Michael Lewis-Beck

Last updated
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Born
Michael Steven Lewis

(1943-10-29) October 29, 1943 (age 81)
NationalityAmerican
Alma mater Ball State University
University of Michigan
Known for Comparative politics
Political forecasting
Political methodology
Scientific career
Fields Political science
Institutions University of Iowa
Thesis Organizational innovation in a third world nation: hospitals in Peru  (1973)
Doctoral advisor Lawrence Mohr

Michael Steven Lewis-Beck (born October 29, 1943) [1] is an American political scientist and the F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. His research focuses on comparative politics, political forecasting, and political methodology.

Contents

Education and Career

Lewis-Beck earned a Bachelor of Arts with honors from Ball State University in 1965. [2] He also has a Master of Arts and a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. He earned his MA in August of 1966, taking a gap in studies through 1966 to 1968 to serve in the Peace Corps in Guatemala. He earned his Ph.D. five years later in December of 1973. [2]

Lewis-Beck maintains his status as Professor Emeritus at the University of Iowa since 2010. [2] As of November of 2024, he has over 32,000 citations on Google Scholar and has authored or co-authored over 330 articles and books. [3] [4]

He was formerly the editor-in-chief of the American Journal of Political Science from 1993 to 1994 and a past president of the Political Forecasting Group of the American Political Science Association. [4] [5] [6]

He was a visiting professor at Harvard University, University of London, GESIS-Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, University of Copenhagen, LUISS University, University of Leuven, Koc University, University of Siena, Italy, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, University of Manchester, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, University of Nantes, and Institut d’Etudes Politiques.

Media

Lewis-Beck has received media attention for his predictions of the results of United States presidential elections based on economic factors. [7] [8] [9] Lewis-Beck told ABC News that the economy is "always at or near the top of the average voter’s agenda." [10]

He predicted that George H. W. Bush would win the 1992 presidential election, that Bill Clinton would win in 1996, and that Al Gore would win easily in 2000, telling the Washington Post that May that "It's not even going to be close." [11] [12] After Gore lost the 2000 election, Lewis-Beck modified his model to take job growth during the incumbent president's previous four-year term into account. [8] He predicted in August 2004 that George W. Bush would receive 51% of the vote in that November's election, making it too close to call. [8] Using the "Jobs Model", a model based on Gross National Product and growth in jobs, Lewis-Beck predicted Barack Obama would lose the 2012 election. [13] [14] [15] In 2016, he correctly predicted a 51% two-party popular vote share for Hillary Clinton. [16] [17] [18] Using polls on voter expectations for the winning presidential candidate in the 2024 election, Lewis-Beck forecast a victory by Kamala Harris. [19]

Personal Life

Lewis-Beck resides in Iowa City, Iowa. [2]

Lewis-Beck is fluent in English, French, Spanish, and Italian. [2]

Lewis-Beck writes poetry, lyrics, fiction, and essays. [2] He has two books of poems, Rural Routes and Shorter and Sweeter published by Alexandria Quarterly Press. [20]

Books

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References

  1. ↑ "Lewis-Beck, Michael S." Library of Congress Name Authority File. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Michael Lewis-Beck | Political Science - College of Liberal Arts and Sciences | The University of Iowa". politicalscience.uiowa.edu. Retrieved 2024-11-18.
  3. ↑ "Michael S. Lewis-Beck". scholar.google.com. Retrieved 2024-11-18.
  4. 1 2 Lewis-Beck, Debra Leiter and Michael S. (2024-10-23). "Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved 2024-11-20.
  5. ↑ "Lewis-Beck, Michael". SAGE Publications Inc (in Hindi). 15 February 2019. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  6. ↑ "Past Editors". American Journal of Political Science. 21 May 2018. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  7. ↑ Rosenbaum, David E. (1 April 1996). "POLITICS: THE ECONOMY; Can the President Capitalize On the Economy's Strength?". The New York Times. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  8. 1 2 3 "Economic models predict Bush win - Aug. 23, 2004". CNN. 23 August 2004. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  9. ↑ Gerstenzang, James (23 November 2007). "The president's economic challenge". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  10. ↑ Butchireddygari, Likhitha (6 July 2020). ""Voters Who Think The Economy Is The Country's Biggest Problem Are Pretty Trumpy. That Might Not Help Him Much."". ABC News . Retrieved 19 November 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  11. ↑ Eisenhower, Karl (31 May 2000). "The Phony Science of Predicting Elections". Slate Magazine. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  12. ↑ Kettle, Martin (1 September 2000). "It's President Gore, agree statisticians". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 February 2019.
  13. ↑ Balz, Dan (29 September 2012). "Romney or Obama? Political scientists make their predictions". The Washington Post . Retrieved 19 November 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  14. ↑ Matthews, Dylan (31 August 2012). "Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all". The Washington Post . Retrieved 19 November 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  15. ↑ Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Tien, Charles (27 September 2012). "Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times". PS: Political Science & Politics. 45 (4): 625–629. doi:10.1017/S1049096512000893. ISSN   1049-0965.
  16. ↑ Matthews, Dylan (17 March 2020). ""Coronavirus and the 2020 election: A collapsing economy is a disaster for the incumbent"". Vox . Retrieved 19 November 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  17. ↑ Tien, Charles; Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (11 January 2017). "Evaluating the long-view forecasting models of the 2016 election". Oxford University Press . Retrieved 19 November 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  18. ↑ Prokop, Andrew (9 November 2016). ""Few predicted Trump had a good shot of winning. But political science models did."". Vox . Retrieved 19 November 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  19. ↑ Lewis-Beck, Debra Leiter and Michael S. (2024-10-23). "Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved 2024-11-20.
  20. ↑ "AQP PUBLICATIONS". ALEXANDRIA QUARTERLY. Retrieved 2024-11-20.


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