Nuclear utilization target selection

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Nuclear utilization target selection (NUTS) is a hypothesis regarding the use of nuclear weapons often contrasted with mutually assured destruction (MAD). [1] NUTS theory at its most basic level asserts that it is possible for a limited nuclear exchange to occur and that nuclear weapons are simply one more rung on the ladder of escalation pioneered by Herman Kahn. [2] [3] This leads to a number of other conclusions regarding the potential uses of and responses to nuclear weapons.

Contents

Counterforce strikes

A counterforce strike consists of an attack on enemy nuclear weapons meant to destroy them before they can be used. A viable first strike capability would require the ability to launch a 100-percent-effective (or nearly so) counterforce attack. Such an attack is made more difficult by systems such as early warning radars which allow the possibility for rapid recognition and response to a nuclear attack and by systems such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles or road-mobile nuclear missiles (such as the Soviet SS-20) which make nuclear weapons harder to locate and target.

Since a limited nuclear war is a viable option for a NUTS theorist, the power to unleash such attacks holds a great deal of appeal. However, establishing such a capability is very expensive. A counterforce weapon requires a much more accurate warhead than a countervalue weapon, as it must be guaranteed to detonate very close to its target, which drastically increases relative costs.

Limited countervalue strikes

Some NUTS theorists hold that a mutually assured destruction-type deterrent is not credible in cases of a small attack, such as one carried out on a single city, as it is suicidal. In such a case, an overwhelming nuclear response would destroy every enemy city and thus every potential hostage that could be used to influence the attacker's behavior. This would free up the attacker to launch further attacks and remove any chance for the attacked nation to bargain. A country adhering to a NUTS-style war plan would likely respond to such an attack with a limited attack on one or several enemy cities.

Missile defense

Since NUTS theory assumes the possibility of a winnable nuclear war, the contention of many MAD theorists that missile defense systems should be abandoned as a destabilizing influence is generally not accepted by NUTS theorists. For NUTS theorists, a missile defence system would be a positive force in that it would protect against a limited nuclear attack. Additionally, such a system would increase the odds of success for a counterforce attack by assuring that if some targets escaped the initial attack, the incoming missiles could be intercepted. But protection against a limited attack means that the opponent has incentive to launch a larger scale attack, against which the defence is likely to be ineffective. Additionally, increased possibility of success of counterforce attacks means that the opponent has the incentive to launch a preventive attack, which increases the risk of a large scale response to misinterpreted signals.

NUTS and US nuclear strategy

NUTS theory can be seen in the US adoption of a number of first-strike weapons, such as the Trident II and Minuteman III nuclear missiles, which both have an extremely low circular error probable (CEP) of about 90 meters for the former and 120 meters for the latter. [4] These weapons are accurate enough to almost certainly destroy a missile silo if it is targeted.

Additionally, the US has proceeded with a number of programs which improve its strategic situation in a nuclear confrontation. The Stealth bomber has the capacity to carry a large number of stealthy cruise missiles, which could be nuclear-tipped, and due to its low probability of detection and long range would be an excellent weapon with which to deliver a first strike. [5]

During the late 1970s and the 1980s, the Pentagon began to adopt strategies for limited nuclear options to make it possible to control escalation and reduce the risk of all-out nuclear war, hence accepting NUTS. In 1980, President Jimmy Carter signed Presidential Directive 59 which endorsed the NUTS strategic posture committed to fight and win a nuclear war, and accepted escalation dominance and flexible response. [6] The Soviets, however, were skeptical of limited options or the possibility of controlling escalation. While Soviet deterrence doctrine posited massive responses to any nuclear use ("all against any"), military officials considered the possibility of proportionate responses to a limited US attack, although they "doubted that nuclear war could remain limited for long." [7]

Like several other nuclear powers, but unlike China and India, the United States has never made a "no first use" pledge, maintaining that pledging not to use nuclear weapons before an opponent would undermine their deterrent. [8] NATO plans for war with the USSR called for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order to counter Soviet numerical superiority.

Rather than making extensive preparations for battlefield nuclear combat in Central Europe, the Soviet General Staff emphasized conventional military operations and believing that they had an advantage there. "The Soviet military leadership believed that conventional superiority provided the Warsaw Pact with the means to approximate the effects of nuclear weapons and achieve victory in Europe without resort to those weapons." [7]

In criticising US policy on nuclear weapons as contradictory, leftist philosopher Slavoj Zizek has suggested that NUTS is the policy of the US with respect to Iran and North Korea while its policy with respect to Russia and China is one of mutual assured destruction (MAD). [9]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nuclear warfare</span> Military conflict that deploys nuclear weaponry

Nuclear warfare, also known as atomic warfare, is a military conflict or prepared political strategy that deploys nuclear weaponry. Nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction; in contrast to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can produce destruction in a much shorter time and can have a long-lasting radiological result. A major nuclear exchange would likely have long-term effects, primarily from the fallout released, and could also lead to secondary effects, such as "nuclear winter", nuclear famine, and societal collapse. A global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to various scenarios including the human extinction.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">First strike (nuclear strategy)</span> Preemptive attack using nuclear weapons

In nuclear strategy, a first strike or preemptive strike is a preemptive surprise attack employing overwhelming force. First strike capability is a country's ability to defeat another nuclear power by destroying its arsenal to the point where the attacking country can survive the weakened retaliation while the opposing side is left unable to continue war. The preferred methodology is to attack the opponent's strategic nuclear weapon facilities, command and control sites, and storage depots first. The strategy is called counterforce.

In nuclear strategy, minimal deterrence, also known as minimum deterrence and finite deterrence, is an application of deterrence theory in which a state possesses no more nuclear weapons than is necessary to deter an adversary from attacking. Pure minimal deterrence is a doctrine of no first use, holding that the only mission of nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear adversary by making the cost of a first strike unacceptably high. To present a credible deterrent, there must be the assurance that any attack would trigger a retaliatory strike. In other words, minimal deterrence requires rejecting a counterforce strategy in favor of pursuing survivable force that can be used in a countervalue second strike.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mutual assured destruction</span> Doctrine of military strategy

Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. It is based on the theory of rational deterrence, which holds that the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy's use of those same weapons. The strategy is a form of Nash equilibrium in which, once armed, neither side has any incentive to initiate a conflict or to disarm.

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World War III, also known as the Third World War, is a hypothetical future global conflict subsequent to World War I (1914–1918) and World War II (1939–1945). It is widely assumed that such a war would involve all of the great powers, like its predecessors, as well as the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, thus surpassing prior conflicts in geographic scope, devastation, and loss of life.

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The LGM-118 Peacekeeper, originally known as the MX for "Missile, Experimental", was a MIRV-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) produced and deployed by the United States from 1985 to 2005. The missile could carry up to twelve Mark 21 reentry vehicles, each armed with a 300-kiloton W87 warhead. Initial plans called for building and deploying 100 MX ICBMs, but budgetary concerns limited the final procurement; only 50 entered service. Disarmament treaties signed after the Peacekeeper's development led to its withdrawal from service in 2005.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Brinkmanship</span> Political and military tactic

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Massive retaliation</span> Military doctrine focusing on using more force in retaliation to an attack

Massive retaliation, also known as a massive response or massive deterrence, is a military doctrine and nuclear strategy in which a state commits itself to retaliate in much greater force in the event of an attack. It is associated with the U.S. national security policy of the Eisenhower administration during the early stages of the Cold War.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Flexible response</span> Military strategy of the Kennedy administration

Flexible response was a defense strategy implemented by John F. Kennedy in 1961 to address the Kennedy administration's skepticism of Dwight Eisenhower's New Look and its policy of massive retaliation. Flexible response calls for mutual deterrence at strategic, tactical, and conventional levels, giving the United States the capability to respond to aggression across the spectrum of war, not limited only to nuclear arms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Second strike</span> Response to a powerful first nuclear strike

In nuclear strategy, a retaliatory strike or second-strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker. To have such an ability is considered vital in nuclear deterrence, as otherwise the other side might attempt to try to win a nuclear war in one massive first strike against its opponent's own nuclear forces.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Launch on warning</span> Nuclear strategy

Launch on warning (LOW), or fire on warning, is a strategy of nuclear weapon retaliation where a retaliatory strike is launched upon warning of enemy nuclear attack and while its missiles are still in the air, before detonation occurs. It gained recognition during the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States. With the invention of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), launch on warning became an integral part of mutually-assured destruction (MAD) theory. US land-based missiles can reportedly be launched within 5 minutes of a presidential decision to do so and submarine-based missiles within 15 minutes.

In nuclear strategy, countervalue is the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations. Counterforce is the targeting of an opponent's military forces and facilities. The Oxford English Dictionary, 2nd ed., records the first use of the word in 1660 and the first use in the modern sense in 1965 in which it is described as a "euphemism for attacking cities".

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Dead Hand, also known as Perimeter, is a Cold War–era automatic nuclear weapons control system that was constructed by the Soviet Union. The system remains in use in the post-Soviet Russian Federation. An example of fail-deadly and mutual assured destruction deterrence, it can automatically initiate the launch of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by sending a pre-entered highest-authority order from the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Strategic Missile Force Management to command posts and individual silos if a nuclear strike is detected by seismic, light, radioactivity, and pressure sensors even with the commanding elements fully destroyed. By most accounts, it is normally switched off and is supposed to be activated during times of crisis; however, as of 2009, it was said to remain fully functional and able to serve its purpose when needed.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">William Kaufmann</span> American nuclear strategist (1918–2008)

William Weed Kaufmann was an American nuclear strategist and adviser to seven defense secretaries, who advocated for a shift from the strategy of massive retaliation against the Soviet Union in the event of a nuclear strike.

In nuclear strategy, a counterforce target is one that has a military value, such as a launch silo for intercontinental ballistic missiles, an airbase at which nuclear-armed bombers are stationed, a homeport for ballistic missile submarines, or a command and control installation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2K1 Mars</span> Artillery rocket system

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References

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  2. "Magellan's Log: Herman Kahn: Escalation Ladder". Archived from the original on 13 January 2013.
  3. Morehead, Joe (1986). Essays on Public Documents and Government Policies. Haworth Press. p. 100. ISBN   0-86656-248-6.
  4. "MissileThreat :: Ballistic Missiles of the World". Archived from the original on 2008-07-08. Retrieved 2008-06-30.
  5. "Peace Magazine v06n3p24: Hidden Capabilities of B-2 Stealth Bomber Threaten START Talks". archive.peacemagazine.org. Retrieved 2016-10-03.
  6. Amadae, S.M. (2016). Prisoners of Reason. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 105–111. ISBN   9-781107-064034.
  7. 1 2 "Candid Interviews with Former Soviet Officials Reveal U.S. Strategic Intelligence Failure Over Decades". www.gwu.edu. Retrieved 2016-10-03.
  8. Amadae, S.M. (2016). Prisoners of Reason. New York: Cambridge University Press. p. 21. ISBN   9-781107-064034.
  9. "The US is pursuing two contradictory strategies with North Korea and it could lead to nuclear war". Independent.co.uk . 28 December 2017.