Oil shale economics

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Oil shale economics deals with the economic feasibility of oil shale extraction and processing. Although usually oil shale economics is understood as shale oil extraction economics, the wider approach evaluates usage of oil shale as a whole, including for the oil-shale-fired power generation and production of by-products during retorting or shale oil upgrading processes. [1]

Contents

The economic feasibility of oil shale is highly dependent on the price of conventional oil, and the assumption that the price will remain at a certain level for some time to come. As a developing fuel source the production and processing costs for oil shale are high due to the small nature of the projects and the specialist technology involved. A full-scale project to develop oil shale would require heavy investment and could potentially leave businesses vulnerable should the oil price drop and the cost of producing the oil would exceed the price they could obtain for the oil.

Due to the volatile prices and high capital costs few deposits can be exploited economically without subsidies. However, some countries, such as Estonia, Brazil, and China, operate oil-shale industries, while some others, including Australia, United States, Canada, Jordan, Israel, and Egypt, are contemplating establishing or re-establishing this industry. [2] [3]

The production cost of a barrel of shale oil ranges from as high as US$95 per barrel to as low US$25 per barrel, although there is no recent confirmation of the latter figure. [4] The industry is proceeding cautiously, due to the losses incurred during the last major investment into oil shale in the early 1980s, when a subsequent collapse in the oil price left the projects uneconomic. [5]

Break-even price of crude oil

Real and Nominal Oil Prices, 1980-2008 Inflacrude.gif
Real and Nominal Oil Prices, 1980-2008

The various attempts to develop oil shale deposits have succeeded only when the cost of shale-oil production in a given region comes in below the price of crude oil or its other substitutes (break-even price). The United States Department of Energy estimates that the ex-situ processing would be economic at sustained average world oil prices above US$54 per barrel and in-situ processing would be economic at prices above $35 per barrel. These estimates assume a return rate of 15%. [6] The International Energy Agency estimates, based on the various pilot projects, that investment and operating costs would be similar to those of Canadian oil sands, that means would be economic at prices above $60 per barrel at current costs. This figure does not account carbon pricing, which will add additional cost. [4] According to the New Policies Scenario introduced in its World Energy Outlook 2010, a price of $50 per tonne of emitted CO2, expected by 2035, will add additional $7.50 per barrel cost of shale oil. [4]

According to a survey conducted by the RAND Corporation, the cost of producing a barrel of oil at a surface retorting complex in the United States (comprising a mine, retorting plant, upgrading plant, supporting utilities, and spent shale reclamation), would range between $70–95 ($440–600/m3, adjusted to 2005 values). This estimate considers varying levels of kerogen quality and extraction efficiency. In order for the operation to be profitable, the price of crude oil would need to remain above these levels. The analysis also discusses the expectation that processing costs would drop after the complex was established. The hypothetical unit would see a cost reduction of 35–70% after its first 500 million barrels (79×10^6 m3) were produced. Assuming an increase in output of 25 thousand barrels per day (4.0×10^3 m3/d) during each year after the start of commercial production, the costs would then be expected to decline to $35–48 per barrel ($220–300/m3) within 12 years. After achieving the milestone of 1 billion barrels (160×10^6 m3), its costs would decline further to $30–40 per barrel ($190–250/m3). [1] [7]

In 2005, Royal Dutch Shell announced that its in situ extraction technology could become competitive at prices over $30 per barrel ($190/m3). [8] However, Shell reported in 2007 that the cost of creating an underground freeze wall to contain groundwater contamination had significantly escalated. [9] Anyway, as the commercial scale production by Shell is not foreseen until 2025, the real price needed to make production economic remains unclear. [4]

At full-scale production, the production costs for one barrel of light crude oil of the Australia's Stuart plant were projected to be in the range of $11.3 to $12.4 per barrel, including capital costs and operation costs over a projected 30-year lifetime. However, the project has been suspended due to environmental concerns. [1] [10]

The project of a new Alberta Taciuk Processor which was planned by VKG Oil, was estimated to achieve break-even financial feasibility operating at 30% capacity, assuming a crude oil price of $21 per barrel or higher. At 50% utilization, the project was expected to be economic at a price of $18 per barrel, while at full capacity, it could be economic at a price of $13 per barrel. [11] However, instead of Alberta Taciuk Processor VKG proceeded with a Petroter retort which production price level is not disclosed. [12] Production costs in China have been reported to be as low as less than $25 per barrel, although there is no recent confirmation of this figure. [4]

Capital cost

A comparison of the proposed American oil shale industry to the Alberta oil-sands industry has been drawn (the latter enterprise generated over 1 million barrels per day (160×10^3 m3/d) of oil in late 2007), stating that "the first-generation facility is the hardest, both technically and economically". [13] [14] According to the United States Department of Energy, in 1980s the costs of a 100,000 barrels per day (16,000 m3/d)ex-situ processing complex ranged from $8–12 billion at 2005 prices. It is estimated that the current capital costs are $3–10 billion at 2005 prices. [6]

The new 100,000 tonnes shale oil per year retort built by VKG cost EEK 1.1 billion (€70.3 million); however, it is located in the existing production site and uses the existing infrastructure. [12]

The RAND Corporation assumes that the development of 100,000 barrels per day (16,000 m3/d) processing plant in the United States will take 12 years, while to achieve the level of 1 million barrels per day (160×10^3 m3/d) will take at least 20 years and 3 million barrels per day (480×10^3 m3/d) around 30 years. [1] [7]

Previous investment

In the second half of the 20th century, oil shale production ceased in Canada, Scotland, Sweden, France, Australia, Romania, and South Africa due to the low price of oil and other competitive fuels. [15] In the United States, during the 1973 oil crisis businesses expected oil prices to stay as high as US$70 a barrel, and invested considerable sums in the oil shale industry. World production of oil shale reached a peak of 46 million tonnes in 1980. [15] Due to competition from cheap conventional petroleum in the 1980s, several investments became economically unfeasible. [15] [16] On 2 May 1982, known as "Black Sunday", Exxon canceled its US$5 billion Colony Shale Oil Project near Parachute, Colorado because of low oil-prices and increased expenses. [17] Because of the losses in 1980s, companies were reluctant to make new invests in shale oil production. However, in the early 21st century, USA, Canada and Jordan were planning or had started shale oil production test projects, and Australia was considering restarting oil shale production. [15] [18]

In a 1972 publication by the journal Pétrole Informations (ISSN 0755-561X), shale oil production was unfavorably compared to the liquefaction of coal. The article stated that coal liquefaction was less expensive, generated more oil, and created fewer environmental impacts than oil shale extraction. It cited a conversion ratio of 650 liters (170 U.S. gal; 140 imp gal) of oil per one ton of coal, as against 150 liters (40 U.S. gal) per one ton of shale oil. [19]

Energy usage

A measure of the viability of oil shale as a fuel source is the ratio of the energy produced to the energy used converting it (Energy Returned on Energy Invested - EROEI). The value of the EROEI for oil shale is difficult to calculate for a number of reasons. Lack of reliable studies of modern oil shale processes, poor or undocumented methodology and a limited number of operational facilities are the main reasons. [20] Due to technically more complex processes, the EROEI for oil shale is below the EROEI of about 20:1 for conventional oil extraction at the wellhead. [20]

A 1984 study estimated the EROEI of the different oil shale deposits to vary between 0.7–13.3:1. [21] More recent studies estimates the EROEI of oil shales to be 1–2:1 or 2–16:1 – depending on if self-energy is counted as a cost or internal energy is excluded and only purchased energy is counted as input. [20] [22] According to the World Energy Outlook 2010, the EROEI of ex-situ processing is typically 4–5:1 while of in-situ processing it may be even as low as 2:1. [4] Royal Dutch Shell has reported an expected EROEI about 3–4:1 on its in-situ test project. [8] [23] [24]

Internal energy (or self-energy) is energy released by the oil shale conversion process that is used to power that operation (e.g. obtained by combustion of conversion by-products such as oil shale gas), and therefore reducing the use of other fuels (external energy). [20] There are different views as to if the internal energy should be added to the calculation as cost or not. One opinion is that internal energy should not be counted as an energy cost because it does not have an opportunity cost, unlike external energy used in the process. Another opinion is that internal energy is used for performing useful work and therefore should be added to the calculation. [20] It might also be argued that internal energy should be included as energy invested because it contributes to CO2 emissions. [20] [22] However, EROEI then becomes a measure of environmental acceptability rather than economic viability.

Water usage

Development of oil shale resources will require significant quantities of water for mine and plant operations, reclamation, supporting infrastructure, and associated economic growth. Above-ground retorting typically consumes between one and five barrels of water per barrel of produced shale oil, depending on technology. [7] [25] [26] [27] For an oil shale industry producing 2.5 million barrels per day (400×10^3 m3/d), this equates to 105,000,000–315,000,000 US gallons per day (400,000–1,190,000 m3/d) of water. These numbers include water requirements for power generation for in-situ heating processes, retorting, refining, reclamation, dust control and on-site worker demands. Municipal and other water requirements related to population growth associated with industry development will require an additional 58 million US gallons (220,000 m3) per day. Hence, a 2.5 million barrels per day (400×10^3 m3/d) oil shale industry would require 180,000 to 420,000 acre-feet (220,000,000 to 520,000,000 m3) of water per year, depending on location and processes used. [28]

The largest deposit of oil shale in the United States is in the Green River basin. Though scarce, water in the western United States is treated as a commodity which can be bought and sold in a competitive market. [28] Royal Dutch Shell has been reported to be buying groundwater rights in Colorado as it prepares to drill for oil in the shale deposits there. [29] In the Colorado Big-Thompson project, average prices per share (0.7 acre-feet (860 m3)/share) increased from some $2,000 in 1990 to more than $12,000 in mid-2003 (constant 2001 dollars). [30] CBT Prices from 2001 to 2006 has had a range of $10,000 to $14,000 per share, or $14,000 to $20,000 per acre foot. [31] At $10,000 per acre foot, capital costs for water rights to produce 2.5 million barrels per day (400×10^3 m3/d) would range between $1.8-4.2 billion.

Co-pyrolysis

Several co-pyrolysis processes to increase efficiency of oil shale retorting have been proposed or tested. In Estonia, the co-pyrolysis of kukersite with renewable fuel (wood waste), as well as with plastic and rubber wastes (tyres), has been tested. [32] Co-pyrolysis of oil shale with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) has been tested also in Morocco and Turkey. [33] [34] Israel's AFSK Hom Tov co-pyrolyses oil shale with oil refinery residue (bitumen). Some tests involve co-pyrolysis of oil shale with lignite and cellulose wastes. Depending on reaction conditions, the co-pyrolysis may lead to higher conversion ratios and thus lower production costs, and in some cases solves the problem of utilization of certain wastes. [32]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Oil shale</span> Organic-rich fine-grained sedimentary rock containing kerogen

Oil shale is an organic-rich fine-grained sedimentary rock containing kerogen from which liquid hydrocarbons can be produced. In addition to kerogen, general composition of oil shales constitutes inorganic substance and bitumens. Based on their deposition environment, oil shales are classified as marine, lacustrine and terrestrial oil shales. Oil shales differ from oil-bearing shales, shale deposits that contain petroleum that is sometimes produced from drilled wells. Examples of oil-bearing shales are the Bakken Formation, Pierre Shale, Niobrara Formation, and Eagle Ford Formation. Accordingly, shale oil produced from oil shale should not be confused with tight oil, which is also frequently called shale oil.

Shale oil is an unconventional oil produced from oil shale rock fragments by pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution. These processes convert the organic matter within the rock (kerogen) into synthetic oil and gas. The resulting oil can be used immediately as a fuel or upgraded to meet refinery feedstock specifications by adding hydrogen and removing impurities such as sulfur and nitrogen. The refined products can be used for the same purposes as those derived from crude oil.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Shell in situ conversion process</span>

The Shell in situ conversion process is an in situ shale oil extraction technology to convert kerogen in oil shale to shale oil. It is developed by the Shell Oil Company.

Viru Keemia Grupp (VKG) is an Estonian holding group of oil shale industry, power generation, and public utility companies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Oil shale industry</span> Resource extraction industry

The oil shale industry is an industry of mining and processing of oil shale—a fine-grained sedimentary rock, containing significant amounts of kerogen, from which liquid hydrocarbons can be manufactured. The industry has developed in Brazil, China, Estonia and to some extent in Germany and Russia. Several other countries are currently conducting research on their oil shale reserves and production methods to improve efficiency and recovery. Estonia accounted for about 70% of the world's oil shale production in a study published in 2005.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Shale oil extraction</span> Process for extracting oil from oil shale

Shale oil extraction is an industrial process for unconventional oil production. This process converts kerogen in oil shale into shale oil by pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution. The resultant shale oil is used as fuel oil or upgraded to meet refinery feedstock specifications by adding hydrogen and removing sulfur and nitrogen impurities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Environmental impact of the oil shale industry</span>

Environmental impact of the oil shale industry includes the consideration of issues such as land use, waste management, and water and air pollution caused by the extraction and processing of oil shale. Surface mining of oil shale deposits causes the usual environmental impacts of open-pit mining. In addition, the combustion and thermal processing generate waste material, which must be disposed of, and harmful atmospheric emissions, including carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas. Experimental in-situ conversion processes and carbon capture and storage technologies may reduce some of these concerns in future, but may raise others, such as the pollution of groundwater.

The Stuart Oil Shale Project is an oil shale development project in Yarwun near Gladstone, Queensland, Australia. It is Australia's first major attempt since the 1950s to restart commercial use of oil shale. The project was originally developed by Australian companies Southern Pacific Petroleum NL and Central Pacific Minerals NL (SPP/CPM) and developed now by Queensland Energy Resources. The original facility built at the end of the 1990s was dismantled and the new demonstration facility started its operations in 2011.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of the oil shale industry</span> Timeline of the production of oil shale

The history of the oil shale industry started in ancient times. The modern industrial use of oil shale for oil extraction dates to the mid-19th century and started growing just before World War I because of the mass production of automobiles and trucks and the supposed shortage of gasoline for transportation needs. Between the World Wars oil shale projects were begun in several countries.

Oil shale gas is a synthetic non-condensable gas mixture (syngas) produced by oil shale thermal processing (pyrolysis). Although often referred to as shale gas, it differs from the natural gas produced from shale, which is also known as shale gas.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Oil shale in Jordan</span> Overview of the industry in Jordan

Oil shale in Jordan represents a significant resource. Oil shale deposits in Jordan underlie more than 60% of Jordanian territory. The total resources amounts to 31 billion tonnes of oil shale.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Oil shale in Estonia</span> Overview of the industry in Estonia

There are two kinds of oil shale in Estonia, both of which are sedimentary rocks laid down during the Ordovician geologic period. Graptolitic argillite is the larger oil shale resource, but, because its organic matter content is relatively low, it is not used industrially. The other is kukersite, which has been mined for more than a hundred years. Kukersite deposits in Estonia account for 1% of global oil shale deposits.

The Kiviter process is an above ground retorting technology for shale oil extraction.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Galoter process</span> Shale oil extraction technology

The Galoter process is a shale oil extraction technology for the production of shale oil, a type of synthetic crude oil. In this process, the oil shale is decomposed into shale oil, oil shale gas, and spent residue. Decomposition is caused by mixing raw oil shale with hot oil shale ash generated by the combustion of carbonaceous residue (semi-coke) in the spent residue. The process was developed in the 1950s, and it is used commercially for shale oil production in Estonia. There are projects for further development of this technology and expansion of its usage, e.g., in Jordan and the USA.

The Alberta Taciuk process is an above-ground dry thermal retorting technology for extracting oil from oil sands, oil shale and other organics-bearing materials, including oil contaminated soils, sludges and wastes. The technology is named after its inventor William Taciuk and the Alberta Oil Sands Technology and Research Authority.

The Fushun process is an above-ground retorting technology for shale oil extraction. It is named after the main production site of Fushun, Liaoning province in northeastern China.

The Union process was an above ground shale oil extraction technology for production of shale oil, a type of synthetic crude oil. The process used a vertical retort where heating causes decomposition of oil shale into shale oil, oil shale gas and spent residue. The particularity of this process is that oil shale in the retort moves from the bottom upward to the top, countercurrent to the descending hot gases, by a mechanism known as a rock pump. The process technology was invented by the American oil company Unocal Corporation in late 1940s and was developed through several decades. The largest oil shale retort ever built was the Union B type retort.

Oil shale in Serbia is a large, but undeveloped energy resource. Serbia is estimated to have a total resource of 4.81 billion tonnes of oil shale, with up to 3.6 billion tonnes of recoverable reserves, all concentrated within the Aleksinac, Vranje, Senonian Tectonic Trench, Valjevo, Western Morava, Kruševac, Babušnica, Kosanica, Niš and Levač basins, which are all located in the Central - Eastern part of the country. Serbia has around 21 oil shale deposits of various qualities and oil content. The biggest deposits of commercial potential are near Aleksinac and Vina-Zubetin. Serbian oil shale is of sapropel type and sapropel-coaly type.

Oil shale in Morocco represents a significant potential resource. The ten known oil shale deposits in Morocco contain over 53.381 billion barrels of shale oil. Although Moroccan oil shale has been studied since the 1930s and several pilot plants have extracted shale oil from the local formations, commercial extraction was not underway as of 2011.

References

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