In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatantcasualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by or to a particular belligerent, casualties inflicted in one aspect or arena of a conflict or to casualties in the conflict as a whole. Casualties usually refer to both dead and injured. In some calculations, deaths resulting from famine and epidemics are included.
Starting in the 1980s, it has often been claimed that 90 percent of the victims of modern wars are civilians,[1][2][3][4] repeated in academic publications as recently as 2014.[5] These claims, though widely believed and correct regarding some wars, do not hold up as a generalization across the majority of wars, particularly in the case of wars such as those in former Yugoslavia and in Afghanistan which are central to the claims.[6] Some of the citations can be traced back to a 1991 monograph from Uppsala University[7] which includes refugees and internally displaced persons as casualties. Other authors cite Ruth Leger Sivard's 1991 monograph in which the author states "In the decade of the 1980s, the proportion of civilian deaths jumped to 74 percent of the total and in 1990 it appears to have been close to 90 percent."[8]
A wide-ranging study of civilian war deaths from 1700 to 1987 by William Eckhardt states:
On the average, half of the deaths caused by war happened to civilians, only some of whom were killed by famine associated with war...The civilian percentage share of war-related deaths remained at about 50% from century to century. (p. 97)[9]
Mexican Revolution (1910–20)
Although it is estimated that over 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 combatant deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.[10][11]
Some 7 million combatants on both sides are estimated to have died during World War I, along with an estimated 10 million non-combatants, including 6.6 million civilians.[citation needed] The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 59%. Boris Urlanis notes a lack of data on civilian losses in the Ottoman Empire, but estimates 8.6 million military killed and dead and 6 million civilians killed and dead in the other warring countries.[12] The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 42%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine, typhus, or Spanish flu rather than combat action. The relatively low ratio of civilian casualties in this war is due to the fact that the front lines on the main battlefront, the Western Front, were static for most of the war, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones.
According to most sources, World War II was the most lethal war in world history, with some 70 million killed in six years. According to some, the civilian to combatant fatality ratio in World War II lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%.[15][16] According to others, the ratio is at least 3:1 and potentially higher.[17] The high ratio of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing effectiveness and lethality of strategic weapons which were used to target enemy industrial or population centers, and famines caused by economic disruption. An estimated 2.1–3 million Indians died in the Bengal famine of 1943 in India during World War II. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by Axis Powers as a result of genocide such as the Holocaust or other ethnic cleansing campaigns.[13]
Korean War
The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 2,730,000. The total estimated North Korean combatant deaths is 213,000 and the estimated Chinese combatant deaths is over 400,000. In addition to this the Republic of Korea combatant deaths is around 134,000 dead and the combatant deaths for the United Nations side is around 49,000 dead and missing (40,000 dead, 9,000 missing). The estimated total Korean war military dead is around 793,000 deaths. The civilian-combatant death ratio in the war is approximately 3:1 or 75%. One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.[18]
Vietnam War
The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the Vietnam War at two million, and the number of NVA and Viet Cong killed at 1.1 million—estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources.[19] This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 2:1, or 67%. These figures do not include civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos. However, the lowest estimate of 411,000[20] civilians killed during the war (including civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos) would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 1:3, or 25%. Using the lowest estimate of Vietnamese military deaths, 400,000, the ratio is about 1:1.
1982 Lebanon War
In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon with the stated aim of driving the PLO away from its northern borders.[21] The war culminated in a seven-week-long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.[22]
According to the International Red Cross, by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded—a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of 4:1.[23] Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians.[24][25] This gives a civilian to military casualty ratio of about 6:1.
According to Richard A. Gabriel between 1,000 and 3,000 civilians were killed in the southern campaign.[26] He states that an additional 4,000 to 5,000 civilians died from all actions of all sides during the siege of Beirut,[26] and that some 2,000 Syrian soldiers were killed during the Lebanon campaign and a further 2,400 PLO guerillas were also killed.[26] Of these, 1,000 PLO guerrillas were killed during the siege.[26] According to Gabriel the ratio of civilian deaths to combatants during the siege was about 6 to 1 but this ratio includes civilian deaths from all actions of all sides.[26]
During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 4.3:1. The combined ratio for both wars is 7.6:1. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable.[27] The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.[28][29]
In 1999, NATO intervened in the Kosovo War with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were conducting a campaign of ethnic cleansing. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo.
Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo.[30] Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. Human Rights Watch counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.[31]
If the NATO figures are to be believed, the bombings achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1.
According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces (including Iraqi government forces) had killed at least 28,736 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating a civilian to combatant casualty ratio inflicted by coalition forces of 1:2.[33] However, overall, figures by the Iraq Body Count from 20 March 2003 to 14 March 2013 indicate that of 174,000 casualties only 39,900 were combatants, resulting in a civilian casualty rate of 77%. Most civilians were killed by anti-government insurgents and unidentified third parties.[34]
The civilian casualty ratio for U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan conducted during 2004 and 2018 as part of the War on Terror is notoriously difficult to quantify. In 2010, the U.S. itself put the number of civilians killed from drone strikes in the last two years at no more than 20 to 30, a total that is far too low according to a spokesman for the NGOCIVIC.[35] At the other extreme, Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution suggested in 2009 that drone strikes may kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, which would represent a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that civilian killings constitute a humanitarian tragedy and create dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.[36] An ongoing study by the New America Foundation finds non-militant casualty rates started high but declined steeply over time, from about 60% (3 out of 5) in 2004–2007 to less than 2% (1 out of 50) in 2012. In 2011, the study put the overall non-militant casualty rate since 2004 at 15–16%, or a 1:5 ratio, out of a total of between 1,908 and 3,225 people killed in Pakistan by drone strikes since 2004.[37]
War against the Islamic state
The global coalition's War against the Islamic State, from 2014, had led to as many as 50,000 ISIL combatant casualties by the end of 2016.[38]Airwars calculated that 8,200–13,275 civilians were killed in Coalition airstrikes, mainly up to the end of 2017, with especially high casualty rates during the Battle of Mosul.[39] An Associated Press investigation found that in the Battle of Mosul, of the >9,000 fatalities, between 42% and 60% were civilians.[40]
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) estimated 4,228 Palestinians and 1,024 Israelis were killed between 2000 and 2007.[41] It quoted B'Tselem estimating that of the Israelis killed by Palestinians, 31% were members of the IDF, while 69% were civilians. For the Palestinians killed by Israelis, 41% were combatants while 59% were civilians.[41]
B'Tselem estimate of% civilians killed by both sides 2000–2007[41]
Total
Civilians
Civilian to combatant ratio
Israelis killed by Palestinians
1,204
69%
2.2: 1
Palestinians killed by Israelis
4,228
59%
1.4: 1
During this period various other claims were made regarding Palestinian civilian to combatants killed by Israel. Amos Harel wrote that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio of Israeli airstrikes (not including ground operations) was 1:1 in 2003, but by 2007 it had improved to 1:30.[42] Meanwhile, the Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet claimed that of the Palestinians killed between 2006–2007 period in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank), only 20% were civilians.[43] The Ha'aretz criticized the Shin Bet as underestimating the civilian casualties.[43] B'Tselem data of Palestinians killed by Israel in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank) Jan 1, 2006 to Dec 31, 2007, shows 821 killed, of which 405 were combatants (49%), 346 non-combatants (42%) and the rest with unknown status.[44]
The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.[50][51]
The Goldstone Report into the conflict concluded that while there were many individual Gaza policemen who were members of militant groups, the Gaza police forces were a civilian police force and "cannot be said to have been taking a direct part in hostilities and thus did not lose their civilian immunity from direct attack as civilians".[52]
Israeli casualties
13 Israelis were killed during the conflict, including 10 IDF soldiers (4 killed by friendly fire),[49] giving a civilian casualty ratio for Palestinian forces of 24% or 3:10.
Reports of casualties in the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict have been made available by a variety of sources. Most media accounts have used figures provided by the government in Gaza or non-governmental organizations.[53] Differing methodologies have resulted in varied reports of both the overall death toll and the civilian casualty ratio.[54]
According to the main estimates between 2,125[55] and 2,310[56] Gazans were killed and between 10,626[56] and 10,895[57] were wounded (including 3,374 children, of whom over 1,000 were left permanently disabled[58][bettersourceneeded]). 66 Israeli soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians (including one child)[59] and one Thai civilian were killed[60] and 469 IDF soldiers and 261 Israeli civilians were injured.[61] The Gaza Health Ministry, UN and some human rights groups reported that 69–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians;[60][62][57] Israeli officials estimated that around 50% of those killed were civilians.,[63] giving Israeli forces a ratio between 1:1 and 3:1 during the conflict.
In March 2015, OCHA reported that 2,220 Palestinians had been killed in the conflict, of whom 1,492 were civilians (551 children and 299 women), 605 militants and 123 of unknown status, giving Israeli forces a ratio of 3:1.[45]
On October 7, 2023, Hamas led an attack on Israel which killed 1,140 Israelis, of which 695 were Israeli civilians, as well as 373 soldiers from various military positions and 71 foreign civilians,[67] a ratio of 2:1 between civilians and militant forces. During the invasion of the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported around 300 deaths of soldiers, while the Hamas al Qassam Brigade estimated the number around 4,000 to 5,000 deaths of Israeli soldiers,[68] Following the attack, Israel started extensive aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip followed by a large-scale ground invasion beginning on the 27th.
As of September 2024, more than 41,000 people killed by Israel in Gaza according to the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health, since October 7, 2023, in addition to an estimated 10,000 bodies missing under the rubble.[69][70] Among these numbers, 56% are estimated to be women and children.[71] An investigation by the UN Human Rights Office into a subset of 8,119 verified fatalities found around 70% of them to be women and children, with 5-9 year olds the most heavily represented group.[72]
According to the Israeli Defense Force, over 17,000 Palestinian militants were killed out of about 41,000 total people killed as of September 2024, which would suggest a civilian to combatant ratio of about 1.4:1.[73][74] Some sources have doubted the Israeli official reports. In March 2024, Haaretz interviewed several standing army commanders and reserve commanders who cast doubt on Israel's official figures of how many terrorists it had killed.[75] It is possible that some of those included in the combatant killed count were "Palestinians who never held a gun in their lives".[75] Some observers believe Israel treats all adult male casualties as militants.[76] Other observers argue that Israel could be arriving at inflated figures of militant deaths by including all civil servants as militants.[77] In early December, Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor estimated that 90% of the casualties were civilians.[78][79] On May 30, professor Adam Gaffney of Harvard Medical School estimated civilians constituted 80% of total killed.[80] On August 2, professor Michael Spagat also estimated that roughly 80% of GHM recorded deaths constituted civilians.[81] These estimates do not include the indirect deaths (caused by the famine and the collapse of the healthcare system), which are likely to be much higher. In February 2024, a joint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins University found the war continuing at status quo would result in between 58,260 and 74,290 excess deaths by 6 August.[82]
↑ Kahnert, M., D. Pitt, et al., Eds. (1983). Children and War: Proceedings of Symposium at Siuntio Baths, Finland, 1983. Geneva and Helsinki, Geneva International Peace Research Institute, IPB and Peace Union of Finland, p. 5, which states: "Of the human victims in the First World War only 5% were civilians, in the Second World War already 50%, in Vietnam War between 50 - 90% and according to some information in Lebanon 97%. It has been appraised that in a conventional war in Europe up to 99% of the victims would be civilians."
↑ Ahlstrom, C. and K.-A. Nordquist (1991). Casualties of conflict: report for the world campaign for the protection of victims of war. Uppsala, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.
↑ Sivard, R. L. (1991). World Military and Social Expenditures 1991. Washington DC, World Priorities, Inc. Vol. 14, pp 22-25.
1 2 3 4 5 Gabriel, Richard, A, Operation Peace for Galilee, The Israeli-PLO War in Lebanon, New York: Hill & Wang. 1984, p. 164, 165, ISBN0-8090-7454-0
↑ Al Taher, Nada (March 26, 2024). "Israeli campaign in Gaza meets genocide definition, says UN official". The National "Israel failed to prove that the remaining 30 percent, i.e. adult males, were active Hamas combatants – a necessary condition for them to be lawfully targeted," the report read. Israel assigned all adult men "active fighter status by default" in December last year when it said it had killed more than 7,000 "terrorists", although men comprised less than 5,000 of the casualties at the time.
The Second Intifada, also known as the Al-Aqsa Intifada, was a major uprising by Palestinians against Israel and its occupation from 2000. The period of heightened violence in the Palestinian territories and Israel continued until the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit of 2005, which ended hostilities.
Targeted killing, or assassination is a tactic that the government of Israel has used during the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, and other conflicts.
The 2006 Gaza–Israel conflict, known in Israel as Operation Summer Rains, was a series of battles between Palestinian militants and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during summer 2006, prompted by the capture of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit by Palestinian militants on 25 June 2006. Large-scale conventional warfare occurred in the Gaza Strip, starting on 28 June 2006, which was the first major ground operation in the Gaza Strip since Israel's unilateral disengagement plan was implemented between August and September 2005.
In 2008 the Israel Defense Forces launched Operation Hot Winter, also called Operation Warm Winter, in the Gaza Strip, starting on February 29, 2008 in response to Qassam rockets fired from the Strip by Hamas onto Israeli civilians. At least 112 Palestinians, along with three Israelis, were killed, and more than 150 Palestinians and seven Israelis were injured.
The Gaza–Israel conflict is a localized part of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict beginning in 1948, when about 200,000 of the more than 700,000 Palestinians who fled or were expelled from their homes settled in the Gaza Strip as refugees. Since then, Israel has been involved in about 15 wars involving organizations in the Gaza Strip. The number of Palestinians killed in the ongoing 2023–2024 war (41,000) is higher than the death toll of all other wars in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict combined.
The Gaza War, also known as the First Gaza War, Operation Cast Lead, or the Gaza Massacre, and referred to as the Battle of al-Furqan by Hamas, was a three-week armed conflict between Gaza Strip Palestinian paramilitary groups and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that began on 27 December 2008 and ended on 18 January 2009 with a unilateral ceasefire. The conflict resulted in 1,166–1,417 Palestinian and 13 Israeli deaths. Over 46,000 homes were destroyed in Gaza, making more than 100,000 people homeless.
The al-Fakhura school shelling was an Israeli military strike that took place during the Gaza War on 6 January 2009 near a United Nations-run school in the Jabalia Camp in the Gaza Strip. According to the UN and several non-governmental organizations (NGOs), more than 40 people were killed. Israel reported the death toll as nine Hamas militants and three noncombatants with senior IDF officers stating that the death toll published by Hamas was "grossly exaggerated". Israel stated it fired on the school in response to militant gunfire believed to be coming from al-Fakhura. A UN inquiry said that there was no firing from within the school and there were no explosives within the school, but could not establish if militants fired from the vicinity of the school.
The Zeitoun killings refer to the Israeli military incursion, led by the Givati Brigade unit of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), into the Zeitoun district of Gaza as part of the three-week 2008–09 Gaza War. In the Arab world, it is referred to as the Zeitoun District Massacre. A total of 48 residents of Zeitoun were killed, most of them women, children, and the elderly; 27 homes, a mosque and a number of farms were destroyed by Israeli forces.
Accusations of violations regarding international humanitarian law, which governs the actions by belligerents during an armed conflict, have been directed at both Israel and Hamas for their actions during the 2008–2009 Gaza War. The accusations covered violating laws governing distinction and proportionality by Israel, the indiscriminate firing of rockets at civilian locations and extrajudicial violence within the Gaza Strip by Hamas. As of September 2009, some 360 complaints had been filed by individuals and NGOs at the prosecutor's office in the Hague calling for investigations into alleged crimes committed by Israel during the Gaza War.
Gaza War fatalities estimates made by human rights NGOs and by the involved combatants:
Children and children's rights have long been a focal point of the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict, dating as early as the 1929 Hebron massacre and the 1948 Deir Yassin massacre, both of which claimed the lives of children, precipitating a long conflict that has often led to the displacement, injury, and death of youths. Youth exposure to hostilities increased notably during the First and Second Intifada, where harsh responses from Israeli forces towards Palestinian adolescents and children protesting the Israeli occupation led to the arrest and detention of many Palestinian youth, in addition to other human rights abuses.
The 2014 Gaza War, also known as Operation Protective Edge, and Battle of the Withered Grain, was a military operation launched by Israel on 8 July 2014 in the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian territory that has been governed by Hamas since 2007. Following the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank by Hamas-affiliated Palestinian militants, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initiated Operation Brother's Keeper, in which it killed 10 Palestinians, injured 130 and imprisoned more than 600. Hamas reportedly did not retaliate but resumed rocket attacks on Israel more than two weeks later, following the killing of one of its militants by an Israeli airstrike on 29 June. This escalation triggered a seven-week-long conflict between the two sides, one of the deadliest outbreaks of open conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in decades. The combination of Palestinian rocket attacks and Israeli airstrikes resulted in over two thousand deaths, the vast majority of which were Gazan Palestinians. This includes a total of six Israeli civilians who were killed as a result of the conflict.
The following is a timeline of the 2014 Gaza War. Over 2014, Palestinians suffered the highest number of civilian casualties since the Six-Day War in 1967, according to a United Nations report, given the July–August conflict, and rising tolls in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. A spike in Israeli casualties also occurred. 2,256 Palestinians and 85 Israelis died, while 17,125 Palestinians, and 2,639 Israelis suffered injuries.
The 2014 Israeli shelling of UNRWA Gaza shelters were seven shellings at UNRWA facilities in the Gaza Strip which took place between 21 July and 3 August 2014 during the Israeli-Gaza conflict. The incidents were the result of artillery, mortar or aerial missile fire which struck on or near the UNRWA facilities being used as shelters for Palestinians, and as a result at least 44 civilians, including 10 UN staff, died. During the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict, many Palestinians fled their homes after warnings by Israel or due to air strikes or fighting in the area. An estimated 290,000 people took shelter in UNRWA schools.
The 2014 Gaza war beach bombing incidents refers to two incidents that took place during the 2014 Gaza War on 9 and 16 July. In the first incident, Israeli missiles killed nine Palestinian children and young adults while they were following the 2014 FIFA World Cup on TV; in the second, four Palestinian children were killed by Israeli naval fire while playing on a beach.
Mass civilian casualties of Israeli bombing, shelling and rocket attacks on the Gaza Strip have occurred in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, in which Israeli bombing attacks on the Gaza Strip cause numerous civilian fatalities. The reason for such operations is purportedly to carry out targeted assassinations of militants from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other groups seen to be a threat to Israel, whose Shin Bet data banks monitor thousands of Palestinians for targeting. Israel regards such cases as either unfortunate errors, the consequence of civilians being allegedly used to shield militants, or as acceptable collateral damage.
As part of the Israel–Hamas war, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has used artificial intelligence to rapidly and automatically perform much of the process of determining what to bomb. Israel has greatly expanded the bombing of the Gaza Strip, which in previous wars had been limited by the Israeli Air Force running out of targets.
Sadowski, Yahya M. (1998): The Myth of Global Chaos, p. 134, Brookings Institution Press, ISBN978-0-8157-7664-2.
Snow, Donald M. (1996): Uncivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts, pp. 64-66, Lynne Rienner Publishers, ISBN978-1-55587-655-5.
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