2010 California gubernatorial election

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2010 California gubernatorial election
Flag of California.svg
←  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  →
Turnout59.59% [1] Increase2.svg26.82pp
  Edmund G Brown Jr (3x4a).jpg Meg Whitman crop (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Jerry Brown Meg Whitman
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote5,428,1494,127,391
Percentage53.8%40.9%
2010 California gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Brown:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Whitman:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Arnold Schwarzenegger
Republican

Elected Governor

Jerry Brown
Democratic

The 2010 California gubernatorial election was held November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of California. The primary elections were held on June 8, 2010. Because constitutional office holders in California have been prohibited from serving more than two terms in the same office since November 6, 1990, incumbent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger was term-limited and thus was ineligible to run for re-election to a third term. Former governor Jerry Brown, to whom the term limits did not apply due to a grandfather clause, defeated Meg Whitman in the general election and was sworn into office on January 3, 2011. As of 2023, this is the last time the governor’s office in California changed partisan control.

Contents

Republican primary

Republican nominee Meg Whitman campaigning Megwhitmanheadshot (1).jpg
Republican nominee Meg Whitman campaigning

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredTom
Campbell*		Meg
Whitman		Steve
Poizner		Peter
Foy*
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky January 5–22, 200915%14%4%1%
The Field Poll February 20 – March 1, 200918%21%7%—
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky May 25, 200913%10%8%1%
Research 2000 August 9, 200919%24%9%—
The Field Poll September 18 – October 5, 200920%22%9%—
USC/Los Angeles Times October 27 – November 3, 200927%35%10%—
Public Policy Institute of California December 16, 200912%32%8%—
The Field Poll January 5–17, 2010—45%17%—
22%36%9%—
Public Policy Institute of California January 27, 2010—41%11%—
Research 2000 March 10, 2010—52%19%—
The Field Poll March 17, 2010—63%14%—
Public Policy Institute of California March 24, 2010—61%11%—
USC/Los Angeles Times March 23–30, 2010—60%20%—
Survey USA April 19–21, 2010—49%27%—
Survey USA May 6–9, 2010—39%37%—
Research 2000 May 17–19, 2010—46%36%—
Public Policy Institute of California May 19, 2010—38%29%—
Public Policy Polling May 21–23, 2010—51%26%—
USC/Los Angeles Times May 19–26, 2010—53%29%—
Survey USA June 3–6, 2010—59%30%—

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Whitman--70-80% Whitman--60-70% Whitman--50-60% 2010 California Republican gubernatorial primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Whitman—70–80%
  Whitman—60–70%
  Whitman—50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Meg Whitman 1,529,534 64.4
Republican Steve Poizner 632,94026.7
Republican Lawrence Naritelli54,2022.3
Republican Robert Newman38,4621.7
Republican Ken Miller36,6091.5
Republican Bill Chambers34,2431.4
Republican Douglas Hughes26,0851.0
Republican David Tully-Smith24,9781.0
Republican Steven Paul Mozena (write-in)260.0
Total votes2,377,079 100.0

Democratic primary

Democratic nominee Jerry Brown campaigning Jerry Brown (5132717492) (cropped).jpg
Democratic nominee Jerry Brown campaigning

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredDianne
Feinstein*		Jerry
Brown		Antonio
Villaraigosa*		Gavin
Newsom*		John
Garamendi*		Jack
O'Connell*		Steve
Westly*		Bill
Lockyer*
Capitol Weekly/Probolsky January 22–25, 200936%14%9%9%4%3%1%––
Lake Research Partners February 17–19, 2009––27%20%14%8%1%3%––
The Field Poll February 20 – March 1, 200938%16%16%10%4%1%2%1%
––26%22%16%8%2%2%2%
Tulchin Poll April 23, 2009––31%12%16%11%6%––––
Capital Weekly May 25, 2009––24%15%16%7%5%3%––
J. Moore June 20, 2009––47%––26%––––––––
Research 2000 June 10–16, 2009––29%––20%––––––––
40%27%––16%––––––––
The Field Poll September 18 – October 5, 2009––47%––27%––––––––

Results

Results by county: Brown-->90% Brown--80-90% Brown--70-80% Brown--60-70% Brown--50-60% 2010 California Democratic gubernatorial primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Brown—>90%
  Brown—80-90%
  Brown—70-80%
  Brown—60-70%
  Brown—50-60%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jerry Brown 2,021,189 84.4
Democratic Richard Aguirre95,5964.0
Democratic Charles Pineda94,6694.0
Democratic Vibert Greene54,2252.3
Democratic Joe Symmon54,1222.3
Democratic Lowell Darling 39,9301.6
Democratic Peter Schurman35,4501.4
Democratic Nadia B. Smalley (write-in)1060.0
Total votes2,395,287 100.0

American Independent primary

Candidates

Results

California American Independent gubernatorial primary, 2010
CandidateVotes %
Chelene Nightingale24,00058.1
Markham Robinson17,32741.9
Total votes41,327 100
Voter turnout10.4%

Green primary

Candidates

Results

California Green gubernatorial primary, 2010
CandidateVotes %
Laura Wells 17,54879.5
Deacon Alexander4,53320.5
Total votes22,081 100
Voter turnout19.6%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

California Libertarian gubernatorial primary, 2010
CandidateVotes %
Dale Ogden17,477100
Voter turnout20.2%

Peace and Freedom primary

Candidates

Results

Results by county: Alvarez 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 100% Alexander 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 100% Tie 30-40% 50% No Vote 2010 California gubernatorial Peace and Freedom primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Alvarez
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   100%
  Alexander
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   100%
  Tie
  •   30-40%
  •   50%
  No Vote
California Peace and Freedom gubernatorial primary, 2010
CandidateVotes %
Carlos Alvarez1,90645.3
Stewart Alexander 1,69340.2
Mohammad Arif61314.5
Total votes4,212 100
Voter turnout7.4%

General election

Campaign

Brown's campaign logo Jerry Brown 2010.png
Brown's campaign logo
Whitman's campaign logo MEG 2010.png
Whitman's campaign logo

Both Whitman and Brown were criticized for negative campaigning during the election. [5] During their final debate at the 2010 Women's Conference a week before the election, moderator Matt Lauer asked both candidates to pull attack ads for the rest of the election, which elicited loud cheers from the audience. [5] Brown agreed and picked one ad each of his and Whitman's that he thought, if Whitman would agree, should be the only ones run, but Whitman, who had been loudly cheered earlier as the prospective first woman governor of the state, was booed when she stated that she would keep "the ads that talk about where Gov. Brown stands on the issues." [6]

The Los Angeles Times reported that nearly $250 million was spent on the Governor's race. [7] At least two spending records were broken during the campaign. Whitman broke personal spending records by spending $140 million of her own money on the campaign, [8] and independent expenditures exceeded $31.7 million, with almost $25 million of that spent in support of Brown. [9]

In an interview with CNN, the reporter opined that Whitman was hurt most during the campaign by a matter involving Nicky Diaz, her former Mexican maid, whom Whitman fired after Diaz asked for help as she was an illegal immigrant. [8]

Candidates' stances on issues

Republican supporter holds a sign criticizing Brown and other Democrats on jobs. Rally (5106111574) (cropped).jpg
Republican supporter holds a sign criticizing Brown and other Democrats on jobs.

Jobs: Meg Whitman [10]
1. Eliminate small business start-up tax ($800 fee for new business start-ups)
2. Eliminate factory tax
3. Increase R&D tax credit (increase from 15% to 20%)
4. Promote investments in agriculture
5. Eliminate the state tax on capital gains

Registered nurses demonstrate their union support of Brown (and US Senate candidate Barbara Boxer). Rally (5106197200) (cropped).jpg
Registered nurses demonstrate their union support of Brown (and US Senate candidate Barbara Boxer).

Jerry Brown [11]
1. Stimulate clean energy jobs (build 12,000MW of localized electricity generation; build 8,000MW of large-scale renewables; appoint a Clean Energy Czar)
2. Invest in infrastructure/construction jobs (federal dollars for projects; prioritize water needs; high-speed rail; strengthen the port system; prioritize use of existing funds for job creation; infill development
3. Create strike team to focus on job retention
4. Cut regulations (speed up regulatory processes and eliminate duplicative functions; develop CEQA guidelines; fully utilize administrative law; update outdated technology systems
5. Increase manufacturing jobs
6. Deliver targeted workforce training programs
7. Invest in education

Education: Meg Whitman [12]
1. Direct more money to classroom
2. Reward outstanding teachers
3. Eliminate cap on charter schools
4. Grade public schools A-F
5. Establish fast-track parent process for charter school conversions
6. Invest $1 billion in UC and CSU University systems
7. Utilize alternative paths to the classroom to attract high quality teachers

Jerry Brown [13]
1. Higher education (create new state master plan; focus on community colleges and transfer credits)
2. Overhaul state testing program
3. Change school funding formulas and consolidate the 62 existing categorical programs
4. Teacher recruitment and training
5. Simplify the Education Code and return more decision-making to local school districts
6. A more balanced and creative school curriculum (science, history, and humanities; experiment with online, etc.)
7. Place special emphasis on teaching science, technology, engineering, and math
8. Increase proficiency in English
9. Improve high school graduation rates
10. Charter schools
11. Magnet or theme schools
12. Citizenship and character

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [14] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [15] Lean D (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [16] Lean D (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Lean D (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [18] Lean D (flip)October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jerry
Brown (D)		Meg
Whitman (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports January 14, 2009500±4.5%40%38%––––
Research 2000 August 9, 2009600±4.0%42%36%––––
Rasmussen Reports September 24, 2009500±4.5%44%35%3%18%
The Field Poll Sept. 15–Oct. 5, 20091,005±3.2%50%29%––21%
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 2009500±4.5%41%41%3%14%
Public Policy Institute of California December 16, 20092,004±2.0%43%37%––20%
The Field Poll January 5–17, 2010958±3.3%46%36%––18%
Rasmussen Reports January 19, 2010500±4.5%43%39%7%11%
Public Policy Institute of California January 27, 20102,001±2.0%41%36%––23%
Rasmussen Reports February 15, 2010500±4.5%43%43%6%8%
Research 2000 March 10, 2010600±4.0%45%41%––14%
Rasmussen Reports March 15, 2010500±4.5%40%40%6%14%
The Field Poll March 17, 2010748±3.7%43%46%––11%
Public Policy Institute of California March 24, 20102,002±2.0%39%44%––17%
USC/Los Angeles Times March 23–30, 2010––––41%44%––––
Rasmussen Reports April 19, 2010500±4.5%44%38%9%9%
Public Policy Institute of California May 9–16, 20102,003±2.0%42%37%––21%
Research 2000 May 17–19, 2010600±4.0%46%42%––18%
Public Policy Polling May 21–23, 2010921±3.2%48%36%––16%
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010500±4.5%45%41%8%7%
USC/Los Angeles Times May 19–26, 2010––––44%38%––––
Rasmussen Reports June 9, 2010500±4.5%45%44%4%7%
Reuters June 30, 2010600±4.5%45%39%3%14%
The Field Poll June 22-July 5, 20101,005±3.2%44%43%––13%
Survey USA July 8–11, 2010614±4.0%39%46%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010500±4.5%46%47%4%3%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010614±3.95%46%40%––14%
Rasmussen Reports August 3, 2010750±4.0%43%41%6%10%
Survey USA August 9–11, 2010602± 4.1%43%44%—13%
Rasmussen Reports August 24, 2010750±4.0%40%48%6%6%
Survey USA August 31-September 1, 2010569±4.2%40%47%9%4%
Rasmussen Reports September 6, 2010750±4.0%45%48%3%4%
CNN September 2–7, 2010866± 3.5%46%48%——
FOX News September 11, 20101,000± 3%43%49%4%4%
Public Policy Polling September 14–16, 2010630±3.9%47%42%––12%
Field Poll September 14–21, 2010599±4.1%41%41%––18%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research September 18, 20101,000±3.0%45%45%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports September 20, 2010750±4.0%47%46%4%3%
Survey USA September 19–21, 2010610±4.0%46%43%8%3%
The Los Angeles Times/USC September 15–22, 20101,500±3.3%49%44%----
PPIC September 19–26, 20101,104±3%37%38%7%18%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation September 24–28, 2010786±3.5%52%43%5%3%
Rasmussen Reports October 3, 2010750±4.0%49%44%4%4%
Reuters/Ipsos October 4, 2010600±4%50%43%——
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 6, 2010501±4.5%53%41%6%—
Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2010750±4.0%50%44%2%4%
Los Angeles Times/USC October 13–20, 20101,501±2.5%52%39%3%6%
Reuters (report)October 12–14, 2010601± 4.0%48%44%3%6%
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen October 16, 20101,000±3%48%43%4%4%
PPIC October 10–17, 20101,067±3.1%44%36%4%16%
SurveyUSA October 15–18, 2010621±4%47%40%8%5%
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2010750±4%48%42%4%6%
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen October 23, 20101,000±3%50%41%6%3%
Suffolk University Archived 2010-11-28 at the Wayback Machine October 21–24, 2010600±4%50%42%5%3%
CNN/Time October 20–26, 2010888±3.5%51%44%2%2%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010750±4%49%45%2%3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 28–29, 2010486±4.5%49%44%7%—
Survey USA October 26–31, 2010587± 4%48%37%6%9%
Public Policy Polling Reports)October 29–31, 2010882± 3.3%51%46%—3%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDates administeredSteve
Poizner (R)		Jerry
Brown (D)
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 201042%43%
Public Policy Polling May 21–23, 201032%48%
Research 2000 May 17–19, 201037%47%
PPIC May 201032%45%
Rasmussen Reports April 19, 201032%50%
PPIC March 24, 201031%46%
Rasmussen Reports March 15, 201027%42%
Research 2000 March 10, 201033%48%
Rasmussen Reports February 15, 201034%46%
PPIC January 27, 201029%44%
Rasmussen Reports January 19, 201035%45%
The Field Poll January 5–17, 201031%48%
PPIC December 16, 200931%47%
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 200932%43%
The Field Poll September 18–Oct. 5, 200925%50%
Rasmussen Reports September 24, 200932%45%
Research 2000 August 9, 200934%43%
Lake Research Partners February 17–19, 200930%41%

Results

California gubernatorial election, 2010 [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jerry Brown 5,428,149 53.8% +14.86%
Republican Meg Whitman 4,127,39140.9%-15.00%
American Independent Chelene Nightingale166,3121.7%+0.94%
Libertarian Dale Ogden150,8951.5%+0.17%
Green Laura Wells 129,2241.2%-1.09%
Peace and Freedom Carlos Alvarez92,8510.9%+0.11%
Write-in 3630.00%±0.00%
Total votes10,095,185 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 "Statement of the Vote - November 2, 2010 General Election" (PDF). California Secretary of State.
  2. ↑ Bunia, Dena (February 17, 2010). "Feinstein rules out race for governor". Orange County Register . Retrieved April 2, 2010.
  3. ↑ Garofoli, Joe (February 17, 2010). "Feinstein won't make run for governor". San Francisco Chronicle . Retrieved April 2, 2010.
  4. ↑ Coté, John (February 17, 2010). "It's official: Newsom's running for lieutenant governor". San Francisco Chronicle . Retrieved March 12, 2010.
  5. 1 2 Whitman, Brown In The Hot Seat Over Negative Ads by Ina Jaffe.
  6. ↑ Brown, Whitman Challenged to Pull Negative Ads in California Governor Race Archived 2014-01-18 at the Wayback Machine PBS Newshour, David Chalian and Terrance Burlij, October 27, 2010.
  7. ↑ "PolitiCal". Los Angeles Times.
  8. 1 2 "How Jerry Brown got back in the governor's saddle", Ashley Fantz, CNN, November 3, 2010. Fetched from URL on November 3, 2010.
  9. ↑ "PolitiCal". Los Angeles Times.
  10. ↑ "Jobs, Meg Whitman for Governor". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on May 18, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  11. ↑ "JOBS FOR CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  12. ↑ "Education, Meg Whitman for Governor". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 22, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Education – Jerry Brown for Governor". October 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
  14. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
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