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Med Jones (a.k.a. Med Yones) is an American economist. He is the president of International Institute of Management, a U.S. based research organization. His work at the institute focuses on economic, investment, and business strategies. [1]
Med Jones is one of few economists who predicted the Great Recession of 2008 caused by the burst of the United States housing bubble, the Subprime mortgage crisis and the financial crisis of 2007–2008. [2] [3] In a 2006 white paper, he listed three major U.S. economic risks for the decade between 2007 and 2017. [4] The risks included the housing bubble and consumer debt, among the main risks to the US economy. [5] In March 2007, in a Reuters' Interview, he, again, said the impact of the subprime mortgages will not be limited to the housing sector, he warned about increased bankruptcies, stock market crash, and a loss of the confidence in the US economy. According to Reuters, “He said the bursting of the real estate bubble and high consumer debt were a major worry" and “if people started to think there may be a lot of bankruptcies (in the subprime lending market), then you’re going to see the stock market sell-off.” More importantly, he explicitly warned about a much worse economic crisis as a result of the subprime mortgages, stating that “The worst thing that could happen to any economy is the loss of confidence”. [6]
In 2007 the Federal Reserve was still blind to the impact of the housing bubble and subprime crash. In August 2007, the New York Federal Reserve reported that for the most part, Bear Stearns' (mortgage-related financial) problems did not pose a substantial risk to the economy. [7] The Fed Chairman stated that: "The housing market has looked a bit more solid, and the worst outcomes have been made less likely". In May 2008. In a congressional testimony, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he saw only a "limited" impact of subprimes on "the broader housing market." [8]
In 2009, top economists and some Nobel laureates in Economics, came under criticism for defending their failure to see the crisis, stating that the economic crisis was unpredictable. [9] According to Wharton University, "What made it worse is that not only the top economists failed to predict it, they positively denied that it will happen." [10]
Economic forecasting is the holy grail of investing. Wall Street spends billions of dollars on economic research and analysis. [11] Accurate economic forecasting is regarded by academics and investors to be next to impossible. Yet, sometimes some analysts emerge with a specific view that contradicts the mainstream and with exceptional accuracy they prove the most respected economists and investors wrong. Among the economists who predicted the crisis, Jones' predictions are considered the most accurate. [12] [13] [14]
In 2010, President Barack Obama Administration and mainstream economists at leading think tanks, were focused on finding ways to restore"economic confidence". [15]
In 2015, seven years after the Great Recession, academic researchers presented a paper at the World Economic Forum explaining that economic confidence was not fully taken into consideration in academia and it was a major factor for recovery from great recession. [16]
Investors and investment advisers who follow Jones' predictions regard him among the prominent independent thinking money managers and economists. [17]
Despite having the most accurate forecasting record of the great recession and recovery, he advises investors against using his own forecasts. Jones believes economic forecasting is unreliable and Wall Street is a casino. In one interview, he says "I do not advise anyone to invest based on my outlook of the economy. The truth is that when people invest on Wall Street, they are essentially making bets about the future.” In addition, although he is known for his work on economics, he tries to distance himself from the economic profession. [18]
Mr. Jones is credited with the introduction of the first Gross National Happiness Index (GNH Index) in 2005, also known as Gross National Well-being Index (GNW Index). [19] [20]
In 2006, he published a white paper titled the American Pursuit of Unhappiness calling on policymakers, economists and researchers implement the first GNH Index framework. [21] [22] The initiative was widely referenced by academic and research papers citing the GNH index as a model for economic development and measurement. [23]
The term Gross National Happiness (GNH) was coined in 1972 by Sicco Mansholt one of the Founding Fathers of the European Union and the fourth president of the European Commission. GNH is often misattributed to Bhutan's fourth King, Jigme Singye Wangchuck who popularized the concept in the late 1990s. [24] The GNH philosophy suggested that the ideal purpose of governments is to promote happiness. The philosophy remained difficult to implement due to the subjective nature of happiness and the lack of exact quantitative definition of GNH [25] and the lack of a practical model to measure the impact of economic policies on the subjective well-being of the citizens.
The purpose of the GNH Index was to create a new metric as an alternative to the traditional GDP indicator, the new metric would integrates subjective and objective socioeconomic development policy framework and measurement indicators. The GNH Index was designed to transform the first generation abstract subjective political mission statement into a second generation implementation holistic (objective and subjective) concept and by treating happiness as a socioeconomic development metric. The proposed metric measures socioeconomic development by tracking seven wellness development areas: economic, environmental, physical, mental, workplace, social, and political via objective data and subjective results via survey. [26] GNH value is proposed to be an index function of the total average per capita. In the same year, he published a global GNH Index survey blueprint that can benchmark the subjective well-being in different countries, correlate happiness levels with differences in local policies to help identify best practices and major socioeconomic policy issues. The first Global Gross National Happiness Index Survey was launched in 2005. [27]
After the introduction of GNH index initiative in 2005, several initiatives were launched that adapted the gross national happiness index to their community.
In a report (2012) prepared for the US Congressman Hansen Clarke, R, Researchers Ben, Beachy and Juston Zorn, at John F. Kennedy School of Government in Harvard University, recommended that "the Congress should prescribe the broad parameters of new, carefully designed supplemental national indicators; it should launch a bipartisan commission of experts to address unresolved methodological issues, and include alternative indicators." They proposed that the government can use the survey results to see which well-being dimensions are least satisfied and which districts and demographic groups are most deficient, so as to allocate resources accordingly. The report list the Gross National Happiness Index and its seven measurement area as one of the main frameworks to consider. [28]
In 2007 Thailand releases the Green and Happiness Index (GHI). [29]
In 2009, in the United States, the Gallup poll system launched the happiness survey and collected data on a national scale. [30] The Gallup Well-Being Index was modelled after the GNH Index framework of 2005. [31] The Well-Being Index score is an average of six sub-indexes that measures life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviours, and access to basic necessities. In October 2009, the USA scored 66.1/100.
In 2010 the Bhutan GNH Index was conducted for the first time, the Bhutan GNH Index is similar to the first GNH Index created by Med Jones. [32]
In 2011 UN General Assembly Resolution 65/309, titled "Happiness: towards a holistic approach to development". [33]
In 2011 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) launches "Better Life Index" (BLI). [34]
In 2011 Canadian Index of Wellbeing Network (CIW Network) releases The Canadian Index of Wellbeing (CIW). [35]
In 2011, a leading Israeli newspaper, Haaretz , published an article suggesting that western GDP economics is an incomplete development model and called for the adoption of Bhutan's GNH philosophy and Jones' GNH Index in Israel. [36]
In 2012, the city of Seattle in Washington, launched its own happiness index initiative, emphasizing measures similar to the GNH Index. [37]
In 2012 South Korea Launched Happiness Index citing the GNH Index framework. [38]
In India, Government of Goa 2030 Vision and Roadmap in (2012) cited the GNH Index as a model for measuring happiness. [39]
In 2014 The government of Dubai launched its localized Happiness Index to measure the public's contentment and satisfaction with different government services. [40]
In 2014 the United Kingdom launched its own well-being and happiness statistics. [41]
In 2012 Professor Peter T. Coleman, a world-renowned director of the International Center for Cooperation and Conflict Resolution at Columbia University, suggested that Jones' GNH Index initiative could inform the Global Peace Index Initiative GPI. [42]
Other noteworthy Happiness Index initiatives that followed the GNH Index of 2005 are the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD Better Life Index in 2011, World Happiness Report in 2011 and the Social Progress Index SPI in 2013.
Med Jones is identified as an independent in his profile on Wall Street Economists. [43]
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced and sold in a specific time period by a country or countries, generally "without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them". GDP is most often used by the government of a single country to measure its economic health. Due to its complex and subjective nature, this measure is often revised before being considered a reliable indicator. GDP (nominal) per capita does not, however, reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries; therefore, using a basis of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) may be more useful when comparing living standards between nations, while nominal GDP is more useful comparing national economies on the international market. Total GDP can also be broken down into the contribution of each industry or sector of the economy. The ratio of GDP to the total population of the region is the per capita GDP.
Quality of life (QOL) is defined by the World Health Organization as "an individual's perception of their position in life in the context of the culture and value systems in which they live and in relation to their goals, expectations, standards and concerns". Standard indicators of the quality of life include wealth, employment, the environment, physical and mental health, education, recreation and leisure time, social belonging, religious beliefs, safety, security and freedom. QOL has a wide range of contexts, including the fields of international development, healthcare, politics and employment. Health related QOL (HRQOL) is an evaluation of QOL and its relationship with health.
The Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) is an economic indicator intended to replace the gross domestic product (GDP), which is the main macroeconomic indicator of System of National Accounts (SNA). Rather than simply adding together all expenditures like the GDP, consumer spending is balanced by such factors as income distribution and cost associated with pollution and other unsustainable costs. The calculation excludes defence expenditures and considers a wider range of harmful effects of economic growth. It is similar to the genuine progress indicator (GPI).
Gross National Happiness (GNH), sometimes called Gross Domestic Happiness (GDH), is a philosophy that guides the government of Bhutan. It includes an index which is used to measure the collective happiness and well-being of a population. Gross National Happiness Index is instituted as the goal of the government of Bhutan in the Constitution of Bhutan, enacted on 18 July 2008.
The Human Poverty Index (HPI) was an indication of the poverty of community in a country, developed by the United Nations to complement the Human Development Index (HDI) and was first reported as part of the Human Deprivation Report in 1997. It is developed by United Nations Development Program which also publishes indexes like HDI It was considered to better reflect the extent of deprivation in deprived countries compared to the HDI. In 2010, it was supplanted by the UN's Multidimensional Poverty Index.
Environmental goods are typically non-market goods, including clean air, clean water, landscape, green transport infrastructure, public parks, urban parks, rivers, mountains, forests, and beaches. Environmental goods are a sub-category of public goods. Concerns with environmental goods focus on the effects that the exploitation of ecological systems have on the economy, the well-being of humans and other species, and on the environment. Users not having to pay an upfront cost and external factors like pollution that can damage environmental goods indefinitely are some of the challenges in protecting environmental goods.
The economics of happiness or happiness economics is the theoretical, qualitative and quantitative study of happiness and quality of life, including positive and negative affects, well-being, life satisfaction and related concepts – typically tying economics more closely than usual with other social sciences, like sociology and psychology, as well as physical health. It typically treats subjective happiness-related measures, as well as more objective quality of life indices, rather than wealth, income or profit, as something to be maximized.
The National Human Development Reports (NHDR) take the Global Human Development Report approach to the national level and are prepared and owned by national teams. More than 540 national and sub-national HDRs have been produced so far by 135 countries, in addition to 31 regional reports.
United States housing prices experienced a major market correction after the housing bubble that peaked in early 2006. Prices of real estate then adjusted downwards in late 2006, causing a loss of market liquidity and subprime defaults.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s where-to-be-born index attempts to measure which country will provide the best opportunities for a healthy, safe and prosperous life in the years ahead. It is based on a method that links the results of subjective life-satisfaction surveys to the objective determinants of quality of life across countries along with a onward-looking elements.
The Legatum Prosperity Index is an annual ranking developed by the Legatum Institute, an independent educational charity founded and part-funded by the private investment firm Legatum. The ranking is based on a variety of factors including wealth, economic growth, education, health, personal well-being, and quality of life.
The Gender Parity Index (GPI) is a socioeconomic index usually designed to measure the relative access to education of males and females. This index is released by UNESCO. In its simplest form, it is calculated as the quotient of the number of females by the number of males enrolled in a given stage of education. A GPI equal to one signifies equality between males and females. A GPI less than one is an indication that gender parity favors males while a GPI greater than one indicates gender parity that favors females. The closer a GPI is to one, the closer a country is to achieving equality of access between males and females. It is used by international organizations, particularly in measuring the progress of developing countries. The Institute for Statistics of UNESCO also uses a more general definition of GPI: for any development indicator one can define the GPI relative to this indicator by dividing its value for females by its value for males. For example, some UNESCO documents consider gender parity in literacy.
The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) is an economic research centre within the Oxford Department of International Development at the University of Oxford, England, that was established in 2007.
The OECD Better Life Index, created in May 2011 by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, is an initiative pioneering the development of economic indicators which better capture multiple dimensions of economic and social progress. The platform consists of a dashboard, that provides data and insights into key indicators - measuring areas such as wellbeing, environmental quality, quality of public services and security - alongside an interactive tool Your Better Life Index (BLI), which encourages citizens to create their own indexes by ranking each of the indicators according to the importance in their own lives.
Wikiprogress is a defunct online platform for sharing information on the measurement of social, economic and environmental progress. It is thought to facilitate sharing on ideas, initiatives and knowledge on "measuring the progress of societies". Like Wikipedia, it was open to all members and communities for contribution – anyone interested in "progress" could register.
Although for many decades, it was customary to focus on GDP and other measures of national income, there has been growing interest in developing broad measures of economic well-being. National and international approaches include the Beyond GDP programme developed by the European Union, the Better Lives Compendium of Indicators developed by the OECD, as well as many alternative metrics of wellbeing or happiness. One of the earliest attempts to develop such an index at national level was Bhutan's Gross National Happiness Index and there are a now a number of similar projects ongoing around the world, including a project to develop for the UK an assessment of national well-being, commissioned by the Prime Minister David Cameron and led by the Office for National Statistics.
Post-growth is stance on economic growth concerning the limits-to-growth dilemma — recognition that, on a planet of finite material resources, extractive economies and populations cannot grow infinitely. The term "post-growth" acknowledges that economic growth can generate beneficial effects up to a point, but beyond that point it is necessary to look for other indicators and techniques to increase human wellbeing.
Sabina Alkire is the director of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), an economic research centre within the Oxford Department of International Development at the University of Oxford, England, which was established in 2007. She is a fellow of the Human Development and Capability Association. She has worked with organizations such as the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, the United Nations Human Development Programme Human Development Report Office, the European Commission, and the UK's Department for International Development.
The World Happiness Report is a publication that contains articles and rankings of national happiness, based on respondent ratings of their own lives, which the report also correlates with various life factors. As of March 2022, Finland had been ranked the happiest country in the world five times in a row.
Gross National Well-being/Wellness (GNW) or Happiness (GNH) a socioeconomic development and measurement framework. The GNW/GNH Index consists of seven dimensions: economic, environmental, physical, mental, work, social, and political. Most wellness areas include both subjective results and objective data.