2012 Belizean general election

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2012 Belizean general election
Flag of Belize.svg
  2008 7 March 2012 2015  

All 31 seats in the House of Representatives
16 seats needed for a majority
Turnout73.18%
 First partySecond party
  Belizean Prime Minister, Dean Barrow in London, 27 June 2013 (cropped).jpg Francis Fonseca 2022.jpg
Leader Dean Barrow Francis Fonseca
Party UDP PUP
Last election25 seats6 seats
Seats won1714
Seat changeDecrease2.svg8Increase2.svg8
Popular vote64,97661,832
Percentage50.43%47.99%

Belize general election 2012 - Results by Constituency.svg
Results by constituency

Prime Minister before election

Dean Barrow
UDP

Subsequent Prime Minister

Dean Barrow
UDP

General elections were held in Belize on 7 March 2012 [1] to elect all 31 members of the Belize House of Representatives as well as offices in the various local governments. The election was run by the Elections and Boundaries Commission's Elections and Boundaries Department. Dean Barrow and his United Democratic Party (UDP) were re-elected, but lost eight seats to the opposition People's United Party (PUP) to maintain a slim 17-14 majority in the Belize House. [2] [3] The upper house of the Belize National Assembly, the Senate, was appointed after the election by the UDP-led government in accordance with the Constitution of Belize.

Contents

Contesting parties

Prime Minister Dean Barrow's United Democratic Party (UDP) was the incumbent in the election with his party holding 25 seats at dissolution. The opposition People's United Party (PUP), led by Francis Fonseca since late 2011, held the other seats in the Belize House. An unrepresented coalition of smaller parties ran in nine of the 31 constituencies under the banner of the Belize Unity Alliance. [4]

Campaign

The UDP's primary campaign promise was to renegotiate the terms of a US$550 million bond repayment, which Barrow said would be his first task if re-elected. The bond accounted for 40% of Belize's economic output and half of the national debt, making Belize the 13th most indebted state in the world in 2012. The interest on the debt was scheduled to cost US$46 million in the year, which was 12% of the country's revenues at the time affected its ability to raise future funds after credit rating agencies downgraded the sovereign credit status to "junk." Conversely, Fonseca said that he would abide by the obligation to pay off the debt with promises to grow the country's current US$1.25 billion economy.

Another campaign theme was the issue of oil drilling off the coast of the country within proximity of the Belize Barrier Reef after Belize started exporting oil in 2006. However, opinion polls showed opposition to further oil exploration. Barrow promised to hold a referendum on the issue, while Fonseca pledged a moratorium over continued exploration.

The Belize Unity Alliance actively campaigned in such locales as San Pedro, the biggest town on Ambergris Caye, off the Belize coast, supporting independent candidates and calling for votes for the party. [4] However, the coalition failed to make significant inroads and was not competitive in any of the 31 Belize House constituencies under the country's first past the post electoral system.

Unofficial referendum

On 29 February, Oceana, a member of the Belize Coalition to Save Our National Heritage, held an informal referendum that they called the "People's Referendum". The "referendum" consisted of 51 polling stations, including two mobile polling stations, staffed by volunteers over the issue of oil drilling. A previous attempt to hold the referendum alongside the election was rejected after 40% of the petitioned signatures were disqualified due to double signatories and mismatched names with the official voter rolls.[ citation needed ] The voter turnout was 28,000. The group's vice president, Audrey Matura-Shepherd, said that the referendum sought to use "the law to force the government to hear the people."

Opinion polls

Opinion polls suggested a tight race with many undecided voters. [4] [5]

A poll conducted on 17 February 2012, the day of nominations for running in the election by former politician Derek Aikman, showed that the UDP held a majority of 16 seats and the PUP leading in nine seats, including Orange Walk Central, which they had won in the last poll; Fort George, Pickstock, Belize Rural South, Corozal Southeast, Corozal Bay, Cayo North, Cayo West, and Orange Walk North. The UDP led in Queen's Square, Port Loyola, Caribbean Shores, Mesopotamia, Collet, Lake Independence, Corozal North, Belmopan, Cayo Northeast, Cayo Central, and Orange Walk South. The other seats that could play the role of kingmaker included Albert, Freetown, Belize Rural North and Central, Dangriga and Stann Creek West, Toledo East and West, Corozal Southwest, Cayo South and Orange Walk East.

Another poll by Aikman on 2 March showed a large lead for the UDP, though many voters were willing to support PUP. The poll was of 8,847 voters, or 4.97%. The UDP's 15% lead in the nomination day poll fell to a 4% gap with a lead of 30% to 26% on 2 March. The BUA also recorded 1% support in the Belize Rural South and Belmopan. Undecided voters were at 43%. [5]

Conduct

An Organization of American States (OAS) monitoring group observed the poll. The team was led by the former US Ambassador to Honduras Frank Almaguer; the team also comprised observers from Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Barbados, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Martinique, Mexico, the United States and Venezuela. The Organization of American States Electoral Observation Mission (OAS/EOM) was present in all six districts. [5] Afterwards the election was praised by the OAS as an "exemplary practice for the region." [6]

Results

The total number of eligible voters was 178,054, out of a population of just over 300,000. There were 74 total candidates and 320 polling stations. For the simultaneous local elections, 97,979 of the voters had the choice to choose from 170 candidates at 168 of the polling stations. [5]

The UDP did well in Belize City, holding all of their constituencies there as well as picking up Lake Independence and Albert. However the PUP made significant gains in the rural constituencies, especially in the south where they swept the constituencies in the Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. [7]

Belize Chambre des representants 2012.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
United Democratic Party 64,97650.4317–8
People's United Party 61,83247.9914+8
People's National Party 8280.6400
Vision Inspired by the People 3820.3000
Independents 8220.6400
Total128,840100.00310
Valid votes128,84098.88
Invalid/blank votes1,4631.12
Total votes130,303100.00
Registered voters/turnout178,05473.18
Source: Elections and Boundaries Department

By constituency

DivisionElectorateTurnout%CandidatePartyVotes%
Albert 3,1801,88659.31Herman R. Longsworth United Democratic Party 1,03454.83
David Craig People's United Party 80742.79
Rejected votes452.39
Belize Rural Central 5,9203,91766.17 Dolores Balderamos-García People's United Party 2,00551.19
Michael "Hutchy" Hutchinson United Democratic Party 1,80145.98
Fred Hunter Sr. People's National Party 741.89
Rejected votes370.94
Belize Rural North 5,4043,77069.76 Edmond Castro United Democratic Party 2,10355.78
Arthur Saldivar People's United Party 1,56841.59
Rufus X People's National Party 491.30
Rejected votes100.27
Belize Rural South 7,1004,86168.46Jose Manuel "Junior" Heredia United Democratic Party 2,47951.00
Patty Arceo People's United Party 2,02641.68
"Bobby" Robert Lopez Vision Inspired by the People 3326.83
William "Mike" Campbell Independent 240.49
Rejected votes1262.59
Belmopan 7,7805,60372.02 John B. Saldivar United Democratic Party 2,77549.53
Amin Hegar People's United Party 2,55745.64
Richard Smith People's National Party 2304.10
Rejected votes410.73
Caribbean Shores 5,1173,36365.72Santino "Santi" Castillo United Democratic Party 2,00159.50
David Hoy People's United Party 1,32539.40
Rejected votes371.10
Cayo Central 7,1805,90082.17 Rene Montero United Democratic Party 2,52242.75
Collet Emmanuel Montejo People's United Party 2,47842.00
Rejected votes721.22
Cayo North 6,2134,64174.70Joseph Mahmud People's United Party 2,38251.33
Salvador Fernandez United Democratic Party 1,98542.77
Marcel Bedran Independent 1914.12
Rejected votes831.79
Cayo North East 5,5484,12274.30 Elvin Penner United Democratic Party 2,05149.76
Orlando "Landy" Habet People's United Party 2,03449.34
Rejected votes370.90
Cayo South 6,9054,67767.73Julius Espat People's United Party 2,56854.91
Ramon Francisco Witz United Democratic Party 2,10945.09
Rejected votes00.00
Cayo West 6,3514,89877.12 Erwin Rafael Contreras United Democratic Party 3,07962.86
Oscar Sabido People's United Party 1,74535.63
Rejected votes741.51
Collet 4,6273,04665.83 Patrick Jason Faber United Democratic Party 1,94963.99
Carolyn Trench-Sandiford People's United Party 1,06034.80
Rejected votes371.21
Corozal Bay 6,2374,65274.59 Pablo Marin United Democratic Party 2,34050.30
Gregorio "Papas" Garcia People's United Party 2,19247.12
Carlos Javier Sawers Vision Inspired by the People 501.07
Rejected votes701.50
Corozal North 6,2335,15282.66Hugo Amilcar Patt United Democratic Party 2,67351.88
Valdemar Isidro Castillo People's United Party 2,46447.83
Rejected votes150.29
Corozal South East 6,5495,60985.65Florencio Julian Marin, Jr. People's United Party 2,99953.47
Raul Fabian Rosado United Democratic Party 2,58746.12
Rejected votes230.41
Corozal South West 5,7454,67481.36Ramiro Ramirez People's United Party 2,15346.06
Gabriel Alberto Martinez United Democratic Party 2,12045.36
Angel Roberto Campos Independent 3848.22
Rejected votes170.36
Dangriga 5,9043,82764.82Ivan Michael Ramos People's United Party 2,03653.20
Arthur William "Turo" Roches United Democratic Party 1,69944.40
Mateo Tomas Polanco People's National Party 370.97
Rejected votes561.46
Fort George 3,1331,94161.95 Said Musa People's United Party 1,20261.93
George Gough United Democratic Party 71536.84
Rejected votes241.24
Freetown 4,2302,99970.90 Francis W. Fonseca People's United Party 1,55851.95
Lee Mark Chang United Democratic Party 1,40846.95
Rejected votes331.10
Lake Independence 5,1453,13961Mark Anthony King United Democratic Party 1,54449.19
Martin Galvez People's United Party 1,37243.71
Carlos A. Diaz Independent 2237.10
Rejected votes00.00
Mesopotamia 3,7102,25660.81 Michael Finnegan United Democratic Party 1,84181.60
Philip Palacio People's United Party 38016.84
Rejected votes351.55
Orange Walk Central 6,6945,19877.65 Juan Antonio "Johnny" Briceño People's United Party 3,04258.52
Denny Grijalva United Democratic Party 2,15641.48
Rejected votes00.00
Orange Walk East 6,9175,25776.00Marco Tulio Mendez People's United Party 2,76152.52
Orlando Alexander Burns United Democratic Party 2,49647.48
Rejected votes420.80
Orange Walk North 7,0615,82282.45 Gaspar "Gapi" Vega United Democratic Party 3,40558.49
Jorge Alberto "George" Briceno People's United Party 2,35740.48
Rejected votes601.03
Orange Walk South 6,8375,62182.21Jose Abelardo Mai People's United Party 2,96852.80
Rosendo "Chendo" Urbina United Democratic Party 2,60546.34
Rejected votes480.85
Pickstock 3,2431,99461.49 Wilfred "Sedi" Elrington United Democratic Party 1,03852.06
Francis Donald Smith People's United Party 95647.94
Rejected votes371.86
Port Loyola 4,4692,83063.33 Anthony "Boots" Martinez United Democratic Party 1,78963.22
Gilroy Usher, Sr. People's United Party 99034.98
Rejected votes511.80
Queen's Square 3,9602,57765.08 Dean Oliver Barrow United Democratic Party 2,03979.12
Anthony Glenford Sylvestre, Jr. People's United Party 49019.01
Rejected votes481.86
Stann Creek West 7,8886,12377.62Rodwell Ferguson People's United Party 3,27253.44
Melvin Hulse United Democratic Party 2,69844.06
Charles Berisford Leslie Jr. People's National Party 1272.07
Rejected votes260.42
Toledo East 6,6404,83572.82Michael Joseph Espat People's United Party 2,41749.99
Peter Eden Martinez United Democratic Party 2,07742.96
William Wil Maheia People's National Party 2825.83
Rejected votes591.22
Toledo West 6,1345,06882.62Oscar Requena People's United Party 3,16562.45
Juan Coy United Democratic Party 1,85836.66
Martin Ack People's National Party 290.57
Rejected votes160.32

Reactions

Domestic

Dean Barrow reacted to the victory by assuring the public that he would quickly appoint a delegation to renegotiate the terms of the so-called superbond with foreign financiers. Analysts at JP Morgan and Nomura Securities have estimated the government's chances of obtaining more favourable repayment terms after the positive completion of the electoral process. According to Nomura Securities analyst Boris Segura, the bond's interest could be reduced to 5% and the maturity extended to 2042. [2] He also announced that he would approach Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez to supply Belize with low-cost petroleum products. He cited this as in accordance with his self-declared pro-poor agenda and efforts to lower living costs. [8]

PUP's Francis Fonseca had not conceded defeat the following day after the release of the official result. PUP claimed there were irregularities and filed a complaint against the result in three constituencies. [8]

International

The OAS/EOM noted several issues during the campaign and voting process, such as the deployment of public resources, including government vehicles and drivers, for the use of the ruling party. They also claimed to have seen cases of vote buying. [8] Though they praised the peaceful election procedure, the professionalism of the polling officials and the adequate representation of women in the process. [9] Faced with the poll-watchers' report, Barrow recognised that though the election had not been perfect, but insisted that in an overall view it could be considered free and fair. [8]

References

  1. Aaron Humes, "Barrow rolls the dice March 7!", Amandala Online, 2 February 2012.
  2. 1 2 Hughes, Krista (8 March 2012), Belize steps closer to bond talks with ruling party win, Reuters, archived from the original on 14 July 2014
  3. Britell, Alexander (8 March 2012), "Belize's UDP Wins Narrow Re-election; Opposition Gains Eight Seats", Caribbean Journal
  4. 1 2 3 Hughes, Krista (7 March 2012), Belize votes with financial future at stake, Reuters
  5. 1 2 3 4 Belize elections underway, Caribbean 360, 7 March 2012
  6. "Preliminary Statement by the OAS Electoral Observation Mission to Belize" Organization of American States, 8 March 2012. (accessed 23 October 2014)
  7. Belize election maps, Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive. (accessed 20 November 2014)
  8. 1 2 3 4 "Reelected Belize Prime Minister Will Turn To Chavez For Fuel", Belizean, 8 March 2012, archived from the original on 18 January 2013
  9. "Belize elections receive OAS nod of approval", Caribbean 360, 9 March 2012