Isaaq migrations

Isaaq migrations

Isaaq horsemen of the Habr Je'lo clan, 1898
Date	12th-20th century
Location	Horn of Africa
Participants	Various isaaq subclans
Outcome	Isaaq settlement of most of modern day Somaliland, Haud and parts of Yemen and kenya around Lake Naivasha [1]

The Isaaq clans began migrating from their ancestral homeland in the city of Maydh, eventually settling and dispersing across various regions of the Horn of Africa. ^[2] These migrations were part of the broader movements of the Somali people around the Horn, which contributed to the establishment of Somali settlements in their present-day territories. ^[3]

History and migrations

Origins

The Isaaq people traditionally claim to have descended from Sheikh Ishaaq bin Ahmed, an Islamic scholar who purportedly traveled to Somaliland in the 12th or 13th century and married two women; one from the local Dir clan. and the other from the neighboring Harari people. ^[4] He is said to have sired eight sons who are the common ancestors of the clans of the Isaaq clan-family. He remained in Maydh until his death. ^[5]

Somali genealogical tradition places the origin of the Isaaq tribe in the 12th or 13th century with the arrival of the Sheikh Ishaaq Bin Ahmed (Sheikh Ishaaq) from Arabia. ^{[6] [7]} Sheikh Ishaaq settled in the coastal town of Maydh in modern-day northeastern Somaliland.Hence, Sheikh Ishaaq married two local women in Somaliland, which left him with eight. ^{[4] [8]}

There are also numerous existing hagiographies in Arabic which describe Sheikh Ishaaq's travels, works and overall life in modern Somaliland, as well as his movements in Arabia before his arrival. ^[9] Besides historical sources, one of the more recent printed biographies of Sheikh Ishaaq is the Amjaad of Sheikh Husseen bin Ahmed Darwiish al-Isaaqi as-Soomaali, which was printed in Aden in 1955. ^[10]

Early migrations west

Extent of the Isaaq clan-family at the end of the 19th century

As the Isaaq grew in size and numbers during the 12th century, the clan-family migrated and spread from their core area in Mait (Maydh) and the wider Sanaag region in a southwestward expansion over a wide portion of present-day Somaliland by the 15th and 16th centuries. ^{[11] [12] [3] [13]} As the Isaaq expanded the earlier Dir communities of Mait and the wider Sanaag region were driven westwards and to the south towards their present positions. ^[14] In this general expansion the Isaaq split up into their present component segments, however one fraction of the Habar Yunis clan, the Muse 'Arre, remains behind in Mait as the custodians of the tomb of Sheikh Ishaaq. ^[14] By the 1300s the Isaaq clans united to defend their inhabited territories and resources during clan conflicts against migrating clans. ^[15]

The Isaaq also played a prominent role in the Ethiopian-Adal War (1529–1543, referred to as the "Conquest of Abyssinia") in the army of Ahmad ibn Ibrahim al-Ghazi, ^[16] The Habr Magadle division (Ayoub, Garhajis, Habr Awal and Arap) of the Isaaq were mentioned in chronicles of that war written by Shihab Al-Din Ahmad Al-Gizany known as Futuh Al Habash. ^[14]

According to I.M Lewis ^[17]

The Marrehan and the Habr Magadle [Magādi] also play a very prominent role (...) The text refers to two Ahmads's with the nickname 'Left-handed'. One is regularly presented as 'Ahmad Guray, the Somali' (...) identified as Ahmad Guray Xuseyn, chief of the Habr Magadle. Another reference, however, appears to link the Habr Magadle with the Marrehan. The other Ahmad is simply referred to as 'Imam Ahmad' or simply the 'Imam'.This Ahmad is not qualified by the adjective Somali (...) The two Ahmad's have been conflated into one figure, the heroic Ahmed Guray (...)

After the war, the Isaaq clans (along with other tribes like the Daarood) grew in numbers and territory in the northeast, causing them to began to vie with their Oromo neighbours, who were expanding northwards themselves after the Great Oromo Migrations, thus creating a general thrust toward the southwest. The Isaaq, along with Darood subclans pushed westwards into the plains of Jigjiga and further, beyond where they played a important role in the Adal Sultanate's campaigns against Christian Abyssinia. ^[18] By the 16th to 17th century the movements that followed seem to have established the Isaaqs on coastal Somaliland, ^[3] while also having taken over much of Somaliland in that time period pushing the Oromo from the area. ^[19]

Migrations southwards

According to oral tradition, the Isaaqs, who were established in the coastal areas with a kingdom led by the Tol jeclo branch of the wider Isaaq family, ^{[20] [21]} began regularly fighting with the Darood tribes who lived to the south. The war was long and destructive, with both the Isaaqs and Daroods suffering heavy losses of life. ^[20]

The Isaaq kingdom and the King Harun dhuh barar was eventually overthrown by a coalition of Isaaq clans led by a military leader named Abdi Eisa. ^[22] According to tradition, Abdi Eisa successfully led the Isaaq forces in the Battle of Lafaruug, where they defeated the Absame tribes at the town of Lafaruug near Berbera ^[21] — a region where the Isaaq clan had expanded about a century earlier. ^[21]

Following his victory, Abdi Eisa was offered the position of Sultan of the Isaaq, but he declined. Instead, he suggested that his underage son, Guled Abdi, be crowned while he ruled as regent until his son came of age. The Isaaq gradually expanded their territory, reaching as far south as Toon and the edges of the Hawd by the beginning of the 19th century. The newly established Isaaq Sultanate subsequently made Toon its capital. ^[21]

Migrations into the Hawd

Throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, the Isaaq clan expanded its presence in the Hawd region following a series of military victories against various neighboring clans. Among these conflicts were the Rayyad Wars, led by Hersi Amman of the Habr Yunis and his successors, against the Dhulbahante and Ogaden tribes.

After the defeat of the Dervish movement in 1920, the Isaaq launched a series of raids and military campaigns against the Dhulbahante and Ogaden clans, who were left vulnerable. The Isaaq clans moved deep into the Ogaden region, where they were increasingly seen by the Ogaden clan as "sub-imperialists". ^[23] The Isaaqs reached as far as the Hiiraan region in southern Somalia. ^[24] The intensity of these raids significantly weakened the resistance of the Dhulbahante and Ogaden, leading many to abandon their traditional grazing lands in the Hawd region. Others were forced to adopt a modus vivendi with the advancing Isaaq. ^[25]

These conflicts inspired the creation of a series of poetic exchanges between the Isaaq and Darod clans, known collectively as the Guba Poems. The historian Siegbert Uhlig, commenting on the significance of the Guba, highlights the historical narrative conveyed in the poetry of Ali Dhuh: ^{[26] [27]}

Isaaq horsemen of the Eidagale sub-clan

Doqonkii Ogaadeen ahaa Doollo laga qaadye Loo diid Dannood iyo hadduu degi lahaa Ciide Nimanbaa dalkoodiyo xukuma labadi daaroode

Doollo has been taken from the Ogaadeen, the fools If they want to encamp in Dannood and 'lid, they are forbidden Other men rule their country, and their two regions [...]

Uhlig notes that Ali Dhuh’s poems describe the extensive territorial gains made by the Isaaq in traditionally Ogaden lands, the seizure of Ogaden wells, and the large-scale looting of their camels. The poems recount the dispersal of the Ogaden clan, their migration southward into fever-prone river valleys, and their adoption of farming and hunting—activities considered degrading and typically associated with slaves and lower-caste Somalis: ^{[26] [27]}

Daacuunku meeshuu ku leyn uma dalluumeene Daal iyo hadhuudh kuma cuneen degelkii Haarweyne Dullinimo inay qaayibeen waxaw daliilkiiya

They would not have migrated to a place where plague attacks them They would not eat barley and millet in the Haarweyne region  [and later] they cultivate the fields, because of their extreme poverty

According to the poems, many Ogaden sought refuge among their Isaaq conquerors, particularly with the Habr Yunis. Ali Dhuh’s verses depict the Ogaden as unable to retaliate, while the Isaaq are portrayed as flaunting their captured camels in front of their defeated adversaries. Uhlig remarks that even in translation, the poem remains highly evocative. ^[28]

B. W. Andrzejewski author of A Somali Poetic Combat writes :

During the period of administrative chaos which followed the war the Isaaq used their superior strength against both the Ogaadeen and the Dhulbahante. They looted many Ogaadeen herds, captured some of their wells and water-ponds, and dislodged them from a large part of their grazing areas in the Hawd. The Isaaq onslaught was so powerful that the Ogaadeen could put up little or no resistance, and did not even try to avenge their wrongs. Some of the clans, however, after being looted and pushed southward, developed a modus vivendi with the Isaaq and intermarried with them. ^[25]

Sultan Nur and Habr Yunis horsemen, 1896

In his book The Galla in Northern Somaliland Ioan Lewis states :

The southwards expansion of the Somali from the shores of the Gulf of Aden still continues despite the establishment of international frontiers and Administrative control. It is very evident in the Northern Province of Kenya, and in the British Protectorate the Isaaq now appear to be pushing outside the territory at the expense of the Darod into the Ogaden and Haud. ^[29]

The Battle of Dheriyo was a pivotal and fiercely fought conflict between the Ciidagale and Ogaden clans, where the Ogaden forces reportedly suffered devastating losses, with only 15 survivors who surrendered in an attempt to save themselves, claiming to belong to the minority Sab (Madhiban) clan. ^[30] The enraged Ciidagale warriors, emboldened by their thirst for vengeance from an earlier battle, reportedly took no prisoners. ^[30] The battle was immortalized in Somali oral poetry, with poets like Qawdhan Ducaale and Cabdi Gahaydh vividly recounting the triumph of the Ciidagale and the humiliation of the Ogaden. ^[30]

The Isaaq advance into Ogaden territory was eventually halted by the intervention of the British protectorate authorities with assistance from the Ethiopian Empire, who considered the Ogaden their subjects and whose safety was their priority. In one incident the Habar Yunis looted 1330 camels from the Ogaden, but were pressured by the British and the Ethiopians to return the camels to their previous owners. The Habr Yunis obliged and promised to desist in their raids, but despite their promise they continued to successfully raid the Ogadenis unhindered up until the British ceded the Haud to Ethiopia. ^{[31] [32] [33]}

Migrations into Sool

Current extent of the Isaaq clan-family in Somaliland (in yellow)

Around the same time, the Isaaq clan expanded further into traditional Dhulbahante territory to the east. This expansion was led primarily by the Habr Je’lo subclan. The Habr Je'lo Soocane faction under Kite Fiqi would raid Sool as early as the 1850s. ^{[34] [35]} The clan boundary between the Habr Je'lo and the Dhulbahante during the 19th century was traditionally in Laba Garday, a pass in the Buurdhaab mountain chain situated between War Idaad and Wadamago. ^[36] The Dhulbahante had previously inhabited just east of Burao. ^[37] The Habr Je'lo took advantage of the Dhulbahante's weakness after the defeat of the Dervish movement to conquer much of their important wells and grazing grounds. ^{[38] [39]} The Habr Je'lo subsequently expanded into and beyond the Saraar plain and the Ain Valley (which includes towns like Kirit, Wadamago, Aynaba, El Dab, Badwein and Gosawein ^[40] ), pushing the Dhulbahante southwards towards the Haud: ^[41]

Thus under pressure from the Habar Tol Ja'lo expanding to their north, the Dulbahante claim that formerly their north-western boundary was the Sarar Plain now grazed mainly by Habar Tol Ja'lo. And there is good evidence that they have in fact been forced to move south. Those Dulbahante lineages which formerly grazed in the Ain region and which were accordingly called Reer ‘Aymeed today pasture their stock mainly in the scrub-lands of the northern Hand where they are known as ‘people of the bush’ (Reer Oodeed).

—  Ioan Lewis

By 1951, some segments of the Mohamed and Muuse Abokor lineages of the Habar Je‘lo were penetrating as far south as Docmo and Marqanweyn in the Haud. ^[42]

Conquest of Aynaba

Aynaba Well

One of the most significant military and territorial gains was the Habr Je'lo conquest of the strategic town of Aynaba during a tribal war between the Habr Je'lo and the Dhulbahante in 1954-55. ^{[43] [44]} At the start of the 20th century Aynaba and its surroundings were inhabited by the Dhulbahante, who controlled the important wells there, which was seized by the Habr Je'lo alongside the town itself. ^[45]

A all-out tribal war broke out due to camel rustling in Erigavo District (today Sanaag region) perpetrated by Dhulbahante warrior Ali Guun. The death of Ali Guun in the Ban 'Ade plain between Garadag and Hudun at the hands of the Habr Je'lo turned the tide against the Dhulbahante, with the war later on being fought southwards in an area further south of Las Anod. ^[44]

A Habr Je'lo poet stated: ^[44]

Dadku kala laf weyne sane, Hadaan laayey Hagar Aadan (Dhulbahante). Oo xero Garaad kula legdemay, Libin miyey siigtay?

People are not equal in strength, If I killed the men (of the tribe of) Hagar Aadan. And fought them in the carrels of their Sultan, Have I missed victory?

Another poemabout the war was composed by Mohamed Adan Aws (Yawleh) of the Habr Yunis Isaaq: ^[44]

Mudo aan dhaweyn baa Nugaal muran ka taagnaaye. Ay qoloba qolo maaganayd, inay muquunshaane. Hayeeshee Habr Jeclaa mulkiday Maaxdii Caynaba eh. Military cadhoodaa Laf buu malow ka siiyaaye. Maroodigaba soo jeesigaa Maaro loo heline. Ma Mariniiskii baa idin helay, Ayda Miranaayey?

For a long time There were arguments in the Nugaal (Valley). And each tribe was planning to force out (from the Nugaal) the other tribe. Nevertheless, it is Habr Jeclo that Owns now the sweat waters of Ainabo. An angry military Usually crushes bones. Once the elephant turns around No one can stop him. Have you (Dhulbahante) met The marines (i.e., Habr Jeclo) that were roaming the jungle?

The renowned Habr Je'lo poet Salaan Carrabey commemorated these victories in his poem Haadaaqsi, part of the celebrated Guba poetic series. This boastful poem reflects the triumph of the Habar Je’lo over the Dhulbahante and describes the severe state of defeat inflicted upon their adversaries. Salaan’s vivid verses recount the displacement of Dhulbahante groups, their forced retreat to less hospitable areas, and the humiliation they endured as a result of their losses. The poem is characterized by its confident tone and sharp critique of the Dhulbahante’s diminished status. ^[46]

Goortaan hadhkaba kaa eryaad hawd u cararteene Waa kaa hubkii sida raggii wada hareednaaye Habarwaana waa kaa hingilan labadii haamoode Shirsooruhuba hoy maleh kuwaad hilib wadaagtaane Waa kaa hayaankii ku dhacay Hoobayiyo xeebe Ararsame ma haybsado Nugaal hogashadii ceele Hanas iyo abaar kulu adoo habaqle soo guurey Caynaba hadhuub kama dartaan hoga kaliileede Ka hulleele Hagar aadankii hoobalayn jiraye Aduunbaa hayaayda u guntane heeryo lagu saarye Hooyaalayntaan kaga badshaa haybad iyo luuqe Haasaasahaa laga gartaa hagar la'aaneede Mar haddaan hullaabta iska rogo soo hankaabsadaye An hawadiyo hoosada Burciyo Herer ka geeyeene Kuma hiilo heeliga fulaa la handabeeyaaye Anse wacan haagaag uga marshaa heel la ii wacaye

When I had chased you from the region where there is shade, you ran away to the Hawd And (yet) here are (your) young bearded men carrying arms The two sections of the Habarwaa are in clothes of mourning The Shirshoore, who are of the same flesh as you, homeless Indeed they had to trek towards Hobyo and the coast The Ararsame do not (even dare to) inquire about Nugaal and watering at the wells In the heat of the sun, suffering fierce thirst, you trudged along wearily You do not even take one vessel of water from Aynaba in the heat of the kaliil The Hagar Aadan who used to chant (to their camels, while watering them) have moved out from there And you who tell people to rally, the mat pack saddle (of humiliation) has been put In reciting poetry I excel others by (my) distinctive style and chant One can recognize (good) diction by (its) effortless ease Once I throw off the upper part of (my) clothes (preparing for a fight), I am firm and resolute Let me pour out (poetry) and let people take it to the glades of Bur'o and to Herer A coward who is criticised has no courage at an assembly But I speak openly and straight to the point at a meeting especially convened for me

—Salaan Carrabey Haadaaqsi [46]

The Dhulbahante loss of Caynabo constituted a form of collective trauma for the Dhulbahante, and touched a nerve among them, especially the subclans inhabiting the Buuhoodle area. ^[45] The current clan border between the Isaaq and the Dhulbahante is roughly between the towns of Oog and Guumays in Sool region. ^[47]

References

1. "Kenya: The Story of a Fourth-Generation Isahakia Community in Naivasha, Kenya, from Somaliland". Horn Diplomat. 13 October 2016. Retrieved 2025-01-11.
2. Lewis, I. M. (1998). Saints and Somalis: Popular Issues in East African History. The Red Sea Press. p. 94. ISBN   978-1-56902-103-3 . Retrieved 2025-01-11.
3. "The great Somali migrations". www.britannica.com. Archived from the original on 25 February 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-29.
4. I.M. Lewis, A Modern History of the Somali, fourth edition (Oxford: James Currey, 2002), pp. 31 & 42
5. Adam, Hussein M. (1980). Somalia and the World: Proceedings of the International Symposium Held in Mogadishu on the Tenth Anniversary of the Somali Revolution, October 15–21, 1979. Halgan.
6. Berns McGown, Rima (1999). Muslims in the diaspora. University of Toronto Press. pp. 27–28.
7. Lewis, I. M. (2002). A Modern History of the Somali (Fourth ed.). Oxford: James Currey. p. 22.
8. Gori, Alessandro (2003). Studi sulla letteratura agiografica islamica somala in lingua araba [Studies on Somali Islamic hagiographic literature in Arabic] (in Italian). Firenze: Dipartimento di linguistica, Università di Firenze. p. 72. ISBN   88-901340-0-3. OCLC   55104439. Archived from the original on 4 November 2021. Retrieved 15 October 2021.
9. Roland Anthony Oliver, J. D. Fage, Journal of African history, Volume 3 (Cambridge University Press.: 1962), p.45
10. Lewis, I. M. (1999). A pastoral democracy: a study of pastoralism and politics among the Northern Somali of the Horn of Africa. LIT Verlag Münster. p. 131.
11. Abdi, Mohameddeq Ali (2022-04-19). Why Somalia does not get the right direction. BoD – Books on Demand. p. 25. ISBN   978-3-7543-5218-2.
12. Ahmed, Ali J., ed. (1995). The invention of Somalia (1. print ed.). Lawrenceville, NJ: Red Sea Press. p. 251. ISBN   978-0-932415-99-8.
13. Lewis, I. M. (1998). Saints and Somalis: Popular Islam in a Clan-based Society. The Red Sea Press. p. 94. ISBN   978-1-56902-103-3.
14. Lewis, I. M. (1959). "The Galla in Northern Somaliland". Rassegna di Studi Etiopici. 15. Istituto per l'Oriente C. A. Nallino: 21–38. JSTOR   41299539. Archived from the original on 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
15. Minahan, James B. (August 2016). Encyclopedia of Stateless Nations: Ethnic and National Groups around the World. Bloomsbury Publishing USA. pp. 184–185. ISBN   979-8-216-14892-0 . Retrieved 2025-01-11.
16. Lewis, I. M. (1999). A Pastoral Democracy: A Study of Pastoralism and Politics Among the Northern Somali of the Horn of Africa. James Currey Publishers. ISBN   9780852552803.
17. Morin, Didier (2004). Dictionnaire historique afar: 1288–1982 [Historic dictionary of Afar: 1288–1982] (in French). KARTHALA Editions. ISBN   9782845864924. Archived from the original on 22 May 2024. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
18. Asiwaju, A. I. (1985). Partitioned Africans: Ethnic Relations Across Africa's International Boundaries, 1884-1984. C. Hurst. ISBN   978-0-905838-91-5.
19. Zewde, Bahru (2008). Society, State, and Identity in African History. African Books Collective. p. 275. ISBN   978-99944-50-25-1.
20. "Taariikhdii Boqortooyadii Toljecle iyo Boqor Haruun". La Foi Islam. 10 June 2012. Retrieved 9 January 2025.
21. Sheekadii Magan Suldaan Guuleed (Magan-Gaabo) circa 1790-1840. Internet Archive. Retrieved 9 January 2025.
22. Sheekadii Magan Suldaan Guuleed (Magan-Gaabo) circa 1790-1840. Internet Archive. Retrieved 9 January 2025.
23. Vries, Lotje de; Englebert, Pierre; Schomerus, Mareike (2018-08-20). Secessionism in African Politics: Aspiration, Grievance, Performance, Disenchantment. Springer. ISBN   978-3-319-90206-7.
24. Barnes, Cedric (2006). "Gubo - Ogaadeen Poetry and the Aftermath of the Dervish Wars". Journal of African Cultural Studies. 18 (1): 105–117. ISSN   1369-6815. From here to Hiraan (the invaders) took possession of everything, leaving nothing behind on the dish
25. A Somali Poetic Combat, B. W. Andrzejewski M.I Galaal. pp.15
26. "Gabayadii Cali Dhuux kaga qeyb qaatay Guba". www.doollo.com. Retrieved 2025-02-02.
27. Barnes, Cedric (2006). "Gubo - Ogaadeen Poetry and the Aftermath of the Dervish Wars". Journal of African Cultural Studies. 18 (1): 105–117. ISSN   1369-6815.
28. Proceedings of the XVth International Conference of Ethiopian Studies Hamburg (2003), p. 215.
29. THE GALLA IN NORTHERN SOMALILAND, I.M Lewis pp.38
30. "Dagaalladii Dheriyo iyo Dhurwaale". www.hoygasuugaanta.com. Retrieved 2025-01-25.
31. Irons, Roy (4 November 2013). Churchill and the Mad Mullah of Somaliland ,p.149. Pen and Sword. ISBN   9781473831551.
32. The Mad Mullah of Somaliland, Douglas Jardine, p.197
33. "The Parliamentary Debates (official Report) House of Commons. 4th session of the 28th Parliament through the 1st session of the 48th Parliament, 1914". 1914.
34. "Kite(Part1)". gabayo.tripod.com. Retrieved 2020-12-27.
35. "Hoyga Suugaanta". www.hoygasuugaanta.com. Retrieved 2025-01-25.
36. Muray, John (1893). Supplementary Papers. p. 553. Our way for a day's march lay amongst stony hills and up a thorny valley , until we reached the summit of a low range which separates the Habr Toljaala from the Dulbahanta country , and is here called Laba Gardai ( two views ) .
37. Höhne, Markus Virgil (2015). Between Somaliland and Puntland: marginalization, militarization and conflicting political visions. Contested borderlands. London: Rift Valley Institute. p. 86. ISBN   978-1-907431-13-5.
38. Höhne, Markus Virgil (2015). Between Somaliland and Puntland: marginalization, militarization and conflicting political visions. Contested borderlands. London: Rift Valley Institute. p. 53. ISBN   978-1-907431-13-5.
39. Zenker, Olaf; Hoehne, Markus Virgil (2018-02-02). The State and the Paradox of Customary Law in Africa. Routledge. ISBN   978-1-317-01479-9.
40. MacFadyen, W. A. (1933). The Geology of British Somaliland. Government of the Somaliland Protectorate.
41. Lewis, Ioan M. (1999). A pastoral democracy: a study of pastoralism & politics among the Northern Somali of the Horn of Africa. IAI classics in African anthrpology. International African Institute (3rd ed.). Oxford: James Currey. p. 51. ISBN   978-0-85255-280-3.
42. Lewis, Ioan M. (1999). A pastoral democracy: a study of pastoralism & politics among the Northern Somali of the Horn of Africa. IAI classics in African anthrpology. International African Institute (3rd ed.). Oxford: James Currey. p. 247. ISBN   978-0-85255-280-3.
43. Lund, Christian; Eilenberg, Michael (2017-07-11). Rule and Rupture: State Formation Through the Production of Property and Citizenship. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN   978-1-119-38473-1.
44. Mohamed, Jama (1996). "Constructing colonial hegemony in the Somaliland protectorate, 1941-1960". University of Toronto : 336–338. Archived from the original on 2 June 2021.
45. Höhne, Markus Virgil (2015). Between Somaliland and Puntland: marginalization, militarization and conflicting political visions. Contested borderlands. London: Rift Valley Institute. p. 61. ISBN   978-1-907431-13-5.
46. Galaal, Musa H.I; Andrzejewski, B.W (1963). Journal of African languages A Somali Poetic Combat - III. Macmillan. pp. 190–205.
47. "CrisisWatch: October Alerts and September Trends 2023". www.crisisgroup.org. 2023-09-29. Retrieved 2025-01-30.