [13] They released their initial list February 10, 2021 [14] and added 10 seats to the initial list on May 4, 2021 [15] and a further 13 seats November 3, 2021 after the favorable election night results. They added eight additional seats on March 30, 2022. [16] The first two lists were published before redistricting, but the 3rd list begins to incorporate redistricting impacts such as Colorado's 7th congressional district. Seats in bold were included in the DCCC's frontline seats in March 2021 or were added in January 2022. [17] [18]

Republican target seats
  1. Arizona 1 : Tom O'Halleran
  2. Arizona 4 : Greg Stanton
  3. Arizona 6 : Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring)
  4. California 3 : None (new seat)
  5. California 7 : Ami Bera
  6. California 9 : Josh Harder
  7. California 13 : Barbara Lee (running in California 12 )
  8. California 20 : Jim Costa
  9. California 26 : Julia Brownley
  10. California 36 : Raul Ruiz
  11. California 47 : Katie Porter
  12. California 49 : Mike Levin
  13. Colorado 7 : Ed Perlmutter (retiring)
  14. Connecticut 2 : Joe Courtney
  15. Connecticut 5 : Jahana Hayes
  16. Florida 7 : Stephanie Murphy (retiring)
  17. Florida 9 : Darren Soto
  18. Florida 13 : Charlie Crist (retiring)
  19. Florida 14 : Kathy Castor
  20. Florida 22 : Ted Deutch (retiring)
  21. Georgia 2 : Sanford Bishop
  22. Georgia 6 : Lucy McBath (running in Georgia's 7th congressional district )
  23. Georgia 7 : Carolyn Bourdeaux (lost renomination)
  24. Illinois 3 : Marie Newman (lost renomination)
  25. Illinois 6 : Sean Casten
  26. Illinois 8 : Raja Krishnamoorthi
  27. Illinois 11 : Bill Foster
  28. Illinois 14 : Lauren Underwood
  29. Illinois 17 : Cheri Bustos (retiring)
  30. Indiana 1 : Frank Mrvan
  31. Iowa 3 : Cindy Axne
  32. Kansas 3 : Sharice Davids
  33. Maine 2 : Jared Golden
  34. Maryland 2 : Dutch Ruppersberger
  35. Maryland 3 : John Sarbanes
  36. Maryland 6 : David Trone
  37. Michigan 7 : Elissa Slotkin
  38. Michigan 8 : Dan Kildee
  39. Michigan 11 : Haley Stevens
  40. Minnesota 2 : Angie Craig
  41. Minnesota 3 : Dean Phillips
  42. Nevada 1 : Dina Titus
  43. Nevada 3 : Susie Lee
  44. Nevada 4 : Steven Horsford
  45. New Hampshire 1 : Chris Pappas
  46. New Hampshire 2 : Annie Kuster
  47. New Jersey 3 : Andy Kim
  48. New Jersey 5 : Josh Gottheimer
  49. New Jersey 7 : Tom Malinowski
  50. New Jersey 11 : Mikie Sherrill
  51. New Mexico 1 : Melanie Stansbury
  52. New Mexico 3 : Teresa Leger Fernandez
  53. New York 3 : Thomas Suozzi
  54. New York 4 : Kathleen Rice (retiring)
  55. New York 17 : Mondaire Jones (lost renomination)
  56. New York 18 : Sean Patrick Maloney (running in New York's 17th congressional district )
  57. New York 20 : Paul Tonko
  58. New York 25 : Joe Morelle
  59. New York 26 : Brian Higgins
  60. North Carolina 1 : G. K. Butterfield (retiring)
  61. North Carolina 2 : Deborah Ross
  62. North Carolina 6 : Kathy Manning
  63. North Carolina 14 : Jeff Jackson
  64. Ohio 9 : Marcy Kaptur
  65. Ohio 13 : Tim Ryan (retiring)
  66. Oregon 4 : Peter DeFazio (retiring)
  67. Oregon 5 : Kurt Schrader (lost renomination)
  68. Oregon 6 : None (new seat)
  69. Pennsylvania 4 : Madeleine Dean
  70. Pennsylvania 5 : Mary Gay Scanlon
  71. Pennsylvania 6 : Chrissy Houlahan
  72. Pennsylvania 7 : Susan Wild
  73. Pennsylvania 8 : Matt Cartwright
  74. Pennsylvania 12 : Mike Doyle (retiring)
  75. Pennsylvania 17 : Conor Lamb (retiring)
  76. Tennessee 5 : Jim Cooper (retiring)
  77. Texas 7 : Lizzie Fletcher
  78. Texas 15 : Vicente Gonzalez (running in Texas's 34th congressional district )
  79. Texas 28 : Henry Cuellar
  80. Texas 32 : Colin Allred
  81. Virginia 2 : Elaine Luria
  82. Virginia 7 : Abigail Spanberger
  83. Virginia 10 : Jennifer Wexton
  84. Washington 8 : Kim Schrier
  85. Wisconsin 3 : Ron Kind (retiring)

Republican-held seats

On April 6, 2021, the DCCC released their list of target seats, including open and Republican-held seats. [19] This list was published before redistricting. Several seats were added in January 2022. [20] [21]

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  13. "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 13 New Targets". November 3, 2021.
  14. "NRCC Announces 47 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities for 2022 Cycle". NRCC. February 10, 2021. Retrieved February 22, 2021.
  15. "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 10 New Targets Following Reapportionment". nrcc.org. NRCC. May 4, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  16. "House GOP campaign arm adds new seats to target list". March 30, 2022.
  17. "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". DCCC. March 1, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
  18. "DCCC expands list of vulnerable House Democrats". The Hill. January 27, 2022.
  19. "DCCC Announces 2021-2022 Districts In Play". dccc.org. DCCC. April 6, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
  20. "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". nbcnews.com. NBC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  21. > "DCCC Announces Changes To 2022 House Battlefield". dccc.org. DCCC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 29, 2022.